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I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Their market shares within each destination also remained significantly lower for four decades. Decomposing the persistent market-share losses shows that they primarily stem from lack of extensive-margin growth, as the financing shock caused importers to source more from new trade partnerships. Exporters producing more substitutable goods, those with little access to alternative forms of credit, and those trading with more distant partners experienced more persistent losses, consistent with the existence of sunk costs and the importance of finance for intermediating trade.

The seismic resilience of structures and infrastructures is affected by damage accumulation phenomena, mainly related to the type of hysteresis. Specifically, pinching drives the cyclic response of several building materials, such as reinforced concrete and masonry. Structural systems affected by pinching phenomena are prone to exhibit a dramatic increment of their displacement response after multiple cycles (e.g. repeated earthquakes). The authors estimate a reinforced concrete pier's response using truncated incremental dynamic analysis by concatenating three earthquake scenarios. The authors adopted a Bouc–Wen class hysteresis model to simulate the reinforced concrete pier's cyclic response, matching its experimental cyclic response. The current analysis proved that ductility and resistance primarily drive the seismic response after a single earthquake. However, the performance after multiple earthquakes strongly depends on the pinching, degradation and drift accumulation, which are generally neglected in standard design practices.

There has been increasing attention given to the notion that international education consists of non-linear and multi-directional transmissive exchanges between existing institutional academic cond...

How does entrepreneurial education impact the persistence and hysteresis of entrepreneurial intent? Survival analysis is used to answer this question based on a quasi-experimental design. Being a m...

Caching is a fundamental element of networking systems since the early days of the Internet. By filtering requests toward custodians, caches reduce the bandwidth required by the latter and the delay experienced by clients. The requests that are not served by a cache, in turn, comprise its miss stream. We refer to the dependence of the cache state and miss stream on its history as hysteresis. Although hysteresis is at the core of caching systems, a dimension that has not been systematically studied in previous works relates to its impact on caching systems between misses, evictions, and insertions. In this article, we propose novel mechanisms and models to leverage hysteresis on cache evictions and insertions. The proposed solutions extend TTL-like mechanisms and rely on two knobs to tune the time between insertions and evictions given a target hit rate. We show the general benefits of hysteresis and the particular improvement of the two thresholds strategy in reducing download times, making the system more predictable and accounting for different costs associated with object retrieval.

By applying the non-linear quantile unit-root test and Fourier quantile unit-root test, this research investigates the hysteresis properties and growth stability of total and disaggregated renewabl...

Clazosentan's potential QT liability was investigated in a thorough QT study in which clazosentan was administered intravenously as a continuous infusion of 20 mg/h immediately followed by 60 mg/h. Clazosentan prolonged the placebo-corrected change-from-baseline QT interval corrected for RR with Fridericia's formula (ΔΔQTcF) with the maximum QT effect occurring 4 h after the maximum drug concentration, apparently associated with vomiting. The delayed effect precluded the standard linear modeling approach. This analysis aimed at characterizing the concentration-QT relationship in consideration of RR-QT hysteresis, concentration-ΔΔQTcF hysteresis, and the influence of vomiting. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was applied to characterize pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, i.e., ΔΔQTcF. Simulations were used to predict ΔΔQTcF for expected therapeutic dose used in Phase 3 clinical development. Correction for RR-QT hysteresis did not influence ΔΔQTcF to a relevant extent. Pharmacokinetics of clazosentan were best described by a linear two-compartment model. The delayed QT prolongation was characterized by an indirect-response model with loglinear drug effect. Vomiting had no statistically significant influence on QT prolongation despite apparent differences between subjects vomiting and not vomiting, probably since vomiting occurred mostly after the main QT prolongation. Following a simulated 3-h infusion of 15 mg/h of clazosentan, the upper bound of the predicted 90% CI for mean ΔΔQTcF was expected to exceed the 10-ms regulatory threshold of concern with maximum effect 3.5 h after end of infusion. TRN: NCT03657446, 05 Sep 2018.

