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Introduction: Chagas disease is a severe parasitic illness that is prevalent in Latin America and often goes unaddressed. Early detection and treatment are critical in preventing the progression of the illness and its associated life-threatening complications. In recent years, machine learning algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for disease prediction and diagnosis. Methods: In this study, we developed machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of Chagas disease based on five general factors: age, gender, history of living in a mud or wooden house, history of being bitten by a triatomine bug, and family history of Chagas disease. We analyzed data from the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study (REDS) to train five popular machine learning algorithms. The sample comprised 2,006 patients, divided into 75% for training and 25% for testing algorithm performance. We evaluated the model performance using precision, recall, and AUC-ROC metrics. Results: The Adaboost algorithm yielded an AUC-ROC of 0.772, a precision of 0.199, and a recall of 0.612. We simulated the decision boundary using various thresholds and observed that in this dataset a threshold of 0.45 resulted in a 100% recall. This finding suggests that employing such a threshold could potentially save 22.5% of the cost associated with mass testing of Chagas disease. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the potential of applying machine learning to improve the sensitivity and effectiveness of Chagas disease diagnosis and prevention. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of integrating socio-demographic and environmental factors into neglected disease prediction models to enhance their performance. Author summary: Chagas disease, a severe parasitic illness prevalent in Latin America, poses significant challenges due to delayed detection and treatment. Machine learning algorithms, advanced computer programs, have emerged as valuable tools for disease prediction and diagnosis. In our study, we utilized these algorithms to forecast Chagas disease risk based on factors such as age, gender, and living conditions. Drawing on data from the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study (REDS), we trained five algorithms, with one showing promising results, achieving an impressive score of 0.772 out of 1. By establishing a specific threshold, we could potentially reduce testing costs while maintaining high detection rates. This research highlights the potential of machine learning in improving Chagas disease diagnosis and prevention by incorporating socio-demographic and environmental factors. Integrating these elements into predictive models has the potential to enhance their effectiveness and sensitivity, thereby improving disease management outcomes and ultimately reducing the burden of Chagas disease in affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Analyze the hospitalizations of patients admitted for Chagas disease with gastro-intestinal involvement (CD-GI) in the Brazilian Unified Health System, describe the epidemiological profile, mortality and costs. Methods: This is an observational study that uses secondary data from the National Hospital Information System (SIH-SUS) for the years 2017–2019. CD-GI admissions were defined by specific ICD-10 codes that identify the main diagnosis. Results: From 2017 to 2019, there were 4,407 hospitalizations for CD-GI in Brazil, considering only public hospitals and those associated with the SUS. This corresponds to an average of 1,470 hospitalizations per year, or 0.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, with significant regional variation. Hospitalizations increased with age and were slightly higher in men. More than 60% were emergencies and in 50% the procedure performed was surgical. The most used code was the one for megaesophagus followed by megacolon. In-hospital mortality was 5.8% and 17.2% went to intensive care units. The median cost was USD$ 553.15 per hospitalization, and an overall cost of USD$ 812,579.98 per year to the SUS budget. Conclusion: The numbers, rates and costs presented here are possibly underestimated but they give us an idea of the overall profile of hospitalizations due to CD-GI, which are not rare and are related to significant in-hospital mortality. CD-GI is a neglected manifestation of a neglected disease. Author summary: The gastrointestinal involvement of Chagas disease is a neglected manifestation of a neglected disease. Despite this, it causes immense suffering to those affected, which lasts for years. The diagnosis is usually late and the treatment is difficult to access and inadequate, causing the patient to be operated on an emergency basis with major complications and, consequently, high mortality. Here we present the epidemiological profile and costs of public and government-funded hospitalizations, using the Brazilian national database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease remains a major cause of cardiovascular death in endemic areas. Focused echocardiography (FoCUS) is a point-of-care means of assessing cardiac function which can be useful for the diagnosis of cardiac involvement. Objective: This study aims evaluating the characteristics of validity and reliability of FoCUS applied on Chagas disease patients. Methods: Patients with Chagas disease coming from an endemic area were selected from a large cohort (SaMi-Trop). A simplified echocardiogram with only three images was extracted from the conventional echocardiogram performed in this cohort. The images were evaluated by an observer who was blinded to the clinical and echocardiographic data, to determine the accuracy and reliability of FoCUS for cardiac assessment. The analysis constituted of 5 prespecified variables, dichotomized in absence or presence: left ventricular (LV) size and systolic function, right ventricular (RV) size and systolic function, and LV aneurysm. Results: We included 725 patients with a mean age of 63.4 ± 12.3 years, 483 (67%) female. Abnormal electrocardiogram was observed in 81.5% of the patients. Left and right ventricular dysfunctions were found in 103 (14%) and 49 (7%) of the patients, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 84%, 94%, 70% and 97% for LV enlargement and 81%, 93%, 68% and 97% for LV systolic dysfunction, respectively, and 46%, 99%, 60% and 98% for RV dilatation, and 37%, 100%, 100% and 96% for RV dysfunction, respectively. Inter and intraobserver agreement were 61% and 87% for LV enlargement and 63% and 92% for LV dysfunction, respectively, and 50% and 49% for RV size and 46% and 79% for RV dysfunction, respectively. LV apical aneurysm was