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A decrease in the C-13/C-12 ratio of atmospheric CO2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the C-13-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed C-13-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the C-13/C-12 isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C-3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 +/- 0.007% ppm(-1) is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Niño increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Niño anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Niño events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.

Climate-change induced alterations in the global distribution of cool season (C3) and warm season (C4) grasses would impact the global carbon cycle and have differing, local effects on range and agricultural production. We hypothesize that a major influence on C3/C4 distribution may be the seasonal timing of water availability with respect to the different C3 and C4 growing seasons. An algorithm expressing this hypothesis (the SAW hypothesis for Seasonal Availability of Water), estimates C3 versus C4 grass biomass from climate data. Sensitivity analysis indicated that temperatures used to delineate the start and end of the C3 and C4 grass growing seasons were more important than photosynthetic responses to temperature. To evaluate the SAW hypothesis, this algorithm was applied globally on a 1°×1° latitude–longitude grid. When compared with vegetation survey data at 141 locations in North America, Argentina, Australia, and South Africa, SAW algorithm predictions yielded an R2 of 0.71. Error resulted primarily from comparing large grid cells to plot data, interannual variability of climate, and from gridding measured climate to data-sparse locations with a single lapse rate of air temperature with elevation. Application of the SAW algorithm to a climate change scenario suggested that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns could offset C3 photosynthetic advantages offered by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These results underscored the importance of accurately representing the timing and spatial distribution as well as the magnitude of temperature and precipitation in scenarios of future climate.

Downs and Ups Every spring, the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere decreases as terrestrial vegetation grows, and every fall, CO 2 rises as vegetation dies and rots. Climate change has destabilized the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 such that Graven et al. (p. 1085 , published online 8 August; see the Perspective by Fung ) have found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle has exceeded 50% at some latitudes. The only way to explain this increase is if extratropical land ecosystems are growing and shrinking more than they did half a century ago, as a result of changes in the structure and composition of northern ecosystems.

A generalized terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC (for BIOME BioGeoChemical Cycles), was used to simulate the global fluxes of CO 2 resulting from photosynthesis, autotrophic respiration, and heterotrophic respiration. Daily meteorological data for the year 1987, gridded to 1° by 1°, were used to drive the model simulations. From the maximum value of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 1987, the leaf area index for each grid cell was computed. Global NPP was estimated to be 52 Pg C, and global R h was estimated to be 66 Pg C. Model predictions of the stable carbon isotopic ratio 13 C/ 12 C for C3 and C 4 vegetation were in accord with values published in the literature, suggesting that our computations of total net photosynthesis, and thus NPP, are more reliable than R h . For each grid cell, daily R h was adjusted so that the annual total was equal to annual NPP, and the resulting net carbon fluxes were used as inputs to a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM2) using wind data from 1987. We compared the spatial and seasonal patterns of NPP with a diagnostic NDVI model, where NPP was derived from biweekly NDVI data and Rh was tuned to fit atmospheric CO 2 observations from three northern stations. To an encouraging degree, predictions from the BIOME-BGC model agreed in phase and amplitude with observed atmospheric CO 2 concentrations for 20° to 55°N, the zone in which the most complete data on ecosystem processes and meteorological input data are available. However, in the tropics and high northern latitudes, disagreements between simulated and measured CO 2 concentrations indicated areas where the model could be improved. We present here a methodology by which terrestrial ecosystem models can be tested globally, not by comparisons to homogeneous-plot data, but by seasonal and spatial consistency with a diagnostic NDVI model and atmospheric CO 2 observations.

The main objective of this project was to continue research to develop carbon cycle relationships related to the land biosphere based on remote measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration and its isotopic ratios 13C/12C, 18O/16O, and 14C/12C. The project continued time-series observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and isotopic composition begun by Charles D. Keeling at remote sites, including Mauna Loa, the South Pole, and eight other sites. Using models of varying complexity, the concentration and isotopic measurements were used to study long-term change in the interhemispheric gradients in CO2 and 13C/12C to assess the magnitude and evolution of the northern terrestrial carbon sink, to study the increase in amplitude of the seasonal cycle of CO2, to use isotopic data to refine constraints on large scale changes in isotopic fractionation which may be related to changes in stomatal conductance, and to motivate improvements in terrestrial carbon cycle models. The original proposal called for a continuation of the new time series of 14C measurements but subsequent descoping to meet budgetary constraints required termination of measurements in 2007.

The primary goal of our research program, consistent with the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and funded by the terrestrial carbon processes (TCP) program of DOE, has been to improve understanding of changes in the distribution and cycling of carbon among the active land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs, with particular emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach is to systematically measure atmospheric CO2 to produce time series data essential to reveal temporal and spatial patterns. Additional measurements of the 13C/12C isotopic ratio of CO2 provide a basis for distinguishing organic and inorganic processes. To pursue the significance of these patterns further, our research also involved interpretations of the observations by models, measurements of inorganic carbon in sea water, and of CO2 in air near growing land plants.

The buildup of atmospheric CO 2 since 1958 is surprisingly well explained by the simple premise that 57% of the industrial emissions (fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture) has remained airborne. This premise accounts well for the rise both before and after 1980 despite a decrease in the growth rate of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, which occurred at that time, and by itself should have caused the airborne fraction to decrease. In contrast, the buildup prior to 1958 was not simply proportional to cumulative fossil fuel emissions, and notably included a period during the 1940s when CO 2 growth stalled despite continued fossil fuel emissions. Here we show that the constancy of the airborne fraction since 1958 can be in part explained by decadal variations in global land air temperature, which caused a warming-induced release of CO 2 from the land biosphere to the atmosphere. We also show that the 1940s plateau may be related to these decadal temperature variations. Furthermore, we show that there is a close connection between the phenomenology producing CO 2 variability on multidecadal and El Nino timescales. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00439.x

An observed increase of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa Observatory has been examined. Previous global carbon cycle studies seemed to suggest, at least qualitatively, that the observed increase may be entirely due to a CO 2 fertilization effect on the terrestrial biota. The present detailed theoretical investigation shows that a pure CO 2 stimulation of the net primary production may indeed lead to an amplitude increase of 0.15 plus 0.17% yr -1 and minus 0.10% yr -1 as compared to the measured value of 0.67 ± 0.25% yr -1 for the period between AD 1958 and AD 1987. This result is based on the assumption of a long term fertilization factor β with a range between 0.15 and 0.60, taken to be equal to the mesaured short term fertilization factor β, obtained in CO 2 enrichment studies with exposure times generally smaller than 1 year. The experimental evaluation of the difference between the relative increase of the summer (peak to trough) and winter (trough to peak) amplitude gives information on the carbon sequestered annually by the terrestrial ecosystems. With the estimated respiration response factor, which characterizes the fraction of the additional production that is consumed by ecosystem respiration, equal to 0.75, and an assumed long-term CO 2 fertilization factor, β, equal to 0.375, acceptable agreement between prediction and measurements is obtained, amounting to a mean annual increase in living biomass of 0.7 Gt C, while a corresponding portion may be stored in soils. The fact that the fertilization alone predicts the observed difference but not the absolute value of both the summer and winter amplitude, leads to the conclusion that other external effects are operative, which are not directly related to the fertilization phenomenon of the vegetation and which influence to an equal extent the summer and winter amplitude. Two such external contributions have been identified; they are both related to the increased fossil fuel carbon input into the Northern Hemisphere: (1) the seasonality of the fossil fuel consumption in the Northern Hemisphere is approximately in phase with the relative uptake or release of CO 2 by the land vegetation and leads to a small contribution to the increase in amplitude, in the range between 0.01 and 0.08% yr -1 ; (2) the seasonally different transequatorial transport of fossil fuel carbon creates a seasonal behavior which again is approximately in phase with the biota and leads to an additional contribution in the range of 0 to 0.31% per year depending on the wind fields used. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.1989.tb00137.x