Search

[Display omitted] • Establishes an integrated dynamic emission assessment model by coupling end-use energy model and system dynamics model. • Explores the dynamic interaction mechanism between macrolevel and microlevel factors as well as technical options. • Commercial buildings will probably hit the emission peak at 1.28Gt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Lighting and cooling will contribute over 70% to the carbon emission growth. • Technological progress, clean energy, and electrification rate play significant roles in boosting emission peak and peaking time. Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO 2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO 2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon-reduction effect of the urban residential building sector is crucial to the carbon neutrality target. This study aims to explore the interaction mechanism among influencing factors and simulate the future evolutionary trajectories of urban residential building carbon emissions (URBCE). An integrated dynamic emission assessment (IDEA) model is innovatively established by coupling the system dynamics (SD) model and a bottom-up end-use decomposition model. Combining with the scenario analysis approach, this IDEA model is applied in China's urban residential building sector from 2000 to 2060. Results show that under the baseline scenario, the URBCE will fail to peak before 2030 but will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037. In comparison, it will peak at 0.79 Bt CO 2 in 2025 and decline to 0.17 Bt CO 2 in 2060 under carbon-neutral scenario, which can be neutralized by negative carbon technologies. Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential, with the contribution of heating and appliances being over 50%. Sensitivity analyses shows that the low-carbon awareness, electrification rate, proportion of clean energy generation and technological progress contribute positively to the early peak of URBCE. This study provides a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking paths and can assist policy-makers in better evaluating emission paths for other nations and regions. [Display omitted] • Develops an IDEA model by combining system dynamics model and LEAP model. • Explores the interaction and feedback mechanism among different levels of factors. • Simulates the URBCE by combining the IDEA model and scenario analysis approach. • Urban residential buildings will peak at 1.19 Bt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Different end-uses and climate zones show marked discrepancies in emission-reduction potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]