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Aims To assess the recording and accuracy of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital admissions between two electronic health record databases within an English cancer population over time and understand the factors that affect case-ascertainment. Methods and results We identified 112 502 hospital admissions for AMI in England 2010–2017 from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) disease registry and hospital episode statistics (HES) for 95 509 patients with a previous cancer diagnosis up to 15 years prior to admission. Cancer diagnoses were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRD). We calculated the percentage of AMI admissions captured by each source and examined patient characteristics associated with source of ascertainment. Survival analysis assessed whether differences in survival between case-ascertainment sources could be explained by patient characteristics. A total of 57 265 (50.9%) AMI admissions in patients with a prior diagnosis of cancer were captured in both MINAP and HES. Patients captured in both sources were younger, more likely to have ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and had better prognosis, with lower mortality rates up to 9 years after AMI admission compared with patients captured in only one source. The percentage of admissions captured in both data sources improved over time. Cancer characteristics (site, stage, and grade) had little effect on how AMI was captured. Conclusion MINAP and HES define different populations of patients with AMI. However, cancer characteristics do not substantially impact on case-ascertainment. These findings support a strategy of using multiple linked data sources for observational cardio-oncological research into AMI.

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality and devastated economies globally. Among groups at increased risk are healthcare workers (HCWs) and ethnic minority groups. Emerging evidence suggests that HCWs from ethnic minority groups are at increased risk of adverse COVID-19-related outcomes. To date, there has been no large-scale analysis of these risks in UK HCWs or ancillary workers in healthcare settings, stratified by ethnicity or occupation, and adjusted for confounders. This paper reports the protocol for a prospective longitudinal questionnaire study of UK HCWs, as part of the UK-REACH programme (The United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers).Methods and analysisA baseline questionnaire will be administered to a national cohort of UK HCWs and ancillary workers in healthcare settings, and those registered with UK healthcare regulators, with follow-up questionnaires administered at 4 and 8 months. With consent, questionnaire data will be linked to health records with 25-year follow-up. Univariate associations between ethnicity and clinical COVID-19 outcomes, physical and mental health, and key confounders/explanatory variables will be tested. Multivariable analyses will test for associations between ethnicity and key outcomes adjusted for the confounder/explanatory variables. We will model changes over time by ethnic group, facilitating understanding of absolute and relative risks in different ethnic groups, and generalisability of findings.Ethics and disseminationThe study is approved by Health Research Authority (reference 20/HRA/4718), and carries minimal risk. We aim to manage the small risk of participant distress about questions on sensitive topics by clearly participant information that the questionnaire covers sensitive topics and there is no obligation to answer these or any other questions, and by providing support organisation links. Results will be disseminated with reports to Government and papers submitted to pre-print servers and peer reviewed journals.Trial registration numberISRCTN11811602; Pre-results.

IntroductionCOVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide, causing significant morbidity and mortality. People from ethnic minorities, particularly those working in healthcare settings, have been disproportionately affected. Current evidence of the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in people working in healthcare settings is insufficient to inform plans to address health inequalities.Methods and analysisThis study combines anonymised human resource databases with professional registration and National Health Service data sets to assess associations between ethnicity and COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation and death in healthcare workers in the UK. Adverse COVID-19 outcomes will be assessed between 1 February 2020 (date following first confirmed COVID-19 case in UK) and study end date (31 January 2021), allowing 1-year of follow-up. Planned analyses include multivariable Poisson, logistic and flexible parametric time-to-event regression within each country, adjusting for core predictors, followed by meta-analysis of country-specific results to produce combined effect estimates for the UK. Mediation analysis methods will be explored to examine the direct, indirect and mediated interactive effects between ethnicity, occupational group and COVID-19 outcomes.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval for the UK-REACH programme has been obtained via the expedited HRA COVID-19 processes (REC ref: 20/HRA/4718, IRAS ID: 288316). Research information will be anonymised via the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank before release to researchers. Study results will be submitted for publication in an open access peer-reviewed journal and made available on our dedicated website (https://uk-reach.org/).Trial registration numberISRCTN11811602.

