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Introduction Experts recommend integrating smoking-cessation treatments within U.S. mental health settings, but the population health benefits of doing so have not been estimated. This study simulates the impact of widespread cessation treatment for patients with depression under best-case treatment and maximum potential cessation scenarios. Methods Cessation interventions were simulated for U.S. adult smokers seeing a health professional for depression from 2020 to 2100. Interventions included (1) Any Treatment (behavioral counseling, pharmacological, combination) and (2) Pharmacological Treatment (including counseling), combined with increased mental health service utilization each. These were compared with a maximum potential cessation scenario where all patients with major depression quit smoking. Analyses were conducted in 2016–2020. Results Widespread uptake of Any Treatment among patients with depression would avert 32,000 deaths and result in 138,000 life-years gained by 2100; Any Treatment combined with 100% mental health service utilization would result in 53,000 and 231,000, respectively. Pharmacological Treatment would avert 125,000 deaths, with 540,000 life-years gained. Pharmacological Treatment combined with 100% mental health service utilization would result in 203,000 deaths averted and 887,000 life-years gained. Health gains under best-case treatment scenarios represent modest fractions of those projected under maximum potential cessation scenarios at current mental health service utilization levels (835,000 deaths averted, 3.73 million life-years gained) and at 100% utilization (1.11 million deaths averted, 5.07 million life years gained). Conclusions Providing smoking-cessation treatment to patients with depression and increasing mental health service utilization would reduce the toll of tobacco on this population. These gains would be considerably larger if cessation treatments were more effective.

BackgroundAccording to the 2014 Surgeon General’s Report (SGR), ‘5.6 million (American) youth currently aged 0–17 years of age will die prematurely of a smoking-related illness.’ Advocates cite this number as evidence that smoking will exact an enormous toll for decades to come. This paper examines whether the projected toll accurately portrays smoking’s likely future burden.MethodsThe SGR estimate, using 2012 state-specific data, can be closely approximated using national data by multiplying the population ages 0–17 by 2012 smoking prevalence among adults ages 18–30, and multiplying that by 32%, the 1996 estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the probability of future smoking-attributable mortality among young adult smokers. Repeating this process using 2018 data estimates the number of future deaths of youth ages 0–17 in 2018. A hypothetical estimate for 2024 assumes continuation of the 2012–2018 smoking prevalence decrease.FindingsBased on 2012 data, the estimated number of youth alive in 2012 who will die prematurely from smoking is 5.31 million. With lower young adult smoking prevalence in 2018, the future smoking-related mortality estimate is 3.66 million. For 2024, the estimate is 2.54 million.ConclusionsThe SGR estimate depended on assumptions that no longer held a few years later. Yet advocates for youth smoking prevention cite it frequently today. Considerations such as this paper’s calculations, decreasing smoking initiation rates, increasing cessation, better screening for and treatment of smoking-related diseases, and smoking’s increasing social unacceptability suggest that smoking’s death toll for today’s youth will be far lower than contemporary estimates. How much lower is virtually impossible to estimate.

IntroductionThe US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health.Aims and MethodsWe conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18–24 menthol, age 35–54 menthol, and age 35–54 nonmenthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12–24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use.ResultsEleven experts provided responses. Of those ages 12–24 who would have initiated menthol cigarette use in the absence of a ban, the experts estimated that 41% would still initiate combustible products under a ban, while 18% would initiate with NNDPs and 39% would not initiate regular tobacco use. Combustible use by menthol smokers ages 35–54 was expected to decline by 20% postban relative to preban rates, half switching to NNDPs and half quitting all tobacco use. Menthol smokers ages 18–24 were expected to reduce combustible use by 30%, with 16% switching to NNDPs. Greater reductions in combustible use were estimated for African Americans across the three age groups. Negligible impacts were expected for current adult nonmenthol smokers.ConclusionsAccording to expert opinion, a menthol ban is expected to substantially reduce smoking initiation and combustible tobacco product use among current menthol smokers.ImplicationsThe US Food and Drug Administration recently announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes, but information on the potential impact on smoking and other nicotine product use is limited. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. A panel of experts estimated that menthol smokers ages 35–54 would reduce combustible tobacco use by 20%, with half switching to e-cigarettes and half quitting all nicotine use. Larger reductions were expected at younger ages, and menthol smoking initiation was reduced by 59% with 18% instead using e-cigarettes. African Americans were expected to have greater reductions in combustible tobacco use than the rest of the population.

IntroductionThe US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs).MethodsAfter calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.ResultsAs a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.Conclusions and relevanceOur findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Reliance on 30-day prevalence as the principal means of assessing trends in youth cigarette smoking may understate the magnitude of the decrease in youth smoking, because prevalence does not account for smoking frequency or intensity. We analyzed Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) data from 1997 through 2017 and estimated cigarette smoking prevalence (any smoking in the previous 30 days), frequency (number of smoking days in the previous 30 days), and intensity (cigarettes per day on smoking days). We calculated average cigarettes smoked per day (ACSD) as the product of frequency and intensity, divided by 30. We estimated ACSD among all high school students and by smoking frequency group (i.e., 1&ndash, 5, 6&ndash, 9, 10&ndash, 19, 20&ndash, 29, or 30 of the previous 30 days), sex, grade level, and race/ethnicity. Among US high school students, ACSD declined by 86.7% from 1997 to 2017, while prevalence declined by 75.8%. Within smoking frequency groups, smoking intensity remained similar over the two decades. However, changes in ACSD over time varied by race/ethnicity, ACSD increased among Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black daily smokers while it decreased among daily smokers of other race/ethnicity groups. ACSD declined more substantially than smoking prevalence over two decades but remained virtually unchanged within smoking frequency groups, indicating that changes in frequency, rather than intensity, drove this decline. Prevalence estimates alone understate the degree to which youth in the United States have rejected smoking, and racial/ethnic disparities in smoking intensity are hidden when we limit our lens to prevalence-only measures.