Background Anaesthetic induction occurs at higher plasma drug concentrations than emergence in animal studies. Some studies find evidence for such anaesthetic hysteresis in humans, whereas others do not. Traditional thinking attributes hysteresis to drug equilibration between plasma and the effect site. Indeed, a key difference between human studies showing anaesthetic hysteresis and those that do not is in how effect-site equilibration was modelled. However, the effect-site is a theoretical compartment in which drug concentration cannot be measured experimentally. Thus, it is not clear whether drug equilibration models with experimentally intractable compartments are sufficiently constrained to unequivocally establish evidence for the presence or absence of anaesthetic hysteresis. Methods We constructed several models. One lacked hysteresis beyond effect-site equilibration. In another, neuronal dynamics contributed to hysteresis. We attempted to distinguish between these two systems using drug equilibration models. Results Our modelling studies showed that one can always construct an effect-site equilibration model such that hysteresis collapses. So long as the concentration in the effect-site cannot be measured directly, the correct effect-site equilibration model and the one that erroneously collapses hysteresis are experimentally indistinguishable. We also found that hysteresis can naturally arise even in a simple network of neurones independently of drug equilibration. Conclusions Effect-site equilibration models can readily collapse hysteresis. However, this does not imply that hysteresis is solely attributable to the kinetics of drug equilibration.

BACKGROUND: Anaesthetic induction occurs at higher plasma drug concentrations than emergence in animal studies. Some studies find evidence for such anaesthetic hysteresis in humans, whereas others do not. Traditional thinking attributes hysteresis to drug equilibration between plasma and the effect site. Indeed, a key difference between human studies showing anaesthetic hysteresis and those that do not is in how effect-site equilibration was modelled. However, the effect-site is a theoretical compartment in which drug concentration cannot be measured experimentally. Thus, it is not clear whether drug equilibration models with experimentally intractable compartments are sufficiently constrained to unequivocally establish evidence for the presence or absence of anaesthetic hysteresis. METHODS: We constructed several models. One lacked hysteresis beyond effect-site equilibration. In another, neuronal dynamics contributed to hysteresis. We attempted to distinguish between these two systems using drug equilibration models. RESULTS: Our modelling studies showed that one can always construct an effect-site equilibration model such that hysteresis collapses. So long as the concentration in the effect-site cannot be measured directly, the correct effect-site equilibration model and the one that erroneously collapses hysteresis are experimentally indistinguishable. We also found that hysteresis can naturally arise even in a simple network of neurones independently of drug equilibration. CONCLUSIONS: Effect-site equilibration models can readily collapse hysteresis. However, this does not imply that hysteresis is solely attributable to the kinetics of drug equilibration.

Industrial structure can describe not only the structural relationships between industrial output capacities, but also the structural relationships between industrial economic outputs. Fixed-asset investment affects industrial structure through the formation of capital stock and contemporaneous demand. Based on VAR model, this paper utilizes Granger causality test and other econometric methods to analyze the hysteresis relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure in China from 1991 to 2017. In addition, the contemporaneous relationships are identified by employing the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis. The results show that: The hysteresis relationships exist in primary and secondary industries between fixed-asset investment and their respective value added. The fixed-asset investment in primary and tertiary industries are the contemporaneous causes of positive effect to the value added of primary industry. And the value added of secondary industry is the contemporaneous cause of positive effect to its fixed-asset investment.

OBJECTIVES Hysteresis of the respiratory system pressure-volume curve is related to alveolar surface forces, lung stress relaxation, and tidal reexpansion/collapse. Hysteresis has been suggested as a means of assessing lung recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between hysteresis, mechanical characteristics of the respiratory system, and lung recruitment assessed by a CT scan in mechanically ventilated acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. DESIGN Prospective observational study. SETTING General ICU of a university hospital. PATIENTS Twenty-five consecutive sedated and paralyzed patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (age 64 ± 15 yr, body mass index 26 ± 6 kg/m, PaO2/FIO2 147 ± 42, and positive end-expiratory pressure 9.3 ± 1.4 cm H2O) were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS A low-flow inflation and deflation pressure-volume curve (5-45 cm H2O) and a sustained inflation recruitment maneuver (45 cm H2O for 30 s) were performed. A lung CT scan was performed during breath-holding pressure at 5 cm H2O and during the recruitment maneuver at 45 cm H2O. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Lung recruitment was computed as the difference in noninflated tissue and in gas volume measured at 5 and at 45 cm H2O. Hysteresis was calculated as the ratio of the area enclosed by the pressure-volume curve and expressed as the hysteresis ratio. Hysteresis was correlated with respiratory system compliance computed at 5 cm H2O and the lung gas volume entering the lung during inflation of the pressure-volume curve (R = 0.749, p < 0.001 and R = 0.851, p < 0.001). The hysteresis ratio was related to both lung tissue and gas recruitment (R = 0.266, p = 0.008, R = 0.357, p = 0.002, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the optimal cutoff value to predict lung tissue recruitment for the hysteresis ratio was 28% (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.62-0.98), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.77, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Hysteresis of the respiratory system computed by low-flow pressure-volume curve is related to the anatomical lung characteristics and has an acceptable accuracy to predict lung recruitment.