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality, and has devastated economies in many countries. Amongst the groups identified as being at increased risk from COVID-19 are healthcare workers (HCWs) and ethnic minority groups. Emerging evidence suggests HCWs from ethnic minority groups are at increased risk of adverse COVID-19-related physical and mental health outcomes. To date there has been no large-scale analysis of these risks in UK healthcare workers or ancillary workers in healthcare settings, stratified by ethnicity or occupation type, and adjusted for potential confounders. This paper reports the protocol for a prospective longitudinal questionnaire study of UK HCWs, as part of the UK-REACH programme (The United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers).Methods and analysisA baseline questionnaire with follow-up questionnaires at 4 and 8 months will be administered to a national cohort of UK healthcare workers and ancillary workers in healthcare settings, and those registered with UK healthcare regulators. With consent, data will be linked to health records, and participants followed up for 25 years.Univariate associations between ethnicity and primary outcome measures (clinical COVID-19 outcomes, and physical and mental health) and key confounders/explanatory variables will be tested, followed by multivariable analyses to test for associations between ethnicity and key outcomes adjusted for the confounder/explanatory variables, with interactions included as appropriate. Using follow-up data, multilevel models will be used to model changes over time by ethnic group, facilitating understanding of absolute and relative risks in different ethnic groups, and generalisability of findings.Ethics and disseminationThe study is approved by Health Research Authority (reference 20/HRA/4718), and carries minimal risk to participants. We aim to manage the small risk of participant distress due to being asked questions on sensitive topics by clearly indicating on the participant information sheet that the questionnaire covers sensitive topics and that participants are under no obligation to answer these, or indeed any other, questions, and by providing links to support organisations. Results will be disseminated with reports to Government and papers uploaded to pre-print servers and submitted to peer reviewed journals.Registration detailsTrial ID: ISRCTN11811602STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDYNational, UK-wide, study, aiming to capture variety of healthcare worker job roles including ancillary workers in healthcare settings.Longitudinal study including three waves of questionnaire data collection, and linkage to administrative data over 25 years, with consent.Unique support from all major UK healthcare worker regulators, relevant healthcare worker organisations, and a Professional Expert Panel to increase participant uptake and the validity of findings.Potential for self-selection bias and low response rates, and the use of electronic invitations and online data collection makes it harder to reach ancillary workers without regular access to work email addresses.

Study objective We determine whether the Clinical Frailty Scale applied at emergency department (ED) triage is associated with important service- and patient-related outcomes. Methods We undertook a single-center, retrospective cohort study examining hospital-related outcomes and their associations with frailty scores assessed at ED triage. Participants were aged 65 years or older, registered on their first ED presentation during the study period at a single, centralized ED in the United Kingdom. Baseline data included age, sex, Clinical Frailty Scale score, National Early Warning Score–2 and the Charlson Comorbidity Index score; outcomes included length of stay, readmissions (any future admissions), and mortality (inhospital or out of hospital) up to 2 years after ED presentation. Survival analysis methods (standard and competing risks) were applied to assess associations between ED triage frailty scores and outcomes. Unadjusted incidence curves and adjusted hazard ratios are presented. Results A total of 52,562 individuals representing 138,328 ED attendances were included; participants’ mean age was 78.0 years, and 55% were women. Initial admission rates generally increased with frailty. Mean length of stay after 30- or 180-day follow-up was relatively low; all Clinical Frailty Scale categories included patients who experienced zero days’ length of stay (ie, ambulatory care) and patients with relatively high numbers of inhospital days. Overall, 46% of study participants were readmitted by the 2-year follow-up. Readmissions increased with Clinical Frailty Scale score up until a score of 6 and then attenuated. Mortality rates increased with increasing frailty; the adjusted hazard ratio was 3.6 for Clinical Frailty Scale score 7 to 8 compared with score 1 to 3. Conclusion Frailty assessed at ED triage (with the Clinical Frailty Scale) is associated with adverse outcomes in older people. Its use in ED triage might aid immediate clinical decisionmaking and service configuration.