Tobacco-related health disparities disproportionately affect smokers with major depression (MD). Although tobacco simulation models have been applied to general populations, to date they have not considered populations with a comorbid mental health condition. We developed and calibrated a simulation model of smoking and MD comorbidity for the US adult population using the 2005–2018 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. We use this model to evaluate trends in smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable mortality and life-years lost among adults with MD, and changes in smoking prevalence by mental health status from 2018 to 2060. The model integrates known interaction effects between smoking initiation and cessation, and MD onset and recurrence. We show that from 2018 to 2060, smoking prevalence will continue declining among those with current MD. In the absence of intervention, people with MD will be increasingly disproportionately affected by smoking compared to the general population; our model shows that the smoking prevalence ratio between those with current MD and those without a history of MD increases from 1.54 to 2.42 for men and from 1.81 to 2.73 for women during this time period. From 2018 to 2060, approximately 484,000 smoking-attributable deaths will occur among adults with current MD, leading to 11.3 million life-years lost. Ambitious tobacco control efforts could alter this trajectory. With aggressive public health efforts, up to 264,000 of those premature deaths could be avoided, translating into 7.5 million life years gained. This model can compare the relative health gains across different intervention strategies for smokers with MD.

American students' 30-day smoking prevalence has decreased dramatically over the past two decades. The frequency of smoking within the 30-day measure has shifted from heavy smoking (>1/2 pack/day) toward light smoking (, Highlights • The decline in smoking prevalence understates the decrease in U.S. youth smoking. • This study develops a smoking index that weights smoking intensity by frequency. • The index estimates average cigarette consumption per student per day (ACSD). • ACSD has decreased more rapidly over time than has 30-day prevalence. • ACSD complements 30-day prevalence as a measure of youth smoking.

BackgroundThe 2018 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Report found substantial evidence that electronic cigarette use (vaping) by youth is strongly associated with an increased risk of ever using cigarettes (smoking) and moderately associated with progressing to more established smoking. However, the Report also noted that recent increases in vaping have been associated with declining rates of youth smoking. This paper examines the temporal relationship between vaping and youth smoking using multiple data sets to explore the question of whether vaping promotes smoking initiation in the USA.MethodsUsing publicly available, nationally representative data on smoking and vaping among youth and young adults, we conducted a trend line analysis of deviations from long-term trends in smoking starting from when vaping became more prevalent.ResultsThere was a substantial increase in youth vaping prevalence beginning in about 2014. Time trend analyses showed that the decline in past 30-day smoking prevalence accelerated by two to four times after 2014. Indicators of more established smoking rates, including the proportion of daily smokers among past 30-day smokers, also decreased more rapidly as vaping became more prevalent.ConclusionsThe inverse relationship between vaping and smoking was robust across different data sets for both youth and young adults and for current and more established smoking. While trying electronic cigarettes may causally increase smoking among some youth, the aggregate effect at the population level appears to be negligible given the reduction in smoking initiation during the period of vaping’s ascendance.

There is concern that youth e-cigarette use may serve as a gateway to cigarette smoking, and that nicotine exposure may harm brain development. It is therefore important to know how much nonsmoking youth perceive being exposed to nicotine through e-cigarettes.Data on smoking and vaping from the 2016 Monitoring the Future survey of eighth, tenth, and 12th grade students were analyzed in 2017. The weighted percentage distributions of self-reported e-cigarette mist last inhaled were calculated according to ever-smoking status and past 30-day smoking frequency. Chi-square tests of the association between smoking status and use of e-cigarettes perceived to contain nicotine, marijuana or hash oil, or just flavoring were performed. Never smokers and regular smokers were compared regarding the type of e-cigarette mist they believe they last used.A significant relationship exists between smoking behavior and reportedly vaping nicotine (p0.01) or just flavors (p0.01). With increasing smoking intensity, an increasing proportion of students report they are vaping nicotine; a decreasing proportion report just flavors. Among 12th graders, prevalence of vaping nicotine is lowest among never smokers and non-current smokers (14.3% and 18.1%) and highest among current and frequent smokers (61.3% and 60.9%, p0.01). Substantially larger proportions of never smokers and 30-day nonsmokers report vaping just flavors (76.0% and 69.6%) compared with regular or frequent smokers (31.0% and 29.3%, p0.01).Most nonsmoking students perceive limited nicotine exposure from vaping. Future research should evaluate the accuracy of self-reported e-cigarette nicotine content and monitor students who are consciously using nicotine-based e-cigarettes.

Introduction The public health community is divided regarding electronic cigarettes. Skeptics emphasize potential vaping-induced increases in smoking among children and possible health hazards for adults. Enthusiasts consider e-cigarettes much less dangerous than smoking and believe they increase adult smoking cessation. We compare potential health benefits and costs to put these two perspectives in context. Methods Using a dynamic model that tracks the US adult population's smoking status and smoking-related deaths over time, we simulate the effects of vaping-induced smoking initiation and cessation on life-years saved or lost to the year 2070. The base case assumes that vaping annually increases smoking initiation by 2% and smoking cessation by 10%. Sensitivity analyses raise the initiation rate increase to 6% while decreasing the cessation rate increase to 5%. Sensitivity analyses also test vaping's reducing the health benefits of quitting smoking by 10%. Results With base-case assumptions, the population gains almost 3.3 million life-years by 2070. If all people who quit smoking by vaping lose 10% of the benefit of quitting smoking, the net life-year gain falls to 2.4 million. Under worst-case assumptions, in which vaping increases smoking initiation by 6% and cessation by 5%, and vaping-induced quitters lose 10% of the health benefits, the population gains over 580000 life-years. Conclusion Potential life-years gained as a result of vaping-induced smoking cessation are projected to exceed potential life-years lost due to vaping-induced smoking initiation. These results hold over a wide range of plausible parameters. Implications Our analysis strongly suggests that the upside health benefit associated with e-cigarettes, in terms of their potential to increase adult smoking cessation, exceeds their downside risk to health as a result of their possibly increasing the number of youthful smoking initiators. Public messaging and policy should continue to strive to reduce young people's exposure to all nicotine and tobacco products. But, they should not do so at the expense of limiting such products' potential to help adult smokers to quit.

