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Background and aimsLipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is an independent risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) but is not included in the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). We aimed to assess how well the PCE predict 10-year event rates in individuals with elevated Lp(a), and whether the addition of Lp(a) improves risk prediction.MethodsWe compared observed versus PCE-predicted 10-year ASCVD event rates, stratified by Lp(a) level and ASCVD risk category using Poisson regression, and evaluated the association between Lp(a) > 50 mg/dL and ASCVD risk using Cox proportional hazards models in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We evaluated the C-index and net reclassification improvement (NRI) with addition of Lp(a) to the PCE.ResultsThe study population included 6639 individuals (20%, n = 1325 with elevated Lp(a)). The PCE accurately predicted 10-year event rates for individuals with elevated Lp(a) with observed event rates falling within predicted limits. Elevated Lp(a) was associated with increased risk of CVD events overall (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.60), particularly in low (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.40-4.31), and high-risk (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.02-1.96) individuals. Continuous NRI (95% CI) with the addition of Lp(a) to the PCE for CVD was 0.0963 (0.0158-0.1953) overall, and 0.2999 (0.0876, 0.5525) among low-risk individuals.ConclusionsThe PCE performs well for event rate prediction in individuals with elevated Lp(a). However, Lp(a) is associated with increased CVD risk, and the addition of Lp(a) to the PCE improves risk prediction, particularly among low-risk individuals. These results lend support for increasing use of Lp(a) testing for risk assessment.

IntroductionWe investigated the associations of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with risk of developing clinical peripheral artery disease (PAD) or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI).MethodsHs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured in 6692 and 5458 participants respectively without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002 in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. A significant number also had repeat biomarker measurement between 2004 and 2005. Incident clinical PAD was ascertained through 2017. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI 0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling were used to determine the association of these biomarkers with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively.ResultsOverall, 121 clinical PAD and 118 low ABI events occurred. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, each log unit increment in hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP was associated with a 30% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6) and 50% (HR) 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) higher risk of clinical PAD respectively. No significant associations were observed for incident low ABI. Change in these biomarkers was not associated with either of the PAD outcomes.ConclusionsNT-proBNP and hs-cTnT are independently associated with the development of clinical PAD. Further study should determine whether these biomarkers can help to better identify those at higher risk for PAD.

AimsThe association of subclinical atherosclerotic disease in the coronary arteries and thoracic aorta with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is unknown. We investigated the association between coronary artery calcium score (CACs) and thoracic aortic calcium score (TACs) with incident clinical and subclinical PAD.Methods and resultsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) recruited 6814 men and women aged 45-84 from four ethnic groups who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrolment. Coronary artery calcium score and thoracic aortic calcium score were measured from computed tomography scans. Participants with a baseline ankle-brachial index (ABI) ≤0.90 or >1.4 were excluded. Abnormal ABI was defined as ABI ≤0.9 or >1.4 at follow-up exam. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the associations between baseline CACs and TACs with incident abnormal ABI and clinical PAD, respectively. A total of 6409 participants (female: 52.8%) with a mean age of 61 years were analysed. Over a median follow-up of 16.7 years, 91 participants developed clinical PAD. In multivariable analysis, each unit increase in log (CACS + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were associated with 23% and 13% (P < 0.01for both) higher risk of incident clinical PAD, respectively. In 5725 (female: 52.6%) participants with an available follow-up ABI over median 9.2 years, each 1-unit increase in log (CACs + 1) and log (TACs + 1) were independently associated with 1.15-fold and 1.07-fold (P < 0.01for both) higher odds of incident abnormal ABI, respectively.ConclusionHigher baseline CACs and TACs predict abnormal ABI and clinical PAD independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline ABI.

BackgroundElevated plasma lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] and coronary artery calcification (CAC) are established cardiovascular risk factors that correlate with each other. We hypothesized that other cardiovascular risk factors could affect their relationship.MethodsWe tested for interactions of 24 study variables related to dyslipidemia, diabetes, insulin resistance, hypertension, inflammation and coagulation with baseline Lp(a) on change in CAC volume and density over 9.5 years in 5975 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants, free of apparent cardiovascular disease at baseline.ResultsElevated Lp(a) was associated with larger absolute increase in CAC volume (3.21 and 4.45 mm3/year higher for Lp(a) ≥30 versus

BackgroundLipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] is a risk factor for coronary heart disease and calcific aortic valve disease. We determined the relationships of Lp(a) with prevalence and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC), mitral annular calcification (MAC), and thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) in a multi-ethnic cohort of middle to older-aged adults.MethodsThis analysis included 6705 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants. Lp(a) was measured with a turbidimetric immunoassay. CAC, MAC, and TAC were assessed by cardiac computed tomography both at baseline and once during follow-up.ResultsIn adjusted relative risk regression cross-sectional analysis, a Lp(a) level ≥50 ​mg/dL was associated with a 22% higher prevalence of MAC (relative risk (RR) ​= ​1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00, 1.49). No significant associations were observed for prevalent CAC or TAC. In adjusted prospective analyses, participants with Lp(a) ≥50 ​mg/dL were at significantly higher risk for rapid CAC progression (median follow-up ​= ​8.9 years), defined as ≥100 units/year, compared to those with lower Lp(a) levels (RR ​= ​1.67, 95% CI ​= ​1.23, 2.27). The association between higher Lp(a) levels and incident CHD was no longer significant after adjusting for CAC progression. No significant associations were observed for MAC or TAC progression (median follow-up ​= ​2.6 years).ConclusionsHigher Lp(a) levels are associated with more rapid CAC progression. Additional study is needed to better understand how this relationship can further improve the ability of Lp(a) to enhance cardiovascular disease risk prediction.

AimsThe detection of cardiac valvular calcification on routine imaging may provide an opportunity to identify individuals at increased risk for peripheral artery disease (PAD). We investigated the associations of aortic valvular calcification (AVC) and mitral annular calcification (MAC) with risk of developing clinical PAD or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI).Methods and resultsAVC and MAC were measured on cardiac computed tomography in 6778 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002. Clinical PAD was ascertained through 2015. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI 0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression modelling were used to determine the association of valvular calcification with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively. There were 117 clinical PAD and 198 low ABI events that occurred over a median follow-up of 14 years and 9.2 years, respectively. The presence of MAC was associated with an increased risk of clinical PAD [hazard ratio 1.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-3.05] but not a low ABI (rate ratio 1.28; 95% CI 0.75-2.19). No significant associations were noted for the presence of AVC and risk of either clinical PAD.ConclusionMAC is associated with an increased risk of developing clinical PAD. Future studies are needed to corroborate our findings and better understand whether MAC holds any predictive value as a risk marker for PAD.

Higher levels of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) have been associated with the presence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), but prospective associations are unknown. We examined the association of circulating HGF levels with incident PAD. Between 2000 and 2002, HGF was measured in 6742 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants without PAD. Incident clinical PAD, adjudicated on the basis of a positive history for the presence of disease-related symptoms or treatment, was ascertained through 2015. Incident low ankle-brachial index (ABI), defined as an ABI < 0.9 and a decline of ≥ 0.15, was assessed among 5736 individuals who had an ABI > 0.9 at baseline and ≥1 follow-up ABI measurement 3 to 10 years later. There were 116 clinical PAD and 197 low ABI events that occurred over a median follow-up of 14 and 9 years, respectively. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, a standard deviation increment of HGF (303 ng/L) was associated with an increased risk of clinical PAD (hazard ratio: 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.39) but not a low ABI (rate ratio: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.85-1.25). In conclusion, higher HGF levels were modestly associated with an increased risk of developing clinical PAD.

BackgroundCD14 is a membrane glycoprotein primarily expressed by myeloid cells that plays a key role in inflammation. Soluble CD14 (sCD14) levels carry a poor prognosis in chronic heart failure (HF), but whether elevations in sCD14 precede HF is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that sCD14 is associated with HF incidence and its subtypes independent of major inflammatory biomarkers among older adults.Methods and resultsWe included participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study without preexisting HF and available baseline sCD14. We evaluated the associations of sCD14, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin (IL)-6, and white blood cell count (WBC) with incident HF and subtypes using Cox regression. Among 5217 participants, 1878 had incident HF over 13.6 years (609 classifiable as HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF] and 419 as HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF]). After adjusting for clinical and laboratory covariates, sCD14 was significantly associated with incident HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.56 per doubling, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29-1.89), an association that was numerically stronger than for hsCRP (HR per doubling: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06-1.15), IL-6 (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.10-1.25), and WBC (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.09-1.42), and that remained significant after adjustment for the other markers of inflammation. This association for sCD14 was observed with HFpEF (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.07-2.10) but not HFrEF (HR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.67-1.49).ConclusionsPlasma sCD14 was associated with incident HF independently and numerically more strongly than other major inflammatory markers. This association was only observed with HFpEF in the subset with classifiable HF subtypes. Pending replication, these findings have potentially important therapeutic implications.

