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Objective: The European Society of Cardiology's prevention guideline suggests that the risk of total (fatal plus non-fatal) cardiovascular disease (CVD) may be calculated from the risk of CVD mortality using a fixed multiplier (3×). However, the proposed multiplier has not been validated. We investigated the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality in a large population-based cohort., Methods: CVD mortality and total CVD (fatal plus non-fatal CVD requiring hospitalisation) were analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimates among 24 014 men and women aged 39-79 years without baseline CVD or diabetes mellitus in the prospective population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort. CVD outcomes included death and hospitalisations for ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease or aortic aneurysm. The main study outcome was the ratio of 10-year total CVD to 10-year CVD mortality stratified by age and sex., Results: Ten year CVD mortality was 3.9% (900 CVD deaths, 95% CI 3.6% to 4.1%); the rate of total CVD outcomes was 21.2% (4978 fatal or non-fatal CVD outcomes, 95% CI 20.7% to 21.8%). The overall ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 5.4. However, we found major differences in this ratio when stratified by gender and age. In young women (39-50 years), the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 28.5, in young men (39-50 years) 11.7. In the oldest age group, these ratios were considerably lower (3.2 in women and 2.4 in men aged 75-79 years)., Conclusions: The relationship between 10-year total CVD and CVD mortality is dependent on age and sex, and cannot be estimated using a fixed multiplier. Using CVD mortality to estimate total CVD risk leads to serious underestimation of risk, particularly in younger age groups, and particularly in women., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Aims: To compare the impact of three major guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD)., Methods and Results: 21,263 men and women aged 39-79 years from the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer) Norfolk cohort were retrospectively classified at baseline by statin therapy recommendations according to the NICE, ESC and ATPIII CVD prevention guidelines. Recommendations based on baseline data were related to 10-year follow-up to calculate number of new CVD events that could be prevented by statins, number-needed-to-treat (NNT) and CVD incidence decrease. Statin therapy was recommended to 34% by the NICE guideline, 29% by ESC and 32% by ATPIII. A total of 263 events could potentially have been prevented by application of the NICE guideline, 219 by ESC and 199 by ATPIII. The NNT with statins over 10 years was 27 with the NICE guideline, 28 with ESC and 34 with ATPIII. Application of the NICE guideline could have decreased CVD incidence by 13%; using ESC guidelines the figure is 11% and with ATPIII it is 10%., Conclusions: The NICE guideline selected greater percentages of elderly and subjects with prevalent CVD risk factors. It performed best in recommending statins and could have prevented the greatest number of CVD events. With all guidelines, nearly half the subjects who developed a CVD event were not considered eligible for statins at baseline. Less selective prevention strategies need to be explored.

Background: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established., Methods: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared., Results: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences., Conclusions: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

Introduction: A large proportion of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden can potentially be prevented by primary prevention programs addressing major causal risk factors. A Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback for individual health promotion is a promising strategy. We evaluated the effect on CVD risk of such a program among employees of a Dutch worksite., Methods: We conducted a prospective follow-up study among 368 employees who voluntarily participated in a Web-based HRA program at a single Dutch worksite in 2008. The program included a multicomponent HRA through a Web-based electronic questionnaire, biometrics, and laboratory evaluation. The results were combined with health behavior change theory to generate tailored motivational and educational health advice. On request, a health counseling session with the program physician was available. Follow-up data on CVD risk were collected 1 year after initial participation. The primary outcome was a change in Framingham CVD risk at 6 months relative to baseline. We checked for a possible background effect of an increased health consciousness as a consequence of program introduction at the worksite by comparing baseline measurements of early program participants with baseline measurements of participants who completed the program 6 months later., Results: A total of 176 employees completed follow-up measurements after a mean of 7 months. There was a graded relation between CVD risk changes and baseline risk, with a relative reduction of 17.9% (P = 0.001) in the high-risk category (baseline CVD risk ≥ 20%). Changes were not explained by additional health counseling, medication, or an increase in health consciousness within the company., Conclusions: Voluntary participation in a Web-based HRA with tailored feedback at the worksite reduced CVD risk by nearly 18% among participants at high CVD risk and by nearly 5% among all participants. Web-based HRA could improve CVD risk in similar populations. Future research should focus on the persistence of the effects underlying the CVD risk reduction.

Objective: To appraise guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment to guide selection of screening interventions for a health check., Data Sources: Guidelines in the English language published between January 1, 2003, and May 2, 2009, were retrieved using MEDLINE and CINAHL. This was supplemented by searching the National Guideline Clearinghouse, National Library for Health, Canadian Medical Association Infobase, and G-I-N International Guideline Library., Study Selection: We included guidelines developed on behalf of professional organizations from Western countries, containing recommendations on cardiovascular risk assessment for the apparently healthy population. Titles and abstracts were assessed by 2 independent reviewers. Of 1984 titles identified, 27 guidelines met our criteria., Data Extraction: Rigor of guideline development was assessed by 2 independent reviewers. One reviewer extracted information on conflicts of interest and recommendations., Results: Sixteen of 27 guidelines reported conflicts of interest and 17 showed considerable rigor. These included recommendations on assessment of total cardiovascular risk (7 guidelines), dyslipidemia (2), hypertension (2), and dysglycemia (7). Recommendations on total cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia included prediction models integrating multiple risk factors, whereas remaining recommendations were focused on single risk factors. No consensus was found on recommended target populations, treatment thresholds, and screening tests., Conclusions: Differences among the guidelines imply important variation in allocation of preventive interventions. To make informed decisions, physicians should use only the recommendations from rigorously developed guidelines.