Key Points Question How has exposure to nicotine products and their associated risk among US adolescents changed owing to the popularity of e-cigarettes? Findings This cross-sectional study, which included 16 years of survey data for between 15 000 and 36 000 students in grades 6 through 12 per year, found that exposure to nicotine products, as assessed by nicotine product days, decreased prior to the popularity of e-cigarettes. This decrease slowed and then reversed owing to the upsurge of vaping; however, adjusting for differential long-term risks of nicotine products, risk-adjusted nicotine product days may have decreased if the risk associated with vaping is sufficiently low compared with that of smoking. Meaning This study suggests that whether the health risks associated with nicotine product use among US adolescents have increased owing to the popularity of e-cigarettes depends on one’s assessment of the risks associated with vaping., Importance With increasing e-cigarette use among US adolescents and decreasing use of other tobacco products, it is unclear how total use of nicotine products, and its long-term health risks, have changed. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s standard measure—any tobacco product use in the past 30 days—considers neither frequency of use nor product risk implications. Objective To investigate how nicotine product use, including frequency of use, and its associated risks have changed among middle school and high school students since 1999. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used data from the 1999-2020 National Youth Tobacco Survey, an in-school survey of a nationally representative sample of students in grades 6 through 12; each survey recruited between 15 000 and 36 000 participants. Exposures Nicotine product use in the past 30 days. Main Outcomes and Measures Use of nicotine products assessed by nicotine product days (NPDs), the number of days that the average student consumed these products in the past 30 days. Risk-adjusted NPDs account for differential long-term health risks of various products. Results This study included 16 years of cross-sectional survey data. Each survey recruited between 15 000 and 36 000 participants in grades 6 through 12 (male students: mean, 50.4% [minimum, 48.5%; maximum, 58.4%]; mean age, 14.5 years [minimum, 14.0 years; maximum, 14.7 years]). Nationally representative cross-sectional data for high school students showed that NPDs decreased steadily from 5.6 days per month in 1999 (95% CI, 5.0-6.2 days per month) to 2.2 days per month in 2017 (95% CI, 1.9-2.6 days per month), increased to 4.6 days per month in 2019 (95% CI, 4.1-5.1 days per month), and then decreased to 3.6 days per month in 2020 (95% CI, 3.0-4.1 days per month). For a risk weight of 0.1 for e-cigarettes, compared with combustible products, risk-adjusted NPDs decreased from 2.5 days per month in 2013 (95% CI, 2.2-2.9 days per month) (prior to the popularity of e-cigarettes) to 2.0 days per month in 2019 (95% CI, 1.6-2.5 days per month) and 1.4 days per month in 2020 (95% CI, 1.0-1.8 days per month). However, with a risk weight of 1.0 for e-cigarettes (identical to that of combustible products), risk-adjusted NPDs increased to 5.3 days per month in 2019 (95% CI, 4.4-6.2 days per month) and 3.9 days per month in 2020 (95% CI, 3.1-4.7 days per month). Similar trends were found for middle school students. Conclusions and Relevance This study suggests that NPDs represent an improvement, albeit an imperfect one, compared with any 30-day tobacco product use by incorporating the frequency of use of various products. By distinguishing products, NPDs permit consideration of the health consequences associated with different mixes of products over time. Health risks of adolescent nicotine product use could have decreased during vaping’s popularity if assessment of the long-term risks associated with vaping compared with those of smoking is low. There is a need to closely monitor youth nicotine and tobacco product use patterns., This cross-sectional study uses data from the National Youth Tobacco Survey to investigate how nicotine product use and its associated risks have changed among middle school and high school students since 1999.

Introduction People with serious mental illness experience substantially reduced life expectancy, likely due in part to their higher smoking rates relative to the general population. However, the extent to which smoking affects their life expectancy, independent of mental illness, is unknown. This study quantifies the potential contribution of smoking to reduced life expectancy among individuals with serious psychological distress (SPD), a measure that screens for serious mental illness in national surveys. Methods A cohort of 328,110 U.S. adults was examined using the 1997–2009 National Health Interview Surveys linked to the 2011 National Death Index. Cox models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for current smoking, former smoking, and SPD and construct life tables by smoking and SPD status. The smoking-attributable fraction of deaths by SPD status was calculated. Analyses were conducted in 2015. Results Among those with SPD, being a current smoker doubles the risk of death. Current smokers with SPD lose 14.9 years of life relative to never smokers without SPD. Among never smokers, having SPD reduces life expectancy by 5.3 years. Thus, smoking may account for up to two thirds of the difference in life expectancy between smokers with SPD and never smokers without SPD. One third of deaths among those with SPD can be attributed to smoking. Conclusions The life expectancy difference between current smokers with SPD and never smokers without SPD is primarily due to smoking. Aiding individuals with serious mental illness to avoid smoking will translate into sizeable gains in life expectancy.

In countries around the world, tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are significant contributors to the global epidemic of noncommunicable diseases. As a consequence, they contribute, as well, to excess health care costs and productivity losses. A large and growing body of research documents that taxes specific to such products, known as excise taxes, reduce consumption of these products and thereby diminish their adverse health consequences. Although such taxation has historically been motivated primarily by revenue generation, governments are increasingly using these taxes to discourage unhealthy consumption. We review the global evidence on the impact of taxes and prices on the consumption of these products and the health and social consequences. We then evaluate arguments commonly raised against these taxes, identify best practices in excise tax policy, and conclude with a summary of the current status of tobacco, alcohol, and SSB excise taxes globally.

Through a combination of governmental and private sector interventions, with an emphasis on policies, tobacco control has dramatically reduced smoking and its burden of preventable premature disease and death. Since publication of the first Surgeon General’s report in 1964, the prevalence of cigarette smoking in the USA has dropped by nearly two-thirds and tobacco control has been credited with averting eight million premature deaths. Extensive research has established which interventions have been effective and which not. For example, cigarette taxation and smoke-free workplace laws both have reduced smoking significantly, while warning labels and school health education have contributed relatively less to population-level impact. The documented impacts of tobacco control interventions offer insights into interventions that might be adopted to combat other forms of substance abuse. For example, based on the evidence that cigarette taxation has reduced initiation of smoking by youth and increased adult cessation, proponents of obesity control are advocating taxation of snack foods and sugary beverages; several jurisdictions have adopted such taxes. Lessons can go in both directions, however. Tobacco control has much to learn from experiences with harm reduction regarding other forms of substance abuse, including, as a notable example, treatment of heroin addiction with methadone. This is relevant to the current divisive debate about the use of electronic cigarettes as a substitute for smoking.

