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Even though sunlight is viewed as the most important determinant of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status, several European studies have observed higher 25(OH)D concentrations among north-Europeans than south-Europeans. We studied the association between geographical latitude (derived from ecological data) and 25(OH)D status in six European countries using harmonised immunoassay data from 81 084 participants in the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project (male sex 48·9 %; median age 50·8 years; examination period 1984–2014). Quantile regression models, adjusted for age, sex, decade and calendar week of sampling and time from sampling to analysis, were used for between-country comparisons. Up until the median percentile, the ordering of countries by 25(OH)D status (from highest to lowest) was as follows: Sweden (at 65·6–63·8°N), Germany (at 48·4°N), Finland (at 65·0–60·2°N), Italy (at 45·6–41·5°N), Scotland (at 58·2–55·1°N) and Spain (at 41·5°N). From the 75th percentile and upwards, Finland had higher values than Germany. As an example, using the Swedish cohort as a comparator, the median 25(OH)D concentration was 3·03, 3·28, 5·41, 6·54 and 9·28 ng/ml lower in the German, Finnish, Italian, Scottish and Spanish cohort, respectively (P -value < 0·001 for all comparisons). The ordering of countries was highly consistent in subgroup analyses by sex, age, and decade and season of sampling. In conclusion, we confirmed the previous observation of a north-to-south gradient of 25(OH)D status in Europe, with higher percentile values among north-Europeans than south-Europeans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of heart failure among diabetic individuals is high, even under tight glycemic control. The correlates and mediators of heart failure risk in individuals with diabetes need more elucidation in large population-based cohorts with long follow-up times and a wide panel of biologically relevant biomarkers. Methods: In a population-based sample of 3834 diabetic and 90,177 non-diabetic individuals, proportional hazards models and mediation analysis were used to assess the relation of conventional heart failure risk factors and biomarkers with incident heart failure. Results: Over a median follow-up of 13.8 years, a total of 652 (17.0%) and 5524 (6.1%) cases of incident heart failure were observed in participants with and without diabetes, respectively. 51.4% were women and the mean age at baseline was 48.7 (standard deviation [SD] 12.5) years. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for heart failure among diabetic individuals was 2.70 (95% confidence interval, 2.49–2.93) compared to non-diabetic participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as smoking (diabetes: HR 2.07 [1.59–2.69]; non-diabetes: HR 1.85 [1.68–2.02]), BMI (diabetes: HR 1.30 [1.18–1.42]; non-diabetes: HR 1.40 [1.35–1.47]), baseline myocardial infarction (diabetes: HR 2.06 [1.55–2.75]; non-diabetes: HR 2.86 [2.50–3.28]), and baseline atrial fibrillation (diabetes: HR 1.51 [0.82–2.80]; non-diabetes: HR 2.97 [2.21–4.00]) had the strongest associations with incident heart failure. In addition, biomarkers for cardiac strain (represented by nT-proBNP, diabetes: HR 1.26 [1.19–1.34]; non-diabetes: HR 1.43 [1.39–1.47]), myocardial injury (hs-TnI, diabetes: HR 1.10 [1.04–1.16]; non-diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.10–1.16]), and inflammation (hs-CRP, diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.03–1.24]; non-diabetes: HR 1.29 [1.25–1.34]) were also associated with incident heart failure. In general, all these associations were equally strong in non-diabetic and diabetic individuals. However, the strongest mediators of heart failure in diabetes were the direct effect of diabetes status itself (relative effect share 43.1% [33.9–52.3] and indirect effects (effect share 56.9% [47.7-66.1]) mediated by obesity (BMI, 13.2% [10.3–16.2]), cardiac strain/volume overload (nT-proBNP, 8.4% [-0.7–17.4]), and hyperglycemia (glucose, 12.0% [4.2–19.9]). Conclusions: The findings suggest that the main mediators of heart failure in diabetes are obesity, hyperglycemia, and cardiac strain/volume overload. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors are strongly related to incident heart failure, but these associations are not stronger in diabetic than in non-diabetic individuals. Active measurement of relevant biomarkers could potentially be used to improve prevention and prediction of heart failure in high-risk diabetic patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease has emerged as a strong cardiovascular risk factor, and in many current guidelines, it is already considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent. Routinely, creatinine has been used as the main marker of renal function, but recently, cystatin C emerged as a more promising marker. The aim of this study was to assess the comparative cardiovascular and mortality risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using cystatin C-based and creatinine-based equations of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants of population-based and disease cohorts.Methods: The present study has been conducted within the BiomarCaRE project, with harmonized data from 20 population-based cohorts (n = 76,954) from 6 European countries and 3 cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts (n = 4982) from Germany. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for the various CKD definitions with adverse outcomes and mortality after adjustment for the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) variables and study center. Main outcome measures were cardiovascular diseases, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality.Results: The overall prevalence of CKD stage 3-5 by creatinine- and cystatin C-based eGFR, respectively, was 3.3% and 7.4% in the population-based cohorts and 13.9% and 14.4% in the disease cohorts. CKD was an important independent risk factor for subsequent CVD events and mortality. For example, in the population-based cohorts, the HR for CVD mortality was 1.72 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.92) with creatinine-based CKD and it was 2.14 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.40) based on cystatin-based CKD compared to participants without CKD. In general, the HRs were higher for cystatin C-based CKD compared to creatinine-based CKD, for all three outcomes and risk increased clearly below the conventional threshold for CKD, also in older adults. Net reclassification indices were larger for a cystatin-C based CKD definition. Differences in HRs (between the two CKD measures) in the disease cohorts were less pronounced than in the population-based cohorts.Conclusion: CKD is an important risk factor for subsequent CVD events and total mortality. However, point estimates of creatinine- and cystatin C-based CKD differed considerably between low- and high-risk populations. Especially in low-risk settings, the use of cystatin C-based CKD may result in more accurate risk estimates and have better prognostic value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphs and tables are indispensable aids to quantitative research. When developing a clinical prediction rule that is based on a cardiovascular risk score, there are many visual displays that can assist in developing the underlying statistical model, testing the assumptions made in this model, evaluating and presenting the resultant score. All too often, researchers in this field follow formulaic recipes without exploring the issues of model selection and data presentation in a meaningful and thoughtful way. Some ideas on how to use visual displays to make wise decisions and present results that will both inform and attract the reader are given. Ideas are developed, and results tested, using subsets of the data that were used to develop the ASSIGN cardiovascular risk score, as used in Scotland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: Elevated uric acid is a prevalent condition with controversial health consequences. Observational studies disagree with regard to the relationship of uric acid with mortality, and with factors modifying this relationship. Objective: We examined the association of serum uric acid with mortality in 15,083 participants in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) Study. Methods: Serum uric acid was measured at study enrollment. Death was ascertained using both the Scottish death register and record linkage. Results: During a median follow-up of 23 years, there were 3980 deaths. In Cox proportional hazards models with sexes combined, those in the highest fifth of uric acid had significantly greater mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.31) compared with the second fifth, after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship was modified by sex (P-interaction = 0.002) with adjusted HRs of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.40, 2.04) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.14) in women and men, respectively. Compared with the second fifth, the highest fifth of uric acid was most associated with kidney-related death (HR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.32). Conclusion: Elevated uric acid is associated with earlier mortality, especially in women. Future studies should evaluate mechanisms for these interactions and explore the strong association with renal-related mortality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary. There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit, plasma viscosity and fibrinogen) are associated with an increased risk of incident cardiovascular events; however, their associations with mortality are not established. We therefore studied the associations of these variables with cardiovascular events and total mortality in 1238 men and women aged 25–64 years, followed for 13 years in the first North Glasgow MONICA (MONItoring CArdiovascular disease) survey and West of Scotland centres in the Scottish Heart Health Study. After adjustment for age and sex, increasing whole blood viscosity, plasma viscosity, haematocrit and fibrinogen (analysed by both von Clauss and heat precipitation assays) were significantly associated with mortality. Only the association for fibrinogen (von Clauss assay) remained significant after adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors. We conclude that clottable fibrinogen may be independently associated with mortality. However, the significance of this association, and the extent to which viscosity is associated with mortality, remain to be established in larger studies and meta-analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Editorial. Comments on the research paper on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in relation to the body mass index of middle aged British men in the late 1970s. Perils of obesity; Relation of body contour with risk factors such as cholesterol and alcohol consumption.

The author reflects on the decreasing incidences of coronary heart disease in developed countries. He emphasizes the new initiatives Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study in the US and the World Health Organization (MONItoring trends and determinantsin CArdiovascular disease) project. He notes that standards of population risk factor measurements led by the former MONICA Data Centre in Helsinki, Switzerland facilitates prediction, comparison and possible action.