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Background/aims: We retrospectively evaluated variable clinical data on admission to reliably predict bleeding from esophageal varices after the first course of endoscopic treatment in liver cirrhosis patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma., Methodology: We analyzed 27 clinical factors from the medical records of 118 patients who received their first course of endoscopic treatment for esophageal varices. Factors significantly related to bleeding were extracted using Cox's regression model, and the bleeding index was prepared by combining these factors., Results: The cumulative nonbleeding rates after treatment for esophageal varices were 82.1% at 1 year, 64.6% at 3 years and 53.7% at 5 years. By the multivariate analysis, age, the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase and alpha-fetoprotein were selected as significant factors that contributed independently to the post-therapeutic bleeding from esophageal varices (P<0.05). The bleeding index was calculated using the following formula: bleeding index = - 0.045 x Age + 0.934 x hepatocellular carcinoma - 0.151 x hemoglobin + 0.108 x lactate dehydrogenase + 0.842 x alpha-fetoprotein., Conclusions: The bleeding index, based on 5 factors, will in future be an appropriate index to predict the post-therapeutic bleeding from esophageal varices.

We retrospectively evaluated clinical factors affecting long-term survival after treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to predict the reliability of the prognosis of patients with HCC. We analyzed 157 patients who received treatment for HCC. The prognostic index (PI) was evaluated using the Cox regression model. The overall cumulative survival rates were 79.7% at 1 year, 51.1% at 3 years, and 24.9% at 5 years. The PI was calculated by the following formula, consisting of five factors: PI = 0.637 x number of tumor lesions + 0.103 x tumor diameter + 1.003 x ascites + 0.915 x portal vein tumor thrombosis - 0.006 x cholinesterase + 2.0. It was found that liver function and progression of the tumor are the most important factors for prognosis after treatment for HCC. The PI, based on five factors, will in future be an appropriate index to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC.

This study was carried out in Japanese patients to clarify the state of liver cirrhosis complicated by hepatic encephalopathy with and without hepatocellular carcinoma and its prognosis. The subjects were 100 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated by hepatic encephalopathy. Clinical data were investigated, and prognostic factors were extracted using Cox's proportional hazard model. The cumulative survival rate after the first episode of hepatic encephalopathy was 59.1% after 1 year, 48.3% after 2 years, and 22.2% after 5 years. The prognostic index (PI) was calculated using the following formula consisting of these six factors. PI = 0.806 x Child-Pugh classification + 1.149 x presence or absence of HCC + 0.024 x BUN + 0.036 x LDH + 0.093 x WBC + 0.381 x PIVKA-II. The PI value was suggested to be useful for the prognosis of liver cirrhosis after the first episode of hepatic encephalopathy.

Objective: Interferon (IFN) therapy has been used as antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CH-C); however, complete response to the therapy is observed in only about 30% of patients in Japan. Background factors involved in the responsiveness to IFN therapy, and progression to liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after IFN therapy have not yet been sufficiently investigated., Methods: One hundred twenty-one patients with CH-C who received IFN therapy at Showa University Hospital between 1984 and 1999 were analyzed., Results: At 6 months after the termination of IFN therapy, 53 patients achieved a complete response, 11 patients incomplete response, and 57 patients no response. During a mean follow-up of 52.7 months, 12 patients progressed to LC, and 10 patients developed HCC. Multivariate analysis showed that significant independent factors involved in progression to LC were platelet count and the efficacy of IFN therapy. The significant independent factor involved in the development of HCC was platelet count. The factor involved in the therapeutic effect at 6 months after the termination of IFN administration was the serum hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels before IFN therapy., Conclusion: Patients with high HCV RNA levels and low platelet counts should be considered to be at high risk of progressing to LC and developing of HCC and should be carefully followed after IFN therapy using ultrasonography, CT scan and MRI., (Copyright 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel)

Background: Patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) frequently have complications with bacterial infections, and these infections increase the mortality rate. However, a detailed analysis of infections associated with LC patients has not yet been performed., Methods: We analyzed 325 patients with LC with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who were hospitalized between 1997 and 1999., Results: Infections developed in 70 (21.5%) patients and 48 (68.6%) of these developed infections during hospitalization. The mortality rate of 28.6% (20/70) in patients with infectious complications was higher than that of 12.5% (32/255) in patients without infectious complications. Forty (57.1%) of the 70 patients had infections of unknown causes; 11 (15.7%) had sepsis; 6 (8.6%) had intravenous hyperalimentation (IVH) infection; 3 (4.3%) each had spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), liver abscess, and cholecystitis; and 4 (5.7%) had other infections. Bacterial cultures of blood were prepared from 73 of the 325 patients (22.5%), and were positive in 22 of the 73 patients (30.1%). Of these 22 culture-positive patients, 11 had sepsis, 6 had IVH infection, 2 had liver abscess, 1 had cholecystitis, 1 had pneumonia, and 1 had decubitus ulcer. Gram-positive bacterial strains were detected most frequently, in 16 of the 24 strains isolated. Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups with and without infectious complications with regard to hepatitis B virus infection, Child-Pugh classification, ascites, esophageal varices, survival rate, total-bilirubin (T-Bil), albumin (Alb), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), total cholesterol (T-chol), and prothrombin time (PT). On multivariate analysis, the Alb level was selected as a significant independent factor contributing to the development of infections., Conclusions: Patients with advanced cirrhosis with low Alb levels should be carefully treated, and the administration of broad spectrum antibiotics covering gram-positive bacteria needs to be considered in the treatment of infections.