In the Chinese context of a stratified higher education system and significant urban–rural inequality, rural students are generally facing constrained possibilities for social mobility through higher education. Despite these structural constraints, some exceptional rural students, like all the participants in this research, manage to get themselves enrolled in the urban university. Drawing on participants’ subjective narratives about their first encounters in the urban university, I argue that the rural students in this research were confronted with two levels of habitus–field disjunctures, namely, the rural–urban disjuncture and academic disjuncture. Then, through examining participants’ narratives about their hysteresis effects and emotional suffering, I suggest the sense of feeling lost and inferior reveals how various types of domination in the external structure of the field of the urban university play a part in affecting rural students’ inner emotional worlds.

Since the 1960s, theoretical and empirical advances in limnology have offered lake managers different approaches to address lake eutrophication problems. The Vollenweider input–output model and the...

This study presents a dynamic Kaleckian model with different demand and distribution regimes, a monetary policy rule and hysteresis in the natural output level. We analyse the local stability of the steady state and the transitional dynamics in different combinations of demand and distribution regimes. Our model indicates that the initial condition in an economy matters for the steady state selection from multiple ones. Using impulse response function analysis, we show that a temporary shock to the income distribution can cause permanent effects on the dynamics of endogenous variables. Moreover, the degree of hysteresis influences the magnitude of impact on output levels. Monetary policy cannot stabilise output levels in the face of temporary shocks. Finally, we find that in a wage-led demand regime, a rise in inequality of functional income may lead to secular stagnation.

As a result of climate and land‐use changes, grasslands have been subjected to intensifying drought regimes. Extreme droughts could interfere in the positive feedbacks between grasses and soil water content, pushing grasslands across critical thresholds of productivity and leading them to collapse. If this happens, systems may show hysteresis and costly management interventions might be necessary to restore predrought productivity. Thus, neglecting critical transitions may lead to mismanagement of grasslands and to irreversible loss of ecosystem services. Rainfall manipulation experiments constitute a powerful approach to investigate the risk of such critical transitions. However, experiments performed to date have rarely applied extreme droughts and have used resilience indices that disregard the existence of hysteresis. Here, we suggest how to incorporate critical transitions when designing rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands and when measuring their resilience to drought. The ideas presented here have the potential to trigger a perspective shift among experimental researchers, into a new state where the existence of critical transitions will be discussed, experimentally tested, and largely considered when assessing and managing vegetation resilience to global changes., We suggest two different approaches of how rainfall manipulation experiments in grasslands can be carried out to investigate critical transitions of productivity. We aim to trigger a perspective shift and guide researchers along the trajectory to a new state, where the existence of critical transitions will be discussed, experimentally tested, and largely considered when assessing and managing vegetation resilience to global changes.

When a person experiences a severe stroke, their relatives must assume the role of partners in the rehabilitation process. Drawing on Bourdieu’s field theory, this study investigates the potential gap between the subjective expectations of relatives in terms of the assistance and care they can offer patients with severe brain injuries and the objective constraints of a healthcare field. Using data from observations, as well as interviews with relatives and official documents, this study shows how some relatives, reliant on their habitus, bring to their collaboration with healthcare professionals an expectation that the healthcare field will be able to take care of their multiple individual needs. However, due to hysteresis - a gap between their dispositions and the objective possibilities of the transformed healthcare field - these relatives are not equipped to recognise, grasp and occupy their new field position. We conclude that Bourdieu’s theoretical concept of hysteresis may help us understand how changes in the healthcare field may lead to a mismatch between the field and the habitus manifested in interactions between patients, relatives and healthcare professionals, so that the ill-adjusted habitus of relatives leads to missed chances in relation to the opportunities objectively offered by the field. When a person experiences a severe stroke, their relatives must assume the role of partners in the rehabilitation process. Drawing on Bourdieu’s field theory, we investigated the potential gap between the subjective expectations of relatives in terms of the assistance and care they can offer patients with severe brain injuries and the objective constraints of a healthcare field. Using data from observations, as well as interviews with relatives and official documents, our study shows how some relatives, reliant on their habitus, bring to their collaboration with healthcare professionals an expectation that the healthcare field will be able to take care of their multiple individual needs. However, due to hysteresis – a gap between their dispositions and the objective possibilities of the transformed healthcare field – these relatives are not equipped to recognise, grasp and occupy their new field position. We conclude that Bourdieu’s theoretical concept of hysteresis may help to understand how changes in the healthcare field may lead to a mismatch between the field and the habitus manifested in interactions between patients, relatives and healthcare professionals, so that the ill-adjusted habitus of relatives leads to missed chances in relation to the opportunities objectively offered by the field.

