Search

Equitable and effective allocation of provincial carbon allowances is the key to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and addressing the prominent issue of resource and environmental constraints, while reasonable coupling of equity and efficiency is its prerequisite. The study first assessed the effectiveness of the mainstream allocation methods when applied to the building sector. Then, Monte Carlo simulation is used to properly couple the principles of equity and efficiency in the process of carbon allowance allocation in the building sector, and on this basis, a novel Allocation method of Regional Carbon Allowance in Building sector (ARCAB) is constructed to provide an inter-provincial allocation scheme of building carbon emission allowances in 2030 for China. The results show that the mainstream allocation methods are not applicable to the building sector, and their allocation results often appear the phenomenon of "low-hanging fruit" or "high-hanging fruit". In addition, the coupling degree of equity-efficiency is 12% in China's 2030 allocation scheme, indicating that provincial governments should formulate more stringent carbon reduction policies to achieve this goal. The proposed ARCAB and our findings can assist decision-makers to formulate reasonable carbon allowances and differentiated emission-reduction strategies and will be of national and global significance. • Propose the criteria to judge the effectiveness of building carbon allowances. • Mainstream carbon allowance allocation methods do not apply to the building sector. • Propose an Allocation method of Regional Carbon Allowance in Building sector (ARCAB). • Focus on carbon reduction in commercial buildings in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clarifying the critical driving factors and the driving mechanism for building carbon emissions is fundamental for carbon peak and carbon neutrality prediction. This study comprehensively identifies 23 representative factors using the literature research and questionnaire survey method. Then, by coupling the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method and the interpretive structural model (ISM), an integrated DEMATEL-ISM model is developed. The proposed model is further employed to quantify the causal relationships among the factors and establish a multi-level recursive structure model to determine the action mechanism of those drivers. The results show that the 11 cause factors, 12 effect factors and the three most important factors including the economic development level, building end-use energy consumption and end-use energy intensity are identified based on the calculated cause and center degree. Based on the obtained hierarchy, the 23 factors are divided into six levels, among which the population factors, the economic development, the urbanization level and the share of the tertiary sector are the root factors leading to the building carbon emissions. In comparison, policy factors are the most critical inhibiting factors. This study can not only promote the theory and model development for the driving mechanism of carbon emissions, but also help decision-makers develop scientific carbon reduction strategies. • Establishes an integrated DEMATEL-ISM model by coupling the DEMATEL method with the ISM. • Identifies the representative factors affecting the building carbon emissions from the systematic perspective. • Explores the significance of the factors and their intricate interactive mechanism. • Population factors, socio-economic development, urbanization level and the tertiary sector share are the fundamental factors. • Policy factors are the most critical inhibiting factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon mitigation effectiveness in the building sector profoundly determines the achievement of the "Dual carbon" target. However, the timetable and roadmap for the building sector to achieve such a target are still lacking. This study constructs a STIRPAT-PLS model framework to clarify the impact of the key factors from various dimensions on building carbon emissions across sub-sectors. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is established and applied in China to explore the dynamic evolutionary paths, and the timetable and roadmap are ultimately formulated. The results show that building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). Rural residential buildings will peak earliest in 2026 (± 1), followed by urban residential and commercial buildings: in 2036 (± 2) and 2038 (± 1). Achieving carbon neutrality will require the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. The remaining 0.56–0.81 Gt CO 2 by 2060 will be offset by negative carbon technologies. Dynamic sensitivity analysis shows that building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks, and population and building floor space per capita markedly impact the peaking times. This study can promote the development of the theory and model for carbon emissions prediction. It can also offer a scientific basis for governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and paths. [Display omitted] • Constructing a STIRPAT-PLS model to clarify the impact of critical factors on building carbon emissions. • Establishing a dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis. • Building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). • Achieving carbon neutrality requires the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. • Building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Establishes an integrated dynamic emission assessment model by coupling end-use energy model and system dynamics model. • Explores the dynamic interaction mechanism between macrolevel and microlevel factors as well as technical options. • Commercial buildings will probably hit the emission peak at 1.28Gt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Lighting and cooling will contribute over 70% to the carbon emission growth. • Technological progress, clean energy, and electrification rate play significant roles in boosting emission peak and peaking time. Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO 2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO 2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon-reduction effect of the urban residential building sector is crucial to the carbon neutrality target. This study aims to explore the interaction mechanism among influencing factors and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of urban residential building carbon emissions (URBCE). An integrated dynamic emission assessment (IDEA) model is innovatively established by coupling the system dynamics (SD) model and a bottom-up end-use decomposition model. Combining with the scenario analysis approach, this IDEA model is applied in China's urban residential building sector from 2000 to 2060. Results show that under the baseline scenario, the URBCE will fail to peak before 2030 but will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037. In comparison, it will peak at 0.79 Bt CO 2 in 2025 and decline to 0.17 Bt CO 2 in 2060 under carbon-neutral scenario, which can be neutralized by negative carbon technologies. Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential, with the contribution of heating and appliances being over 50%. Sensitivity analyses shows that the low-carbon awareness, electrification rate, proportion of clean energy generation and technological progress contribute positively to the early peak of URBCE. This study provides a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking paths and can assist policy-makers in better evaluating emission paths for other nations and regions. [Display omitted] • Develops an IDEA model by combining system dynamics model and LEAP model. • Explores the interaction and feedback mechanism among different levels of factors. • Simulates the URBCE by combining the IDEA model and scenario analysis approach. • Urban residential buildings will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]