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Background: A recent cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) study evaluated the widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Incorporating this behaviour modification intervention, comprising educational sessions on nutrition/lifestyle and support for regular patient visits, to the current CKD guideline-based practice was found to be cost-effective. This study aimed to examine the affordability of this efficient new practice under the hypothesis that the behaviour modification intervention would be initiated by general physicians (GPs). Methods: A budget impact analysis was conducted by defining the target population as patients aged 40–74 years with stage-3–5 CKD based on the prevalence of definitive CKD in the Japanese general population. Costs expended by social insurers without discount were counted as budgets. We estimated the annual budget impact for 15 years by running our CEA model, assuming that it would be good for the span. Results: We estimated the number of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) to decrease by 4,496 in the fifteenth year of the new practice using our CEA model. Compared to that in the current practice, the budget impact as total additional expenditure of the new practice was estimated to be negative by the tenth year in the base case. Conclusions: The widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention would contain public health care expenditure over the mid-to-long term, resulting from a reduction in progression to ESKD. We suggest that providing sufficient economic incentives to GPs and strengthening recommendations in CKD guidelines would realise effective GP-initiated interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Disease-specific trajectories of renal function in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not well defined. Here, we compared these trajectories in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by CKD stages. Methods: Patients with multiple eGFR measurements during the 5-year preregistration period of the REACH-J study were enrolled. Mean annual eGFR declines were calculated from linear mixed effect models with the adjustment variables of baseline CKD stage, age, sex and the current CKD stage and the level of proteinuria (CKDA1-3). Results: Among 1,969 eligible patients with CKDG3b-5, the adjusted eGFR decline (ml/min/1.73 m2/year) was significantly faster in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients and polycystic kidney disease (PKD) patients than in patients with other kidney diseases (DKD, − 2.96 ± 0.13; PKD, − 2.82 ± 0.17; and others, − 1.95 ± 0.05, p < 0.01). The declines were faster with higher CKD stages. In DKD patients, the eGFR decline was significantly faster in CKDG5 than CKDG4 (− 4.10 ± 0.18 vs − 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01), while these declines in PKD patients were similar. The eGFR declines in PKD patients were significantly faster than DKD patients in CKDG4 (− 2.92 ± 0.23 vs − 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01) and in CKDA2 (− 3.36 ± 0.35 vs − 1.40 ± 0.26, p < 0.01). Conclusion: Our study revealed the disease-specific annual eGFR declines by CKD stages and the level of proteinuria. Comparing to the other kidney diseases, the declines in PKD patients were getting faster from early stages of CKD. These results suggest the importance of CKD managements in PKD patients from the early stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The appropriate blood pressure target to prevent end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is controversial. Methods: We examined the association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) changes and ESRD incidence in 69,575 participants from the Okinawa general population aged ≥ 20 years who underwent health check-ups in 1993 and more than once in 1994–1996. ESRD incidence was identified using dialysis registry until 2011. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) with confounding factor adjustment. Results: At baseline, 29.9%, 22.1%, 20.6%, and 27.5% of subjects had SBP < 120, 120–129, 130–139, and ≥ 140 mmHg, respectively. Only 405 subjects developed ESRD. After 1 year, SBP was lowered, unchanged, and elevated in 20.8%, 54.3%, and 24.9% of subjects, respectively. Compared to the subjects with SBP < 120 mmHg both at baseline and the second measurement, there was no significant risk of ESRD in those who had SBP < 130 mmHg both at baseline and 1–3 years and or those with baseline SBP 130–139 mmHg and 1- to 3-year SBP < 140 mmHg. Subjects with baseline SBP 120–129 mmHg and 1- and 2-year SBP ≥ 130 mmHg were not significant (1.51 [0.86–2.66] and 1.73 [0.95–3.15], respectively) but 3-year SBP ≥ 130 mmHg had a significant ESRD risk (2.37 [1.23–4.56]). Subjects with baseline SBP ≥ 130 mmHg and 1- to 3-year SBP ≥ 140 mmHg had significant ESRD risk. Conclusion: Subjects with SBP < 130 mmHg at baseline and 1–3 years showed no significant risk of developing ESRD, in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Because of the necessity for extended period and large costs until the event occurs, surrogate endpoints are indispensable for implementation of clinical studies to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients’ prognosis.Methods: Subjects with serum creatinine level for a baseline period over 1-3 years were enrolled (n = 69,238) in this community-based prospective cohort study in Okinawa, Japan, and followed up for 15 years. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The percent of estimated glomerular filtration rate (%eGFR) change was calculated on the basis of the baseline period.Results: Subjects had a mean ± SD age, 55.59 ± 14.69 years; eGFR, 80.15 ± 21.15 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among the subjects recruited, 15.81% had a low eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73 m2) and 36.1/100,000 person years developed ESRD. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline characteristics showed that the risk of ESRD tended to be high with high rates of decrease in %eGFR changes over 2 or 3 years in the high- and low-eGFR groups. The specificities and positive predictive values for ESRD based on a cutoff value of %eGFR change of less than −30% over 2 or 3 years were high in the high- and low-eGFR groups.Conclusions: %eGFR change tends to be associated with the risk of ESRD. %eGFR change of less than −30% over 2 or 3 years can be a candidate surrogate endpoint for ESRD in the general Japanese population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body mass index (BMI) is a significant predictor of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The relation between a change in BMI (ΔBMI) and the incidence of ESRD has not been examined in any large epidemiologic studies. We determined the ΔBMI in subjects who participated in the Okinawa General Health Maintenance Association (OGHMA) screenings in 1983 and again in 1993. Screenees were free of ESRD at the 1993 screening and were then monitored until the end of 2000 to determine whether they developed ESRD. Participants were identified using ID numbers, birthdates, and other identifiers. Details of every ESRD patient treated in Okinawa are maintained in an independent community-based dialysis registry. Multivariate logistic analyses were performed to determine the significance of a ΔBMI on the incidence of ESRD using SAS. The ethics committee of the OGHMA approved the study protocol. Only coded data were used for this study. Among the 92,364 subjects aged 30–89 years screened in 1983, 29,011 (31.4%) returned for the 1993 screening. The median ΔBMI was 2.1%, and the subjects were divided into two groups: ΔBMI < 2.1% (G1) and ΔBMI ≥ 2.1% (G2). The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 0.31% in G1 (ESRD in 44) and 0.14% in G2 (ESRD in 21). The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of developing ESRD based on a ΔBMI was 2.268 (1.284–4.000, P < 0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, BMI in 1983, and proteinuria. The findings of the present study suggest that a ΔBMI is an independent risk factor for the incidence of ESRD, especially for those with proteinuria. The reasons for the BMI change were not recorded in this study. Unintentional weight loss, however, might warrant evaluation for the presence or progression of chronic kidney disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Disturbances in lipid metabolism are often observed in patients with renal failure and could be a risk factor for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, few studies have examined abnormal lipid metabolism as a risk factor for the development of ESRD in the general population. Methods. We examined the cumulative incidence of ESRD based on the results of a community-based mass screening in Okinawa, Japan, which was conducted in 1993 by the Okinawa General Health Maintenance Association. Screenees who developed ESRD by the end of 2000 were identified through the Okinawa Dialysis Study registry. Results. Total cholesterol (TC) data were available for 133338 (92.6%) of the total 143948 screenees) and triglyceride (TG) data were available for 132094 (91.8%). Dyslipidemia was defined as TC ≥ 220 mg/dl or TG ≥ 150 mg/dl. The cumulative incidences of FSRD, per 1000 screenees, were 1.12 for those without dyslipidemia and 2.53 for those with dyslipidemia. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for dyslipidemia was 0.856 (0.484-1.516) for men and 1.260 (0.661-2.400) for women; neither was significant when adjustment was made for age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, creatinine clearance, diabetes mellitus, and proteinuria. Conclusions. The present study showed dyslipidemia to he an insignificant predictor of development of ESRD in the general Okinawa population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The number of diabetic dialysis patients is increasing worldwide. Only a few studies, however, have examined the effect of diabetes mellitus (DM) as a risk factor for the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the general population. Methods. We examined the cumulative incidence of ESRD based on the results of community-based mass screening in Okinawa, Japan, performed in 1993 by the Okinawa General Health Maintenance Association. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) data were available for 78529 screenees (37197 men and 41332 women). DM was diagnosed when the FPG was 126mg/dl or more. Screenees who developed ESRD by the end of 2000 were identified through the Dialysis Registry, Okinawa Dialysis Study. Results. The mean (SD) FPG was 96.5 (22.8) mg/dl, ranging from 45 to 577 mg/dl. The prevalence of DM among the screenees was 4089 (5.2%). A total a 133 screenees (82 men and 51 women) developed ESRD during the 7.75-year study period. The adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval [C]) in the high-FPG group for the risk of developing FSRD was 3.098 (95% CI, 1.738–5.525; P = 0.0001), when adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol, triglyceride, hematocrit, serum creatinine, hematuria, and proteinuria. Conclusions. The results of the present study indicated that FPG is a