1. Interpretable Machine Learning Model to Predict Rupture of Small Intracranial Aneurysms and Facilitate Clinical Decision
- Author
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WeiGen Xiong, HongWei Fan, XueMei Li, LeHeng Guo, TingTing Chen, Lan Xiang, JianJun Zou, Zhihong Zhao, Yajie Shan, Ying-Bin Li, Zheng Zhao, and Dong Chu
- Subjects
Computer science ,business.industry ,Artificial intelligence ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,business ,Clinical decision ,computer - Abstract
Estimating the rupture risk of small intracranial aneurysms (IAs) to determine whether to treat is difficult but crucial. We aimed to construct and external validation a convenient machine learning (ML) model for assessing the rupture risk of small IAs.1004 patients with small IAs recruited from two hospitals were included in our retrospective research. The patients at hospital 1 were stratified into training (70%) and internal validation set (30%) randomly, and the patients at hospital 2 were used for external validation. We selected predictive features using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method, and constructed five ML models applying diverse algorithms including random forest classifier (RFC), categorical boosting (CatBoost), support vector machine (SVM) with linear kernel, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis provided interpretation for the best ML model.The training, internal and external validation cohorts included 658, 282, and 64 IAs, respectively. The best performance was presented by SVM as AUC of 0.817 in the internal [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.769-0.866] and 0.893 in the external (95% CI, 0.808-0.979) validation cohorts, overperformed than the PHASES score significantly (all P < 0.001). SHAP analysis showed maximum size, location and irregular shape were the top three important features to predict rupture. Our SVM model based on readily accessible features presented satisfying ability of discrimination in predicting the rupture IAs with small size. Morphological parameters made important contributions to prediction result.
- Published
- 2021
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