1. Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study
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Harry D Wilson, Elaine O'Toole, Andrew Bassett, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Beth Blane, Scott Goodwin, Giri Shankar, Joseph Hughes, Lucy R. Frost, Alicia Thornton, Scott Elliott, Tammy V Merrill, Sheila Waugh, Alexander Adams, Peter Muir, Graciela Sluga, Rebecca Williams, Hannah Dent, Christophe Fraser, Shavanthi Rajatileka, John C. Hartley, Luke B Snell, Benjamin J Cogger, Lance Turtle, Alex Makunin, John A. Todd, Victoria Wright, Daniela De Angelis, James McKenna, Dinesh Aggarwal, Jonathan K. Ball, Jillian Durham, Garren Scott, Thushan I de Silva, Veena Raviprakash, Hannah M Pymont, Jason Coombes, Anita Lucaci, Luke R. Green, Leigh M Jackson, Hermione J. Webster, Louis du Plessis, David A. Jackson, Minal Patel, Áine O'Toole, Ravi Gupta, Marc Niebel, Garry Scarlett, Rajiv Shah, Guy Mollett, Kathy Li, Rory Gunson, Matthew Bashton, Carl Jones, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, Zoltan Molnar, Siona Silveira, Malte L Pinckert, Catherine Ludden, Angeliki Karamani, Leanne Kane, Brendan A I Payne, Alan McNally, Clare M. McCann, Holli Carden, Mohammad Raza, Alison E. Mather, Kate B. Cook, Amy Gaskin, David J. Williams, Shaun R. Seaman, Christopher I. Jones, Gilberto Betancor, Matthew T. G. Holden, Jennifier Liddle, Meera Unnikrishnan, Angie Green, Ben Taylor, Kelly Bicknell, Alexander J. Trotter, Emma Meader, Leanne M Kermack, Nathaniel Storey, Michelle Cronin, Sally Forrest, Sarah Jeremiah, Asad Zaidi, M Morgan, Alasdair MacLean, Thomas R. Connor, Johnathan M Evans, Rachael Stanley, Ryan P George, Nadine Holmes, Richard H. Myers, Christine Sambles, Bernardo Gutierrez, Jeffrey K. J. Cheng, Tim Wyatt, Natasha Jesudason, Lindsay Coupland, Monika Pusok, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Jenifer Mason, Joshua Maksimovic, Russell Hope, Alison Holmes, David Simpson, Radoslaw Poplawski, Amelia Joseph, Erwan Acheson, James Bonfield, Mara K. N. Lawniczak, Sascha Ott, Lesley-Anne Williams, Jessica Lynch, Graham P. Taylor, Anita Kenyon, Elizabeth Wastenge, Megan Mayhew, Adhyana I K Mahanama, Stavroula F Louka, Chloe Bishop, Esther Robinson, Darren Smith, Anne M. Presanis, Matthew Carlile, Thomas D Stanton, Dennis Wang, Katerina Galai, Adam P Westhorpe, Flavia Flaviani, Michelle Wantoch, Max Whiteley, Yann Bourgeois, Matthew Gemmell, Mary Ramsay, A Lloyd, Simon Thelwall, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Joseph G. Chappell, Steve Paterson, Gary Eltringham, Robert Impey, Siddharth Mookerjee, Steven Platt, Emma Swindells, Laura Letchford, Alex Alderton, Lee Graham, Safiah Afifi, David C. Lee, Cassie Breen, Melisa Louise Fenton, Benita Percival, Adrian W Signell, Tanya Golubchik, Ian B Vipond, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Angie Lackenby, Laura Atkinson, Sarojini Pandey, Nazreen F. Hadjirin, Michael A Chapman, Huw Gulliver, Joana Dias, Grant Hall, Antony D Hale, Hassan Hartman, Alp Aydin, Louise Smith, Ashok Dadrah, Johnny Debebe, Sarah Walsh, Stephanie W. Lo, Andrew Bosworth, Bridget Knight, Hannah E Bridgewater, Nadua Bayzid, Gemma L. Kay, Richard Gregory, Sally Kay, Ellena Brooks, Andre Charlett, Georgina M McManus, Riaz Jannoo, Victoria Blakey, Carol Scott, Rachel Nelson, Liz Ratcliffe, Gerry Tonkin-Hill, Verity Hill, Joanne D. Stockton, Danielle Leek, Steven Leonard, Stephanie Hutchings, Jonathan D. Moore, Kathryn Ann Harris, Sophie Jones, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Amy Plimmer, Tanzina Haque, Katherine L. Bellis, Khalil Abudahab, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Gaia Nebbia, Kathryn A Jackson, Stephen W Attwood, Daniel Mair, Sreenu Vattipally, Susanne Stonehouse, Ian Merrick, Lucille