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The Miocene (23.03–5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern‐day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early‐to‐middle (E2MMIO; 20.03–11.6 Ma) and middle‐to‐late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5–5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model‐data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by ∼2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern‐day tropics; mid and high‐latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model‐data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. Plain Language Summary: This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23–5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3–7°C warmer than today, with carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates ranging between 400 and 850 ppm. Understanding how the hydrological cycle responded during warmer climate conditions can give us insight into what might happen as the Earth gets warmer. We analyzed a suite of Miocene paleoclimate simulations with different CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and compared them against fossil plant data, which gives an estimate of the average annual rainfall during the period. We found that during the Miocene global rainfall increased by about 2.1%–2.3% for each degree of warming. The models agree that the tropics, mid‐ and high‐latitude, became wetter than they are today but have lower agreement on whether subtropical areas got wetter or drier as they warmed. Compared to proxies, models consistently underestimated how much rain fell in a year, especially in the mid‐ to high‐latitude. This illustrates the challenges in reconstructing the Miocene's hydrological cycle and suggests that the models might not fully capture the range of uncertainties associated with changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming or other factors that differentiated the Miocene. Key Points: A multi‐model comparison of the hydrological cycle in early‐to‐middle and middle‐to‐late Miocene simulations is conductedModels generally agree on wetter than modern tropics, middle and high latitudes, but not on the sign of subtropical precipitation changesModel‐data comparison shows mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models, particularly in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological evidence indicates large continental‐scale Antarctic ice volume variations during the early and mid‐Miocene. On million‐year timescales, these variations can largely be explained by equilibrium Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) simulations. In contrast, on shorter orbital timescales, the AIS needs not be in equilibrium with the forcing and ice volume variations may be substantially different. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on ice dynamical model results, to investigate the difference between transient variability and equilibrium differences of the Miocene AIS. In our model, an ice sheet will grow (shrink) by a specific rate when it is smaller (larger) than its equilibrium size. We show that phases of concurrent ice volume increase and rising CO2 levels are possible, even though the equilibrium ice volume decreases monotonically with CO2. When the AIS volume is out of equilibrium with the forcing climate, the ice sheet can still be adapting to a relatively large equilibrium size, although CO2 is rising after a phase of decrease. A delayed response of Antarctic ice volume to (covarying) solar insolation and CO2 concentrations can cause discrepancies between Miocene solar insolation and benthic δ18O variability. Increasing forcing frequency leads to a larger disequilibrium and consequently larger CO2‐ice volume phase differences. Furthermore, an amplified forcing amplitude causes larger amplitude ice volume variability, because the growth and decay rates depend on the forcing. It also leads to a reduced average ice volume, resulting from the growth rates generally being smaller than the decay rates. Plain Language Summary: The early and mid‐Miocene (23–14 Myr ago) was the last period in Earth's history when the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) size changed between being almost completely vanished and its current magnitude. So far, ice modelers have tried explaining this large‐scale AIS variability using steady‐state experiments, in which the final ice volume is in equilibrium with the forcing climate. In these simulations, phases of simultaneous ice sheet growth and CO2 increase have to be caused by increased precipitation outweighing increased melt in a warmer climate. Conversely, simultaneous ice sheet decay and CO2 decrease must be due to decreased precipitation exceeding decreased melt. Here, we provide an alternative explanation for these phases, based on the notion that the slowly evolving AIS is not in equilibrium with the forcing climate. In our model, an ice sheet will grow (shrink) by a specific rate when it is smaller (larger) than its equilibrium size. The AIS can then still be adapting to a relatively large equilibrium size, when CO2 is already increasing again after an initial drop. It can also continue decaying after a reversal from rising to sinking CO2 levels. Our results serve to aid the interpretation of Miocene geological oxygen isotope data. Key Points: Concurrent Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 level rise can occur because of disequilibrium between ice volume and climateThe disequilibrium and CO2‐ice volume phase differences grow with increasing frequency of the forcingLarger amplitude CO2 variability causes larger amplitude ice volume variability and a smaller average ice sheet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the early to mid‐Miocene, benthic δ18O records indicate large ice volume fluctuations of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) on multiple timescales. Hitherto, research has mainly focused on how CO2 and insolation changes control an equilibrated AIS. However, transient AIS dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we study Miocene AIS variability, using an ice sheet‐shelf model forced by climate model output with various CO2 levels and orbital conditions. Besides equilibrium simulations, we conduct transient experiments, gradually changing the forcing climate state over time. We show that transient AIS variability is substantially smaller than equilibrium differences. This reduces the contribution of the AIS to δ18O fluctuations by more than two thirds on a 40‐kyr timescale, hence requiring a larger contribution by deep‐sea‐temperature variability. The growth rates are much slower than the decay rates, which ensures variability around a preferred small state. Finally, if the bedrock topography enlarges the West Antarctic land surface, AIS self‐sustenance increases. Key Points: The contribution of transient Antarctic ice sheet variations to Miocene δ18O signals is smaller than indicated by equilibrium differencesTransient ice volume variability is centered around a preferred small state and is dependent on the timescale of the forcingEnlarging the West Antarctic land surface increases the self‐sustenance of the Miocene Antarctic ice sheet, decreasing the variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]