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Background: A study was conducted to develop and validate a screening model using risk scores to identify individuals at high risk for developing upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers in an Indian population.Methods: A hospital-based case-control study (n = 480) was conducted in Pune, India. We assessed risk factors for UADT cancers by administering a questionnaire through face-to-face interviews. We developed a risk factor model based on the statistically significant risk factors in multiple logistic regression. A total, single risk score was calculated per individual based on the adjusted odds ratio for each of their risk factors. Standard receiver operator characteristic curve was plotted for the total score and the presence of UADT cancers. The stratification ability of the model was determined using the c-statistic. The optimal criterion value was determined at the point on curve at which the Youden's index was maximal. Confidence intervals were calculated by bootstrapping.Results: Total risk score for each individual ranged from 0 to 26. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95.8; P < 0.001) suggests strong predictive ability. A risk score criterion value of ≤10 produced optimal sensitivity (93.5%), specificity (71.1%), false-positive rate (28.8%), false-negative rate (6.4%), positive predictive value (74.8%), and negative predictive value (96.6%).Conclusion: This risk factor-based model has the potential of satisfactorily screening and detection of UADT cancers at its early stage in a high-risk population like India. The identified at-risk individuals can then be targeted for clinical examination and for focused preventive/treatment measures at the hospital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We investigated the prevalence of, and risk factors for, oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) in rural Sri Lanka. A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted by interview and oral examination of 1029 subjects aged over 30years. A community-based nested case-control study then took those with OPMDs as ‘cases’, “controls” being those with no oral abnormalities at time of initial screening. The prevalence of OPMD was 11.3% (95% CI: 9.4–13.2), after weighting for place of residence and gender. Risk factors were betel-quid (BQ) chewing daily [OR=10.6 (95% CI: 3.6–31.0)] and alcohol drinking daily or weekly [OR=3.55 (1.6–8.0)]. A significant dose–response relationship existed for BQ chewing. Smoking did not emerge when adjusted for covariates. A synergistic effect of chewing and alcohol consumption existed. The attributable risk (AR) of daily BQ chewing was 90.6%, the population AR 84%. This study demonstrates high prevalence of OPMD, betel-quid chewing with or without tobacco being the major risk factor. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]