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BackgroundRobust biomarkers that predict disease outcomes amongst COVID-19 patients are necessary for both patient triage and resource prioritisation. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for COVID-19. However, at present, there is no consensus on the best diagnostic approach to predict outcomes in infected patients. Moreover, it is not clear whether such tools would apply to other potentially pandemic pathogens and therefore of use as stockpile for future pandemic preparedness.MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort observational study to investigate the biology and the prognostic role of interferon alpha-inducible protein 27 (IFI27) in COVID-19 patients.FindingsWe show that IFI27 is expressed in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients and elevated IFI27 expression is associated with the presence of a high viral load. We further demonstrate that systemic host response, as measured by blood IFI27 expression, is associated with COVID-19 severity. For clinical outcome prediction (e.g. respiratory failure), IFI27 expression displays a high positive (0.83) and negative (0.95) predictive value, outperforming all other known predictors of COVID-19 severity. Furthermore, IFI27 is upregulated in the blood of infected patients in response to other respiratory viruses. For example, in the pandemic H1N1/09 swine influenza virus infection, IFI27-like genes were highly upregulated in the blood samples of severely infected patients.InterpretationThese data suggest that prognostic biomarkers targeting the family of IFI27 genes could potentially supplement conventional diagnostic tools in future virus pandemics, independent of whether such pandemics are caused by a coronavirus, an influenza virus or another as yet-to-be discovered respiratory virus.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched the scientific literature using PubMed to identify studies that used the IFI27 biomarker to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients. We used the search terms “IFI27”, “COVID-19, “gene expression” and “outcome prediction”. We did not identify any study that investigated the role of IFI27 biomarker in outcome prediction. Although ten studies were identified using the general terms of “gene expression” and “COVID-19”, IFI27 was only mentioned in passing as one of the identified genes. All these studies addressed the broader question of the host response to COVID-19; none focused solely on using IFI27 to improve the risk stratification of infected patients in a pandemic.Added value of this studyHere, we present the findings of a multi-cohort study of the IFI27 biomarker in COVID-19 patients. Our findings show that the host response, as reflected by blood IFI27 gene expression, accurately predicts COVID-19 disease progression (positive and negative predictive values; 0.83 and 0.95, respectively), outperforming age, comorbidity, C-reactive protein and all other known risk factors. The strong association of IFI27 with disease severity occurs not only in SARS-CoV-2 infection, but also in other respiratory viruses with pandemic potential, such as the influenza virus. These findings suggest that host response biomarkers, such as IFI27, could help identify high-risk COVID-19 patients - those who are more likely to develop infection complications - and therefore may help improve patient triage in a pandemic.Implications of all the available evidenceThis is the first systemic study of the clinical role of IFI27 in the current COVID-19 pandemic and its possible future application in other respiratory virus pandemics. The findings not only could help improve the current management of COVID-19 patients but may also improve future pandemic preparedness.

Dried blood spot (DBS) antibiotic assays can facilitate pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) studies in situations where venous blood sampling is logistically difficult. We sought to develop, validate, and apply a DBS assay for rifampin (RIF), fusidic acid (FUS), and ciprofloxacin (CIP). These antibiotics are considered active against organisms in biofilms and are therefore commonly used for the treatment of infections associated with prosthetic implants. A liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy DBS assay was developed and validated, including red cell partitioning and thermal stability for each drug and the rifampin metabolite desacetyl rifampin (Des-RIF). Plasma and DBS concentrations in 10 healthy adults were compared, and the concentration-time profiles were incorporated into population PK models. The limits of quantification for RIF, Des-RIF, CIP, and FUS in DBS were 15 μg/liter, 14 μg/liter, 25 μg/liter, and 153 μg/liter, respectively. Adjusting for hematocrit, red cell partitioning, and relative recovery, DBS-predicted plasma concentrations were comparable to measured plasma concentrations for each antibiotic ( r > 0.95; P < 0.0001), and Bland-Altman plots showed no significant bias. The final population PK estimates of clearance, volume of distribution, and time above threshold MICs for measured and DBS-predicted plasma concentrations were comparable. These drugs were stable in DBSs for at least 10 days at room temperature and 1 month at 4°C. The present DBS antibiotic assays are robust and can be used as surrogates for plasma concentrations to provide valid PK and PK/PD data in a variety of clinical situations, including therapeutic drug monitoring or studies of implant infections.

Enteroviruses (EV) comprise viruses originally classified on cell culture replication patterns and clinical manifestations into a number of groups: poliovirus, coxsackievirus A, coxsackievirus B and ECHOvirus. The closely related genus Parechovirus has more recently been associated with human disease. EVs are common commensals of the human gut, often found without any ill effects on the person, but are also associated with a wide range of diseases and syndromes including non-specific rash illnesses, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), conjunctivitis, meningitis and encephalitis, myocarditis and polio. This results in a significant burden of disease worldwide, often due to a particular genotype of EV. An estimated 1 billion people are infected with EV every year.