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Climate change raises an old disease to a new level of public health threat. The causative agent, Vibrio cholerae , native to aquatic ecosystems, is influenced by climate and weather processes. The risk of cholera is elevated in vulnerable populations lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. Predictive intelligence, employing mathematical algorithms that integrate earth observations and heuristics derived from microbiological, sociological, and weather data, can provide anticipatory decision-making capabilities to reduce the burden of cholera and save human lives. An example offered here is the recent outbreak of cholera in Malawi, predicted in advance by such algorithms., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

In 2022, one of its worst cholera outbreaks began in Bangladesh and the icddr,b Dhaka hospital treated more than 1300 patients and ca. 42,000 diarrheal cases from March-1 to April-10, 2022 1 . Here, we present genomic attributes of V. cholerae O1 responsible for the 2022 Dhaka outbreak and 960 7th pandemic El Tor (7PET) strains from 88 countries. Results show strains isolated during the Dhaka outbreak cluster with 7PET wave-3 global clade strains, but comprise subclade BD-1.2, for which the most recent common ancestor appears to be that responsible for recent endemic cholera in India. BD-1.2 strains are present in Bangladesh since 2016, but not establishing dominance over BD-2 lineage strains 2 until 2018 and predominantly associated with endemic cholera. In conclusion, the recent shift in lineage and genetic attributes, including serotype switching of BD-1.2 from Ogawa to Inaba, may explain the increasing number of cholera cases in Bangladesh., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Cholera remains a global public health threat in regions where social vulnerabilities intersect with climate and weather processes that impact infectious Vibrio cholerae. While access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities limit cholera outbreaks, sheer cost of building such infrastructure limits the ability to safeguard the population. Here, using Yemen as an example where cholera outbreak was reported in 2016, we show how predictive abilities for forecasting risk, employing sociodemographical, microbiological, and climate information of cholera, can aid in combating disease outbreak. An epidemiological analysis using Bradford Hill Criteria was employed in near-real-time to understand a predictive model's outputs and cholera cases in Yemen. We note that the model predicted cholera risk at least four weeks in advance for all governorates of Yemen with overall 72% accuracy (varies with the year). We argue the development of anticipatory decision-making frameworks for climate modulated diseases to design intervention activities and limit exposure of pathogens preemptively., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor, causative agent of the ongoing seventh cholera pandemic, is native to the aquatic environment of the Ganges Delta, Bay of Bengal (GDBB). Recent studies traced pandemic strains to the GDBB and proposed global spread of cholera had occurred via intercontinental transmission. In the research presented here, NotI-digested genomic DNA extracted from V. cholerae O1 clinical and environmental strains isolated in Bangladesh during 20042014 was analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Results of cluster analysis showed 94.67% of the V. cholerae strains belonged to clade A and included the majority of clinical strains of spatio-temporal origin and representing different cholera endemic foci. The rest of the strains were estuarine, all environmental strains from Mathbaria, Bangladesh, and occurred as singletons, clustered in clades B and C, or in the small clades D and E. Cluster analysis of the Bangladeshi strains and including 157 El Tor strains from thirteen countries in Asia, Africa, and the Americas revealed 85% of the total set of strains belonged to clade A, indicating all were related, yet did not form an homogeneous cluster. Overall, 15% of the global strains comprised multiple small clades or segregated as singletons. Three sub-clades could be discerned within the major clade A, reflecting distinct lineages of V. cholerae O1 El Tor associated with cholera in Asia, Africa, and the Americas. The presence in Asia and the Americas of non-pandemic V. cholerae O1 El Tor populations differing by PFGE and from strains associated with cholera globally suggests different ecotypes are resident in distant geographies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Comparative genomic analysis of Vibrio cholerae El Tor associated with endemic cholera in Asia revealed two distinct lineages, one dominant in Bangladesh and the other in India. An in-depth whole-genome study of V. cholerae El Tor strains isolated during endemic cholera in Bangladesh (1991 to 2017) included reference genome sequence data obtained online. Core genome phylogeny established using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed V. cholerae El Tor strains comprised two lineages, BD-1 and BD-2, which, according to Bayesian phylodynamic analysis, originated from paraphyletic group BD-0 around 1981. BD-1 and BD-2 lineages overlapped temporally but were negatively associated as causative agents of cholera during 2004 to 2017. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) revealed 140 SNPs and 31 indels, resulting in gene alleles unique to BD-1 and BD-2. Regression analysis of root to tip distance and year of isolation indicated early BD-0 strains at the base, whereas BD-1 and BD-2 subsequently emerged and progressed by accumulating SNPs. Pangenome analysis provided evidence of gene acquisition by both BD-1 and BD-2, of which six crucial proteins of known function were predominant in BD-2. BD-1 and BD-2 diverged and have distinctively different genomic traits, namely, heterogeneity in VSP-2, VPI-1, mobile elements, toxin encoding elements, and total gene abundance. In addition, the observed phage-inducible chromosomal island-like element (PLE1), and SXT ICE elements (ICE TET ) in BD-2 presumably provided a fitness advantage for the lineage to outcompete BD-1 as the etiological agent of endemic cholera in Bangladesh, with implications for global cholera epidemiology. IMPORTANCE Cholera is a global disease with specific reference to the Bay of Bengal Ganges Delta where Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor, the causative agent of the disease showed two circulating lineages, one dominant in Bangladesh and the other in India. Results of an in-depth genomic study of V. cholerae associated with endemic cholera during the past 27 years (1991 to 2017) indicate emergence and succession of the two lineages, BD-1 and BD-2, arising from a common ancestral paraphyletic group, BD-0, comprising the early strains and short-term evolution of the bacterium in Bangladesh. Among the two V. cholerae lineages, BD-2 supersedes BD-1 and is predominant in the most recent endemic cholera in Bangladesh. The BD-2 lineage contained significantly more SNPs and indels, and showed richness in gene abundance, including antimicrobial resistance genes, gene cassettes, and PLE to fight against bacteriophage infection, acquired over time. These findings have important epidemic implications on a global scale.