Few studies have examined the effects of smoking on nursing home utilization, generally using poor data on smoking status. No previous study has distinguished utilization for recent from long-term quitters.Using the Health and Retirement Study, we assessed nursing home utilization by never-smokers, long-term quitters (quit3 years), recent quitters (quit ≤3 years), and current smokers. We used logistic regression to evaluate the likelihood of a nursing home admission. For those with an admission, we used negative binomial regression on the number of nursing home nights. Finally, we employed zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate nights for the full sample.Controlling for other variables, compared with never-smokers, long-term quitters have an odds ratio (OR) for nursing home admission of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07-1.2), current smokers 1.39 (1.23-1.57), and recent quitters 1.55 (1.29-1.87). The probability of admission rises rapidly with age and is lower for African Americans and Hispanics, more affluent respondents, respondents with a spouse present in the home, and respondents with a living child. Given admission, smoking status is not associated with length of stay (LOS). LOS is longer for older respondents and women and shorter for more affluent respondents and those with spouses present.Compared with otherwise identical never-smokers, former and current smokers have a significantly increased risk of nursing home admission. That recent quitters are at greatest risk of admission is consistent with evidence that many stop smoking because they are sick, often due to smoking.

According to survey data, the prevalence of Americans' self-reported cigarette smoking is dropping steadily. However, the accuracy of national surveys has been questioned because of declining response rates and the increasing stigmatization of smoking. We used data from 2 repeated, cross-sectional, nationally representative health surveys (National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 1979-2014; and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 1965-2015) to determine whether self-reported cigarette consumption has changed over time as a proportion of federally taxed cigarette sales. From each survey, we calculated national equivalents of annual cigarette consumption. From 1979 to 1997, the amount of cigarettes that NSDUH and NHIS respondents reported corresponded to an average of 59.5% (standard deviation (SD), 2.3%) and 65.6% (SD, 3.2%), respectively, of taxed cigarette sales. After 1997, respondents' reported smoking data corresponded to the equivalent of an average of 64.2% (SD, 5.9%) and 63.3% (SD, 2.5%), respectively, of taxed cigarette sales. NHIS figures remained steady throughout the latter period, with a decline during 2013-2015 from 65.9% to 61.1%. NSDUH figures increased steadily, exceeding those of the NHIS after 2002. Given the consistent underreporting of cigarette consumption over time, these surveys are likely not less accurate than they were previously. The recent decrease in NHIS accuracy, however, gives pause about the magnitude of the reported decline in smoking prevalence in 2014 and 2015. Improvement in the accuracy of NSDUH data is encouraging.

Introduction We examine the trajectory of adult smoking prevalence in the United States over the period 1990-2014 to investigate whether the smoking cessation rate has changed during this period. Methods We employ a dynamic model of smoking prevalence, and data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), to estimate the adult cessation rate in 6-year intervals. We use weighted nonlinear least squares to perform the estimation. We then employ a meta-regression model to test whether the cessation rate has increased. Results The annual cessation rate has increased from 2.4% in 1990 to 4.5% in 2014 according to the NHIS data, and from 3.2% in 2002 to 4.2% in 2014 according to the NSDUH data. The increasing trend is statistically significant (p value = 1.57×10-6) and the two independent surveys produced nearly identical results, which makes it unlikely that our findings are a product of chance. Conclusions Our analysis finds that the smoking cessation rate in the United States has almost doubled since 1990. This increase is responsible for at least 2 million fewer smokers in 2014. If current conditions persist, by the year 2020 the increase in cessation rates will be responsible for 3.5 million fewer smokers. Our findings can assist in predicting the future path of the smoking epidemic and determining the correct allocation of resources to eradicate it. Implications We show that the adult smoking cessation rate has greatly increased since 1990. We demonstrate this by studying prevalence trajectories from two independent population surveys, which yielded nearly identical results. Different from other studies, we focus on permanent quit rates (net of relapses) which we estimate from a dynamic model of prevalence. Our results do not stem from self-reported quitting behavior, but from the analysis of observed prevalence and its inherent variability. Our findings can contribute to predicting the future path of the smoking epidemic and to determining the optimal allocation of resources to eradicate it.

Background The authors develop projections for global smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030 with and without the implementation, starting in 2010, of the WHO’s recommended multipronged approach to tobacco control known as the MPOWER policy package. Methods Using data from the WHO’s Global InfoBase Database and the WHO’s Global Adult Tobacco Survey, the authors construct adult cigarette smoking prevalence time series for 60 countries that account for 90% of the world’s smokers and 85% of the world’s population. The authors then use a stock/flow model to project those countries’ smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030, with and without the implementation of MPOWER. The authors aggregate the results and report regional and global figures. Results The authors estimate global adult cigarette smoking prevalence in 2010 to be 23.7%. If no additional policies are set in place and the initiation and cessation rates existing in 2010 persist, the authors estimate that global prevalence will be 22.7% by 2020 and 22.0% by 2030 (872 million smokers). If MPOWER had been implemented globally starting in 2010 with a 100% price increase for cigarettes, the authors estimate that global cigarette smoking prevalence would be 15.4% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2030 (523 million smokers). Conclusions The estimates indicate the magnitude and trajectory of the global tobacco pandemic and of the impact the authors could expect if evidence-based tobacco control policies were applied immediately and universally throughout the world. As half of lifetime smokers die of tobacco-related diseases, if MPOWER were applied globally, within a few decades, many millions of premature tobacco-related deaths would be avoided.

