(By staff commentator Pavel Felgengauer. Novaya gazeta, April 20, 2016, p. 6. Condensed text:) A pair of Russian Su-24 bombers cruising over international waters of the Baltic Sea 70 kilometers from Kaliningrad Province flew within several meters of the USS Donald Cook’s deck. A day later, an Su-27 fighter intercepted a US Air Force RC-135U reconnaissance aircraft, reportedly flying within a dozen meters of it. A random gust of wind, and one of the Su-24s could have grazed the rigging, subsequently crashing into the water or onto the destroyer’s deck. The Su-24 would have been destroyed, the USS Donald Cook could also have sustained damage, and inevitably, there would have been casualties. If the Su-27 had collided with the RC-135U in midair, both aircraft and their crews could have been lost. With people killed and equipment destroyed, the smoldering regional conflict could have ignited into a very real war in the worst-case scenario. ... Thankfully, no one was killed, nothing crashed from the sky or burned down, and no one opened preemptive fire. Such incidents are not the first: They have happened before, but they are becoming more frequent, and it seems that Russian [military] commanders have no desire to rein in their subordinates in any way. Both the [Russian] Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin have formally distanced themselves from these [incidents], stating that the [Russian] Defense Ministry has already said everything that needed to be said. For its part, the Defense Ministry, while fully confirming the interception of both the RC-135U and the USS Donald Cook, denies any potential risk. Evidently, the assumption is that since Russia has the Kaliningrad enclave in the Baltic, where its main Baltic Fleet base is located, and Sevastopol in the Black Sea, foreign ships and aircraft must be intercepted and chased away even if they are in international waters. ... According to US military sources, the pair of Su-24s that intercepted the USS Donald Cook were not carrying any weapons. To all appearances, they were Su-24MP reconnaissance aircraft that may have been carrying pods with electronic countermeasures equipment (ECM). A Ka-27 Naval helicopter was also spotted near the destroyer. Evidently, the overflight of the USS Donald Cook was not accidental: This points to a special operation planned in advance that may have involved an attempt to make a direct impact on the USS Donald Cook’s Aegis integrated combat information and control system, and to register its response. ... Then again, the military’s needs extend beyond just technical ones: The Finance Ministry has announced a 10% sequestration of all budget expenditures with the exception of social programs, and if oil prices remain low, more cuts may be in the offing. The Defense Ministry is doing its best to resist, and it seems to have gotten assurances [from the government] that the extremely costly rearmament program will not end up on the chopping block. But there is no money, and something has to give. If the level of confrontation with the US goes up a notch, it would help [the Defense Ministry] in its struggle against the Finance Ministry. Of course, everyone understands that aggressive interception carries the risk of collision and crash, but such things happened in the old days and everything turned out okay - after all, it never came to a war. . . . ... Military acrobatics over the Baltic [Sea] look like madness only at first glance, since everything has been carefully calculated: A [successful] low overfly means the adversary has been put in its place. A crash is fine, too - the people will rally and agree to suffer deprivations for the sake of new arms. ... Hotbeds of armed conflict are proliferating along Russia’s borders: the Crimea and the Donetsk Basin; Syria and Turkey; Nagorno-Karabakh; and the Transcaucasus. And now the Baltic region. Granted, in the Baltic region, unlike those other places, so far there has been no exchange of fire and no casualties. However, the problem is that the situation in the Baltic region is particularly unstable in strategic terms: There are only a few US military groupings there with a few tanks on a rotational basis acting like a deterrence tripwire, so that Moscow understands that any potential conflict would immediately become intercontinental. So in the event of an incident in the Baltic region involving an airplane or a ship, US generals would urge their political leadership to begin the immediate redeployment of substantial reinforcements. Because the Russians can mobilize substantial forces and move them to the Baltic borders much quicker, [US military would insist that] reinforcements should be redeployed without waiting for any conflict to be resolved by diplomatic means. ... In Moscow, if the General Staff is put in a similar situation, it would also insist on immediate action. If the Pentagon is allowed to deploy a secure base in the Baltics, that would put both the St.