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Energy from biomass plays a large and growing role in the global energy system. Energy from biomass can make significant contributions to reducing carbon emissions, especially from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation, heavy transport, and manufacturing. But land-intensive bioenergy often entails substantial carbon emissions from land-use change as well as production, harvesting, and transportation. In addition, land-intensive bioenergy scales only with the utilization of vast amounts of land, a resource that is fundamentally limited in supply. Because of the land constraint, the intrinsically low yields of energy per unit of land area, and rapid technological progress in competing technologies, land intensive bioenergy makes the most sense as a transitional element of the global energy mix, playing an important role over the next few decades and then fading, probably after mid-century. Managing an effective trajectory for land-intensive bioenergy will require an unusual mix of policies and incentives that encourage appropriate utilization in the short term but minimize lock-in in the longer term., (© 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a negative-emissions technology that may play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. BECCS relies on the capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) following bioenergy production to remove and reliably sequester atmospheric CO 2 Previous BECCS deployment assessments have largely overlooked the potential lack of spatial colocation of suitable storage basins and biomass availability, in the absence of long-distance biomass and CO 2 transport. These conditions could constrain the near-term technical deployment potential of BECCS due to social and economic barriers that exist for biomass and CO 2 transport. This study leverages biomass production data and site-specific injection and storage capacity estimates at high spatial resolution to assess the near-term deployment opportunities for BECCS in the United States. If the total biomass resource available in the United States was mobilized for BECCS, an estimated 370 Mt CO 2 ⋅y -1 of negative emissions could be supplied in 2020. However, the absence of long-distance biomass and CO 2 transport, as well as limitations imposed by unsuitable regional storage and injection capacities, collectively decrease the technical potential of negative emissions to 100 Mt CO 2 ⋅y -1 Meeting this technical potential may require large-scale deployment of BECCS technology in more than 1,000 counties, as well as widespread deployment of dedicated energy crops. Specifically, the Illinois basin, Gulf region, and western North Dakota have the greatest potential for near-term BECCS deployment. High-resolution spatial assessment as conducted in this study can inform near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Forest ecosystems store approximately 45% of the carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, but they are sensitive to climate-induced dieback. Forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate-ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Current understanding of the physiological mechanisms mediating climate-induced forest mortality limits the ability to model or project these threshold events. We report here a direct and in situ study of the mechanisms underlying recent widespread and climate-induced trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) forest mortality in western North America. We find substantial evidence of hydraulic failure of roots and branches linked to landscape patterns of canopy and root mortality in this species. On the contrary, we find no evidence that drought stress led to depletion of carbohydrate reserves. Our results illuminate proximate mechanisms underpinning recent aspen forest mortality and provide guidance for understanding and projecting forest die-offs under climate change.

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO(2) emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000-2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y(-1). The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO(2) emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO(2) sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO(2) growth rate have been approximately 65 +/- 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 +/- 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 +/- 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate-carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.

To better understand agricultural carbon fluxes in California, USA, we estimated changes in soil carbon and woody material between 1980 and 2000 on 3.6 x 10(6) ha of farmland in California. Combining the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model with data on harvest indices and yields, we calculated net primary production, woody production in orchard and vineyard crops, and soil carbon. Over the 21-yr period, two trends resulted in carbon sequestration. Yields increased an average of 20%, corresponding to greater plant biomass and more carbon returned to the soils. Also, orchards and vineyards increased in area from 0.7 x 10(6) ha to 1.0 x 10(6) ha, displacing field crops and sequestering woody carbon. Our model estimates that California's agriculture sequestered an average of 19 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1). Sequestration was lowest in non-rice annual cropland, which sequestered 9 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) of soil carbon, and highest on land that switched from annual cropland to perennial cropland. Land that switched from annual crops to vineyards sequestered 68 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1), and land that switched from annual crops to orchards sequestered 85 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1). Rice fields, because of a reduction in field burning, sequestered 55 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) in the 1990s. Over the 21 years, California's 3.6 x 10(6) ha of agricultural land sequestered 11.0 Tg C within soils and 3.5 Tg C in woody biomass, for a total of 14.5 Tg C statewide. This is equal to 0.7% of the state's total fossil fuel emissions over the same time period. If California's agriculture adopted conservation tillage, changed management of almond and walnut prunings, and used all of its orchard and vineyard waste wood in the biomass power plants in the state, California's agriculture could offset up to 1.6% of the fossil fuel emissions in the state.

Carbon fluxes from tropical deforestation and regrowth are highly uncertain components of the contemporary carbon budget, due in part to the lack of spatially explicit and consistent information on changes in forest area. We estimate fluxes for the 1980s and 1990s using subpixel estimates of percent tree cover derived from coarse (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data in combination with a terrestrial carbon model. The satellite-derived estimates of change in forest area are lower than national reports and remote-sensing surveys from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) in all tropical regions, especially for the 1980s. However, our results indicate that the net rate of tropical forest clearing increased approximately 10% from the 1980s to 1990s, most notably in southeast Asia, in contrast to an 11% reduction reported by the FRA. We estimate net mean annual carbon fluxes from tropical deforestation and regrowth to average 0.6 (0.3-0.8) and 0.9 (0.5-1.4) petagrams (Pg).yr(-1) for the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Compared with previous estimates of 1.9 (0.6-2.5) Pg.yr(-1) based on FRA national statistics of changes in forest area, this alternative estimate suggests less "missing" carbon from the global carbon budget but increasing emissions from tropical land-use change.

For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 10(15) grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.