We study the distributive effects of a negative shock to banks assets in a saver-capitalist model. We analyze how this kind of heterogeneity affects macroeconomic variables and the distribution between savers and capitalists through banks leverage procyclicality. The distributive effects are non-favourable to savers and long lasting. Lower risk aversion of capitalists strengthens and lengthens the procyclicality of leverage, leading to a lower decrease of savers’ income and consumption. Whilst stricter regulatory requirements are favourable to savers, a tougher inflation targeting is unfavourable to savers. The model is robust to the combined introduction of labour market frictions and hysteresis, which together generate an amplification and lengthening of the recessionary and distributive effects unfavourable to savers.

Most anaesthetists using target-controlled infusion systems will have observed that the calculated effect-site concentration at loss of consciousness is usually higher than the concentration at emergence. Inertia is the ability of biological systems to keep a functional state at rest or in activity and is an active process of resistance to change in state. Hysteresis is a phenomenon whereby the value of a physical property lags behind changes in the effect that is causing it and this is also seen in anaesthesia pharmacology. Recently, a phenomenon called neuronal inertia has been proposed when trying to explain the resistance observed to changes in consciousness induced by general anaesthesia, independent of drug kinetics. This review discusses the existence of this phenomenon and the conceptual and practical impact it may have on induction and recovery from general anaesthesia.

According to the International Conference on Harmonisation E14 QAs R3, concentration-QTc analysis can serve as an alternative to the by-time-point analysis or intersection-union test as the primary basis for decisions to classify the QTc risk of a drug. In a recent scientific white paper on concentration-QTc analysis, a pre-specified linear mixed effect model was suggested to study a QTc prolongation effect. The model assumes a direct time-concordant relationship (direct effect) between QTc interval and drug-concentrations. In the case of lagged drug QTc effects, also called 'hysteresis', a linear direct effect model may yield a biased QTc estimate. In this work, we estimate the bias of QTc effects via simulations when hysteresis is not accounted for in the linear mixed effect model analysis. Simulations are performed to compare different methods of identifying hysteresis when two physiologically plausible QT drug mechanisms are considered. The focus of this paper is to provide hysteresis identification methods and assess the influence of hysteresis in estimating the QT prolongation for most commonly observed QT-Concentration profiles.

Using monthly data of 79 Russian regions from 2003 to 2017, we study the long-run relationship of the retail gasoline prices with the crude oil price and the nominal exchange rate. We find that models that were successfully applied to deal with asymmetries in other countries are not suitable for Russia without taking structural breaks into account. Once breaks are allowed, we find that there is no asymmetry in the long-run elasticities between the gasoline prices and the crude oil price, and no significant hysteresis. However, there is an asymmetric relation between the gasoline price and the exchange rate that has decreased over time. These results also hold after several robustness checks. The evidence reported in this work shows that the effects of the exchange rate on gasoline prices are much more difficult to control than the oil price, and they require a larger set of policy measures: the recent development of a plan to decrease the importance of hydrocarbons exports by producing clean hydrogen using electrolysis and pyrolysis and the potential future export of electricity generated using nuclear power and onshore wind farms may help to diversify the local economy and to shield it from new sanctions.

Conventionally, organizational change research has viewed history as objective facts associated with path dependencies, making change difficult. However, started with the work of Suddaby et al. (2010), a different stance has emerged, viewing history as a subjective, narrative construction that can be utilized to facilitate change. This paper responds to calls for ways of bridging these two perceptions and increasing historical consciousness in organizational change studies. To these ends, the paper explores the capacity of Bourdieu’s construct of hysteresis as a bridging construct. Based on an ethnographic study, the paper operationalizes hysteresis to analyze the response strategies of technicians and shop stewards to organizational change following privatization in a Scandinavian telecommunications company. The paper argues that hysteresis constitutes a valuable alternative to bridging constructs available in extant literature and holds the potential to open new avenues for exploring the implications of history for organizational change.

