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An economic feasibility study must consider the uncertainties inherent to a mining project, whose risks must be quantified properly to enable accurate decisionmaking. Studies previously carried out through the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology in the project evaluated here - a quarry whose operations are currently interrupted, located in Pernambuco, Brazil, formerly taxed under the presumed profit regime - indicated a positive Net Present Value (NPV) in the deterministic scenario, therefore projecting a profitable project. However, a probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulations indicated only a 49.98% occurrence probability for this NPV. An assessment focused on the company's taxation was never carried out, which is a gap that the present study intends to fill, in addition to evaluating the feasibility of immediate investment in this project. Furthermore, this is a gap in Brazilian literature in general, which does not take into account the taxation system in their economic assessments. In this context, considering scenarios whose taxation was based on real and presumed profit regimes, we reassessed the cash flows of this quarry and performed deterministic and probabilistic economic analyses, and compared the results of both scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the production rate would be the most impactful variable in the project's NPV, considering the six variables assessed. Hence, it was verified in both deterministic and probabilistic analyses that taxation under real profit, results in a higher economic return with a 56.08% probability of the NPV being positive and with the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) higher than inflation (SELIC rate) at 4.81%; the taxation under the presumed profit, on the other hand, obtained respective probabilities of 46.54% and 3.23%. However, with the chances of obtaining some profit (NPV greater than zero) at the order of 50% and a minimal chance of the IRR being greater than the SELIC rate adopted at the time of this study, we would advise against investing in this venture. Moreover, even if the current moment is not the most suitable for investment in this sector, regardless of the production rate assessed in the probabilistic analysis, taxation on the real profit regime presented a greater economic return than taxation on the presumed profit regime., indicating that, for the parameters considered in this study, the first would be the most appropriate choice of tax system for this type of enterprise in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The general problem of developing profitability optima is considered at the conceptual level for chemical process designs. • Industrial estimates often employ IRR (Internal Rate of Return) to measure profitability, with a "traditional" hurdle rate to specify the required IRR (ROI). • The NPV % measure provides a more effective basis. Its parameters are adjustable to match the process, the financial environment, and profitability requirements. • Viewing long-term profitability (NPV project), short-term risk [(NPV %)−1] and total capital invested (TI), the first should be maximized ... the last two, minimized or at least subject to bounds. • A new graphical method, with NPV % plotted versus NPV project , couples the three objectives, thus avoiding a Pareto-style optimization with its arbitrary weightings. • The optimum design is at the point of diminishing returns for LT profitability. Any lower value of TI reduces max (NPV project); any larger value isn't fully recovered. Recent fundamental work with discounted cash flow methods shows that an alternative metric for evaluating profitability and risk, one different from Internal Rate of Return (IRR) —namely the annualized and non-dimensionalized Net Present Value (NPV %)— can make evaluating project profitability easier yet more informative. It provides a simple and transparent strategy to optimize a design's key financial dependent variables (capital investment, profitability, risk). 1 1 Model form was originally referred to as "inside-out," but is now called "exo-parametric," i.e., switching from the vernacular to a more scientific and widely-used terminology (Mellichamp, 2018). Both traditional and exo-parametric modeling methods developed by the author are linked to this metric, providing an efficient and precise mechanism to organize and carry out the financial/optimization search procedures in process design. Design engineers want to know what is the optimum size of investment (TI) that meets projected market conditions? What is the expected long-term (NPV) return? What metric can be used to maximize them, consistent with the need to recover capital as quickly as reasonably possible (i.e., to bound the "short-term risk")? The proposed approach answers all three questions simultaneously, with a precise min-max solution obtained transparently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the concept of an integration model of financial analysis methods of investment projects is presented. The described approach concerns the discounted cash flow methods and is focused on the future value growth of an investment. The defined relationships between these methods make it possible to illustrate the main perspectives of efficiency analysis. The aim of this article is to bring many methods of analysis together in a common framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article surveys contributions to the literature covering the field of probabilistic discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of individual capital investments from the earliest contributions of the 1960s to today. Such analysis includes the methods of present worth (net present value), annual worth, future worth, internal rate of return, payback period, and benefit:cost ratio. The history and development of the probabilistic case is traced, listing the main assumptions made and any restrictions to applications. The survey will be found useful by those engaged in risk management and decisions associated with investments and budgeting having uncertain outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]