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Energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of China’s road transport sector have been increasing rapidly in recent years. Previous studies on the future trends trend to focus on the national picture and cannot offer regional insights. We build a novel bottom-up model to estimate the future energy demand and GHG emissions of China’s road transport at a provincial level, considering local economic development, population and policies. Detailed technical characteristics of the future vehicle fleets are analyzed in several up-to date scenarios. The results indicate that China’s vehicle stock will keep increasing to 543 million by 2050. The total direct petroleum demand and associated GHG emissions will peak at 508 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 1500 million tonnes CO 2 equivalent (Mt CO 2,e ) around 2030 in the Reference scenario. Natural gas vehicle diffusion has a large impact on petroleum demand reduction in the short term, with decreases of 41–46 Mtoe in 2050. Compared to the Reference case, battery electric and fuel cell vehicles will reduce petroleum demand by 94–157 and 28–54 Mtoe in 2050, respectively. When combined with decarbonization of future power supply, battery electric vehicles can play a significant role in reducing Well-to-Wheels GHG emissions in 2050 with 295–449 Mt CO 2,e more reductions. The spatial distributions of future vehicle stock, energy demand and GHG emissions vary among provinces and show a generally downward trend from east to west. Policy recommendations are made in terms of the development of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies considering provincial differences, expansion of natural gas vehicle market and acceleration of electric vehicle market penetration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expandable electric vehicle (EV) life-cycle analysis (LCA) model (EV-LCA) is developed to analyze the life cycle (LC) energy consumption (EC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of EVs considering variations in electricity grid mix and vehicle energy efficiency performance. Employing EV-LCA as a common model platform, a case study is conducted to assess the LC GHG emissions of an average passenger battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with a comparative internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) under real-world driving conditions in China, the U.S., Japan, Canada and EU, based on country-specific data. The model is shown to be applicable and flexible to assess the average EC and GHG emissions performance of EVs at both regional and national level under large-scale adoption. The case study indicates that currently BEVs show a positive performance in GHG emissions reduction (GER) (ranging from 30% to 80%) when compared to gasoline ICEVs globally. It is also found that the GER effect of EV is highly variable geographically due to significant differences in the electricity grid mix and GHG emissions intensity of grid electricity among countries. EVs can achieve higher GER with the development of low carbon electricity in future. The GER potential of PHEV is significantly influenced by the all-electric range (AER). Several policy suggestions are presented, including the consideration of regional characteristics in GER assessment of EVs and the need to accelerate low-carbon electricity development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bottom-up methodology was employed to estimate the stock of future vehicles, including passenger vehicles, taxis, urban transit buses, non-operating buses, heavy duty trucks, medium duty trucks, logistics trucks and sanitation trucks, among 31 provinces in China. With the projection of future vehicle stock in China, we calculated the fuel demand and direct CO 2 emission from 2015 to 2050 for every five-year period and made an assessment on the potential of different fuel pathways to reduce direct CO 2 emission and fuel demand with the methodology established. This study showed that the growth of vehicle stock will reach its saturation point in about 2045. As projected, China’s vehicle population will reach 278, 481, and 546 million by 2020, 2030, and 2050 respectively. This study also shows that the fuel demand for vehicles will keep increasing until its peak in 2030, and then decline until 2050. Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) contribute the most to the energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction in the short term before 2020, while in the medium and long term, new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles (EVs), will contribute more significantly and account the main proportion of the reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mobile air conditioning (MAC) is potentially a huge source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China from a life cycle (LC) perspective as the vehicle population increases in the future. The MAC-GHG-LCA model is developed to calculate LC GHG emissions from MAC systems, covering life-span refrigerant leakage (direct emissions) and emissions caused by energy use in MAC system production and operation (indirect emissions). Using R152a and R1234yf as alternative refrigerants instead of R134a in MAC systems can decrease LC GHG emissions by 22–32% and 17–29%, respectively. Their GHG reduction benefits mainly result from their lower global warming potential (GWP) values though the indirect emissions are only slight lower or even higher than R134a. Using R744 can offer reduction in 2050 though it will cause an increase of 20% in 2020. Total LC GHG emissions from MAC systems of the whole light duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in China will be 159 million tonnes of CO 2 -equivalent in 2050 in the scenario where R134a will be the only refrigerant adopted, about 3 times that in 2015. It is found that alternative low-GWP refrigerants can help reduce LC GHG emissions from MAC systems effectively. The shift from conventional cooling and heating technology to advanced heat pump technology in electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce electricity use in MAC system operation and reduce LC GHG emissions from the MAC systems in EVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A unified and complete China life cycle model is established considering differences in various test conditions to provide a data check and harmonizing method for fuel economy for medium-and heavy-duty truck(MHDT), taking into account the differences in MHDTs weight classes, usage scenarios and power systems. Different penetration scenarios for alternative fuels are established to predict changes in MHDT fleets. The results show that hydrogen sources substantially impact the emission reduction potential of MHDTs. Renewable electrolysis and by-product hydrogen can reduce GHG emissions by 29.0–52.4%. Other hydrogen pathways, which rely on hydrogen transportation and storage technologies, will present the opportunity for emission reduction only after the grid becomes low-carbon. In terms of vehicle models, the battery mass of battery-electric MHDT accounts for over 15% of their curb weight, weakening their emission reduction benefit. By contrast, fuel cell Class 8 trucks may maximize emission reductions because of its lower mass of equipment. Under different scenarios, the MHDT fleet is expected to cut emissions by 12.1–69.9% by 2050. However, overly aggressive adoption of hydrogen could lead to an increase in emissions from 2020 to 2040. Thus, comprehensive consideration of the large-scale promotion of FC-MHDTs combined with China's energy transition and technological development is suggested. • Integral GHG emission life cycle analysis of hydrogen and fuel cell trucks in China. • Analyzed the influence of component sizing of 10 medium and heavy truck models. • Established a harmonizing method to integrate prospective studies of fuel cell trucks worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The iron and steel industry (ISI) is energy-intensive and is responsible for approximately 25% of the global direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from industrial sectors. As the largest steel producer and consumer, China bears the primary responsibility for saving energy and reducing GHG emissions; accordingly, they have developed many strategies for GHG abatement. However, owing to the high investment costs and long equipment service lives, the ISI must carefully weigh the cost and emission reduction potential of these approaches. This review discusses research findings aimed at technological improvements and ultra-low carbon technologies relevant to the ISI, emphasizing their cost-effectiveness and development prospects. Based on the life cycle analysis method, this review establishes a comprehensive analytical framework to integrate the results from different studies to consider more factors in the design of GHG emission reduction strategies. The results indicate that the full application of mainstream technological improvements can reduce CO 2 emissions by approximately 43%. Furthermore, combining these strategies with ultra-low carbon technologies can achieve a reduction of 80%–95%. The marginal cost reduction associated with implementing such technological improvements is in the range of −5 to 0.5 USD/kgCO 2. Applying carbon capture, utilization, and storage strategies or hydrogen-based technologies in China's ISI for deep decarbonization scenarios is expected to lead to cost reductions between 12 and 35 billion USD by 2050. We propose that China's ISI requires technological improvements in the short term and should prioritize ultra-low carbon technology development for the long term. [Display omitted] • Discussion of researches and pilot projects aimed at technological improvements of the iron and steel industry. • Review and potential of ultra-low carbon emission technologies in the iron and steel industry. • Overview of energy consumption and GHG emissions of the iron and steel industry. • Development strategies designed based on analysis of cost and GHG mitigation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging online car hailing services have caused many unintended consequences in urban centers such as more congested traffic and increased vehicle travels. Those unintended consequences have significant impacts on urban sustainability due to the increased fuel use and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. An evaluation model of online car hailing services was established to evaluate impact on energy use and CO 2 in China. We found online car hailing services have taken over not only private vehicle travels but also travels fulfilled by other modes such as mass public transit, walking, and bicycling. Empirical case analysis combined with real data shows the operating mechanism, quantitative research method and different future scenario analysis results of the model we developed. Our findings suggest that policies should be developed to prevent online car hailing from attracting too many public transit riders and to improve the efficiency of private vehicle travels. As online car hailing is emerging in many cities around the world, lessons learned from China will be useful to inform the development of policies to avoid unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]