Background The physiological behavior of lungs affected by the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) differs between inspiration and expiration and presents heterogeneous gravity-dependent distribution. This phenomenon, highlighted by the different distribution of opening/closing pressure and by the hysteresis of the pressure–volume curve, can be studied by CT scan, but the technique expose the patient to radiations, cannot track changes during time and is not feasible at the bedside. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) could help in assessing at the bedside regional inspiratory and expiratory mechanical properties. We evaluated regional opening/closing pressures, hysteresis and atelectrauma during inspiratory and expiratory low-flow pressure–volume curves in ARDS using electrical impedance tomography. Methods Pixel-level inspiratory and expiratory PV curves (PVpixel) between 5 and 40 cmH2O were constructed integrating EIT images and airway opening pressure signal from 8 ARDS patients. The lower inflection point in the inspiratory and expiratory PVpixel were used to find opening (OPpixel) and closing (CPpixel) pressures. A novel atelectrauma index (AtI) was calculated as the percentage of pixels opening during the inspiratory and closing during the expiratory PV curves. The maximal hysteresis (HysMax) was calculated as the maximal difference between normalized expiratory and inspiratory PV curves. Analyses were conducted in the global, dependent and non-dependent lung regions. Results Gaussian distribution was confirmed for both global OPpixel (r2 = 0.90) and global CPpixel (r2 = 0.94). The two distributions were significantly different with higher values for OPpixel (p pixel and CPpixel distributions were Gaussian, and in the dependent lung regions, both were significantly higher than in the non-dependent ones (p Conclusions Gravity impacts the regional distribution of opening and closing pressure, hysteresis and atelectrauma, with higher values in the dorsal lung. Regional differences between inspiratory and expiratory lung physiology are detectable at the bedside using EIT and could allow in-depth characterization of ARDS phenotypes and guide personalized ventilation settings. Graphic abstract

Significant expansions in higher education over the last few decades have raised concerns about an over-supply of graduates in the labour market, such that a degree no longer seamlessly translates into a graduate career or occupation, with the increased life chances this could bring. In this paper, we report a study of undergraduates’ perceptions of graduate careers and the graduate labour market. As the data showed perceptions were shaped strongly by social class we applied a Bourdieusian theoretical lens to examine the role of capitals and hysteresis of habitus on students’ expectations. The study demonstrates how the classed nature of the graduate labour market manifests itself through differences in the level of understanding and preparedness for navigating the labour market. We highlight the structural barriers ‘non-traditional’ graduates face when entering and navigating a volatile graduate labour market.

Determining ideal pacing rates to meet physiological needs and optimizing programming to prevent unnecessary right ventricular pacing in dogs requires an understanding of heart rate profiles and applicable pacing technology. The heart rate and rhythm of the dog is complex necessitating investigation of rate requirements of activity and circadian influences. Overlaying this information are a multiplicity of other factors such as age, breed, temperament, cardiovascular disease and underlining rhythm disorders that contribute to the difficulty in making general conclusions. However, all such information permits better implementation of programming options with the goal of better outcomes. In this review (Part 1 of a two-part review) instantaneous heart rate, rolling average heart rate, simple average heart rate, heart rate tachograms, RR interval tachograms (2D, 3D and dynamic), and Poincare plots (2D, 3D and dynamic) are discussed as they apply to decisions in the determination and examination of pacing rates for dogs programmed in the VVI pacing mode (Ventricular paced, Ventricular sensed, Inhibited pacing). The applicable pacing operations available for three pacemaker companies are reviewed (Abbott, Biotronik/Dextronix, and Medtronic). The programmable options considered include: slowest pacing rate without additional features to extend the pacing interval, sleep/rest rate preferences, hysteresis to lengthen pacing interval following intrinsic beats, and intermittent increases in pacing following abrupt loss of intrinsic rhythm. Recommendations are suggested for follow-up of individual dogs with examination of pacing statistics and Holter monitoring.

Human sensorimotor decision-making has a tendency to get ‘stuck in a rut’, being biased towards selecting a previously implemented action structure (‘hysteresis’). Existing explanations cannot provide a principled account of when hysteresis will occur. We propose that hysteresis is an emergent property of a dynamical system learning from the consequences of its actions. To examine this, 152 participants moved a cursor to a target on a tablet device whilst avoiding an obstacle. Hysteresis was observed when the obstacle moved sequentially across the screen between trials, but not with random obstacle placement. Two further experiments (n = 20) showed an attenuation when time and resource constraints were eased. We created a simple computational model capturing dynamic probabilistic estimate updating that showed the same patterns of results. This provides the first computational demonstration of how sensorimotor decision-making can get ‘stuck in a rut’ through the dynamic updating of its probability estimates.Significance StatementHumans show a bias to select the organisational structure of a recently carried out action, even when an alternative option is available with lower costs. This ‘hysteresis’ is said to be more efficient than creating a new plan and it has been interpreted as a ‘design feature’ within decision-making systems. We suggest such teleological arguments are redundant, with hysteresis being a naturally emergent property of a dynamic control system that evolved to operate effectively in an uncertain and partially observable world. Empirical experimentation and simulations from a ‘first principle’ computational model of decision-making were consistent with our hypothesis. The identification of such a mechanism can inform robotics research, suggesting how robotic agents can show human-like flexibility in complex dynamic environments.