Rainbow, Mathew A. Beale, Angela Helen Beckett, Ember Hilvers, Thomas Helmer, Jenna Nichols, Giselda Bucca, Salman Goudarzi, Christopher Ruis, Surendra Parmar, Angela Cowell, Alberto C Cerda, Divya K. Shah, Judith Heaney, E. Thomson, Kyriaki Nomikou, Nicole Pacchiarini, Katherine L Harper, Fatima Downing, M. Estée Török, Michelle L Michelsen, Aaron R. Jeffries, Jennifer Collins, Christopher Williams, Katie F. Loveson, Steven Rudder, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Robert Davies, David Robertson, Katherine Smollett, Kathryn McCluggage, Liam Crawford, Inigo Martincorena, Charlotte Beaver, Oliver Megram, Karla Spellman, Sam Haldenby, Emma Betteridge, William D. Fuller, Will P. M. Rowe, Cherian Koshy, Tim E. A. Peto, Alison Cox, Natasha Johnson, Tanya Curran, Sharif Shaaban, Tamyo Mbisa, Cordelia Langford, Eric Witele, Andrew J. Page, Christoph Puethe, Nicola Reynolds, Paul W Bird, Louise Aigrain, Ronan Lyons, Amy Trebes, Sally Corden, Steven Rushton, Jack Cd Lee, Jane Greenaway, Hibo Asad, Amanda Bradley, Mohammed O Hassan-Ibrahim, Shane McCarthy, Fei Sang, Matthew Loose, Hannah Jones, Keith D. James, Chloe L Fisher, Chrystala Constantinidou, Alex G. Richter, Jane A. H. Masoli, Michael Gallagher, Vicki M. Fleming, Anna Price, Amy Ash, Michaela John, Alex Zarebski, Fenella D. Halstead, John Danesh, Christine Kitchen, Aminu S Jahun, Mark Whitehead, Julianne R Brown, Catherine Bresner, Marius Cotic, Stefanie V Lensing, Nick Levene, Louissa R Macfarlane-Smith, Wendy Hogsden, Cressida Auckland, Eleanor Drury, Richard Eccles, Jennifer Hart, Seema Nickbakhsh, Alisha Davies, David M. Aanensen, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Ben Farr, Buddhini Samaraweera, Sarah Wyllie, Hannah Lowe, Richard J. Orton, Martin D. Curran, Carol Churcher, Karen Oliver, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Wen Yew, Thanh Le-Viet, Matthew Parker, Katherine A Twohig, Shahjahan Miah, Samuel M. Nicholls, G MacIntyre-Cockett, Tranprit Saluja, Charlotte Nelson, Vicki Chalker, Roberto Amato, Ellen Higginson, Timothy M. Freeman, Christopher W Holmes, Yasmin Chaudhry, Elias Allara, Alec Birchley, Iraad Bronner, Emma Moles-Garcia, Angus I. Best, Anna L. Casey, Audrey Farbos, Nicholas W Machin, David W Eyre, Tim Boswell, Charlotte A Williams, Elen De Lacy, Matthew J. Bull, Matilde Mori, Carmen F. Manso, Peijun Zhang, Sahar Eldirdiri, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Corin Yeats, Claudia Wierzbicki, David G Partridge, Kordo Saeed, Nichola Duckworth, David J. Studholme, Harmeet K Gill, Juan Ledesma, Thomas R. A. Davis, Sushmita Sridhar, Clive Graham, Husam Osman, Julian A. Hiscox, Helen Adams, Christopher Fearn, Fabrícia F. Nascimento, Ulf Schaefer, James W. Harrison, Andrew J. Nelson, Joshua Quick, Mohammad Tauqeer Alam, Liam Prestwood, Nikos Manesis, Julian Tang, Justin O'Grady, Sophia T Girgis, Louise Berry, Gemma Clark, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Karlie Fallon, Tim J Sloan, Joanne Watkins, Clare Pearson, Andrew D Beggs, Rachel Williams, Luke Bedford, Trevor Robinson, Nicholas M Redshaw, Richard Hopes, Mirko Menegazzo, Katherine Twohig, Gabrielle Vernet, Steven Liggett, Mariateresa de Cesare, Derrick W. Crook, Dominic P. Kwiatkowski, Mark Kristiansen, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, Christopher I. Moore, Claire Cormie, Olivia Boyd, Nikki Smith, Noel Craine, Kathleen A. Williamson, John Boyes, Sian Ellard, Cristina V. Ariani, Wendy Chatterton, David Bonsall, Kevin Lewis, David Jorgensen, Ian Harrison, Christopher Jackson, Martin P McHugh, Danni Weldon, Michael A. Quail, Amita Patel, Lily Geidelberg, Myra Hosmillo, Judith Breuer, Cariad Evans, Edward Barton, Trudy Workman, Derek Fairley, Vineet Patel, Daniel Bradshaw, Robin Manley, Scott Aj