significant, independent predictor of ESRD. FPG and proteinuria measurements are euqally important in detecting individuals at high risk for developing ESRD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Proteinuria is known to be an independent risk factor of end‐stage renal disease (ESRD). But the associations between changes in dipstick proteinuria and the risk of ESRD in the general population and its appropriate observation period to predict incident ESRD are unknown. Methods: We assessed the changes in dipstick proteinuria in 69 021 participants aged ≥20 years who participated in health check‐ups from 1993 and more than once until 1996 in Okinawa, Japan. Development of ESRD until 2011 was identified using dialysis registry. Cox proportional hazards model and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used. Results: At baseline, proteinuria (±) and ≥(1+) were observed in 2.4% and 1.2% of total subjects. 1.5% of subjects had decreased and 9.4% of subjects had increased their proteinuria level after 2 years. After adjustment for confounding factors, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of ESRD for subjects with proteinuria change ≤ − 1, +1, +2, +3, and +4 level during 2 years compared to subjects with no change were 0.89 (0.43–1.87), 3.18 (2.21–4.60), 8.01 (5.55–11.55), 11.17 (6.59–19.95), and 16.59 (5.95–46.25), respectively. Heterogeneity existed between changes in proteinuria level during 1 or 3 years and the risk of ESRD among baseline proteinuria. Area under the ROC curve (95%CI) to predict ESRD by increase in proteinuria level during 1, 2, and 3 years were 0.650 (0.623–0.679), 0.779 (0.751–0.808), and 0.778 (0.748–0.808), respectively. Conclusions: The changes in dipstick proteinuria were an independent predictor of ESRD in the general population. Changes in proteinuria over 2 years may be appropriate for the risk prediction of ESRD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proteinuria and the risk of developing end-stage renal disease. Background. Dipstick urinalysis for proteinuria and hematuria has been used to screen renal disease, but evidence of the clinical impact of this test on development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is lacking. Methods. We assessed development of ESRD through 2000 in 106,177 screened patients (50,584 men and 55,593 women), 20 to 98 years old, in Okinawa, Japan, who participated in community-based mass screening between April 1983 and March 1984. We used data from the Okinawa Dialysis Study Registry to identify ESRD patients. Multivariate logistic analyses were performed to calculate adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the significance of proteinuria and hematuria on the risk of developing ESRD with confounding variables such as age, gender, blood pressure, and body mass index. A similar analysis was repeated in a subgroup of screened patients in whom serum creatinine data existed. Results. During 17 years of follow-up, 420 screened persons (246 men and 174 women) entered the ESRD program. We identified a strong, graded relationship between ESRD and dipstick urinalysis positive for proteinuria; adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) was 2.71 (2.51 to 2.92, P < 0.001). Similar trends were observed after adding serum creatinine data. Compared with dipstick-negative proteinuria, adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of proteinuria (1+) was 1.93 (1.53 to 2.41, P < 0.001) in men and 2.42 (1.91 to 3.06, P < 0.001) in women. Conclusion. Proteinuria was a strong, independent predictor of ESRD in a mass screening setting. Even a slight increase in proteinuria was an independent risk factor for ESRD. Therefore, asymptomatic proteinuria warrants further work-up and intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic trends in the Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry (1971–2000).. Background: The clinical demographics of chronic dialysis patients are changing worldwide. However, long-term data from regional dialysis registries have not yet been analyzed and reported. Methods: The Okinawa Dialysis Study (OKIDS) registry included all chronic dialysis patients treated in Okinawa, Japan, since 1971. Data for the years 1971 to 1990 were analyzed to predict trends for 1991 to 2000. The predicted values were then compared to the actual values and analyzed statistically, with particular attention being paid to relative risk of death. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was done to analyze the time factors of relative risk of death. Results: A total of 5246 patients (2981 men and 2265 women) were registered and the total duration of observation was 28,431 patient-years. The prevalence and incidence of dialysis patients expressed per million population were 2320 and 297, respectively, in 2000, values that were significantly higher (P < 0.02 for both) than the predicted values. The gross mortality rate per 1000 patient-years was 118.4 for 1971 to 1980, 63.3 for 1981 to 1990, and 77.7 for 1991 to 2000. The adjusted hazards ratio (95% confidence interval) for mortality was 0.743 (0.650 to 0.862) for 1981–1990 and 0.721 (0.659 to 0.790) for 1991 to 2000 in comparison to the risk of mortality in 1971 to 1980. The decrease in mortality rate was largely due to the drop in cardiac deaths from 71.0 for 1971 to 1980 to 17.2 for 1991 to 2000. Conclusions: The incidence and prevalence of chronic dialysis patients increased more than expected over the past decade in Okinawa, Japan. Despite the rapid change in patient demographics, the survival rate did not decrease significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]