Whether long memory effect plays an important role in car-following models remains unsolved. In this paper, we study the possible relationship between long memory effect and hysteresis phenomena observed in practice. Especially, we have compared the performance of different deep learning based car-following models that take various time-scale historical information as inputs. Test show that hysteresis phenomena can be correctly simulated only by car-following models with long memory. So, we argue that car-following models should embed long memory effect appropriately.

Ethical social welfare functions treat generations equally and respect Pareto improvements to non-null sets of generations. There are ‘perfect’ optima for such preferences: generations facing the same circumstances choose the same actions; and all circumstances are treated as possible. If each stationary policy determines a unique long-run distribution that is independent of the starting point, then there is a recursive formulation of policies that are simultaneously optimal for all of the preferences studied here. When the ergodic distribution can depend on early events (hysteresis), the curvature of the social welfare function determines the risks that society is willing to undertake and leads to a variant of the precautionary principle.

This paper investigates how management accounting systems (MAS) are used by actors working in a French public housing sector integrate conflicting institutional pressures in their operational pract...

Using monthly data of 79 Russian regions from 2003 to 2017, we study the long-run relationship of the retail gasoline prices with the crude oil price and the nominal exchange rate. We find that models that were successfully applied to deal with asymmetries in other countries are not suitable for Russia without taking structural breaks into account. Once breaks are allowed, we find that there is no asymmetry in the long-run elasticities between the gasoline prices and the crude oil price, and no significant hysteresis. However, there is an asymmetric relation between the gasoline price and the exchange rate that has decreased over time. These results also hold after several robustness checks. The evidence reported in this work shows that the effects of the exchange rate on gasoline prices are much more difficult to control than the oil price, and they require a larger set of policy measures: the recent development of a plan to decrease the importance of hydrocarbons exports by producing clean hydrogen using electrolysis and pyrolysis and the potential future export of electricity generated using nuclear power and onshore wind farms may help to diversify the local economy and to shield it from new sanctions.

Computational decision making is discussed in application to seasonal temperature forecasts taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of local climate systems and deficiency of data on reliable observations. We focus on temperature extremes in terms of daily means and first involve the alternative conceptual model of local climate dynamics (the model of hysteresis regulation with double synchronization, so-called HDS-model) into such analytics. Recent years the HDS-model is describing successfully abnormal interannual temperature variability, on the basis of which it becomes potentially possible to extend forecasts of local daily means up to more than 1 year in future. In this connection the novel method of bifurcation traps is proposed, realized and tested. Results of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature illustrate peculiarities of this method in comparison with the traditional viewpoint on the forecasts. We believe that the discussion could be interesting in science and practice in order to increase the confidence of estimations on coming climate changes.

This paper provides a detailed understanding of the mechanism of traffic hysteresis and traffic oscillations from the driver behavior perspective. Microscopic evaluation of trajectories inside seven selected oscillations is performed to obtain a comprehensive picture of these puzzling phenomena. A new method based on driver’s task difficulty (TD) profile is proposed to capture changes in driver behavior in response to the disturbance caused by traffic oscillations. A close connection between the TD profile and evolution (such as formation and growth) of the stop- and -go traffic oscillations is found. Furthermore, driver behaviors inside the oscillations are identified based on driver’s TD profile, and their connection with hysteresis magnitudes is established. Finally, a generalized linear model suggests that variables related to traffic flow and driver characteristics are significant predictors of hysteresis magnitude. One noteworthy finding is that, the bigger the difference between the average TD levels between deceleration and acceleration phases of a vehicle trajectory, the larger the hysteresis magnitude becomes.

To study the seismic response of a traditional timber structure in China, a full-scale model capturing the main characteristics of a representative ancient Chinese wooden structure in Song Dynasty ...