As the world's longest running pandemic, cholera poses a substantial public health burden in Bangladesh, where human vulnerability intersects with climatic variability. Barriers to safe water and sanitation place the health of millions of Bangladeshis in jeopardy - especially those who have highly constrained choices in preventing and responding to cholera. In this paper we investigate demand for cholera prevention among residents in the Mirpur and Karail slum areas of urban Dhaka. Using survey data from 2023 households in two slum areas, we analyze responses from a contingent valuation questionnaire that elicited willingness to pay (WTP) for cholera vaccines across household members and under varying disease risk scenarios, finding higher valuation for cholera prevention for children and under scenarios of greater epidemic risk. We estimate the average WTP for a cholera vaccine for a child ranges from TK 134-167 (US$ 1.58-1.96). Consistently, respondents with prior knowledge of the cholera vaccine reported lower WTP valuations, providing suggestive evidence of concerns about vaccine effectiveness and preferences for cholera treatment over prevention. We supplement the contingent valuation analysis with cost of illness estimates from both our household sample as well as from administrative hospital records of over 34,000 cholera patients. We estimate that a household incurs costs of TK 801-922 (US$ 9.43-10.50) per episode of cholera that requires medical treatment. Taken together, these findings indicate higher WTP for cholera treatment compared to prevention, but increased interest in prevention under early warning system scenarios of high disease risk., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The cholera epidemic that occurred in Haiti post-earthquake in 2010 has resulted in over 9000 deaths during the past eight years. Currently, morbidity and mortality rates for cholera have declined, but cholera cases still occur on a daily basis. One continuing issue is an inability to accurately predict and identify when cholera outbreaks might occur. To explore this surveillance gap, a metagenomic approach employing environmental samples was taken. In this study, surface water samples were collected at two time points from several sites near the original epicenter of the cholera outbreak in the Central Plateau of Haiti. These samples underwent whole genome sequencing and subsequent metagenomic analysis to characterize the microbial community of bacteria, fungi, protists, and viruses, and to identify antibiotic resistance and virulence associated genes. Replicates from sites were analyzed by principle components analysis, and distinct genomic profiles were obtained for each site. Cholera toxin converting phage was detected at one site, and Shiga toxin converting phages at several sites. Members of the Acinetobacter family were frequently detected in samples, including members implicated in waterborne diseases. These results indicate a metagenomic approach to evaluating water samples can be useful for source tracking and the surveillance of pathogens such as Vibrio cholerae over time, as well as for monitoring virulence factors such as cholera toxin.

Unlabelled: An outbreak of cholera occurred in 1991 in Mexico, where it had not been reported for more than a century and is now endemic. Vibrio cholerae O1 prototype El Tor and classical strains coexist with altered El Tor strains (1991 to 1997). Nontoxigenic (CTX(-)) V. cholerae El Tor dominated toxigenic (CTX(+)) strains (2001 to 2003), but V. cholerae CTX(+) variant El Tor was isolated during 2004 to 2008, outcompeting CTX(-) V. cholerae. Genomes of six Mexican V. cholerae O1 strains isolated during 1991 to 2008 were sequenced and compared with both contemporary and archived strains of V. cholerae. Three were CTX(+) El Tor, two were CTX(-) El Tor, and the remaining strain was a CTX(+) classical isolate. Whole-genome sequence analysis showed the six isolates belonged to five distinct phylogenetic clades. One CTX(-) isolate is ancestral to the 6th and 7th pandemic CTX(+) V. cholerae isolates. The other CTX(-) isolate joined with CTX(-) non-O1/O139 isolates from Haiti and seroconverted O1 isolates from Brazil and Amazonia. One CTX(+) isolate was phylogenetically placed with the sixth pandemic classical clade and the V. cholerae O395 classical reference strain. Two CTX(+) El Tor isolates possessing intact Vibrio seventh pandemic island II (VSP-II) are related to hybrid El Tor isolates from Mozambique and Bangladesh. The third CTX(+) El Tor isolate contained West African-South American (WASA) recombination in VSP-II and showed relatedness to isolates from Peru and Brazil. Except for one isolate, all Mexican isolates lack SXT/R391 integrative conjugative elements (ICEs) and sensitivity to selected antibiotics, with one isolate resistant to streptomycin. No isolates were related to contemporary isolates from Asia, Africa, or Haiti, indicating phylogenetic diversity., Importance: Sequencing of genomes of V. cholerae is critical if genetic changes occurring over time in the circulating population of an area of endemicity are to be understood. Although cholera outbreaks occurred rarely in Mexico prior to the 1990s, genetically diverse V. cholerae O1 strains were isolated between 1991 and 2008. Despite the lack of strong evidence, the notion that cholera was transmitted from Africa to Latin America has been proposed in the literature. In this study, we have applied whole-genome sequence analysis to a set of 124 V. cholerae strains, including six Mexican isolates, to determine their phylogenetic relationships. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the six V. cholerae O1 isolates belong to five phylogenetic clades: i.e., basal, nontoxigenic, classical, El Tor, and hybrid El Tor. Thus, the results of phylogenetic analysis, coupled with CTXϕ array and antibiotic susceptibility, do not support single-source transmission of cholera to Mexico from African countries. The association of indigenous populations of V. cholerae that has been observed in this study suggests it plays a significant role in the dynamics of cholera in Mexico., (Copyright © 2016 Choi et al.)

