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Background: We assessed how the diagnosis of Celiac Disease (CD) is made and how the new ESPGHAN guidelines can be applied in children from countries with different resources., Methods: A real life prospective study was performed in 14 centres of 13 different Mediterranean countries. Participants were asked to apply the usual diagnostic work-up for CD according to their diagnostic facilities., Results: There were 1974 patients enrolled in the study, mean age 4 years, 10 months; 865 male, 1109 female. CD was confirmed in 511 (25.9%) and was unconfirmed in 1391 (70.5%) patients; 14 patients were diagnosed as having CD according to the new ESPGHAN guidelines, 43 patients were classified as having potential CD. In all participating countries the diagnosis of CD relied on histology of duodenal biopsy; in 5 countries, HLA, and in one country endomysial antibodies (EMA) were not available. Symptoms did not add a significant increase to the pre-test probability of serological tests. The positive predictive value of tissue transglutaminase type 2 (tTG) antibodies performed with different kits but all corresponding to those recommended by ESPGHAN was 96.1% (95% CI 94-97.9%) in presence of tTG > 10xULN. In 135 patients with tTG >10xULN, HLA genotyping was performed and in all it was compatible with CD., Conclusions: The results of our study show that CD diagnosis still relies on intestinal biopsy in the Mediterranean area. New ESPGHAN criteria are not applicable in 5 countries due to lack of resources needed to perform HLA genotyping and, in one country, EMA assay. Further simplification of the new ESPGHAN guidelines might be made according to what preliminarily the present results suggest if confirmed by new prospective studies.

Background: The World Gastroenterology Organization recommends developing national guidelines for the diagnosis of Celiac Disease (CD): hence a profile of the diagnosis of CD in each country is required. We aim to describe a cross-sectional picture of the clinical features and diagnostic facilities in 16 countries of the Mediterranean basin. Since a new ESPGHAN diagnostic protocol was recently published, our secondary aim is to estimate how many cases in the same area could be identified without a small intestinal biopsy., Methods: By a stratified cross-sectional retrospective study design, we examined clinical, histological and laboratory data from 749 consecutive unselected CD children diagnosed by national referral centers., Results: The vast majority of cases were diagnosed before the age of 10 (median: 5 years), affected by diarrhea, weight loss and food refusal, as expected. Only 59 cases (7.8%) did not suffer of major complaints. Tissue transglutaminase (tTG) assay was available, but one-third of centers reported financial constraints in the regular purchase of the assay kits. 252 cases (33.6%) showed tTG values over 10 times the local normal limit. Endomysial antibodies and HLA typing were routinely available in only half of the centers. CD was mainly diagnosed from small intestinal biopsy, available in all centers. Based on these data, only 154/749 cases (20.5%) would have qualified for a diagnosis of CD without a small intestinal biopsy, according to the new ESPGHAN protocol., Conclusions: This cross-sectional study of CD in the Mediterranean referral centers offers a puzzling picture of the capacities to deal with the emerging epidemic of CD in the area, giving a substantive support to the World Gastroenterology Organization guidelines.

Aim: To estimate the burden of undiagnosed celiac disease (CD) in the Mediterranean area in terms of morbidity, mortality and health cost., Methods: For statistics regarding the population of each country in the Mediterranean area, we accessed authoritative international sources (World Bank, World Health Organization and United Nations). The prevalence of CD was obtained for most countries from published reports. An overall prevalence rate of 1% cases/total population was finally estimated to represent the frequency of the disease in the area, since none of the available confidence intervals of the reported rates significantly excluded this rate. The distribution of symptoms and complications was obtained from reliable reports in the same cohort. A standardized mortality rate of 1.8 was obtained from recent reports. Crude health cost was estimated for the years between symptoms and diagnosis for adults and children, and was standardized for purchasing power parity to account for the different economic profiles amongst Mediterranean countries., Results: In the next 10 years, the Mediterranean area will have about half a billion inhabitants, of which 120 million will be children. The projected number of CD diagnoses in 2020 is 5 million cases (1 million celiac children), with a relative increase of 11% compared to 2010. Based on the 2010 rate, there will be about 550,000 symptomatic adults and about 240,000 sick children: 85% of the symptomatic patients will suffer from gastrointestinal complaints, 40% are likely to have anemia, 30% will likely have osteopenia, 20% of children will have short stature, and 10% will have abnormal liver enzymes. The estimated standardized medical costs for symptomatic celiac patients during the delay between symptom onset and diagnosis (mean 6 years for adults, 2 years for children) will be about €4 billion (€387 million for children) over the next 10 years. A delay in diagnosis is expected to increase mortality: about 600,000 celiac patients will die in the next 10 years, with an excess of 44.4% vs age- and sex-matched controls., Conclusion: In the near future, the burden of CD will increase tremendously. Few Mediterranean countries are able to face this expanding epidemic alone.