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This paper discusses if, how fast and to what maximum yield improvements can be realized in Europe in the coming decades and what the opportunities and relations are to biomass production. The starting point for the analysis is the historic context of developments in European agriculture over the past five decades. Historic developments in European crop and animal protein productivity between 1961 and 2007 show an average mean annual growth rate of 1.6%. In relative terms developments are slower on average in the Netherlands and France at 1.0% y −1 than in Poland and Ukraine (USSR) at 2.2% y −1 . In absolute figures, however, growth has been considerable in WEC and modest in the CEEC. Yield trends further show that significant yield changes can be realized over a short period of time. Positive growth rates of 3–5% y −1 were reached in several countries and for several crops in several decades. In Eastern European countries during their transition in the 1990s, negative growth rates as low as −7% y −1 occurred. Outcomes suggest that productivity levels can be actively steered rather than being just the result of autonomous developments. Current yield gaps differ greatly between Western Europe (France −1 . High yielding lignocellulosic crops could double this potential. It is concluded that the potential to free-up agricultural lands for the production of bioenergy crops in Europe is considerable. The degree to and the pace at which yields develop will determine how much of the potential is opened up. Agricultural policy and technological development are key to open up the potential.

This paper assesses the learning potential of dedicated wood production systems to boost yields and reduce production costs. In particular, the paper analyses past trends and provides a future outlook of developments in dedicated wood production for three cases: eucalyptus production in Brazil, poplar production in Italy and willow production in Sweden. A main objective of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which experience curves can be devised for conventional woody plantation systems, and whether these can also be applied to short rotation cropping (SRC) production systems. For current average SRC production systems, Italian poplar shows the highest cost at 5.5 € GJ−1 followed by Swedish willow at 4.4 € GJ−1 and Brazilian eucalyptus is produced to the lowest costs at 2.8 € GJ−1. It was assessed to what extent production costs can be reduced per step in the production cycle and how this affects the minimum cost levels that can ultimately be achieved. Ultimate cost reduction could lead to delivered costs of 2.2 € GJ−1 for poplar, 1.9 € GJ−1 for willow and 1.9 € GJ−1 for eucalyptus on better quality lands. Based on historic cost data and production trends, experience curves were applied providing progress ratios for poplar in Italy and eucalyptus in Brazil. Brazilian eucalyptus production follows a steeper slope (63–73%) than poplar in Italy (71–78%). The extent to, and rate at, which cost reductions can occur within the next 20 years were evaluated by combining current costs, minimum cost levels and progress ratios with ranges in European and global biomass demand projections. This shows that, at the assumed growth rates for biomass production in Europe and for global production, minimum cost levels can be reached within the next two decades for all cases.