Unlabelled: Cholera continues to be a global threat, with high rates of morbidity and mortality. In 2011, a cholera outbreak occurred in Palawan, Philippines, affecting more than 500 people, and 20 individuals died. Vibrio cholerae O1 was confirmed as the etiological agent. Source attribution is critical in cholera outbreaks for proper management of the disease, as well as to control spread. In this study, three V. cholerae O1 isolates from a Philippines cholera outbreak were sequenced and their genomes analyzed to determine phylogenetic relatedness to V. cholerae O1 isolates from recent outbreaks of cholera elsewhere. The Philippines V. cholerae O1 isolates were determined to be V. cholerae O1 hybrid El Tor belonging to the seventh-pandemic clade. They clustered tightly, forming a monophyletic clade closely related to V. cholerae O1 hybrid El Tor from Asia and Africa. The isolates possess a unique multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) genotype (12-7-9-18-25 and 12-7-10-14-21) and lack SXT. In addition, they possess a novel 15-kb genomic island (GI-119) containing a predicted type I restriction-modification system. The CTXΦ-RS1 array of the Philippines isolates was similar to that of V. cholerae O1 MG116926, a hybrid El Tor strain isolated in Bangladesh in 1991. Overall, the data indicate that the Philippines V. cholerae O1 isolates are unique, differing from recent V. cholerae O1 isolates from Asia, Africa, and Haiti. Furthermore, the results of this study support the hypothesis that the Philippines isolates of V. cholerae O1 are indigenous and exist locally in the aquatic ecosystem of the Philippines., Importance: Genetic characterization and phylogenomics analysis of outbreak strains have proven to be critical for probing clonal relatedness to strains isolated in different geographical regions and over time. Recently, extensive genetic analyses of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated in different countries have been done. However, genome sequences of V. cholerae O1 isolates from the Philippines have not been available for epidemiological investigation. In this study, molecular typing and phylogenetic analysis of Vibrio cholerae isolated from both clinical and environmental samples in 2011 confirmed unique genetic features of the Philippines isolates, which are helpful to understand the global epidemiology of cholera., (Copyright © 2015 Klinzing et al.)

Unlabelled: Phylodynamic analysis of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data is a powerful tool to investigate underlying evolutionary processes of bacterial epidemics. The method was applied to investigate a collection of 65 clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae from Haiti collected between 2010 and 2012. Characterization of isolates recovered from environmental samples identified a total of four toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates, four non-O1/O139 isolates, and a novel nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolate with the classical tcpA gene. Phylogenies of strains were inferred from genome-wide SNPs using coalescent-based demographic models within a Bayesian framework. A close phylogenetic relationship between clinical and environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains was observed. As cholera spread throughout Haiti between October 2010 and August 2012, the population size initially increased and then fluctuated over time. Selection analysis along internal branches of the phylogeny showed a steady accumulation of synonymous substitutions and a progressive increase of nonsynonymous substitutions over time, suggesting diversification likely was driven by positive selection. Short-term accumulation of nonsynonymous substitutions driven by selection may have significant implications for virulence, transmission dynamics, and even vaccine efficacy., Importance: Cholera, a dehydrating diarrheal disease caused by toxigenic strains of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, emerged in 2010 in Haiti, a country where there were no available records on cholera over the past 100 years. While devastating in terms of morbidity and mortality, the outbreak provided a unique opportunity to study the evolutionary dynamics of V. cholerae and its environmental presence. The present study expands on previous work and provides an in-depth phylodynamic analysis inferred from genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of clinical and environmental strains from dispersed geographic settings in Haiti over a 2-year period. Our results indicate that even during such a short time scale, V. cholerae in Haiti has undergone evolution and diversification driven by positive selection, which may have implications for understanding the global clinical and epidemiological patterns of the disease. Furthermore, the continued presence of the epidemic strain in Haitian aquatic environments has implications for transmission., (Copyright © 2014 Azarian et al.)

Between November 2010, and May 2011, eleven cases of cholera, unrelated to a concurrent outbreak on the island of Hispaniola, were recorded, and the causative agent, Vibrio cholerae serogroup O75, was traced to oysters harvested from Apalachicola Bay, Florida. From the 11 diagnosed cases, eight isolates of V. cholerae were isolated and their genomes were sequenced. Genomic analysis demonstrated the presence of a suite of mobile elements previously shown to be involved in the disease process of cholera (ctxAB, VPI-1 and -2, and a VSP-II like variant) and a phylogenomic analysis showed the isolates to be sister taxa to toxigenic V. cholerae V51 serogroup O141, a clinical strain isolated 23 years earlier. Toxigenic V. cholerae O75 has been repeatedly isolated from clinical cases in the southeastern United States and toxigenic V. cholerae O141 isolates have been isolated globally from clinical cases over several decades. Comparative genomics, phenotypic analyses, and a Caenorhabditis elegans model of infection for the isolates were conducted. This analysis coupled with isolation data of V. cholerae O75 and O141 suggests these strains may represent an underappreciated clade of cholera-causing strains responsible for significant disease burden globally.

