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Introduction: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined., Methods: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated., Results: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN., Discussion: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Background & Aims: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival., Methods: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death., Results: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2)., Conclusions: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC., (Copyright © 2020 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) predominantly affects middle-aged women; there are few data on disease phenotypes and outcomes of PBC in men and younger patients. We investigated whether differences in sex and/or age at the start of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment are associated with response to therapy, based on biochemical markers, or differences in transplant-free survival., Methods: We performed a longitudinal retrospective study of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study cohort, collected from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients received a diagnosis of PBC from 1961 through 2014. We evaluated the effects of sex and age on response to UDCA treatment (based on GLOBE score) and transplant-free survival using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, respectively., Results: Male patients were older at the start of treatment (58.3±12.1 years vs 54.3±11.6 years for women; P<.0001) and had higher levels of bilirubin and lower circulating platelet counts (P<.0001). Younger patients (45 years or younger) had increased serum levels of transaminases than older patients (older than 45 years). Patients older than 45 years at time of treatment initiation had increased odds of a biochemical response to UDCA therapy, based on GLOBE score, compared to younger patients. The greatest odds of response to UDCA were observed in patients older than 65 years (odds ratio compared to younger patients 45 years or younger, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.92-7.67; P<.0001). Risk of liver transplant or death (compared to a general population matched for age, sex, and birth year) decreased significantly with advancing age: hazard ratio for patients 35 years or younger, 14.59 (95% CI, 9.66-22.02) vs hazard ratio for patients older than 65 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.23-1.57) (P<.0001). On multivariable analysis, sex was not independently associated with response or transplant-free survival., Conclusion: In longitudinal analysis of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study, we associated patient age, but not sex, with response to UDCA treatment and transplant-free survival. Younger age at time of treatment initiation is associated with increased risk of treatment failure, liver transplant, and death., (Copyright © 2019 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a disease with rising prevalence and considerable geographical variation. To describe the prevalence, spatial and time distribution, baseline characteristics, response to treatment, outcome and the validity of GLOBE score in a large cohort of Greek PBC patients as an independent validation of this score has not been done so far., Methods: The last 16years, 482 PBC patients (86.5% females) were evaluated and analysed retrospectively, using a prospectively collected database. Special attention was paid to the assessment of treatment response according to GLOBE score., Results: Age at initial evaluation was 56.3±13.7years. Among 432 Thessaly residents, prevalence was 582/million (non-homogeneous distribution). Nineteen districts showed a prevalence >800/million. Symptomatic disease onset could be identified in 91 patients, with a significant peak during spring (P=0.03). At diagnosis, 43.6% were asymptomatic and 16.2% cirrhotic. Male sex (P=0.02), older age (P<0.001), alcohol consumption (P<0.01) and concomitant liver disease (P<0.001) were negative prognostic factors for cirrhosis. During a median [interquartile range, range] follow-up of 5.1 (7.8, 15.7) years, 62 patients died or underwent liver transplantation. Patients with GLOBE score>0.30 had significantly worse prognosis (P<0.001) with 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rates of 84%, 50% and 42%., Conclusions: There is increased PBC prevalence in Thessaly with remarkable geographic clustering and seasonal variability. PBC is diagnosed at early stages although males had a more advanced disease. GLOBE score applies perfectly in Greek patients and this will likely help detecting patients that may benefit from new therapies., (Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: A reliable liver autoimmune serology for the diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is of particular importance. Recognition of patients at early stages and prompt treatment initiation may alter the outcome, slow progression, delays liver failure, and improves survival., Areas Covered: In this review, we summarize and discuss the published data obtained from literature searches from PubMed and The National Library of Medicine (USA) and our own experience on the current and potential molecular based approaches to the diagnosis of PBC. Expert commentary: Standardization of liver diagnostic serology and clinical governance are two major points as antimitochondrial antibodies are the diagnostic hallmark of the disease and PBC-specific antinuclear antibodies could assist in the diagnosis and estimation of prognosis. New biomarkers such as novel autoantibodies, genetic polymorphisms, metabolomic profiling, micro-RNA and epigenetics may assist to the understanding, diagnosis and management of the disease.

Summary: Background: After 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may have a normal GLOBE score despite high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels. Aim: To assess the association between ALP and liver transplantation (LT)‐free survival according to the GLOBE score Methods: Among patients with a normal or elevated GLOBE score in the Global PBC cohort, the association between ALP after 1 year of UDCA and the risk of LT/death was assessed. The LT‐free survival was compared with that of a matched general population. Results: After 1 year of UDCA, ALP was associated with the risk of LT/death (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.003–1.72, p = 0.048) among 2729 patients with a normal GLOBE score. The 10‐year LT‐free survival among these patients with an ALP >2.0 × ULN was 94.0% (95% CI 90.1–97.9) for those <50 years, and 82.6% (95% CI 76.5–88.7) for those ≥50 years, which was significantly lower (p = 0.040) and similar (p = 0.736) to that of the matched population, respectively. The 10‐year LT‐free survival in patients ≥50 years with normal GLOBE score and normal ALP (90.8%, 95% CI 87.7–93.9) was significantly higher (p = 0.022) than the matched population. Among 1045 patients with an elevated GLOBE score, ALP was associated with LT/death only in those <50 years (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06–1.81, p = 0.016). Conclusion: The LT‐free survival of patients with PBC with a normal GLOBE score is optimal in case of normal ALP levels, also in relation to the general population. Despite their generally favourable prognosis, an elevated ALP level may still indicate a need for add‐on therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction and Objectives: We assessed FibroMeter virus (FMvirus) and FibroMeter vibration-controlled transient elastography (FMVCTE) in 134 patients with autoimmune liver diseases [ALD, autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC)], in order to assess new potential non-invasive biomarkers of liver fibrosis in patients with ALD, as similar data are missing. Patients and Methods: The following groups were included: group 1: n = 78 AIH; group 2: n = 56 PBC. FMvirus and FMVCTE were determined in all 134 patients who underwent liver biopsy and TE the same day with sera collection. In addition, APRI and FIB-4 scores were calculated. Results: The AUCs for TE and FMVCTE were significantly better (0.809; p < 0.001 and 0.772; p = 0.001, respectively for AIH and 0.997; p < 0.001 and 1; p < 0.001, for PBC) than the other three markers in predicting ≥ F3 fibrosis irrespective of the biochemical activity. FMVCTE and TE had good diagnostic accuracy (75.6% and 73%, respectively) for predicting severe fibrosis in AIH and performed even better in PBC (94.6% and 96.4%, respectively). The cut-offs of TE and FMVCTE had the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting ≥ F3 fibrosis in both AIH and PBC. Conclusions: FMVCTE seems to detect severe fibrosis equally to TE in patients with ALD but with better specificity. Biochemical disease activity did not seem to affect their diagnostic accuracy in ALD and therefore, could be helpful for the assessment of fibrosis, especially if they are performed sequentially (first TE with the best sensitivity and then FMVCTE with the best specificity). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Diseasewas included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was 10.4% and 12.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]