Objective To examine decreases over time in cigarette smoking prevalence and intensity among American students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades. Methods Data from Monitoring the Future on students' smoking, across four measures of differing intensity of smoking, are compared over time and across grade levels. Data are available since 1975 for 12th graders and since 1991 for 8th and 10th graders. Results For all three grade levels, all four measures decreased substantially. The decreases became larger as the measures moved from least to most intensive (respectively, lifetime (ever) smoking and ≥ 1/2 pack of cigarettes per day). Decreases exceeded three-quarters for every grade for the two most intensive measures of smoking: daily smoking and ≥ 1/2 pack per day. For every measure, 8th graders' percentage decreases were the largest and 12th graders' the smallest. 12th graders' absolute (percentage-point) decreases were the largest for every measure. Conclusion Cigarette smoking, the most dangerous form of tobacco use, has decreased dramatically among American students. The fact that decreases are larger for more intensive measures of smoking indicates that simply tracking 30-day prevalence, often labeled “current smoking,” significantly understates the decrease in youth smoking over time., Highlights • I assess changes in youth smoking over several decades. • For 4 measures of smoking in grades 8, 10, and 12, smoking declined 55–88%. • Smoking declined most for the most intensive measure: > half pack of cigarettes/day. • It declined least for the least intensive measure: lifetime (ever) smoking. • Decreases in 30-day prevalence do not adequately reflect the extent of the decline.

Objectives. We sought to outline an optimistic yet achievable goal for future US smoking prevalence rates based on empirical evidence reflecting the success of smoking control efforts in California. Methods. Using a dynamic model and the smoking initiation and cessation rates achieved in California as a guide, we projected US adult smoking prevalence rates through the year 2020. Results. If smoking initiation and cessation rates for the nation do not change, population dynamics will result in smoking prevalence rates falling to 19.1% in 2010 and 16.8% in 2020. If the country attains California’s initiation and cessation rates by 2010, adult smoking prevalence rates will be 18.5% in 2010 and 14.7% as of 2020. Conclusions. If California’s smoking initiation and cessation rates are attained nationwide, the US smoking prevalence rate could be 5.9 percentage points lower than the 2005 rate by the year 2020, and there would be 10.2 million fewer smokers than in 2005. A target of 14% smoking prevalence by 2020 is aggressive yet feasible, given that it takes into account the constraints imposed by population demographics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Maternal smoking increases the risk for preterm birth, low birth weight, and sudden infant death syndrome, which are all causes of infant mortality. Our objective was to evaluate if changes in cigarette taxes and prices over time in the United States were associated with a decrease in infant mortality. METHODS: We compiled data for all states from 1999 to 2010. Time-series models were constructed by infant race for cigarette tax and price with infant mortality as the outcome, controlling for state per-capita income, educational attainment, time trend, and state random effects. RESULTS: From 1999 through 2010, the mean overall state infant mortality rate in the United States decreased from 7.3 to 6.2 per 1000 live births, with decreases of 6.0 to 5.3 for non-Hispanic white and 14.3 to 11.3 for non-Hispanic African American infants (P < .001). Mean inflation-adjusted state and federal cigarette taxes increased from $0.84 to $2.37 per pack (P < .001). In multivariable regression models, we found that every $1 increase per pack in cigarette tax was associated with a change in infant deaths of −0.19 (95% confidence interval −0.33 to −0.05) per 1000 live births overall, including changes of −0.21 (−0.33 to −0.08) for non-Hispanic white infants and −0.46 (−0.90 to −0.01) for non-Hispanic African American infants. Models for cigarette price yielded similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in cigarette taxes and prices are associated with decreases in infant mortality rates, with stronger impact for African American infants. Federal and state policymakers may consider increases in cigarette taxes as a primary prevention strategy for infant mortality.

In the face of a rapidly evolving nicotine-product marketplace, policymakers could consider differentially taxing these products to maximize incentives for tobacco users to switch from the most harmful products to the least harmful ones.

The establishment of a university-based network of colleagues with a shared goal of increasing tobacco research and educational opportunities can enrich the learning environment and ultimately contribute to reducing the toll of smoking. Such a network was established at the University of Michigan, and similar approaches can be adopted at other universities, considering a range of funding levels. This article discusses the mission, structure, accomplishments, and future goals of the network, along with lessons learned and recommendations for successful initialization. Specific examples of network activities are provided, along with references to web sites and lectures. This case study will be useful to any university leader seeking to establish a network of tobacco and nicotine researchers on campus.

Objective To predict the impact on tobacco use in the US of a “harm reduction” policy that requires that the smokeless tobacco product meet low nitrosamine standards, but could be marketed with a warning label consistent with the evidence of relative health risks. Methods Low nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (LN-SLT) and cigarette use are predicted by a panel of experts using a modified Delphi approach. We specify a thought experiment to isolate the changes that would occur after the new LN-SLT policy was implemented. Results The panel predicted that the new policy would accelerate a decrease in smoking prevalence from 1.3 to 3.1 percentage points over 5 years compared to the current SLT product policy, with greater effects on males than females. Introduction of the new product was also predicted to result in modest additional use of SLT overall, with the greatest increases among males who initiated tobacco use under the new policy. Conclusion An overall consensus was reached that the introduction of a new LN-SLT product under strict regulations would increase SLT use, but reduce overall smoking prevalence. This reduction would likely yield substantial health benefits, but uncertainties surround the role of marketing and other tobacco control policies.

INTRODUCTION U.S. smoking prevalence has been declining over the last several decades. During this time, the population has also experienced changes in its demographic composition, as Americans are living longer and becoming increasingly racially and ethnically diverse. Since smoking rates vary across age and race/ethnicity groups, demographics alone could contribute to changes in smoking prevalence among the general population. We examined the effect of changing age and race/ethnicity distributions on total smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010. METHODS Using the National Health Interview Survey weighting scheme, we applied the distribution of smokers across age and race/ethnicity categories for the years 1980 and 2010 to the distribution of adults in those categories for both years. The total number of smokers was summed to determine resulting smoking prevalence. RESULTS The combined effect of aging and the changing racial/ethnic composition of the U.S. population has contributed 2.1% points to the decline in smoking prevalence. If the age and racial/ethnic demographic composition had not changed since 1980, smoking prevalence would have been 21.3% in 2010 (with rounding)--statistically significantly higher than the reported 19.3%. Of the 3 demographic factors we considered (age, race, and ethnicity), ethnicity--specifically the rising share of Hispanics in the population--is the most important contributor to declines in smoking. CONCLUSIONS Our changing demographics have had an impact on smoking prevalence over the last 3 decades. Future declines in smoking may be driven even more by the aging of the population and increasing racial and ethnic diversity.

