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The global ocean takes up nearly a quarter of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions annually, but the variability in this uptake at regional scales remains poorly understood. Here we use a neural network approach to interpolate sparse observations, creating a monthly gridded seawater partial pressure of CO 2 (p CO 2) data product from January 1998 to December 2019, at 1/12 ∘ × 1/12 ∘ spatial resolution, in the northeast Pacific open ocean, a net sink region. The data product (ANN-NEP; NCEI Accession 0277836) was created from p CO 2 observations within the 2021 version of the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas (SOCAT) and a range of predictor variables acting as proxies for processes affecting p CO 2 to create nonlinear relationships to interpolate observations at a spatial resolution 4 times greater than leading global products and with better overall performance. In moving to a higher resolution, we show that the internal division of training data is the most important parameter for reducing overfitting. Using our p CO 2 product, wind speed, and atmospheric CO 2 , we evaluate air–sea CO 2 flux variability. On sub-decadal to decadal timescales, we find that the upwelling strength of the subpolar Alaskan Gyre, driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing, acts as the primary control on air–sea CO 2 flux variability (r2=0.93 , p<0.01). In the northern part of our study region, divergence from atmospheric CO 2 is enhanced by increased local wind stress curl, enhancing upwelling and entrainment of naturally CO 2 -rich subsurface waters, leading to decade-long intervals of strong winter outgassing. During recent Pacific marine heat waves from 2013 on, we find enhanced atmospheric CO 2 uptake (by as much as 45 %) due to limited wintertime entrainment. Our product estimates long-term surface ocean p CO 2 increase at a rate below the atmospheric trend (1.4 ± 0.1 µ atm yr -1) with the slowest increase in the center of the subpolar gyre where there is strong interaction with subsurface waters. This mismatch suggests the northeast Pacific Ocean sink for atmospheric CO 2 may be increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming and deoxygenation are already modifying the habitats of many aerobic organisms. Benthic habitat in the Northeast Pacific is sensitive to deoxygenation, as low oxygen concentrations occur naturally in continental shelf bottom waters. Here, we examine the potential impacts of deoxygenation and ocean warming on the habitat distribution of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), one of the most commercially important groundfish in North America. We combine fisheries‐independent Pacific halibut survey data (1998–2020) with oceanographic measurements and a regional ocean circulation model to investigate current and future (end of 21st century) influences of deoxygenation and warming on optimal Pacific halibut habitat. We use the observations and model output to derive a metabolic index of Pacific halibut‐specific suitable habitat. Our results show high Pacific halibut counts in regions where the metabolic index is greatest and demonstrate that interannual variability in Pacific halibut abundance is coherent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Working with model projections, we examine potential future changes in suitable Pacific halibut habitat by the end of the century under a high carbon dioxide emissions scenario. These projections indicate that suitable Pacific halibut habitat may largely disappear off the coast of Washington state, retreating approximately 5° latitude northward. In bottom waters along coastal British Columbia and Alaska continental shelf, Pacific halibut habitat is projected to decrease by about 50%. Such habitat changes may potentially drive a northward shift in Pacific halibut, with significant implications for commercial fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We measured the carbonate system (between 2015 and 2018) in an isolated and a well‐connected temperate estuary, both known for shellfish growth. We evaluated end‐member model estimates of inorganic carbon, alkalinity, pH, mineral saturation states (Ωa), and pH sensitivity (βDIC). We find winter conditions are estimated within observational uncertainty. Spring‐summer primary productivity elevates observed pH and Ωa above theoretical lines, beyond uncertainty. Both estuaries are sensitive in winter and likely to experience rapid pH changes with increased inorganic carbon inputs. Summer pH sensitivity is reduced by productivity and is least sensitive in the midsalinity region. We estimate carbon increased by up to 49 μmol kg−1, since the pre‐industrial period resulting in significant decreases in pH (0.2) and Ωa (0.5). The largest pH decrease occurred outside the minimum buffer zone, at higher salinities where carbon increase was greatest. The largest pH decrease occurred in winter, but the largest Ωa decrease occured in summer. Plain Language Summary: The ocean has absorbed about a third of human carbon dioxide emissions, increasing its acidity. Increasing acidity negatively affects marine organisms such as shellfish and fish that build calcium carbonate structures because they must spend more energy building and maintaining these structures. Most farmed and wild shellfish live in estuarine environments where acidification has not been widely studied. We made complete carbon system measurements over several years and across all seasons, in two distinct estuaries with significant aquaculture, where no previous carbon data existed. We estimated key acidification parameters and evaluated our ability to predict these parameters using only salinity, once properties in the freshest and saltiest water in the systems were well defined in all seasons. Our simple "mixing model" estimates winter conditions well, but during summer, phytoplankton blooms take up carbon and make conditions more favorable than predicted. We found that both estuaries are sensitive to future increases in carbon and are likely to experience rapid changes in chemistry. We estimate that human activity has already caused significant increases in inorganic carbon and associated acidification. The largest change critical to shell‐building organisms has occurred during the summer, and at higher salinities that are typical of grow sites. Key Points: End‐member mixing estimates winter pH and mineral saturation states in temperate estuaries within measurement uncertaintySeasonal productivity keeps pH and mineral saturation states above theoretical mixing curves by up to ∼1 pH and ∼2.5 Ωa, respectivelySince the preindustrial period nearshore estuarine pH declined by 0.05–0.2 with largest decline outside the minimum buffer zone [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]