Search

With the growing share of the climate-sensitive renewable energy market supply in China, estimating future energy drought risk (ED) is essential. In this paper, based on CMIP6, energy demand and power generation are estimated from 2023 to 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, and ED is defined from high demand (HD), low wind-solar generation (LWS), and residual load (RL). The results show that the ED exacerbation is relatively high under the SSP5-8.5. Between 2023 and 2100, the duration and severity of HD and RL notably increase, while LWS changes are relatively weak. We find that HD and RL exhibit high summer risks in the south and high winter risk in the north. The return periods vary significantly and extends over time in most regions. Moreover, there are few ED when the installed power generation capacity (IPGC) is increased. When the IPGC increases by 2%–5%, the LWS will decrease at least 20%–72%. With a 10% increase, the LWS will be mitigated by at least 80%, whereas the mitigation for RL is limited, approximately 3–17% at different rates. This work performs the first evaluation of future ED and provides the useful references for risk mitigation in China based on CMIP6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]