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Crop yields directly affect carbon (C) inputs into soils. Tillage management can influence crop performance, and as such should be considered when quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) change, and thus net greenhouse gas emissions from croplands for national greenhouse gas inventory reporting. We conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of no-tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT) on crop yields for multiple crop species, soil types, and climatic regions of Canada. Yield response to NT varied between western and eastern Canada. Regardless of crop type, experiment duration, soil texture, and residue management, experiments in eastern Canada showed an average of 6% lower yields (p ≤ 0.005) under NT compared to CT. In western Canada, crop type had an important effect on yields between NT and CT with wheat, canola, and legumes exhibiting 10% (p ≤ 0.001), 7% (p ≤ 0.05), and 9% (p ≤ 0.05) higher yields on average under NT compared to CT, respectively. In western Canada, higher yields would be reflected in a similar scale of higher C inputs to NT systems. A recent meta-analysis of the effects of tillage management on SOC in Canada showed an 8% higher storage of SOC under NT systems compared to CT, a difference limited to western Canadian soils. Incorporating the effect of tillage on C inputs will lead to improvements in the accuracy of the effects of tillage management on SOC change in Canadian cropland. The activity data can be improved by applying weightings to the yield data by site-specific assessment of tillage practices across Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National estimates of changes in the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) in cropland requires an assessment of uncertainty for accounting and reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. Canada has data sets on SOC stocks in croplands, historical changes in SOC levels due to management practices, and historical changes in the area of land devoted to certain soil management practices. We conducted an analysis of uncertainty of the change in SOC levels due to management practices in Canada from 1991 to 2001 using Monte Carlo analysis and a simple model. Probability distribution functions were determined for each of the inputs of the model, enabling us to assess the uncertainty for the output. The storage rate of SOC in cropland soils of Canada for the 10-year period ranged from 3.2 to 8.3 Mt C yr−1 at 95% confidence, with a mean of 5.7 Mt C yr−1. Approximately 67% (about 3.8 Mt C yr−1) of the increase in SOC storage in Canada occurred in Saskatchewan where the cropland area under no-till increased from 10% to 35%, and the area of summer-fallow declined from 43% to 20% during the study period. The large uncertainty in the effect of no-till on SOC stock changes in the Gray-Brown Luvisols of Ontario contributed most to the variance in the model output. If trends in agricultural management continue for the next 10-year census period, the estimated SOC storage would comprise between 7% and 19% of the gap required to achieve the 6% reduction in 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels for Canada under the Kyoto Protocol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The farm-level model Holos, developed to explore mitigation options for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from Canadian farming systems, includes soil carbon change as a prominent component. Soil carbon was assumed to be constant, except where there was recent change in land use or management (e.g., conventional vs. reduced vs. no tillage). The factors associated with the changes were derived using CENTURY model simulations. To make Holos more responsive to farm management (e.g., crop rotation and residue management) and inter-annual climate variation, it was decided to replace the carbon change factors with the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM), a simple two carbon pool model driven by inputs from above- and belowground crop residues and manure. We showcase how the model will simulate the impact of crop rotation management decisions on soil carbon change, focussing on the choice of crop and crop residue retention, but considering also tillage and fertilization management. We argue that simulating carbon change at each field involved in the rotation is advantageous because it allows to test the rotation resilience with respect to inter-annual climate variation as well as to validate the model outputs using measurements of scientific long-term field experiments. We propose to report the farm-level carbon change results ranging from annual to centennial time frames which would be in line with the reporting requirements in carbon credit programs, while giving the user the capability to project and test new crop rotation systems using long-term carbon change forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]