Background and aimsWe aimed to assess the relationship of HDL (high-density lipoprotein)-mediated cholesterol mass efflux capacity (CMEC) with risk of incident peripheral artery disease (PAD).MethodsCMEC was measured in 1458 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants between 2000 and 2002 as part of a case-control study matched for incident cardiovascular disease and progression of carotid plaque by ultrasound. Incident clinical PAD, adjudicated on the basis of a positive history for the presence of disease-related symptoms or treatment, was ascertained through 2015 in 1419 individuals without clinical PAD at baseline. Subclinical PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index (ABI) ≤1.0, was assessed among 1255 individuals with a baseline ABI >1.0 and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Cox proportional hazards and relative risk regression modeling per SD increment of CMEC were used to determine the association of CMEC with clinical and subclinical PAD, respectively.ResultsThere were 38 clinical PAD and 213 subclinical PAD events that occurred over a mean follow-up of 6.0 and 6.5 years respectively. After adjustment for age, gender, and race, higher CMEC levels were not associated with clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.25; 95% CI 0.89, 1.75) or subclinical PAD (risk ratio 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94, 1.11).ConclusionsThese findings suggest that HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux is not significantly associated with incident clinical and subclinical PAD.

Background While elevated homocysteine has been associated with calcification in several studies, its importance as a cardiovascular risk factor remains unclear. This study examines the relationship between homocysteine and vascular and valve calcification in the MESA (Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) cohort. Methods and Results MESA participants with baseline homocysteine measurements and cardiac computed tomography scans were included (N=6789). Baseline and follow-up assessment of vascular (coronary artery [CAC], descending thoracic aorta [DTAC]) and valve (aortic valve [AVC], mitral annular [MAC]) calcification was performed. Prevalence ratio/relative risk regression was used to assess the relationship of homocysteine with prevalent and incident calcification, and multivariable logistic regression was used to assess associations between homocysteine and calcification progression. Elevated homocysteine was associated with greater relative risk of prevalent and incident CAC and incident DTAC. We also identified a strong association between elevated homocysteine and CAC and DTAC progression. Elevated homocysteine was found to confer a >2-fold increased risk of severe CAC progression (defined as ΔCAC ≥100/year) and an ≈1.5-fold increased risk for severe DTAC progression (defined as ΔDTAC ≥100/year). Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating an association between elevated homocysteine and both incidence and progression of coronary and extra-coronary vascular calcification. Our findings suggest a potential role for elevated homocysteine as a risk factor for severe vascular calcification progression. Future studies are warranted to further assess the utility of homocysteine as a biomarker for vascular calcification incidence and progression. Clinical Trial Registration https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

Carboxymethyl-lysine is an advanced glycation end product that is detectable in the serum. Higher carboxymethyl-lysine levels have been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease, stroke and cardiovascular mortality. We determined whether high carboxymethyl-lysine levels are also associated with the risk of peripheral artery disease in Cardiovascular Health Study participants who were all aged 65 years and older at baseline. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association of baseline carboxymethyl-lysine levels with incident peripheral artery disease in 3267 individuals followed for a median length of 10.0 years. A total of 157 cases of incident peripheral artery disease occurred during follow-up. No significant relationship between carboxymethyl-lysine and risk of peripheral artery disease was found (hazard ratio per standard deviation increment = 1.03; 95% confidence interval = 0.87, 1.23).

BackgroundAssessment of coronary artery calcium (CAC) during lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT) represents an opportunity to identify asymptomatic individuals at increased coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We determined the improvement in CHD risk prediction associated with the addition of CAC testing in a population recommended for lung cancer screening.MethodsWe included 484 out of 6814 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants without baseline cardiovascular disease who met U.S. Preventive Service Task Force CT lung cancer screening criteria and underwent gated CAC testing. 10 year-predicted CHD risks with and without CAC were calculated using a validated MESA-based risk model and categorized into low (

Background and aimsResults from prospective studies evaluating the relationship between elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity and incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) have been mixed. We investigated whether higher Lp-PLA2 levels are associated with increased risk of incident PAD and whether PLA2G7 gene variants, which result in lower Lp-PLA2 levels, are associated with reduced risk of incident PAD.MethodsOur analysis included 9922 participants (56% female; 21% African-American; mean age 63 years) without baseline PAD at ARIC Visit 4 (1996-1998), who had Lp-PLA2 activity measured and were subsequently followed for the development of PAD, defined by occurrence of a PAD-related hospitalization, through 2012. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to determine the association of Lp-PLA2 levels and PLA2G7 gene variants with incident PAD.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 14.9 years, we identified 756 incident cases of PAD. In analyses adjusting for age, race, and sex, each standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 activity (62 nmol/ml/min) was associated with a higher risk of developing PAD (hazard ratio (HR) 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09, 1.26). This association remained significant after additional adjustment for risk factors, other cardiovascular disease, and medication use, but was strongly attenuated (HR: 1.09; 95% CI 1.00, 1.20). PLA2G7 variants were not associated with a lower risk of PAD in both white carriers (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.17-8.56) and African-American carriers (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.41-1.67), although statistical power was quite limited for this analysis, particularly in whites.ConclusionsWhile higher Lp-PLA2 activity was associated with an increased risk for incident PAD, it is likely a risk marker largely represented by traditional risk factors.