Cholera remains a major public health problem. To compare the relative contribution of strains from the environment with strains isolated from patients during outbreaks, we performed multilocus variable tandem repeat analyses on samples collected during the 2010 and 2011 outbreak seasons in 2 geographically distinct areas of Bangladesh. A total of 222 environmental and clinical isolates of V. cholerae O1 were systematically collected from Chhatak and Mathbaria. In Chhatak, 75 of 79 isolates were from the same clonal complex, in which extensive differentiation was found in a temporally consistent pattern of successive mutations at single loci. A total of 59 isolates were collected from 6 persons; most isolates from 1 person differed by sequential single-locus mutations. In Mathbaria, 60 of 84 isolates represented 2 separate clonal complexes. The small number of genetic lineages in isolates from patients, compared with those from the environment, is consistent with accelerated transmission of some strains among humans during an outbreak.

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions.

Vibrio cholerae, an environmental organism, is a facultative human pathogen. Here, we report the virulence profiles, comprising 18 genetic markers, of 102 clinical and 692 environmental V. cholerae strains isolated in Bangladesh between March 2004 and January 2006, showing the variability of virulence determinants within the context of public health.

Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, results in significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, including Thailand. Representative V. cholerae strains associated with endemic cholera (n = 32), including strains (n = 3) from surface water sources, in Khon Kaen, Thailand (2003-2011), were subjected to microbiological, molecular and phylogenetic analyses. According to phenotypic and related genetic data, all tested V. cholerae strains belonged to serogroup O1, biotype El Tor (ET), Inaba (IN) or Ogawa (OG). All of the strains were sensitive to gentamicin and ciprofloxacin, while multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains showing resistance to erythromycin, tetracycline, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and ampicillin were predominant in 2007. V. cholerae strains isolated before and after 2007 were non-MDR. All except six diarrhoeal strains possessed ctxA and ctxB genes and were toxigenic altered ET, confirmed by MAMA-PCR and DNA sequencing. Year-wise data revealed that V. cholerae INET strains isolated between 2003 and 2004, plus one strain isolated in 2007, lacked the RS1 sequence (rstC) and toxin-linked cryptic plasmid (TLC)-specific genetic marker, but possessed CTX(CL) prophage genes ctxB(CL) and rstR(CL). A sharp genetic transition was noted, namely the majority of V. cholerae strains in 2007 and all in 2010 and 2011 were not repressor genotype rstR(CL) but instead were rstR(ET), and all ctx(+) strains possessed RS1 and TLC-specific genetic markers. DNA sequencing data revealed that strains isolated since 2007 had a mutation in the tcpA gene at amino acid position 64 (N→S). Four clonal types, mostly of environmental origin, including subtypes, reflected genetic diversity, while distinct signatures were observed for clonally related, altered ET from Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh, confirmed by distinct subclustering patterns observed in the PFGE (NotI)-based dendrogram, suggesting that endemic cholera is caused by V. cholerae indigenous to Khon Kaen.

Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor (ET), causing the seventh cholera pandemic, was recently replaced in Bangladesh by an altered ET possessing ctxB of the Classical (CL) biotype, which caused the first six cholera pandemics. In the present study, V. cholerae O1 strains associated with endemic cholera in Dhaka between 2006 and 2011 were analysed for major phenotypic and genetic characteristics. Of 54 representative V. cholerae isolates tested, all were phenotypically ET and showed uniform resistance to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (SXT) and furazolidone (FR). Resistance to tetracycline (TE) and erythromycin (E) showed temporal fluctuation, varying from year to year, while all isolates were susceptible to gentamicin (CN) and ciprofloxacin (CIP). Year-wise data revealed erythromycin resistance to be 33.3 % in 2006 and 11 % in 2011, while tetracycline resistance accounted for 33, 78, 0, 100 and 27 % in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively; interestingly, all isolates tested were sensitive to TE in 2011, as observed in 2008. All V. cholerae isolates tested possessed genetic elements such as SXT, ctxAB, tcpA(ET), rstR(ET) and rtxC; none had IntlI (Integron I). Double mismatch amplification mutation assay (DMAMA)-PCR followed by DNA sequencing and analysis of the ctxB gene revealed a point mutation at position 58 (C→A), which has resulted in an amino acid substitution from histidine (H) to asparagine (N) at position 20 (genotype 7) since 2008. Although the multi-resistant strains having tetracycline resistance showed minor genetic divergence, V. cholerae strains were clonal, as determined by a PFGE (NotI)-based dendrogram. This study shows 2008-2010 to be the time of transition from ctxB genotype 1 to genotype 7 in V. cholerae ET causing endemic cholera in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The millions of deaths from cholera during the past 200 y, coupled with the morbidity and mortality of cholera in Haiti since October 2010, are grim reminders that Vibrio cholerae, the etiologic agent of cholera, remains a scourge. We report the isolation of both V. cholerae O1 and non-O1/O139 early in the Haiti cholera epidemic from samples collected from victims in 18 towns across eight Arrondissements of Haiti. The results showed two distinct populations of V. cholerae coexisted in Haiti early in the epidemic. As non-O1/O139 V. cholerae was the sole pathogen isolated from 21% of the clinical specimens, its role in this epidemic, either alone or in concert with V. cholerae O1, cannot be dismissed. A genomic approach was used to examine similarities and differences among the Haitian V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1/O139 strains. A total of 47 V. cholerae O1 and 29 V. cholerae non-O1/O139 isolates from patients and the environment were sequenced. Comparative genome analyses of the 76 genomes and eight reference strains of V. cholerae isolated in concurrent epidemics outside Haiti and 27 V. cholerae genomes available in the public database demonstrated substantial diversity of V. cholerae and ongoing flux within its genome.

Vibrio cholerae O1 classical (CL) biotype caused the fifth and sixth pandemics, and probably the earlier cholera pandemics, before the El Tor (ET) biotype initiated the seventh pandemic in Asia in the 1970s by completely displacing the CL biotype. Although the CL biotype was thought to be extinct in Asia and although it had never been reported from Latin America, V. cholerae CL and ET biotypes, including a hybrid ET, were found associated with areas of cholera endemicity in Mexico between 1991 and 1997. In this study, CL biotype strains isolated from areas of cholera endemicity in Mexico between 1983 and 1997 were characterized in terms of major phenotypic and genetic traits and compared with CL biotype strains isolated in Bangladesh between 1962 and 1989. According to sero- and biotyping data, all V. cholerae strains tested had the major phenotypic and genotypic characteristics specific for the CL biotype. Antibiograms revealed the majority of the Bangladeshi strains to be resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, furazolidone, ampicillin, and gentamicin, while the Mexican strains were sensitive to all of these drugs, as well as to ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, and tetracycline. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of NotI-digested genomic DNA revealed characteristic banding patterns for all of the CL biotype strains although the Mexican strains differed from the Bangladeshi strains in 1 to 2 DNA bands. The difference was subtle but consistent, as confirmed by the subclustering patterns in the PFGE-based dendrogram, and can serve as a regional signature, suggesting the pre-1991 existence and evolution of the CL biotype strains in the Americas, independent from Asia.

Cholera is an acute diarrheal illness caused by Vibrio cholerae and occurs as widespread epidemics in Africa. In 2005, there were 31,719 cholera cases, with 458 deaths in the Republic of Senegal. We retrospectively investigated the climate origin of the devastating floods in mid-August 2005, in the Dakar Region of Senegal and the subsequent outbreak of cholera along with the pattern of cholera outbreaks in three other regions of that country. We compared rainfall patterns between 2002 and 2005 and the relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and precipitation over Senegal for 2005. Results showed a specific pattern of rainfall throughout the Dakar region during August, 2005, and the associated rainfall anomaly coincided with an exacerbation of the cholera epidemic. Comparison of rainfall and epidemiological patterns revealed that the temporal dynamics of precipitation, which was abrupt and heavy, was presumably the determining factor. Analysis of the SST gradient showed that the Atlantic Ocean SST variability in 2005 differed from that of 2002 to 2004, a result of a prominent Atlantic meridional mode. The influence of this intense precipitation on cholera transmission over a densely populated and crowded region was detectable for both Dakar and Thiès, Senegal. Thus, high resolution rainfall forecasts at subseasonal time scales should provide a way forward for an early warning system in Africa for cholera and, thereby, trigger epidemic preparedness. Clearly, attention must be paid to both natural and human induced environmental factors to devise appropriate action to prevent cholera and other waterborne disease epidemics in the region.

Cholera, a waterborne disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, is an autochthonous member of the aquatic environment and predominantly reported from developing countries. Technical reports and proceedings were reviewed to determine the relationship between occurrence of V. cholerae in natural waters, including sources of municipal water, and cases of cholera in Azerbaijan. Water samples collected from different environmental sources from 1970 to 1998 were tested for V. cholerae and 0.73% (864/117,893) were positive. The results showed that in April of each year, when the air temperature rose by approximately 5°C, V. cholerae could be isolated. With each increase in air temperature, 6-8 weeks after, impact on cases of cholera was recorded. The incidence of cholera peaked when the air temperature reached >25°C during the month of September. It is concluded that a distinct seasonality in cholera incidence exists in Azerbaijan, with increased occurrence during warmer months.

Vibrio cholerae, a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, is the causative agent of cholera, a severe watery, life-threatening diarrheal disease occurring predominantly in developing countries. V. cholerae, including both serogroups O1 and O139, is found in association with crustacean zooplankton, mainly copepods, and notably in ponds, rivers, and estuarine systems globally. The incidence of cholera and occurrence of pathogenic V. cholerae strains with zooplankton were studied in two areas of Bangladesh: Bakerganj and Mathbaria. Chitinous zooplankton communities of several bodies of water were analyzed in order to understand the interaction of the zooplankton population composition with the population dynamics of pathogenic V. cholerae and incidence of cholera. Two dominant zooplankton groups were found to be consistently associated with detection of V. cholerae and/or occurrence of cholera cases, namely, rotifers and cladocerans, in addition to copepods. Local differences indicate there are subtle ecological factors that can influence interactions between V. cholerae, its plankton hosts, and the incidence of cholera.

Using comparative genomics, we identified a new variant of the Vibrio Seventh Pandemic Island-I (VSP-I). Results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening for both known VSP-I variants indicate that the novel variant is present only in non-O1/non-O139 strains of V. cholerae and Vibrio mimicus. Comparative genomics revealed little sequence divergence in the seventh pandemic VSP-I; however, a second insertion site located on the smaller chromosome was identified. Although the seventh pandemic VSP-I genomic island was detected in all seventh pandemic V. cholerae serogroup O1 and O139 isolates examined in this study, unique genes of the island cannot be used alone as an identifying target, because the seventh pandemic VSP-I was also present in three non-seventh pandemic strains of V. cholerae isolated from Chesapeake Bay. As an alternative, a PCR assay targeting the VC2346 gene was found to be confirmatory for seventh pandemic isolates of V. cholerae.

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is naturally present in the environment and autochthonous to coastal and estuarine ecosystems. V. cholerae is associated with copepods for its survival and multiplication in the natural environment. Changes in the density of its reservoir may result in modification of the bacterial population size in the environment. In this context, climate and/or environmental changes will influence the emergence of cholera in human populations. Several human pathogens are naturally occurring in the aquatic environment and can pose a threat to public health, including V. cholerae. We present results of a project, the goal of which was to improve the understanding of environmental factors associated with occurrence and distribution of the causative agent of cholera in time and space. The system that was developed provides real-time as well as short-term to seasonal forecasts of the likelihood of occurrence of V. cholerae in the Chesapeake Bay. The system, and potential future improved versions of it, may be useful to public health officials concerned with environmental factors influencing human health.

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, has been shown to be autochthonous to riverine, estuarine, and coastal waters along with its host, the copepod, a significant member of the zooplankton community. Temperature, salinity, rainfall and plankton have proven to be important factors in the ecology of V. cholerae, influencing the transmission of the disease in those regions of the world where the human population relies on untreated water as a source of drinking water. In this study, the pattern of cholera outbreaks during 1998-2006 in Kolkata, India, and Matlab, Bangladesh, and the earth observation data were analyzed with the objective of developing a prediction model for cholera. Satellite sensors were used to measure chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, rainfall data were obtained from both satellite and in situ gauge measurements. From the analyses, a statistically significant relationship between the time series for cholera in Kolkata, India, and CHL and rainfall anomalies was determined. A statistically significant one month lag was observed between CHL anomaly and number of cholera cases in Matlab, Bangladesh. From the results of the study, it is concluded that ocean and climate patterns are useful predictors of cholera epidemics, with the dynamics of endemic cholera being related to climate and/or changes in the aquatic ecosystem. When the ecology of V. cholerae is considered in predictive models, a robust early warning system for cholera in endemic regions of the world can be developed for public health planning and decision making.

Vibrio cholerae exhibits two distinctive lifestyles, one inside the milieu of the human intestine and the other in the aquatic environment. Recently, the existence of V. cholerae ligands involved in colonization of both human intestine and environmental chitin surfaces via the same binding specificity has been shown. Such molecules, here named 'dual role colonization factors (DRCFs)', are example of a tight connection between the two V. cholerae's lifestyles. It is suggested that DRCFs and, more generally, bacterial factors and pathways having roles in pathogenesis and in the out of the human body life may be promising targets for development of novel prophylactic or therapeutic interventions that may also affect V. cholerae fitness in its environmental reservoirs.

The interaction of Vibrio cholerae with chitin exemplifies for microbial ecology a successful bacteria-substrate interaction with complex and significant influence on the lifestyle of the bacterium. Chitin is one of the most abundant polymers on earth and possibly the most abundant in the aquatic environment, where its association with V. cholerae has provided the microorganism with a number of advantages, including food availability, adaptation to environmental nutrient gradients, tolerance to stress and protection from predators. Emergent properties of V. cholerae-chitin interactions occur at multiple hierarchical levels in the environment and include cell metabolic and physiological responses e.g. chemotaxis, cell multiplication, induction of competence, biofilm formation, commensal and symbiotic relationship with higher organisms, cycling of nutrients, and pathogenicity for humans and aquatic animals. As factors mediating virulence of V. cholerae for humans and aquatic animals derive from mechanisms of adaptation to its environment, at different levels of hierarchical scale, V. cholerae interactions with chitin represent a useful model for examination of the role of primary habitat selection in the development of traits that have been identified as virulence factors in human disease.

Vibrio cholerae persists in aquatic environments predominantly in a nonculturable state. In this study coccoid, nonculturable V. cholerae O1 in biofilms maintained for 495 days in Mathbaria, Bangladesh, pond water became culturable upon animal passage. Culturability, biofilm formation, and the wbe, ctxA, and rstR2 genes were monitored by culture, direct fluorescent antibody (DFA), and multiplex PCR. DFA counts were not possible after formation of biofilm. Furthermore, wbe, but not ctxA, were amplifiable, even after incubation for 54 and 68 days at room temperature ( approximately 25 degrees C) and 4 degrees C, respectively, when no growth was detectable. Slower biofilm formation and extended culturability were observed for cultures incubated at 4 degrees C, compared with approximately 25 degrees C, suggesting biofilm production to be temperature dependent and linked to loss of culturability. Small colonies appearing after incubation in microcosms for 54 and 68 days at 25 degrees C and 4 degrees C, respectively, were wbe positive and ctxA and rstR2 negative, indicating loss of bacteriophage CTXphi. The coccoid V. cholerae O1 observed as free cells in microcosms incubated for 495 days could not be cultured, but biofilms in the same microcosms yielded culturable cells. It is concluded that biofilms can act as a reservoir for V. cholerae O1 between epidemics because of its long-term viability in biofilms. In contrast to biofilms produced in Mathbaria pond water, V. cholerae O1 in biofilms present in cholera stools and incubated under identical conditions as the Mathbaria pond water biofilms could not be cultured after 2 months, indicating that those V. cholerae cells freshly discharged into the environment are significantly less robust than cells adapted to environmental conditions.