found in 45 patients (6.2%) with the lowest sensitivity of FoCUS study (11%; 95% CI 2–28%). Conclusions: FoCUS showed satisfactory values of validity and reliability for assessment of cardiac chambers in patients with Chagas disease, except for apical aneurysm. This tool can identify heart disease with potential impact on patient management in the limited-resource setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effectiveness of anti-parasite treatment with benznidazole in the chronic Chagas disease (ChD) remains uncertain. We evaluated, using data from the NIH-sponsored SaMi-Trop prospective cohort study, if previous treatment with benznidazole is associated with lower mortality, less advanced cardiac disease and lower parasitemia in patients with chronic ChD. Methods: The study enrolled 1,959 ChD patients and abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG) from in 21 remote towns in Brazil. A total of 1,813 patients were evaluated at baseline and after two years of follow-up. Those who received at least one course of benznidazole were classified as treated group (TrG = 493) and those who were never treated as control group (CG = 1,320). The primary outcome was death after two-year follow-up; the secondary outcomes were presence at the baseline of major ChD-associated ECG abnormalities, NT-ProBNP levels suggestive of heart failure, and PCR positivity. Results: Mortality after two years was 6.3%; it was lower in the TrG (2.8%) than the CG (7.6%); adjusted OR: 0.37 (95%CI: 0.21;0.63). The ECG abnormalities typical for ChD and high age-adjusted NT-ProBNP levels suggestive of heart failure were lower in the TrG than the CG, OR: 0.35 [CI: 0.23;0.53]. The TrG had significantly lower rates of PCR positivity, OR: 0.35 [CI: 0.27;0.45]. Conclusion: Patients previously treated with benznidazole had significantly reduced parasitemia, a lower prevalence of markers of severe cardiomyopathy, and lower mortality after two years of follow-up. If used in the early phases, benznidazole treatment may improve clinical and parasitological outcomes in patients with chronic ChD. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial registration: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individuals in the indeterminate phase of Chagas disease are considered to have mortality rates similar to those of the overall population. This study compares mortality rates among blood donors seropositive for Chagas disease and negative controls in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Methodology/principal findings: This is a retrospective cohort study of blood donors from 1996 to 2000: 2842 seropositive and 5684 seronegative for Chagas disease. Death status was ascertained by performing probabilistic record linkage (RL) with the Brazil national mortality information system (SIM). RL was assessed in a previous validation study. Cox Regression was used to derive hazard ratios (HR), adjusting for confounders. RL identified 159 deaths among the 2842 seropositive blood donors (5.6%) and 103 deaths among the 5684 seronegative (1.8%). Out of the 159 deaths among seropositive donors, 26 had the 10th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) indicating Chagas disease as the underlying cause of death (B57.0/B57.5), 23 had ICD-10 codes (I42.0/I42.2/I47.0/I47.2/I49.0/I50.0/I50.1/ I50.9/I51.7) indicating cardiac abnormalities possibly related to Chagas disease listed as an underlying or associated cause of death, with the others having no mention of Chagas disease in part I of the death certificate. Donors seropositive for Chagas disease had a 2.3 times higher risk of death due to all causes (95% Confidence Interval (95% CI), 1.8–3.0) than seronegative donors. When considering deaths due to Chagas disease or those that had underlying causes of cardiac abnormalities related to Chagas disease, seropositive donors had a risk of death 17.9 (95% CI, 6.3–50.8) times greater than seronegative donors. Conclusions/significance: There is an excess risk of death in donors seropositive blood for Chagas disease compared to seronegative donors. Chagas disease is an under-reported cause of death in the Brazilian mortality database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There are few contemporary cohorts of Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive individuals, and the basic clinical epidemiology of Chagas disease is poorly understood. Herein, we report the incidence of cardiomyopathy and death associated with T. cruzi seropositivity.Methods: Participants were selected in blood banks at 2 Brazilian centers. Cases were defined as T. cruzi-seropositive blood donors. T. cruzi-seronegative controls were matched for age, sex, and period of donation. Patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy were recruited from a tertiary outpatient service. Participants underwent medical examination, blood collection, ECG, and echocardiogram at enrollment (2008-2010) and at follow-up (2018-2019). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and development of cardiomyopathy, defined as the presence of a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% or QRS complex duration ≥120 ms, or both. To handle loss to follow-up, a sensitivity analysis was performed using inverse probability weights for selection.Results: We enrolled 499 T. cruzi-seropositive donors (age 48±10 years, 52% male), 488 T. cruzi-seronegative donors (age 49±10 years, 49% male), and 101 patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy (age 48±8 years, 59% male). The mortality in patients with established cardiomyopathy was 80.9 deaths/1000 person-years (py) (54/101, 53%) and 15.1 deaths/1000 py (17/114, 15%) in T. cruzi-seropositive donors with cardiomyopathy at baseline. Among T. cruzi-seropositive donors without cardiomyopathy at baseline, mortality was 3.7 events/1000 py (15/385, 4%), which was no different from T. cruzi-seronegative donors with 3.6 deaths/1000 py (17/488, 3%). The incidence of cardiomyopathy in T. cruzi-seropositive donors was 13.8 (95% CI, 9.5-19.6) events/1000 py (32/262, 12%) compared with 4.6 (95% CI, 2.3-8.3) events/1000 py (11/277, 4%) in seronegative controls, with an absolute incidence difference associated with T. cruzi seropositivity of 9.2 (95% CI, 3.6-15.0) events/1000 py. T. cruzi antibody level at baseline was associated with development of cardiomyopathy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1-1.8]).Conclusions: We present a comprehensive description of the natural history of T. cruzi seropositivity in a contemporary patient population. The results highlight the central importance of anti-T. cruzi antibody titer as a marker of Chagas disease activity and risk of progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]