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Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model's dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. In any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, we recommend that associated uncertainty analysis be included with perturbations of the initial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feeding habits of six deep‐sea demersal trawl‐caught macrourids on Chatham Rise, New Zealand, were examined from stomach contents during the austral summer. Three species were predominantly benthic foragers: smallbanded rattail Coelorinchus parvifasciatus on small epifaunal crustaceans, twosaddle rattail Coelorinchus biclinozonalis on epifaunal decapods and humpback rattail Coryphaenoides dossenus on benthic fishes and epifaunal decapods. Three species were predominantly benthopelagic foragers: banded rattail Coelorinchus fasciatus on hyperiid and gammarid amphipods and calanoid copepods, blackspot rattail Lucigadus nigromaculatus on small epifaunal crustaceans and suprabenthic mysids and Mahia rattail Coelorinchus matamua on epifaunal decapods and calanoid copepods. The most important predictors of diet variability were identified using distance‐based linear models and included areal predictors in C. parvifasciatus, L. nigromaculatus and C. dossenus, fish size in C. dossenus, C. biclinozonalis and C. matamua, sample year in C. biclinozonalis and C. fasciatus and depth in C. matamua. Results are compared with previously published data for four other macrourid species from the same study area. The 10 grenadier species comprise benthic, benthopelagic and mesopelagic foraging guilds. This study brings the number of grenadier species for which diet on Chatham Rise has been described in detail to 12. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chatham Rise is a highly productive deep-sea ecosystem that supports numerous substantial commercial fisheries, and is a likely candidate for an ecosystem based approach to fisheries management in New Zealand. We present the first end-to-end ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise, which is also to the best of our knowledge, the first end-to-end ecosystem model of any deep-sea ecosystem. We describe the process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse the importance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results. The model produces very similar results to fisheries stock assessment models for key fisheries species, and the population dynamics and system interactions are realistic. Confidence intervals based on bootstrapping oceanographic variables are produced. The model components that have knowledge gaps and are most likely to influence model results were oceanographic variables, and the aggregate species groups 'seabird' and 'cetacean other'. We recommend applications of the model, such as forecasting biomasses under various fishing regimes, include alternatives that vary these components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Stomachs from the sharks Dalatias licha, Centrophorus squamosus, Centroscymnus owstoni, Centroselachus crepidater, Proscymnodon plunketi, and Galeorhinus galeus were sampled from three research trawl surveys on Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand. Between 14 and 50 stomachs were examined for each species, of which 8–62% were empty. Prey were visually identified in 80 stomachs, and by DNA barcoding in a further 28 stomachs. The use of DNA methods allowed the identification of chunks of flesh found in the stomachs of D. licha and P. plunketi, and nearly doubled the rate of data accumulation for D. licha, C. squamosus, and C. owstoni. Between 84 and 223 stomachs were estimated to be needed to measure 90% of the extrapolated total prey richness. The prey of D. licha, C. squamosus, and P. plunketi were predominantly benthic or demersal fishes and cephalopods. The prey of C. owstoni and C. crepidater were predominantly mesopelagic fishes and squids. G. galeus foraged throughout the water column. Scavenging of discards from commercial fishing vessels was likely in C. squamosus, P. plunketi, and G. galeus. The diet of all species except C. crepidater was dominated by the commercially important benthopelagic species hoki Macruronus novaezelandiae. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]