1. Modeling the early temporal dynamics of viral load in respiratory tract specimens of COVID-19 patients in Incheon, the Republic of Korea
- Author
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Jae Kap Lee, Chang Yong Yoon, Yongsun Jang, Hyun Jin Kim, Jin Yong Kim, Sung Won Park, Jong Hun Kim, Boram Han, Jae Bum So, Yoon Ju Oh, Yun Ok Park, Hae-Kwan Cheong, and Ah-Young Lim
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Microbiology (medical) ,medicine.medical_specialty ,030106 microbiology ,Respiratory System ,Natural history ,RT-PCR ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 ,medicine.disease_cause ,Gastroenterology ,Asymptomatic ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Interquartile range ,Internal medicine ,Republic of Korea ,medicine ,Humans ,Viral load ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Viral shedding ,Respiratory system ,Survival analysis ,Coronavirus ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,COVID-19 ,General Medicine ,Virus Shedding ,Infectious Diseases ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,RNA, Viral ,medicine.symptom ,business ,Respiratory tract - Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the duration and peak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 shedding as infectivity markers for determining the isolation period. METHODS: A total of 2,558 upper respiratory tract (URT) and lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens from 138 patients with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease were analyzed. Measurements of sequential viral loads were aggregated using the cubic spline smoothing function of a generalized additive model. The time to negative conversion was compared between symptom groups using survival analysis. RESULTS: In URT samples, viral RNA levels peaked on day 4 after symptom onset and rapidly decreased until day 10 for both E and RdRp genes, whereas those in LRT samples immediately peaked from symptom onset and decreased until days 15.6 and 15.0 for E and RdRp genes, respectively. Median (interquartile range) time to negative conversion was significantly longer in symptomatic (18.0 [13.0-25.0] days) patients than in asymptomatic (13.0 [9.5-17.5] days) patients. The more types of symptoms a patient had, the longer the time to negative conversion. CONCLUSIONS: The viral load rapidly changes depending on the time after symptom onset; the viral shedding period may be longer with more clinical symptoms. Different isolation policies should be applied depending on disease severity.
- Published
- 2021