Background and objectives\ud The inflammation-driven increase in peritoneal solute transport rate that occurs during long-term peritoneal dialysis is associated with higher mortality, hospitalization, and encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis. Because biocompatible solutions were developed to mitigate these effects, we examined the association with their use and longitudinal peritoneal solute transport rate.\ud \ud Design, setting, participants, & measurements\ud We analyzed subjects from the multinational prospective Global Fluid Study with three or more peritoneal solute transport rate measurements >2 months from the start of peritoneal dialysis. Follow-up was for 7.5 years (median, 2.3 years; interquartile range, 1.8–3.6) in biocompatible solutions and 12.8 years (median, 3.2 years; interquartile range, 1.9–4.3) for standard solutions. Using a random intercept/slopes multilevel model, we examined the association of patients using biocompatible solutions and peritoneal solute transport rate over time, adjusting for center effects, dialysate dextrose concentration, baseline dialysate IL-6 concentration, icodextrin use, residual kidney function, and peritonitis.\ud \ud Results\ud Of 366 patients, the 71 receiving biocompatible solutions throughout their time on peritoneal dialysis had a mean adjusted dialysate-to-plasma creatinine ratio of 0.67 compared with 0.72 for standard solutions (P=0.02). With duration of treatment, there was a continuous increase in peritoneal solute transport rate in patients using standard solutions (range, 2 months to 4 years). In contrast, patients using biocompatible solutions had peritoneal solute transport rates that plateaued after 2 years of therapy. These changes in peritoneal solute transport rate were independent of baseline inflammation and time-varying predictors of faster peritoneal solute transport rate. In patients suffering episodes of peritonitis while using standard solutions, there was an associated increase in peritoneal solute transport rate of 0.020 (95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.03) per episode, whereas in patients using biocompatible solutions, there was no change in this parameter (−0.014; 95% confidence interval, −0.03 to

Objectives This study sought to investigate in the general heart failure (HF) population, whether the associations between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and risk of hospitalization and death, are modified by changing glycemic or drug treatment intensity. Background In the general HF population, T2D confers a higher risk of poor outcomes, but whether this risk is modified by the diabetes status is unknown. Methods A nested case-control study in an incident HF database cohort (2002 to 2014) compared patients with T2D with those without for risk of all-cause first hospitalization and death. T2D was stratified by categories of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA 1c ) or drug treatments measured 6 months before hospitalization and 1 year before death and compared with the HF group without T2D. Results In HF, T2D was associated with risk of first hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24 to 1.34) and mortality (aOR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.40). Stratification of T2D by HbA 1c levels, compared with the reference HF group without T2D, showed U-shaped associations with both outcomes. Highest risk categories were HbA 1c >9.5% (hospitalization, aOR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.02; mortality, aOR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.47) and 1c of >1% decrease was associated with hospitalization (aOR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.49) and mortality (aOR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.48). T2D drug group associations with hospitalization were no medication (aOR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.19), oral antihyperglycemic only (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.41), oral antihyperglycemic+insulin (aOR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.52), and insulin only (aOR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.43 to 1.81); and with mortality for the same drug groups were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.39), 1.16 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.22), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.34), and 1.43 (95% CI: 1.31 to 1.57), respectively. The T2D group with reduced drug treatments were associated with hospitalization (aOR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.68 to 2.69) and mortality (aOR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.81 to 2.41). Conclusions In the general HF population, T2D stratified by glycemic control and drug treatments showed differential risk associations. Routine measures of dynamic diabetes status provide important prognostic indication of poor outcomes in HF.

