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How do natural and man-made disasters faced by central bankers in their impressionable years influence their decision-making? Using data on a large panel of central bankers from developing and developed countries, we find that central bankers who have experienced a larger number of natural as well as man-made disasters tend to act in a more conservative way. In particular, the experience of famines is the most traumatizing and influential. The results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and alternative measures of disasters, and reveal strong behavioural differences when comparing before and after the 2008 financial crisis. JEL codes: E02; E58; E71; 01 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of natural disasters experienced in the early life of central bankers to assess their reaction to present‐day similar events. We use a panel dataset covering 68 (developed and developing) countries, for the period 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4, to examine how the very‐short‐run dynamics of inflation is affected by the (actual) natural disasters, and how past experiences affect the immediate reaction of central bankers to these shocks. Our results reveal that the effect of early‐life experiences is significant: central bankers who have been exposed to disasters in early life tend to manage inflation in a more conservative way in the very‐short‐run. The effect disappears over the course of one year, and central bankers with superior voting power have a larger influence on outcomes. Younger central bankers are more conservative than older ones, which may reveal that the early‐life disasters' impact decays over time. The European Central Bank (ECB) appears immune to such influences, in conformity with expectations given the ECB's federal architecture and the size of the area it administers. The behavior revealed by our results thus signifies that central banks tend, on average to avoid any inflationary bias, inducing that the long‐run impact of a disaster suffered in the formative years of an individual can bring socially positive consequences, when such an individual becomes governor of her country's central bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate that even though during WWII the interest rate was close to zero supporting the financing of the military effort, dissent inside the FOMC occurred with a similar frequency to other policy episodes. Our analysis highlights that the debates which resulted in dissents turned around two broad issues: the size of the Fed's balance sheet as well as the functioning of and communication with financial markets. Thus, we argue that the conventional view depicting the Fed as merely accommodating treasury needs should be revised. Our detailed investigation of dissents emphasises the modernity of the objections raised by Fed officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of the biographical experience of monetary policy committee members on their performance in managing inflation and output volatility. Our sample covers major OECD countries in the 1999 to 2010 period. Using data envelopment analysis, we study the efficiency of monetary policy committees. Then, we look at the determinants of these performances. The results in particular show that (i) in crisis times, a smaller committee is more efficient, (ii) policymakers' background influence the performance, with a positive role for committee members coming from academia, central banks and the financial sector, although the latter lost their edge during the Great Recession. It is also shown that some committees have reduced the inefficiency created by the crisis more rapidly than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study examines public opinion in 15 European countries, on the proposal to establish an independent European Central Bank (ECB). Using data from Eurobarometer surveys for 1998 to 2000, which included a specific question on this issue, we show that inflation performance is not sufficient to explain people''s preference for an independent central bank: personal characteristics and circumstances have a stronger impact, with gender, employment status, education level, income quartiles, and degree of information and civic concern showing particular relevance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We contrast the influence of demography and Central Bank Independence (CBI) on inflation. The recent demographic trends in developed countries are shown to weight more on inflation than CBI, while the contrary stands for the period from 1960 to 1979. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]