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In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000–2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%.

Although its per capita energy consumption is still only one half of the world average, China is already the second largest energy consumer in the world. In the 1970s, China's energy efficiency was very low, sharing the negative characteristics in this respect of both developing countries and centrally planned economies. Since then, great progress has been made, with a decline of energy intensity of GDP of about 5.4 % per year between 1980 and 1997, due both to improvement in energy efficiency and, in a greater proportion, to shifts in the composition of GDP. The elasticity of energy to GDP is now lower than 0.5. The presence in China of abundant, low-cost coal resources, although favourable to economic development, inhibits efforts to improve energy efficiency. In China, smaller plants (in particular in township and village enterprises) perform worse than larger-scale plants, and are nowadays often being shut down. However, highly efficient technologies for small-scale production are available in industrialised countries and deserve to be explored. Combined production of heat and power is already widespread in China, especially for urban space heating; however, its efficiency is much lower than it could be with modern plants having a higher electricity to heat ratio and serving more particularly the industrial sector. Great improvements in energy performance are expected for new buildings, both commercial and residential. Institutional and other non-technical issues are also being addressed; economic instruments based on market forces are the most effective. Much remains to be done to bring China to the level of the most energy-efficient countries, but China has unique opportunities to become a world leader in the efficient use of energy, because both of the rapidly expanding economy and of the flexibility inherent in the low level of existing energy infrastructure.

This paper presents the resources availability, technologies development and their costs of renewable energies in China and introduces the programs of renewable energies technologies development and their adaptation for rural economic development in China. As the conclusion of this paper, renewable energies technologies are suitable for some rural areas, especially in the remote areas for both household energy and business actives energy demand in the near term, and it has bright prospect in the future.

The scenario suggested by Williams would help promote the simultaneous development of energy, economy, and environment in China, and would also contribute toward controlling global emissions of greenhouse gases. Whether the scenario will be realized in the next 50 years depends on the economic viability of environmental control. At present, control of particulates and SO[sub 2] is not stringent. There is not yet any regulation of CO[sub 2] emissions in China, and there is currently no pressure to follow a greenhouse gas reduction strategy. Because China is a developing country, it has limited economic means for improving the environment. For the benefit of the planet as a whole, the developed and developing countries should do their best to seek sustainable, environmentally sound development paths. Technological and economic cooperation will increase the possibility of realizing scenarios such as the one suggested by Williams.