Since Vibrio cholerae O139 first appeared in 1992, both O1 El Tor and O139 have been recognized as the epidemic serogroups, although their geographic distribution, endemicity, and reservoir are not fully understood. To address this lack of information, a study of the epidemiology and ecology of V. cholerae O1 and O139 was carried out in two coastal areas, Bakerganj and Mathbaria, Bangladesh, where cholera occurs seasonally. The results of a biweekly clinical study (January 2004 to May 2005), employing culture methods, and of an ecological study (monthly in Bakerganj and biweekly in Mathbaria from March 2004 to May 2005), employing direct and enrichment culture, colony blot hybridization, and direct fluorescent-antibody methods, showed that cholera is endemic in both Bakerganj and Mathbaria and that V. cholerae O1, O139, and non-O1/non-O139 are autochthonous to the aquatic environment. Although V. cholerae O1 and O139 were isolated from both areas, most noteworthy was the isolation of V. cholerae O139 in March, July, and September 2004 in Mathbaria, where seasonal cholera was clinically linked only to V. cholerae O1. In Mathbaria, V. cholerae O139 emerged as the sole cause of a significant outbreak of cholera in March 2005. V. cholerae O1 reemerged clinically in April 2005 and established dominance over V. cholerae O139, continuing to cause cholera in Mathbaria. In conclusion, the epidemic potential and coastal aquatic reservoir for V. cholerae O139 have been demonstrated. Based on the results of this study, the coastal ecosystem of the Bay of Bengal is concluded to be a significant reservoir for the epidemic serogroups of V. cholerae.

The occurrence of outbreaks of cholera in Africa in 1970 and in Latin America in 1991, mainly in coastal communities, and the appearance of the new serotype Vibrio cholerae O139 in India and subsequently in Bangladesh have stimulated efforts to understand environmental factors influencing the growth and geographic distribution of epidemic Vibrio cholerae serotypes. Because of the severity of recent epidemics, cholera is now being considered by some infectious disease investigators as a "reemerging" disease, prompting new work on the ecology of vibrios. Epidemiological and ecological surveillance for cholera has been under way in four rural, geographically separated locations in Bangladesh for the past 4 years, during which both clinical and environmental samples were collected at biweekly intervals. The clinical epidemiology portion of the research has been published (Sack et al., J. Infect. Dis. 187:96-101, 2003). The results of environmental sampling and analysis of the environmental and clinical data have revealed significant correlations of water temperature, water depth, rainfall, conductivity, and copepod counts with the occurrence of cholera toxin-producing bacteria (presumably V. cholerae). The lag periods between increases or decreases in units of factors, such as temperature and salinity, and occurrence of cholera correlate with biological parameters, e.g., plankton population blooms. The new information on the ecology of V. cholerae is proving useful in developing environmental models for the prediction of cholera epidemics.

The diversity of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in the aquatic environment of Bangladesh is not known. A total of 18 environmental and 18 clinical strains of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 were isolated simultaneously from four different geographical areas and tested for variation by the pulsed-field gel electrophoresis method. Environmental strains showed diversified profiles and one of the profiles was common to some environmental strains and most clinical strains. It appears that one clone has an advantage over others to cause disease. These findings suggest that the study of the molecular ecology of V. cholerae O1 in relation to its environmental reservoir is important in identifying virulent strains that cause disease.

Based on results of ecological studies demonstrating that Vibrio cholerae, the etiological agent of epidemic cholera, is commensal to zooplankton, notably copepods, a simple filtration procedure was developed whereby zooplankton, most phytoplankton, and particulates >20 microm were removed from water before use. Effective deployment of this filtration procedure, from September 1999 through July 2002 in 65 villages of rural Bangladesh, of which the total population for the entire study comprised approximately 133,000 individuals, yielded a 48% reduction in cholera (P < 0.005) compared with the control.

The emergence of Vibrio cholerae O139 Bengal during 1992-1993 was associated with large epidemics of cholera in India and Bangladesh and, initially, with a total displacement of the existing V. cholerae O1 strains. However, the O1 strains reemerged in 1994 and initiated a series of disappearance and reemergence of either of the two serogroups that was associated with temporal genetic and phenotypic changes sustained by the strains. Since the initial emergence of the O139 vibrios, new variants of the pathogen derived from multiple progenitors have been isolated and characterized. The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of these strains have been studied. Rapid genetic reassortment in O139 strains appears to be a response to the changing epidemiology of V. cholerae O1 and also a strategy for persistence in competition with strains of the O1 serogroup. The emergence of V. cholerae O139 has provided a unique opportunity to witness genetic changes in V. cholerae that may be associated with displacement of an existing serogroup by a newly emerging one and, thus, provide new insights into the epidemiology of cholera. The genetic changes and natural selection involving both environmental and host factors are likely to influence profoundly the genetics, epidemiology, and evolution of toxigenic V. cholerae, not only in the Ganges Delta region of India and Bangladesh, but also in other areas of endemic and epidemic cholera.

How Vibrio cholerae spreads around the world and what determines its seasonal peaks in endemic areas are not known. These features of cholera have been hypothesized to be primarily the result of environmental factors associated with aquatic habitats that can now be identified. Since 1997, fortnightly surveillance in 4 widely separated geographic locations in Bangladesh has been performed to identify patients with cholera and to collect environmental data. A total of 5670 patients (53% <5 years of age) have been studied; 14.3% had cholera (10.4% due to V. cholerae O1 El Tor, 3.8% due to O139). Both serogroups were found in all locations; outbreaks were seasonal and often occurred simultaneously. Water-use patterns showed that bathing and washing clothes in tube-well water was significantly protective in two of the sites. These data will be correlated with environmental factors, to develop a model for prediction of cholera outbreaks.

