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Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since climate change mitigation is the central debate of modern literature, the realization of carbon neutrality in response to diversified macroeconomic variables is the most crucial concern of international economies. However, the critical role of trade and renewable electricity output in export diversification-environmental nexus is missing. Therefore, this study investigates the combined influence of trade openness, exports diversification, and renewable electricity output on carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2) in China from 1989 through 2019. Applying novel time series econometric techniques robust to structural breaks, following new outcomes are obtained. Firstly, long-run equilibrium cointegration existed among the under-analysis variables. Secondly, export diversification and renewable electricity output are predicted to decelerate CO 2 , supporting carbon neutrality in the long run. Thirdly, trade openness and gross domestic product accelerated the CO 2 , delaying carbon neutrality accomplishment. Most importantly, significant structural break dummy interacting with trade openness implicated that during the post-2001 era, China's trade openness extensively deteriorated the environmental quality in the face of trade liberalization obtained after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on empirical results, export diversification and renewable electricity production policies should be mutually non-exclusive and closely coordinated. Further, to counter the carbon emission acceleration impact of trade openness, increasing the share of green tradable products is suggested. Finally, bilateral trade restructuring is recommended to realize the long-term dream of economic sustainability and carbon neutrality. • The role of exports diversification and trade openness is analyzed for China. • Novel time series methods are used for data from 1989 to 2019. • Exports diversification and renewable energy limit carbon emissions. • Trade openness and economic growth cause emissions to increase. • Sustainable trade is encouraged for achieving carbon neutrality target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]