1. Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in the US as of September 2020
- Author
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William A. Meyer, Mohit Mathur, Marjorie Biel, Lyle R. Petersen, Fiona Havers, Kristina L Bajema, Chris Edens, Lee Harding, Kelly Martin, Davia Moyse, Alicia M. Fry, Adam Lee, Tonja M. Kyle, Ronaldo Iachan, Aron J. Hall, Yangyang Deng, Natalie J. Thornburg, Adi V. Gundlapalli, Kendra M. Cuffe, Sadhna V. Patel, Travis Lim, and Ryan E. Wiegand
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,Adolescent ,Cross-sectional study ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,viruses ,Demographic profile ,01 natural sciences ,Serology ,COVID-19 Serological Testing ,03 medical and health sciences ,Young Adult ,0302 clinical medicine ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,Internal Medicine ,Prevalence ,Medicine ,Seroprevalence ,Online First ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,0101 mathematics ,Young adult ,skin and connective tissue diseases ,Child ,Original Investigation ,Aged ,Aged, 80 and over ,Routine screening ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Research ,010102 general mathematics ,fungi ,Infant, Newborn ,virus diseases ,COVID-19 ,Infant ,Middle Aged ,United States ,body regions ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Child, Preschool ,Female ,Public Health ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Key Points Question What proportion of persons across 52 US jurisdictions had detectable antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from July to September 2020? Findings In this repeated, cross-sectional study of 177 919 residual clinical specimens, the estimated percentage of persons in a jurisdiction with detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies ranged from fewer than 1% to 23%. Over 4 sampling periods in 42 of 49 jurisdictions with calculated estimates, fewer than 10% of people had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Meaning While SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence estimates varied widely across jurisdictions, most people in the US did not have evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection., Importance Case-based surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection likely underestimates the true prevalence of infections. Large-scale seroprevalence surveys can better estimate infection across many geographic regions. Objective To estimate the prevalence of persons with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using residual sera from commercial laboratories across the US and assess changes over time. Design, Setting, and Participants This repeated, cross-sectional study conducted across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico used a convenience sample of residual serum specimens provided by persons of all ages that were originally submitted for routine screening or clinical management from 2 private clinical commercial laboratories. Samples were obtained during 4 collection periods: July 27 to August 13, August 10 to August 27, August 24 to September 10, and September 7 to September 24, 2020. Exposures Infection with SARS-CoV-2. Main Outcomes and Measures The proportion of persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 as measured by the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 by 1 of 3 chemiluminescent immunoassays. Iterative poststratification was used to adjust seroprevalence estimates to the demographic profile and urbanicity of each jurisdiction. Seroprevalence was estimated by jurisdiction, sex, age group (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years), and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status. Results Of 177 919 serum samples tested, 103 771 (58.3%) were from women, 26 716 (15.0%) from persons 17 years or younger, 47 513 (26.7%) from persons 65 years or older, and 26 290 (14.8%) from individuals living in nonmetropolitan areas. Jurisdiction-level seroprevalence over 4 collection periods ranged from less than 1% to 23%. In 42 of 49 jurisdictions with sufficient samples to estimate seroprevalence across all periods, fewer than 10% of people had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence estimates varied between sexes, across age groups, and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas. Changes from period 1 to 4 were less than 7 percentage points in all jurisdictions and varied across sites. Conclusions and Relevance This cross-sectional study found that as of September 2020, most persons in the US did not have serologic evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, although prevalence varied widely by jurisdiction. Biweekly nationwide testing of commercial clinical laboratory sera can play an important role in helping track the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the US., This cross-sectional study examines the prevalence of persons with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies across the US and changes from July to September 2020.
- Published
- 2020