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Pseudo-nitzschia species with the ability to produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) are the main cause of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the U.S. West Coast, with major impacts on ecosystems, fisheries, and human health. While most Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) HAB studies to date have focused on their characteristics at specific sites, few cross-regional comparisons exist, and mechanistic understanding of large-scale HAB drivers remains incomplete. To close these gaps, we compiled a nearly 20-year time series of in situ particulate DA and environmental observations to characterize similarities and differences in PN HAB drivers along the California coast. We focus on three DA hotspots with the greatest data density: Monterey Bay, the Santa Barbara Channel, and the San Pedro Channel. Coastwise, DA outbreaks are strongly correlated with upwelling, chlorophyll-a, and silicic acid limitation relative to other nutrients. Clear differences also exist across the three regions, with contrasting responses to climate regimes across a north to south gradient. In Monterey Bay, PN HAB frequency and intensity increase under relatively nutrient-poor conditions during anomalously low upwelling intensities. In contrast, in the Santa Barbara and San Pedro Channels, PN HABs are favored under cold, nitrogen-rich conditions during more intense upwelling. These emerging patterns provide insights on ecological drivers of PN HABs that are consistent across regions and support the development of predictive capabilities for DA outbreaks along the California coast and beyond.

In the California Current Ecosystem, El Niño acts as a natural phenomenon that is partially representative of climate change impacts on marine bacteria at timescales relevant to microbial communities. Between 2014-2016, the North Pacific warm anomaly (a.k.a., the "blob") and an El Niño event resulted in prolonged ocean warming in the Southern California Bight (SCB). To determine whether this "marine heatwave" resulted in shifts in microbial populations, we sequenced the rpoC1 gene from the biogeochemically important picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus at 434 time points from 2009-2018 in the MICRO time series at Newport Beach, CA. Across the time series, we observed an increase in the abundance of Prochlorococcus relative to Synechococcus as well as elevated frequencies of ecotypes commonly associated with low-nutrient and high-temperature conditions. The relationships between environmental and ecotype trends appeared to operate on differing temporal scales. In contrast to ecotype trends, most microdiverse populations were static and possibly reflect local habitat conditions. The only exceptions were microdiversity from Prochlorococcous HLI and Synechococcus Clade II that shifted in response to the 2015 El Niño event. Overall, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations did not return to their pre-heatwave composition by the end of this study. This research demonstrates that extended warming in the SCB can result in persistent changes in key microbial populations.