1. Relative Valuation with Machine Learning
- Author
-
Paul Geertsema and Helen Lu
- Subjects
Relative valuation ,Soundness ,History ,Economics and Econometrics ,Polymers and Plastics ,business.industry ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Accounting ,Value (economics) ,Economics ,Profitability index ,Artificial intelligence ,Business and International Management ,business ,Initial public offering ,computer ,Multiple ,Finance ,Valuation (finance) ,Discounted cash flow - Abstract
We use a decision-tree-based machine learning approach to perform relative valuation. Stocks are valued using market-to-book, enterprise-value-to-assets and enterprise-value-to-sales multiples. Our machine learning models reduce median absolute valuation errors by between 17% and 50% relative to traditional models. The identified valuation drivers are consistent with theoretical predictions derived from a discounted cash flow approach. Accounting variables related to profitability, growth, efficiency and financial soundness are important valuation drivers. The valuations produced by machine learning models behave like fundamental values. A value-weighted strategy that buys (sells) undervalued (overvalued) stocks generates highly significant abnormal returns. When we use models trained on listed firms to value IPOs, machine learning models outperform traditional models in valuation accuracy and can identify mispriced IPOs.
- Published
- 2022