Recently, the role of the environment and climate in disease dynamics has become a subject of increasing interest to microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, and ecologists. Much of the interest has been stimulated by the growing problems of antibiotic resistance among pathogens, emergence and/or reemergence of infectious diseases worldwide, the potential of bioterrorism, and the debate concerning climate change. Cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, lends itself to analyses of the role of climate in infectious disease, coupled to population dynamics of pathogenic microorganisms, for several reasons. First, the disease has a historical context linking it to specific seasons and biogeographical zones. In addition, the population dynamics of V. cholerae in the environment are strongly controlled by environmental factors, such as water temperature, salinity, and the presence of copepods, which are, in turn, controlled by larger-scale climate variability. In this review, the association between plankton and V. cholerae that has been documented over the last 20 years is discussed in support of the hypothesis that cholera shares properties of a vector-borne disease. In addition, a model for environmental transmission of cholera to humans in the context of climate variability is presented. The cholera model provides a template for future research on climate-sensitive diseases, allowing definition of critical parameters and offering a means of developing more sophisticated methods for prediction of disease outbreaks.

Diversity, relatedness, and ecological interactions of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 populations in two distinctive habitats, the human intestine and the aquatic environment, were analyzed. Twenty environmental isolates and 42 clinical isolates were selected for study by matching serotype, geographic location of isolation in Bangladesh, and season of isolation. Genetic profiling was done by enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequence-PCR, optimized for profiling by using the fully sequenced V. cholerae El Tor N16961 genome. Five significant clonal clusters of haplotypes were found from 57 electrophoretic types. Isolates from different areas or habitats intermingled in two of the five significant clusters. Frequencies of haplotypes differed significantly only between the environmental populations (exact test; P < 0.05). Analysis of molecular variance yielded a population genetic structure reflecting the differentiating effects of geographic area, habitat, and sampling time. Although a parameter confounding the latter differences explained 9% of the total molecular variance in the entire population (P < 0.01), the net effect of habitat and time could not be separated because of the small number of environmental isolates included in the study. Five subpopulations from a single area were determined, and from these we were able to estimate a relative differentiating effect of habitat, which was small compared with the effect of temporal change. In conclusion, the resulting population structure supports the hypothesis that spatial and temporal fluctuations in the composition of toxigenic V. cholerae populations in the aquatic environment can cause shifts in the dynamics of the disease.

Cholera, an ancient waterborne diarrheal disease, remains a threat to public health, especially when climate/weather processes, microbiological parameters, and sociological determinants intersect with population vulnerabilities of loss of access to safe drinking water and sanitation infrastructure. The ongoing war in Ukraine has either damaged or severely crippled civil infrastructure, following which the human population is at risk of health disasters. This editorial highlights a perspective on using predictive intelligence to combat potential (and perhaps impending) cholera outbreaks in various regions of Ukraine. Reliable and judicious use of existing earth observations inspired mathematical algorithms integrating heuristic understanding of microbiological, sociological, and weather parameters have the potential to save or reduce the disease burden. Plain Language Summary: Predictive intelligence using data for satellites, microbiology and sociology should be utilized to combat potential cholera outbreaks in war torn Ukraine. Key Points: The risk of cholera in Ukraine will become significant with the noteworthy presence of plankton in the coastal regions, along with anomalous warm air temperatures and heavy precipitationEarth observations inspired anticipatory decision‐making framework is needed for preventing infectious disease outbreaks such as cholera in human populationRegions such as Pakistan with massive flooding may experience similar risks and should be evaluated accordingly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Vibrio spp. thrive in warm water and moderate salinity, and they are associated with aquatic invertebrates, notably crustaceans and zooplankton. At least 12 Vibrio spp. are known to cause infection in humans, and Vibrio cholerae is well documented as the etiological agent of pandemic cholera. Pathogenic non‐cholera Vibrio spp., e.g., Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus, cause gastroenteritis, septicemia, and other extra‐intestinal infections. Incidence of vibriosis is rising globally, with evidence that anthropogenic factors, primarily emissions of carbon dioxide associated with atmospheric warming and more frequent and intense heatwaves, significantly influence environmental parameters, e.g., temperature, salinity, and nutrients, all of which can enhance growth of Vibrio spp. in aquatic ecosystems. It is not possible to eliminate Vibrio spp., as they are autochthonous to the aquatic environment and many play a critical role in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Risk prediction models provide an early warning that is essential for safeguarding public health. This is especially important for regions of the world vulnerable to infrastructure instability, including lack of 'water, sanitation, and hygiene' (WASH), and a less resilient infrastructure that is vulnerable to natural calamity, e.g., hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes, and/or social disruption and civil unrest, arising from war, coups, political crisis, and economic recession. Incorporating environmental, social, and behavioural parameters into such models allows improved prediction, particularly of cholera epidemics. We have reported that damage to WASH infrastructure, coupled with elevated air temperatures and followed by above average rainfall, promotes exposure of a population to contaminated water and increases the risk of an outbreak of cholera. Interestingly, global predictive risk models successful for cholera have the potential, with modification, to predict diseases caused by other clinically relevant Vibrio spp. In the research reported here, the focus was on environmental parameters associated with incidence and distribution of clinically relevant Vibrio spp. and their role in disease transmission. In addition, molecular methods designed for detection and enumeration proved useful for predictive modelling and are described, namely in the context of prediction of environmental conditions favourable to Vibrio spp., hence human health risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]