ObjectiveAlthough prior studies report a relationship between elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and incident cardiovascular disease, the prospective association of Lp-PLA2 with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) has not been studied. We investigated the association between Lp-PLA2 mass and activity and the risk of developing clinical PAD and low ankle-brachial index (ABI).Approach and resultsAmong Cardiovascular Health Study participants, a population-based cohort of 5888 adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in 1989 to 1990, Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were measured in 4537 individuals without baseline PAD. Clinical PAD, defined as leg artery revascularization or diagnosed claudication, was ascertained through 2011. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI 0.9 at baseline and a second ABI measurement 3 or 6 years later. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, cholesterol, smoking, comorbidities, and C-reactive protein. Each standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 mass (117 ng/mL) was associated with a higher risk of developing clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.13, 1.45) and incident low ABI (odds ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval 1.00, 1.33). Results per standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 activity (13 nmol/min per mL) were similar for clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.07, 1.44) and low ABI (odds ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.09, 1.50).ConclusionsHigher Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were associated with development of both incident clinical PAD and low ABI. Future studies are needed to determine whether pharmacological inhibition of Lp-PLA2 reduces the incidence of PAD.

BackgroundPopulation-based risk factors for carotid artery revascularization are not known. We investigated the association between demographic and clinical characteristics and incident carotid artery revascularization in a cohort of older adults.MethodsAmong Cardiovascular Health Study participants, a population-based cohort of 5,888 adults aged 65 years or older enrolled in two waves (1989-1990 and 1992-1993), 5,107 participants without a prior history of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or cerebrovascular disease had a carotid ultrasound at baseline and were included in these analyses. Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis was used to determine independent risk factors for incident carotid artery revascularization.ResultsOver a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 141 participants underwent carotid artery revascularization, 97% were CEA. Baseline degree of stenosis and incident ischemic cerebral events occurring during follow-up were the strongest predictors of incident revascularization. After adjustment for these, factors independently associated with an increased risk of incident revascularization were: hypertension (HR 1.53; 95% CI: 1.05-2.23), peripheral arterial disease (HR 2.57; 95% CI: 1.34-4.93), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.23 per standard deviation [SD] increment [35.4 mg/dL]; 95% CI: 1.04-1.46). Factors independently associated with a lower risk of incident revascularization were: female gender (HR 0.51; 95% CI: 0.34-0.77) and older age (HR 0.69 per SD increment [5.5 years]; 95% CI: 0.56-0.86).ConclusionsEven after accounting for carotid stenosis and incident cerebral ischemic events, carotid revascularization is related to age, gender, and cardiovascular risk factors. Further study of these demographic disparities and the role of risk factor control is warranted.

ObjectiveProspective studies reporting a positive association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) mass and activity with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) have included primarily white individuals. We evaluated associations of Lp-PLA2 and first-time cardiovascular events in a healthy multi-ethnic cohort characterized by presence or absence of baseline subclinical atherosclerosis.MethodsLp-PLA2 mass and activity were measured at baseline in 5456 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Individuals were characterized for presence of baseline subclinical disease (coronary artery calcium score > 0 or carotid intima-media thickness value > 80th percentile) and followed prospectively for development of CVD events (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death).Results516 incident CVD events occurred over median follow-up of 10.2 years. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, each higher standard deviation of both Lp-PLA2 activity and mass was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events; hazard ratios (HR; 95% confidence intervals (CI)) 1.12 (1.01-1.26) for Lp-PLA2 activity and 1.10 (1.01-1.21) for mass. Associations did not differ by subclinical disease status (p-value for interaction 0.99 for Lp-PLA2 activity and 0.32 for Lp-PLA2 mass) and there was no confounding by subclinical atherosclerosis measures. Associations of Lp-PLA2 activity but not mass were weaker in Chinese participants but there were relatively few events among Chinese in race-stratified analysis.ConclusionIn this multi-ethnic cohort, Lp-PLA2 was positively associated with CVD risk, regardless of the presence of coronary artery calcium or a thickened carotid-intimal media.

Prior studies evaluating metabolic syndrome (MetS) and incident peripheral artery disease (PAD) have been limited by use of modified MetS criteria and restriction to clinical PAD end points. We investigated MetS and risk of developing a low ankle-brachial index (ABI) and clinical PAD in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort of adults aged ≥65 years. Participants with MetS met at least 3 of 5 Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Baseline C-reactive protein-MetS or fibrinogen-MetS were defined as presence of 3 of 6 components, with elevated C-reactive protein (>3 mg/L) or fibrinogen (>341 mg/dL) as a sixth component. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI