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With the process of economic transformation and structural adjustment, low-carbon development has become an intrinsic and realistic demand for China's national economic and social development. This paper builds a system dynamic (SD) model of China's low-carbon development based on the internal influencing mechanisms of carbon sources, carbon flows, and carbon sinks, and then explores the impact of carbon sources, carbon flows, and carbon sinks system on carbon emissions under different scenarios. The model in our study is effective and practical, and it can not only clearly demonstrate the interaction mechanism between various systems but also provide effective policy recommendations for policymakers. The results show that (1) with the steady growth of the economy, China's total energy consumption and carbon emissions have increased significantly. By 2025, the total energy consumption will reach 628 798 ten thousand tons, and the carbon emissions will reach 689 257 ten thousand tons; (2) as for energy and industrial structure, on the one hand, energy restructuring is more effective in reducing carbon emissions than is industrial restructuring; (3) carbon sinks also play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]