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[Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China aims to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Currently, 9% of China's CO 2 emissions come from the transportation sector. Transportation decarbonization is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. By representing the transportation sector with nine segments and 20 modes in Global Change Analysis Model, this study explores China's transportation decarbonization and potential role of electricity and hydrogen at the segment-mode level under three illustrative scenarios – policy scenario (PS), 2060 carbon-neutrality scenario (CN60), and 2050 carbon-neutrality scenario (CN50). The PS reflects the continuation of current low-carbon policies and trends, while the CN60 and the CN50 represent China's pursuit of net-zero emissions before 2060 and 2050, respectively. Results in the PS show a gradual saturation of service demand and an increasingly efficient modal structure for China's future transportation. Compared to the PS, the two carbon neutrality scenarios specifically emphasize the importance of decarbonizing transportation fuel structure after 2030. In the CN60, China's transportation emissions peak in 2035 and fall to 0.36 GtCO 2 in 2050; electricity and hydrogen provide 43% and 12% of transportation energy in 2050, respectively. The CN50 features further penetration of low-carbon fuels to reduce transportation carbon intensity, with transportation emissions peaking in 2030 and declining to only 0.21 GtCO 2 in 2050. In 2050 of the CN50, the share of electricity and hydrogen in China's transportation energy increases to 53% and 16%, respectively, with near-zero emissions being achieved in urban, rural and business passenger segments, as well as in car and bus; hydrogen provides 17% and 26% of China's airplane and ship energy consumption, respectively. • A segment-mode analysis of China's transportation decarbonization is conducted. • Three scenarios inform transportation decarbonization effort for carbon neutrality. • Transportation emissions peak in 2030–2035 and fall to 0.21–0.36 GtCO 2 in 2050. • Car could be 94% electrified and achieve near-zero emissions in 2050. • Hydrogen could provide 17% and 26% of airplane and ship energy consumption in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change mitigation needs all countries’ efforts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s guideline of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. The medium-to-long term regional emissions pathways simulated by integrated assessment models with global mitigation costs minimized to achieve the 2 °C goal might be very different from the regional emissions allowances allocated based on effort-sharing principles. Global carbon trading is a cost-effective mechanism to bridge the gap. Insight of previous papers has mainly focused on the impact of a single effort-sharing scheme on global carbon market, while this study attempts to explore the scale and benefit of global carbon market under different effort-sharing principles to achieve the 2 °C goal, with the application of a consistent modeling framework, consisting of an integrated assessment model and an effort-sharing platform. The results indicate that scale of global carbon market would be highly related with the effort-sharing principles. The global trading volumes would change from 1.8 Gigatons (Gt) carbon dioxide (CO2) to over 12 GtCO2 per year and largely peak between 2030 and 2040 under different kinds of effort-sharing principles. Correspondingly, annual global finance flows in the carbon market would increase gradually and reach the scale of hundreds of billions United States (US) dollars since 2020. Global carbon market would lower the abatement costs of developed countries, and the overall global abatement costs would drop by 0.4-2.6% during 2011-2050. The developing countries would not only acquire revenues from global carbon trading but also be provided with an opportunity to accelerate their domestic low-carbon energy transformation, local environmental improvement, job creation, and economic development. Linking national and regional carbon markets to develop global carbon market will be critical to maximize the utility of the market mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparing and evaluating the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is an important element in global stocktake in the post-Paris climate negotiations, aimed at closing the emissions gap with the Paris Agreement goals. To date, however, there has still been no explicit guideline or method. By applying emissions allowance allocated by 16 schemes as benchmarks, this paper tries to compare and evaluate the NDCs of the top six emitters, which jointly account for about 70% of the world’s CO2 emissions. Results show that the four developed countries’ NDCs lack ambition with respect to most allocations under 2°C and all under 1.5°C, indicating they need to substantially ratchet up their NDCs and lead elevating mitigation. Evaluating cumulative emissions is more likely to clarify the ambition and fairness of China’s NDC. If considering cumulative emissions, China’s NDC is aligned with the median of cumulative allowances under 2°C and within the 1.5°C range. The Paris Agreement invited the Parties to communicate the mid-century low emissions strategies. This paper also tries to explore the mid-century mitigation in the perspective of allocations, which might provide decision-makers with some useful information when envisaging the post-NDC mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's 2060 carbon neutrality requires the industrial sector to play a leading role in decarbonization. By refining China's industrial sector into 11 specific subsectors in the Global Change Analysis Model and representing industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen, this study conducts a sub-sectoral analysis of China's industrial decarbonization under three carbon neutrality scenarios and explores the potential role of CCS and hydrogen. Regardless of the scenario, the results show that China's industrial CO 2 emissions peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a reduction of about 90% in 2050 compared to 2020; electricity becomes the primary energy for China's industrial sector by around 2035, with industrial electrification reaching about 64% in 2050, while coal and oil change from fuel to feedstock. Tapping the mitigation potential of cement, steel, and chemical is a fundamental requirement for China's industrial decarbonization, while further deeper mitigation requires more additional efforts in other subsectors. Cement, steel, and chemical need to reach peak CO 2 by the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and together they are responsible for 83–85% of total industrial emissions reductions from 2015 to 2050. An important way to reduce emissions from these three subsectors is to reduce energy consumption. The other industrial subsectors are expected to reach peak CO 2 by the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Increasing the electrification rate is a key way to reduce emissions in other subsectors. CCS and hydrogen can play an important role in decarbonizing China's industrial sector. In the scenarios of this study, the annual deployment of CCS in China's industrial energy use exceeds 0.3 GtCO 2 in 2035–2040, while hydrogen provides 5.2–10.4% of total industrial energy use in 2050. [Display omitted] • China's sub-sectoral industrial decarbonization is assessed under carbon neutrality. • China's 2050 industrial CO 2 reduces to about 90% below 2020 levels. • Tapping mitigation potential of cement, steel and chemical is a basic requirement. • Electricity becomes the primary industrial energy by around 2035. • Carbon capture and storage and hydrogen can play an important role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonizing road transport is important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. Road transport decarbonization requires rapid deployment of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, expanding demand for critical battery minerals including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. By constructing a novel bottom-up framework that combines Low Emissions Analysis Platform and Vehicle Critical Mineral Demand model, this study assesses China's road transport decarbonization pathways and critical battery mineral demand under three illustrative scenarios. Results show China's vehicle stock peaking at 528 million in 2045 and remaining saturated through 2060. Except for diesel-fueled trucks, China's internal combustion engine vehicles are completely phased out around 2050–2055. Share of oil-derived fuels in China's road transport energy declines, while share of electricity and hydrogen increases significantly, with electricity and hydrogen together accounting for 57–88% in 2060. China's road transport CO 2 peaks at 977–1,083 Mt in 2028–2032, declining to 62–282 Mt in 2060, with private vehicles, light- and heavy-duty trucks as core mitigation areas. Cumulative demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel from electric-vehicle batteries is estimated at 16.1–19.6 Mt LCE, 0.4–0.55 Mt and 3.3–4.3 Mt by 2060, respectively, indicating a challenge for China's local mineral supply. Recycling reduces cumulative demand for primary lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources by over 30%, 60% and 60%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]