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Purpose: To determine if physician prediction of survival duration (PSD) is accurate for patients with metastatic breast or prostate cancer. Methods: Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 9714 (RTOG 9714) was a randomized comparison of radiotherapy schedules for treatment of bone metastases. The treating physician assigned a baseline Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) and predicted survival duration at study entry. Patients completed the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT). These three were compared to actual survival time. Results: Eight hundred ninety-eight patients were eligible and analyzable. Actual median survival was 9.3 months. The median PSD was 12 months. PSD, KPS, and FACT were all moderately correlated with actual survival. Patients with higher KPS had a longer survival time (882 patients, Spearman's ρ = 0.259, p < 0.0001). The median survival of the 618 expired patients is 6.5 months (PSD was 12 months). The PSD was within 1 month of actual survival in 61 (10%), with 177 (29%) patients surviving more than 1 month longer than predicted and 375 (61%) surviving more than 1 month less than predicted. A univariate analysis of actual overall survival was performed, dividing the PSD into 4 groups. For predicted survivals of 6 months or less, less than 6 to less than 12 months, 12 months, and more than 12 months, median actual survivals were 7.0, 7.2, 9.7. and 13.5 months ( p < 0.0001). Conclusions: KPS, FACT scores, and PSD all are correlated with actual survival. Physicians on this study were able to predict which patients would have longer survival times, although prediction of survival was optimistic compared to actual survival by an average of 3 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Radiation therapy is effective in palliating pain from bone metastases. We investigated whether 8 Gy delivered in a single treatment fraction provides pain and narcotic relief that is equivalent to that ot the standard treatment course of 30 Gy delivered in 10 treatment fractions over 2 weeks. Methods: A prospective, phase III randomized study of palliative radiation therapy was conducted for patients with breast or prostate cancer who had one to three sites of painful bone metastases and mod!rate to severe pain. Patients were randomly assigned to 8 Gy in one treatment fraction (8-Gy arm) or to 30 Gy in 10 treatment fractions (30-Gy arm). Pain relief at 3 months after randomization was evaluated with the Brief Pain Inventory. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare response to treatment in terms of pain and narcotic relief between the two arms and for each stratification variable. All statistical comparisons were two-sided. Results: There were 455 patients in the 8-Gy arm and 443 in the 30-Gy arm; pretreatment characteristics were equally balanced between arms. Grade 2-4 acute toxicity was more frequent in the 30-Gy arm (17%) than in the 8-Gy arm (10%) (difference = 7%! 95% CI = 3% to 12%; P .002). Late toxicity was rare (4%) in both arms. The over- all response rate was 66%. Complete and partial response rates were 15% and 50%, respectively, in the 8-Gy arm coma pared with 18% and 48% in the 40-Gy arm (P = .6). At 3 months, 33% of all patients no longer required narcotic medications. The incidence of subsequent pathologic fracture was 5% for the 8-Gy arm and 4% for the 30-Gy arm. The retreatment rate was statistically significantly higher in the 8-Gy arm (18%) than in the 30-Gy arm (9%)(P<.001). Conclusions: Both regimens were equivalent in forms of pain and narcotic relief at 3 months and were well tolerated with few adverse effects. The 8-Gy arm had a higher rate of re-treatment but had less acute toxicity than the 30-Gy arm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]