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We use data from the period 2009-15 to estimate the impact of the public policy aiming to decrease the taxes paid by companies over their payroll. The objective of this program, so called Less Taxes on the Payroll ("Desoneração da Folha de Pagamento"), was to burst the employment in the firms benefited by the tax cut. Overall our econometric results show no employment effect of this program.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the One Computer Per Student Program (Prouca), from the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), performance in the Brazil Test (Prova Brasil) and the National High School Examination (ENEM), both at school level, using the differences-in-differences method combined with the propensity score matching (PSM), and at the student level, using the PSM. The results showed that the program had a positive impact on students' performance in the final years of the Brazil Test (Portuguese and mathematics) and in the Enem language and codes and writing tests in 2010, as well as in all tests in 2011 - including the average of the exams - except in writing. At the school level, the program had a positive impact on the writing test and the average of the Enem assessments, the analysis between 2009 and 2010, and the natural science and writing tests as well as in the total average, in the research between 2009 and 2011.

This paper estimates a VAR model representing the new-Keynesian Phillips curve with exchange rate shocks for the Brazilian economy. The unemployment rate from the PME survey is our proxy for the marginal cost, inflation is measured by the CPI, and expectations were obtained from the Central Bank survey with the financial market. The empirical findings may be summed up in the following: a) the exchange rate pass-through is around 0.04 p.p. to the next month inflation (above 0.4 p.p. in the annualized rate) after an exogenous variation of R$ 0,01 in the dollar price, but this effect is insignificant; b) a shock on the unemployment rate lasts abound 18 months; c) an innovation of 0,06 p.p. on expectations is carried to inflation which is increased by 0,05 p.p. in the month following the shock (0.6 p.p. over the annualized inflation); and d) a shock on the inflation rate has no effect over the unemployment rate, that is, more inflation does not reduce unemployment. Este artigo estima um modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) representando a curva de Phillips novo keynesiana com choques cambiais. A taxa de desemprego da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) do IBGE é a proxy para o custo marginal, a inflação é medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) e as expectativas foram obtidas do boletim Focus do Banco Central do Brasil. Os resultados indicam que: a) o pass-through cambial é de cerca de 0,04 p.p. na inflação do mês seguinte ao choque de R$ 0,01 no preço do dólar (mais de 0,4 p.p. na inflação anualizada), mas esse efeito é insignificante; b) um choque médio na taxa de desemprego demora ao redor de 18 meses para desaparecer; c) uma inovação de 0,06 p.p. na expectativa de inflação é carregada para a inflação, que atinge um máximo de 0,05 p.p. no mês seguinte ao choque (0,6 p.p. na inflação anualizada); e d) choques na série de inflação não afetam a taxa de desemprego, isto é, mais inflação não reduz o desemprego.

This study aims to estimate the system of bank credit demand and supply in Brazil. Understanding how the balance is established in this market is the key to know the importance of the credit channel. Based on the aggregated data from June 2000 to August 2012 not only for firms but also for individuals we founded the following results. First, credit demand is pro-cyclical, reacting negatively to the unemployment and positively to GDP. Second, the price elasticity of demand for firms is higher for firms than for individuals, corroborating the fact that companies may have other sources of funding. Thirdly, it was not possible to determine the bank credit supply to individuals. This fact seems to indicate that there is no reverse causality in the personnel credit in the sense that, for this segment, the credit demand has no effect on the loan rate. Fourth, we observe the expected signs into default, the cost of funding and inflation in credit supply function in both segments. Finally, it appears that the introduction of payroll loans on personnel credit brought down the cost of the loan.

This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by statistical techniques, suggesting the Federal government, with equivocate fiscal and monetary policy, as the main responsible for the creation of this problem.

We estimate a VAR model of the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Several different specifications, with different time frequencies, were estimated. Overall the results were robust to these changes, and can be summed up in the following: i) the pass-through to the next month inflation is around 0.04 percentage points (p.p.) (0.48 p.p. over the annualized inflation); ii) a shock on the unemployment rate lasts for 18 months; iii) a shock on the expectations are carried to the next month inflation (0.58 p.p. over the annualized inflation); and iv) a shock on the inflation rate has no effect over the unemployment rate. That is, more inflation does not reduce unemployment.