This paper investigates the bipartite tracking problem for nonlinear multi-agent systems over signed directed graphs. Each agent is modeled by a higher-order nonlinear system in strict-feedback form with unknown dynamics and unknown hysteresis input. A distributed adaptive control law is proposed and analysed. Simulation results justify the proposed algorithm.

It is an important decision-making problem for a miner in the blockchain networks if he/she participates in the mining so that he/she earns a reward by creating a new block earlier than other miners. We formulate this decision-making problem as a noncooperative game, because the probability of creating a block depends not only on one's own available computational resources, but also those of other miners. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we show a hysteresis phenomenon of Nash equilibria depending on the reward and a jump phenomenon of miner decisions by a slight change in reward. We also show that the reward for which miners decide not to participate in the mining becomes smaller as the number of miners increases., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures an extended version of a manuscript accepted to IEEE L-CSS

This paper proposes the concept of an electricity conversion coefficient. The variation of the electricity value, with different charging and discharging currents, is unified into dischargi...

Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural disasters and the extent of casualties and damage in numerous incidences is well documented over the past decades. The devastating consequences of seismic events have emphasized the significance of the structural performance assessment. Fragility function, an essential component in seismic vulnerability estimation, is defined by the conditional probability of a particular structure exceeding a certain damage state when subjected to seismic excitations. Eventually, for development of fragility functions, characterization of the structural behavior and quantification of the structural damage states during seismic events are pertinent. Hence, the present research delineates the structural hysteretic behavior and different stages of damage experienced by reinforced concrete (RC) structural components for derivation of seismic fragility functions. The basic requirement in modeling RC structural components under seismic loading is to define a constitutive load-deformation relationship capable of producing strength and stiffness degradation along with pinching at all displacement levels. This is a demanding task considering the numerous parameters contributing to the structural hysteretic behavior. The Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori (BWBN) model, owing to its computational efficiency and mathematical tractability, is adopted as the basis of the current research and amended accordingly to simulate the hysteretic behavior of RC structural components. The Livermore Solver for ordinary Differential Equations (LSODE) is employed to solve the differential equations of the model. A database of RC beam-column joints and walls tested under quasi-static loading is compiled from the literature to determine the model parameters by a Genetic Algorithm (GA), a system identification technique and to successfully calibrate the analytical response with the experimental results. Subsequently, the sensitivity ranking of the model parameters is determined and the relationship between the model parameters and the structural features is derived by regression analysis using the existing database of the structural components. To facilitate structural analysis of RC buildings with beam-column joints and walls using the proposed analytical approach, the hysteresis model is effectively implemented as a user element in ABAQUS. For quantification of different stages of damage experienced by the structural components, the Park-Ang damage model is modified such that the range of the damage index (DI) is between zero and unity. The damage states are classified and quantified in the form of damage indices on the basis of the experimental response of the structural components. Drift ratio is selected as the engineering damage parameter (EDP) for defining the seismic demand in the structural components at any point of the loading history. On the basis of the maximum likelihood test results, a lognormal distribution is found acceptable as the theoretical distribution for fragility assessment of the structural components for all damage states. Thereafter, using incremental dynamic analysis approach, the structural models are subjected to increasing levels of scaled ground motion intensity suitable for Singapore until dynamic instability is reached. The minimum intensity of each ground motion at which the structural models exceed a certain damage state is ascertained to obtain the seismic fragility curves. Doctor of Philosophy (CEE)

Specialized data processing aimed to the emergency forecasting on local climate dynamics over last century from the bifurcation analysis viewpoint can suppose analytics on specific phenomena which were out of considerations until recently. The paper discusses a pilot version of the computer software, where one of such phenomena (namely, so-called interannual temperature variability) is involved into the consideration in daily terms for time and temperature coordinates. Cycling is organized per a local climate system, where five logically independent procedures operate with specialized 3D-structure. Each 3D-structure consists of 20-50 thousands samples of the meteorological observations on land surface air temperature daily means. The theoretical base is provided by the conceptual model on local climate dynamics (so-called HDS-model), where both the amplitude quantization (limited by the temperature Hysteresis) and the time quantization (the Double Synchronization) compete. Thus alternations between three elementary dynamical processes with the same period (one year) and different patterns of annual warming-cooling cycles exist instead of traditional trend estimations calculated for the annual and/or monthly means. We believe that the results could be interesting for scientists and specialists in the research and practical fields connected with consequences of the climate changes.