Summary: There are three basic means of avoiding smoking-related diseases: never starting to smoke, quitting, and avoiding smoke-filled environments. Recently, a fourth possibility has emerged: use of new, ostensibly less toxic products by smokers who cannot or will not quit, including “reduced toxin” cigarettes and novel smokeless tobacco products. To their purveyors, these new “tobacco harm reduction” (THR) products represent an opportunity for inveterate smokers to reduce their risk of lung cancer and other diseases. To health professionals, the new products pose a myriad of risks. This new generation of THR products is not the first to promise reduced risk, however. Both filtered cigarettes and low tar and nicotine cigarettes were marketed with explicit health themes, ultimately with disastrous results for public health. THR products enter the market subject to no product regulation whatsoever; thus, the opportunity for objective, independent scientific evaluation of their risks and benefits, and for regulation of advertising or sale as a result, is absent. This paper describes the new generation of THR products, discusses potential benefits and risks, examines lessons from the experience with filtered and low tar and nicotine cigarettes, and describes the principal challenges that confront the medical profession, government, and the public in determining what to do with this perplexing array of novel products.

Smoking prevalence is shifting from more- to less-developed countries. In higher-income countries, smoking surveillance data, tailored treatments, public health campaigns, and research-based policy implementation have led to a decrease in tobacco use. In low- and middle-income countries, translating research into practice and policy is integral for tobacco control. We describe the landscape of existing resources, both financial and structural, to support global tobacco control research and strengthen research capacity in developing countries. We identify key organizations that support international efforts, provide examples of partnerships between developed and developing countries, and make recommendations for advancing global tobacco research. There is a need for increased commitment from organizations to support global tobacco control research.

Objectives. We estimated the effects of snowfalls on US traffic crash rates between 1975 and 2000. Methods. We linked all recorded fatal crashes (1.4 million) for the 48 contiguous states from 1975 through 2000 to daily state weather data. For a subsample including 17 states during the 1990s, we also linked all recorded property-damage-only crashes (22.9 million) and nonfatal-injury crashes (13.5 million) to daily weather data. Employing negative binomial regressions, we investigated the effects of snowfall on crash counts. Fixed effects and other controls were included to address potential confounders. Results. Snow days had fewer fatal crashes than dry days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 0.97), but more nonfatal-injury crashes (IRR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.18, 1.29) and property-damage-only crashes (IRR=1.45; 95% CI=1.38, 1.52). The first snowy day of the year was substantially more dangerous than other snow days in terms of fatalities (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI=1.08, 1.21), particularly for elderly drivers (IRR=1.34; 95% CI=1.23, 1.50). Conclusions. The toll of snow-related crashes is substantial. Our results may help estimate the potential benefits of safety innovations currently proposed by meteorology and traffic safety experts.

Since its origins in the 1960s, tobacco control has achieved remarkable success against the scourge of tobacco-produced disease and death. Yet tobacco use, especially cigarette smoking, remains the world's leading cause of preventable premature death and is likely to do so for decades to come. Evidence-based policies seem incapable of substantially hastening the demise of smoking. Slowness in the decline of smoking in developed nations, and increasing smoking in many low- and middle-income countries has sparked interest in novel, even radical 'endgame' strategies to eliminate the toll of tobacco. This paper identifies the principal endgame proposals and, with the other papers in this volume, has the goal of expanding and deepening the endgame conversation by engaging the broader tobacco control community. While we struggle today with often widely divergent perspectives and beliefs about what is possible and how it might be achieved, we all share the same vision of the final words to this story: ‘The end’.

To estimate the magnitude and age distribution of lifetime health care expenditures.Claims data on 3.75 million Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan members, and data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the Michigan Mortality Database, and Michigan nursing home patient counts.Data were aggregated and summarized in year 2000 dollars by service, age, and gender.We use life table models to simulate a typical lifetime's distribution of expenditures, employing cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific health care costs and the mortality experience of the population. We determine remaining lifetime expenditures at each age for all initial members of a birth cohort. Separately, we calculate remaining expenditures for survivors at all ages. Using cross-sectional data, the analysis holds disease incidence, medical technology, and health care prices constant, thus permitting an exclusive focus on the role of age in health care costs.Per capita lifetime expenditure is USD $316,600, a third higher for females (USD $361,200) than males (USD $268,700). Two-fifths of this difference owes to women's longer life expectancy. Nearly one-third of lifetime expenditures is incurred during middle age, and nearly half during the senior years. For survivors to age 85, more than one-third of their lifetime expenditures will accrue in their remaining years.Given the essential demographic phenomenon of our time, the rapid aging of the population, our findings lend increased urgency to understanding and addressing the interaction between aging and health care spending.

Objective: To assess experts’ opinions about the future of, and potential to improve individual and public health through “tobacco harm reduction” (THR), the use of novel nicotine containing products purporting to reduce the health risks from cigarette smoking. Design: Semi-structured telephone interviews on nine topic areas, with qualitative content analysis of coded transcripts. Participants: 29 professionals with expertise related to tobacco and interest in THR, including prominent tobacco control advocates (7), pharmaceutical (3) and tobacco industry scientists/officials (5), non-industry scientists (12), and Congressional staff (2). Results: Respondents agreed that harm reduction is at minimum theoretically plausible, that characteristics of “good” and “bad” THR products can be identified, that government regulation is essential but not likely in the foreseeable future, and that additional scientific data are very much needed. However, there was no consensus on specifics, such as preferred regulatory strategies or examples of ideal THR products. Disagreement was seen not only across but also within respondent categories. Mistrust of key stakeholders—for example, tobacco control advocates distrust of tobacco industry scientists and vice versa—was pervasive, and cited frequently as a barrier to regulation and collaboration. Conclusions: Continued dialogue and debate are essential as we enter a new and uncertain era of products purporting to reduce tobacco produced harm. Experts have concluded that effective government regulation is crucial to minimising the risks associated with THR and maximising potential benefits.