Thurston, John Sillitoe, Monique Andersson, Sharon J. Peacock, Jamie Lopez-Bernal, Thomas Thompson, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Ben Temperton, Paul Baker, Robin J Moll, Laura Gifford, Nicholas J. Loman, Jayna Raghwani, Jacqui Prieto, Andrew Hesketh, Oliver G. Pybus, Adela Alcolea-Medina, David Buck, Gregory R Young, Alistair C. Darby, Sónia Gonçalves, Aileen G. Rowan, Tabitha Mahungu, Nicholas Ellaby, Jon-Paul Keatley, Lily Tong, Robert Beer, Martyn Guest, Lisa J Levett, Ali R Awan, Iliana Georgana, Paul E Brown, Li Xu-McCrae, Stephen P. Kidd, Sara Rey, Shazaad Ahmad, Danielle C. Groves, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, David F. Bibby, Nathan Moore, Fiona Ashcroft, Igor Starinskij, Hannah Paul, Claire McMurray, Michael Spencer Chapman, Carlos Balcazar, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Pinglawathee Madona, Edith Vamos, Lesley Shirley, Kate Templeton, Luke Foulser, Igor Siveroni, Ewan M. Harrison, Sian Morgan, Diana Rajan, S Taylor, Laia Fina, Naomi Park, Sarah J. O'Brien, Alessandro M Carabelli, Angela Marchbank, Sunando Roy, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Steve Palmer, Jonathan Hubb, Alexander J Keeley, Francesc Coll, Malorie Perry, Paul J. Parsons, Anthony Underwood, Patawee Asamaphan, William L Hamilton, Tommy Nyberg, Sophie Palmer, Amanda Symmonds, Anoop Chauhan, Robert Johnson, Christopher J. R. Illingworth, James Shepherd, Wendy Smith, Rich Livett, Rachel Blacow, Margaret Hughes, Jeremy Mirza, Joanne Watts, Jonathan D. Edgeworth, Sarah François, Sue Edwards, Adrienn Angyal, Thomas N. Williams, Marta Gallis, Lauren Gilbert, Paul Randell, Kate Johnson, Eileen Gallagher, Nick Cortes, Yusri Taha, Leah Ensell, Emanuela Pelosi, Stefan Rooke, Michelle Lister, Ana da Silva Filipe, Cassandra S Malone, Themoula Charalampous, Benjamin B Lindsey, Natalie Groves, Colin Smith, Ross J Harris, Rebekah E Wilson, Stephen Bonner, Richard Stark, Sharon Campbell, Nicola Sheriff, Helen L Lowe, Rachel Jones, Ben Warne, Rose K Davidson, Declan Bradley, Ian Johnston, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Joshua B Singer, Shirin Aliabadi, Andrew Whitwham, Patrick McClure, Samuel Robson, Sharon Glaysher, Robert J. Munn, Emma L. Wise, Laura Baxter, Kim S Smith, Catherine Moore, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Alice Broos, Sarah Essex, David Baker, Manjinder Khakh, Dorota Jamrozy, Rachel Tucker, Ian Goodfellow, S.E. Moses, Nicola Cumley, Robin Howe, Meera Chand, James I. Price, Marina Gourtovaia, Debra Padgett, Jaime Tovar-Corona, Stephen L. Michell, Matthew J. Dorman, Lizzie Meadows, David Heyburn, Iona Willingham, Rocio Martinez Nunez, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Claire M Bewshea, Anita Justice, Simon Cottrell, Rebecca C H Brown, Jamie Young, Gavin Dabrera, Matthew Wyles, Stephen Carmichael, Lisa Berry, Frances Bolt, Andrew Rambaut, Samir Dervisevic, Erik M. Volz, Rahul Batra, Caoimhe McKerr, Samantha McGuigan, Katie Jones, Mailis Maes, Rebecca Dewar, Mary Sinnathamby, Joel Southgate, and Lynn Monaghan
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medicine.medical_specialty ,business.industry ,Proportional hazards model ,Public health ,Hazard ratio ,Attendance ,C500 ,Vaccination ,Infectious Diseases ,Relative risk ,Internal medicine ,Cohort ,medicine ,business ,Cohort study - Abstract
Background: \ud The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes.\ud \ud Methods: \ud This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status.\ud \ud Findings: \ud Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low.\ud \ud Interpretation: \ud This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.\ud \ud Funding: \ud Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research.
- Published
- 2022