In heart period (HP) variability (HPV) recordings the percentage of negative HP variations tends to be greater than that of positive ones and this pattern is referred to as HPV asymmetry (HPVA). HPVA has been studied in several experimental conditions in healthy and pathological populations, but its origin is unclear. The baroreflex (BR) exhibits an asymmetric behavior as well given that it reacts more importantly to positive than negative arterial pressure (AP) variations. We tested the hypothesis that the BR asymmetry (BRA) is a HPVA determinant over spontaneous fluctuations of HP and systolic AP (SAP). We studied 100 healthy subjects (age from 21 to 70 yr, 54 men) comprising 20 subjects in each age decade. Electrocardiogram and noninvasive AP were recorded for 15 min at rest in supine position (REST) and during active standing (STAND). The HPVA was evaluated via Porta’s index and Guzik’s index, while the BRA was assessed as the difference, and normalized difference, between BR sensitivities computed over positive and negative SAP variations via the sequence method applied to HP and SAP variability. HPVA significantly increased during STAND and decreased progressively with age. BRA was not significantly detected both at REST and during STAND. However, we found a significant positive association between BRA and HPVA markers during STAND persisting even within the age groups. This study supports the use of HPVA indexes as descriptors of BRA and identified a challenge soliciting the BR response like STAND to maximize the association between HPVA and BRA markers.

In the present, autonomous environmental supervision and management are still insufficient. The approach of independent parameter controlling emerges to restraining plant growth and resource inefficiency. Developing a new method to control environmental parameters for accelerating plant growth should be deployed to satisfy the optimum condition and resource efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel advanced crisp logic-based integrated with adaptive hysteresis control and data fusion algorithm to adapt the behaviour of each plant parameter in a certain condition. The objective of the proposed system is to control each plant parameter into the optimum regime while considering the coupling relationship between them. The measurement results show that our proposed system has a more sustained optimum condition and faster change into the desired grade of membership by adapting the hysteresis regime. Based on the measurements, the proposed system produces an optimum condition that are more sustain and stable and produce accelerated plant growth by 35.33%.

Organic-inorganic hybrid perovskite solar cells (HPSCs) are considered to be the most rapidly developed photovoltaic technology ever till date, portraying promising potential to replace the traditional silicon photovoltaics. In spite of such impressive growth, this technology is inundated with numerous challenges impeding the progress towards commercial viability. It is mainly due to the fact that the advancements in terms of performance efficiency were not equally matched with the fundamental understanding of inherent electronic and physio-chemical properties, modulating the photovoltaic parameters of the devices. Anomalous hysteresis observed in the current-voltage response of HPSCs is one of such major elusive issues prevalent in perovskite photovoltaics. Such hysteresis phenomenon could lead to erroneous estimation of the solar cell device efficiency, thereby its reliability during actual performance becomes questionable; serving as a serious obstacle for progress from both research as well as commercialization perspective. Hence, a detailed understanding of the origin of hysteresis and its associated mechanisms are highly indispensable. Though numerous theories have been proposed to elucidate the underlying causes of hysteresis, its origin is a highly debated topic till date and the most convincing answer is yet to be unraveled. The presented review takes an opportunity to elaborate various governing mechanisms or origins affecting the hysteresis phenomenon from a comprehensive yet insightful standpoint. This report also provides a concise synthesis of intricate interdependencies among the factors influencing hysteresis and highlights potential research strategies to develop hysteresis-free devices; rendering possible pathways to facilitate the viable commercialization of perovskite solar cells.

Here we argue that there are two important steps in the decision process to restore ecological system that are often ignored. First, consideration of restoration is in response to observed change in a system, but ecological systems can fluctuate widely in their normal dynamic. Thus, there is an imperative to interpret ecological change; shifts in community structure that represent "typical" fluctuations in a properly functioning ecosystem do not warrant restoration, while change associated with phase shift in the system may well demand restoration action. Second, where restoration effort is warranted, it needs to be determined whether management responses are likely to be successful within resource constraints. Where ecological change involves pronounced hysteresis, even massive effort may have little chance in effecting recovery to a preferred ecosystem state. Theory and models indicate that consideration of the characteristic length scales (CLSs) of ecological systems provides an unambiguous interpretation of ecological change, enabling differentiation of "typical" fluctuations from phase shift, and here we show that CLSs can be calculated for real communities from their species’ dynamics, and that their behavior is as predicted from theory. We also show that for ecological systems where local interactions and forcings are well understood, validated simulation models can provide a ready means to identify hysteresis and estimate its magnitude. We conclude that there are useful tools available for ecologists to address the key questions of (1) whether restoration attempts are warranted in the first place and, if they are, (2) whether it is practical to pursue them.