Objective. We sought to understand who constitutes the sizable population of nondaily, or some-day (SD), smokers. Methods. We analyzed descriptive statistics and regression results using the 1998–1999 Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplement to determine the prevalence of SD smokers, their sociodemographic characteristics, and the smoking patterns and histories of groups differentiated by the length and stability of their SD smoking. Results. SD smokers make up 19.2% of all current smokers. Among SD smokers, 44.6% have smoked less than daily for at least 1 year, no more than 14.4% are just starting to smoke, and the rest are likely in transition. Overall, SD smokers smoked a mean of 102 cigarettes per month (compared to 566.4 for daily smokers), on an average of 14.5 days out of the past 30. Conclusions. SD smokers make up a substantial segment of the smoking population. They are not just beginning to smoke nor trying to quit. Many have developed a long-standing pattern of nondaily smoking, smoking relatively few cigarettes on the days when they do smoke. They are not substantially younger than daily smokers, as one might expect.

Cigarette smoking is a vicious cycle. Each year a new generation of children experiments with smoking. In many societies, half of them will become addicted, most destined to smoke for decades thereafter until either they manage to quit or death ends their struggle to do so. The glamorous, seductive, and youthful images of cigarette advertising copy—the ruggedly handsome cowboy pulling on his cigarette, the sexy and impossibly lean female toying with hers—give way over time to the harsh reality of wizened faces and tar coated lungs that gasp urgently for breath. Smoking kills one of every two life long smokers. The unlucky half loses an average of 15 years of life compared with people who never smoke. Their children or grandchildren become their replacement smokers. The cycle repeats itself again and again, year after year. The fraction of young people who begin to smoke is not constant year to year, however. In the USA, 38.8% of high school seniors had smoked within a month of being surveyed in 1976. That figure fell gradually to a low of 27.8% in 1992 and then rose, rapidly, to 36.5% five years later in 1997. A mere five years thereafter—in 2002—the percentage of monthly smokers had fallen to 26.7%, the lowest figure ever recorded in the 27 year history of the survey. Among their younger schoolmates, the proportionate changes during the 1990s were even more dramatic: 20.8% of 10th graders were monthly smokers in 1991, a figure that jumped to 30.4% in 1996 and then plunged to 17.7% in 2002. Among eighth graders, the comparable figures were 14.3% in 1991, 21.0% in 1996, and 10.7% in 2002.1 What is it that caused the proportion of high school seniors smoking to rise by almost a third from 1992 to 1997 and then to drop …

A nascent debate pits researchers who believe that hard-core smokers are coming to dominate the remaining population of smokers against others who perceive the hardening of the target as a far more distant concern. At stake is the future emphasis of tobacco control: should we alter the current allocation of resources between treatment of individual smokers and modification of the psychosocial environment through public education and policy measures? We review the evidence and conclude that: (1) hardening is probably occurring in the sense that, compared with earlier generations, many of today's smokers possibly do have greater difficulty quitting, or are inherently less willing to do so. (2) Hardening may be most usefully construed in the context of specific groups of smokers, such as the mentally ill, who may constitute a growing fraction of the remaining smoking population. (3) Using conventional measures, however, we find little evidence that the population of smokers as a whole is hardening. Cessation rates have not decreased. (4) Truly hard-core smokers necessarily constitute a very small fraction of the population. Quitting-susceptible smokers continue to dominate the smoking population. (5) Hardening and the potential existence of true hard-core smokers recommend creative thinking about, and devotion of resources to, finding new ways to help the most dependent smokers to quit. (6) Sound research recommends the expansion of comprehensive tobacco-control programs in both the public and private sectors, and does not support reallocation of resources from such programs toward more intensive individualized treatment. We can afford both.

Despite their lethality, cigarettes are subject to little regulation that directly restricts their contents or their legality. This may change in the near future with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the world's first global health treaty, now in force, as well as developments in a few individual countries. Cigarettes are subject to a substantial number of country-specific regulations regarding their conditions of sale: their price (mostly through taxation), the places where they can be consumed (clean indoor air laws), who can smoke them (prohibitions on their use by or sales to minors), how they can be advertised or promoted (if at all), and how they must be packaged (minimum pack sizes, warning labels, plain packaging). Such policies constitute the core of successful tobacco control. The FCTC has been ratified by 180 countries representing 90% of the world's population. The FCTC requires compliance with numerous provisions relating to the kinds of regulations noted above. The treaty also mandates explicit attention to direct product regulation. Several countries have such authority, at least in limited forms. In the US, for example, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) now has the legal authority to regulate tobacco products, including their contents. The possibility exists that, in the foreseeable future, a country will mandate product standards that will substantially reduce the appeal of cigarettes and other combusted tobacco products, which are by far the leading sources of the death and disease associated with tobacco.

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 gave the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory authority over cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products and authorised it to assert jurisdiction over other tobacco products. As with other Federal agencies, FDA is required to assess the costs and benefits of its significant regulatory actions. To date, FDA has issued economic impact analyses of one proposed and one final rule requiring graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging and, most recently, of a proposed rule that would assert FDA’s authority over tobacco products other than cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. Given the controversy over the FDA's approach to assessing net economic benefits in its proposed and final rules on GWLs and the importance of having economic impact analyses prepared in accordance with sound economic analysis, a group of prominent economists met in early 2014 to review that approach and, where indicated, to offer suggestions for an improved analysis. We concluded that the analysis of the impact of GWLs on smoking substantially underestimated the benefits and overestimated the costs, leading the FDA to substantially underestimate the net benefits of the GWLs. We hope that the FDA will find our evaluation useful in subsequent analyses, not only of GWLs but also of other regulations regarding tobacco products. Most of what we discuss applies to all instances of evaluating the costs and benefits of tobacco product regulation and, we believe, should be considered in FDA's future analyses of proposed rules., Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (Grant 71484)