Background Healthcare policies target unplanned hospital admissions and 30-day re-admission as key measures of efficiency, but do not focus on factors that influence trajectories of different types of admissions in the same patient over time. Objectives To investigate the influence of consumer segmentation and patient factors on the time intervals between different types of hospital admission. Research design, subjects and measures A cohort design was applied to an anonymised linkage database for adults aged 40 years and over (N = 58 857). Measures included Mosaic segmentation, multimorbidity defined on six chronic condition registers and hospital admissions over a 27-month time period. Results The shortest mean time intervals between two consecutive planned admissions were: 90 years and over (160 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 146-175)), Mosaic groups 'Twilight subsistence' (171 days (164-179)) or 'Welfare borderline' and 'Municipal dependency' (177 days (172-182)) compared to the reference Mosaic groups (186 days (180-193)), and multimorbidity count of four or more (137 days (130-145)). Mosaic group 'Twilight subsistence' (rate ratio (RR) 1.22 (95% CI: 1.08-1.36)) or 'Welfare borderline' and 'Municipal dependency' RR 1.20 (1.10-1.31) were significantly associated with higher rate to an unplanned admission following a planned event. However, associations between patient factors and unplanned admissions were diminished by adjustment for planned admissions. Conclusion Specific consumer segmentation and patient factors were associated with shorter time intervals between different types of admissions. The findings support innovation in public health approaches to prevent by a focus on long-term trajectories of hospital admissions, which include planned activity.

Sub-optimal adoption of evidence based practice by primary health care professionals (PHCPs) is affecting the health of people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This paper shows how 'patient stories' were used to engineer professional and organisational change.'Stories' were transmitted via a pre-planned question and answer session involving patients and carers. The impact on PHCPs' attitudes and behaviour was explored through observing the session, open-text questionnaires completed by the PHCPs at the end of the session and clinician interviews.The stories about living with COPD, told by patients and their carers, were found to be an innovative and powerful way to impact PHCPs' attitude and behaviour. Strong motivational context was created, in which clinicians were able to see the relevance of learning through active engagement with real people.Long term conditions such as COPD have long term implications for the daily lives of patients and their carers. Hearing about these consequences in 'the first person' is an influential training tool with a powerful impact on PHCPs' attitudes and behaviour.

BackgroundRisk of encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis (EPS) is strongly associated with the duration of peritoneal dialysis (PD), such that patients who have been on PD for some time may consider elective transfer to haemodialysis to mitigate the risk of EPS. There is a need to determine this risk to better inform clinical decision making, but previous studies have not allowed for the competing risk of death.MethodsThis study included new adult PD patients in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ; 1990–2010) or Scotland (2000–08) followed until 2012. Age, time on PD, primary renal disease, gender, data set and diabetic status were evaluated as predictors at the start of PD, then at 3 and 5 years after starting PD using flexible parametric competing risks models.ResultsIn 17 396 patients (16 162 ANZ, 1234 Scotland), EPS was observed in 99 (0.57%) patients, less frequently in ANZ patients (n = 65; 0.4%) than in Scottish patients (n = 34; 2.8%). The estimated risk of EPS was much lower when the competing risk of death was taken into account (1 Kaplan–Meier = 0.0126, cumulative incidence function = 0.0054). Strong predictors of EPS included age, primary renal disease and time on PD. The risk of EPS was reasonably discriminated at the start of PD (C-statistic = 0.74–0.79) and this improved at 3 and 5 years after starting PD (C-statistic = 0.81–0.92).ConclusionsEPS risk estimates are lower when calculated using competing risk of death analyses. A patient’s estimated risk of EPS is country-specific and can be predicted using age, primary renal disease and duration of PD.

Introduction\ud Various prognostic models have been developed for acute stroke, including one based on age and five binary variables (‘six simple variables’ model; SSVMod) and one based on age plus scores on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSSMod). The aims of this study were to externally validate and recalibrate these models, and to compare their predictive ability in relation to both survival and independence.\ud \ud Methods\ud Data from a large clinical trial of oxygen therapy (n = 8003) were used to determine the discrimination and calibration of the models, using C-statistics, calibration plots, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Methods of recalibration in the large and logistic recalibration were used to update the models.\ud \ud Results\ud For discrimination, both models functioned better for survival (C-statistics between .802 and .837) than for independence (C-statistics between .725 and .735). Both models showed slight shortcomings with regard to calibration, over-predicting survival and under-predicting independence; the NIHSSMod performed slightly better than the SSVMod. For the most part, there were only minor differences between ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes. Logistic recalibration successfully updated the models for a clinical trial population.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Both prognostic models performed well overall in a clinical trial population. The choice between them is probably better based on clinical and practical considerations than on statistical considerations.