1. Disease Activity Patterns in the First 5 Years After Diagnosis in Children With Ulcerative Colitis: A Population-Based Study
- Author
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Aloi, M., Bramuzzo, M., Norsa, L., Arrigo, S., Distante, M., Miele, E., Romano, C., Giobbi, C., Panceri, R., Cucchiara, S., Alvisi, P., Lombardi, G., Salvatore, S., Gatti, S., De Giacomo, C., Knafelz, D., Barera, G., Provera, S., Pastore, M., Aloi, M, Bramuzzo, M, Norsa, L, Arrigo, S, Distante, M, Miele, E, Romano, C, Giobbi, C, Panceri, R, Cucchiara, S, and Alvisi, P
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Adolescent ,Population ,Disease ,Logistic regression ,Severity of Illness Index ,Clusters ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,clusters, natural history, ulcerative colitis ,Medicine ,Humans ,Registries ,cluster ,education ,Child ,Glucocorticoids ,Colectomy ,natural history ,ulcerative colitis ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,Remission Induction ,Gastroenterology ,Area under the curve ,General Medicine ,medicine.disease ,Ulcerative colitis ,Confidence interval ,Drug Utilization ,Natural history ,Italy ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Cohort ,Disease Progression ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Colitis, Ulcerative ,Female ,business ,Follow-Up Studies - Abstract
Background The aim of this study was to define clusters of activity in a population-based cohort during the first 5 years after diagnosis in children with ulcerative colitis [UC] and to identify early prognostic risk factors. Methods All UC patients from the SIGENP IBD registry with a complete follow-up of at least 5 years were included. Active disease was defined every 6 months in the presence of at least one of the following: clinical activity [Paediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index ≥ 35]; endoscopic activity [Mayo score ≥ 1]; faecal calprotectin > 250 µg/g; hospitalization; surgery; or treatment escalation. Formula-based clusters were generated based on four published questionnaire-based activity patterns in adults, plus one additional cluster. Results In total, 226 patients were identified. Forty-two [19%] had moderate–severe chronically active disease, 31 [14%] chronic–intermittent, 75 [33%] quiescent, 54 [24%] active disease in the first 2 years after the diagnosis, then sustained remission, and 24 [11%] a remission in the first 2 years then an active disease. Mild disease onset along with a lower clinical severity not requiring the use of corticosteroids at 6 months were related to a quiescent disease course at the next follow-up (logistic model area under the curve 0.86 [95% confidence interval 0.78–0.94]; positive predictive value 67%; negative predictive value 70%). Eight per cent of patients needed surgery, none in the quiescent group [p = 0.04]. Conclusions More than one-third of children with UC present with a chronically active or intermittent course during the first 5 years of follow-up. A significant group of patients has active disease in the first 2 years and then sustained remission. Interestingly, after initial treatment, one-third of patients have well-controlled disease throughout.
- Published
- 2020