With the tobacco industry developing and test marketing a wide array of modified cigarettes and novel nicotine-delivery products, the era of tobacco harm reduction is upon us. Like today's new technologies, two previous generations of cigarette innovation-filtered cigarettes in the 1950s and low tar and nicotine cigarettes in the late 1960s and early 1970s were introduced to offer smokers an ostensibly less hazardous means of smoking, and therefore an alternative to quitting. Both innovations maintained cigarette sales and consequently may well have increased the morbidity and mortality toll of smoking. Will a new generation of harm reduction products improve the public's health, or will the experience of the past half-century be repeated? This paper examines the concept of tobacco harm reduction and describes the variety of methods employed in pursuit of it. Through an examination of the experience with filters and low tar and nicotine cigarettes, and an explicit consideration of today's issues and challenges, the paper focuses attention on the essential dimensions of the contemporary harm reduction debate: how science can establish whether novel products or methods will reduce risks to health for individual smokers, or at least exposures likely to influence risks; how a determination can be made as to the likely population impacts of the introduction and marketing of novel products; how health professionals and consumers can learn the potential and limits of harm reduction; and what role for governmental regulation is possible and desirable.

The emergence of potential reduced-exposure tobacco and cigarette-like products and the reduction of smoking as a treatment approach, have recently been forcing the debate and discussion about the science that is necessary to inform policies, regulation, and programs. To deal effectively with the issues evolving around tobacco harm reduction, a comprehensive and strategic research agenda must be forged, and a multi-disciplinary, collaborative approach must be taken. The goal of this article is to describe research challenges and issues related to tobacco exposure and harm reduction. Scientists from multiple disciplines and individuals from government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and tobacco control advocacy groups as well as the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries attended a two-day meeting that focused on addressing the current knowledge regarding tobacco harm reduction, identifying gaps in knowledge, and recommending research directions. Workgroups, comprising a subset of attendees, met after the conference to synthesize, discuss, and prioritize the important research frontiers. The resulting document provides guidance for scientists, grant funding agencies, industry and policy makers by identifying areas in which to invest research effort and funds to develop a science base to ensure the future health of this nation and world.

Debates over national tobacco legislation and the use of state settlement funds demonstrate a need for information on the effects of tobacco control policies. Computer simulation models that are based on empirical evidence and that account for the variety of influences on tobacco use can be useful tools for informing policy makers. They can identify the effects of different policies, convey the importance of policy approaches to tobacco control, and help policy planners and researchers to better understand policies. This paper examines the role of simulation models in public policy, and discusses several recent models and limitations of those models.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) prepared an economic impact analysis of a proposed rule for graphic warning labels on tobacco products. This commentary discusses the analysis and finds ...

The 1964 Surgeon General's report on smoking and health concluded that "Cigarette smoking is a health hazard of sufficient importance in the United States to warrant appropriate remedial action." The adoption of remedial actions over the next half century produced what is arguably the most important public health triumph of that period in the United States and in other developed nations. At the heart of the remedial actions were governmental policies. By raising cigarette price, taxation is especially effective at reducing smoking, encouraging some smokers to quit and others to reduce their daily consumption, while also discouraging the initiation of smoking by children. Smoke-free workplace policies have dramatically reduced workers' exposure to the toxins in cigarette smoke, smoking, employers' costs, and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions. Other policies have also helped diminish the toll of smoking. The successes of tobacco control notwithstanding, future progress will occur slowly unless society finds new, possibly radical "endgame" strategies to hasten the arrival of a smoke-free society.

OBJECTIVE To provide a comprehensive review of interventions and policies aimed at reducing youth cigarette smoking in the United States, including strategies that have undergone evaluation and emerging innovations that have not yet been assessed for efficacy. DATA SOURCES Medline literature searches, books, reports, electronic list servers, and interviews with tobacco control advocates. DATA SYNTHESIS Interventions and policy approaches that have been assessed or evaluated were categorised using a typology with seven categories (school based, community interventions, mass media/public education, advertising restrictions, youth access restrictions, tobacco excise taxes, and direct restrictions on smoking). Novel and largely untested interventions were described using nine categories. CONCLUSIONS Youth smoking prevention and control efforts have had mixed results. However, this review suggests a number of prevention strategies that are promising, especially if conducted in a coordinated way to take advantage of potential synergies across interventions. Several types of strategies warrant additional attention and evaluation, including aggressive media campaigns, teen smoking cessation programmes, social environment changes, community interventions, and increasing cigarette prices. A significant proportion of the resources obtained from the recent settlement between 46 US states and the tobacco industry should be devoted to expanding, improving and evaluating “youth centred” tobacco prevention and control activities.

From 1965 to 1990, the prevalence of cigarette smoking among US adults (aged > or = 18 years) fell steadily and substantially. Data for the 1990s suggest that the smoking initiation rate is increasing and that the decline in the prevalence of smoking may have stalled, raising the fear that the historical 25-year decline will not continue. The authors used a new dynamic forecasting model to show that although the decline may slow down, the demographics of smoking imply that prevalence will inexorably continue to decline over the next several decades, even without any intensified efforts aimed at tobacco control. The authors estimated and validated the model using historical (1965-1993) data collected by the National Health Interview Surveys on the prevalence of smoking among adults. Their results indicate that the current increase in the smoking initiation rate partially explains the fact that the prevalence of smoking has apparently leveled off, but even if the most grim assumptions about future initiation rates are used, the prevalence of smoking among adults will continue to decline for several more decades. The authors predict that if current initiation and cessation behaviors persist, the prevalence of smoking among adults will automatically decline from its current level of 25% to 15-16% by the second quarter of the next century. Even so, smoking will remain the nation's leading cause of premature death.

The author reflects on the 50th anniversary of the U.S. Surgeon General's report on smoking and health as of January 2014 and the its effect on tobacco use in the U.S. Topics include the remedial actions by public health officials including cigarette tax increases, smoke-free environments, anti-smoking media campaigns, and the development of smoking cessation treatments.