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Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions. Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO2 flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.

A meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO2, will strengthen the permafrost carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which releases CO2 and CH4. Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw1, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition2. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions3,4 that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear5,6. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO2 and CH4 for a given amount of C.

14C-CO2 measurement is an unique tool to quantify source-based emissions of CO2 for both the urban and natural environments. Acquiring a sample that temporally integrates the atmospheric 14C-CO2 signature that allows for precise 14C analysis is often necessary, but can require complex sampling devices, which can be difficult to deploy and maintain, especially for multiple locations. Here we describe our progress in developing a diffusive atmospheric CO2 molecular sieve trap, which requires no power to operate. We present results from various cleaning procedures, and rigorously tested for blank and memory effects. Traps were tested in the environment along-side conventional sampling flasks for accuracy. Results show that blank and memory effects can be minimized with thorough cleaning and by avoiding overheating, and that diffusively collected air samples agree well with traditionally canister-sampled air.

14 C measurements of CH 4 in environmental samples (e.g. soil gas, lake water, gas hydrates) can advance understanding of C cycling in terrestrial and marine systems. The measurements are particularly useful for detecting the release of old C from climate sensitive environments such as peatlands and hydrate fields. However, because 14 C CH 4 measurements tend to be complex and time consuming, they are uncommon. Here, we describe a novel vacuum line system for the preparation of CH 4 and CO 2 from environmental samples for 14 C analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The vacuum line is a flow-through system that allows rapid preparation of samples (1 h for CH 4 and CO 2 , 30 min for CH 4 alone), complete separation of CH 4 and CO 2 and is an easy addition to multipurpose CO 2 vacuum lines already in use. We evaluated the line using CH 4 and CO 2 standards with different 14 C content. For CH 4 and CO 2 , respectively, the total line blank was 0.4 ± 0.2 and 1.4 ± 0.6 μg C, the 14 C background 51.1 ± 1.2 and 48.4 ± 1.5 kyr and the precision (based on pooled standard deviation) 0.9‰ and 1.3‰. The line was designed for sample volumes of ca. 180 ml containing 0.5–1% CH 4 and CO 2 , but can be adjusted to handle lower concentration and larger volume samples. This rapid and convenient method for the preparation of CH 4 and CO 2 in environmental samples for 14 C AMS analysis should provide more opportunities for the use of 14 C CH 4 measurements in C cycle studies.

Permafrost peatlands are both an important source of atmospheric CH4 and a substantial sink for atmospheric CO2. Climate change can affect this balance, with higher temperatures resulting in the conversion of permafrost soils to wetlands and associated accelerated mineralisation and increased CH4 emission. To better understand the impact of such processes on methanogen populations, we investigated the anaerobic decay of soil carbon in a low Arctic, discontinuous permafrost peatland. Cores were collected monthly from sedge and Sphagnum mires in north Sweden during the summer of 2006. We determined CH4 concentrations and production potentials, together with variations in the size of the methanogenic community as indicated by concentrations of archaeal lipid biomarkers (phosphorylated archaeol, archaeol and hydroxyarchaeol). Concentrations of methanogen biomarkers generally were higher at the sedge site, increased with depth for all sites and months, and were usually below the detection limits in shallow (

This chapter presents an overview of the steps required to prepare a sample for radiocarbon (14C) measurement by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). These include: (1) collection of an appropriate sample that can answer the question being asked; (2) pretreatment of samples to isolate a the most representative fraction of the bulk carbon (C) or to separate total C into different components; (3) conversion of C in the sample to CO2 and/or graphite for measurement by AMS; and (4) assessing errors, especially those associated with 14C contamination that occur during processing.

Carbon fixed by vegetated coastal ecosystems (blue carbon) can mitigate anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, though its effectiveness differs with the spatial scale of interest. A literature review compiling carbon sequestration rates within key ecosystems confirms that blue carbon ecosystems are the most efficient natural carbon sinks at the plot scale, though some overlooked biogeochemical processes may lead to overestimation. Moreover, the limited spatial extent of coastal habitats minimizes their potential at the global scale, only buffering 0.42% of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2014. Still, blue carbon plays a role for countries with moderate fossil fuel emissions and extensive coastlines. In 2014, mangroves mitigated greater than 1% of national fossil fuel emissions for countries such as Bangladesh, Colombia and Nigeria. Considering that the Paris Agreement is based on nationally determined contributions, we propose that mangrove blue carbon may contribute to climate change mitigation at this scale in some instances alongside other blue carbon ecosystems.