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Objectives This study aimed to investigate whether the profit margins of pharmaceuticals would influence the outcome of reimbursement decisions within the Dutch policy context. Methods We conducted a discrete choice experiment among 58 Dutch decision makers. In 20 choice sets, we asked respondents to indicate which of 2 pharmaceutical treatment options they would select for reimbursement. Options were described using 5 attributes (disease severity, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year, health gain, budget impact, and profit margin) with 3 levels each. Additionally, cognitive debriefing questions were presented, and for validation debriefing, interviews were conducted. Choice data were analyzed using mixed logit models, also to calculate marginal effects and choice probabilities. Results Results indicated that the specified levels of profit margins significantly influenced choices made. Decision makers were less likely to reimburse a product with a higher profit margin. The relative importance of profit margins was lower than that of the included traditional health technology assessment criteria, but not negligible. When asked directly, 61% of respondents indicated that profit margin should play a role in reimbursement decision making, although concerns about feasibility and the connection to price negotiations were voiced. Conclusions Our results suggest that if available to decision makers the profit margin of pharmaceutical products would influence reimbursement decisions within the Dutch policy context. Higher profit margins would reduce the likelihood of reimbursement. Whether adding profit margin as an additional, explicit criterion to the health technology assessment decision framework would be feasible and desirable is open to further exploration.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for effective infectious disease outbreak prevention. This could entail installing an integrated, international early warning system, aiming to contain and mitigate infectious diseases outbreaks. The amount of resources governments should spend on such preventive measures can be informed by the value citizens attach to such a system. This was already recognized in 2018, when a contingent valuation willingness to pay (WTP) experiment was fielded, eliciting the WTP for such a system in six European countries. We replicated that experiment in the spring of 2020 to test whether and how WTP had changed during an actual pandemic (COVID-19), taking into account differences in infection rates and stringency of measures by government between countries. Overall, we found significant increases in WTP between the two time points, with mean WTP for an early warning system increasing by about 50% (median 30%), from around €20 to €30 per month. However, there were marked differences between countries and subpopulations, and changes were only partially explained by COVID-19 burden. We discuss possible explanations for and implication of our findings. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01353-6.

Currently, reimbursement decisions based on health technology assessments (HTA) in the Netherlands mostly concern outpatient pharmaceuticals. The Dutch government aspires to broaden the systematic application of full HTA towards other types of health care in order to optimise the content of the basic benefit package. This paper identifies important challenges for broadening the scope of full HTA to other types of health care. Based on a description of the Dutch reimbursement decision-making process, five important characteristics of outpatient pharmaceuticals were identified, which are all relevant to the successful application of HTA: (i) closed reimbursement system, (ii) absence of alternative policy measures, (iii) existence of marketing authorisation, (iv) identifiable and accountable counterparty, and (v) product characteristics. For a selection of other types of health care, which may be subject to HTA more frequently in the future, deviations from these characteristics of outpatient pharmaceuticals are discussed. The implications of such deviations for performing HTA and the decision-making process are highlighted. It is concluded that broadening the application of HTA will require policy makers to meet both important policy-related and methodological challenges. These challenges differ per health care domain, which may inform policy makers which expansions of the current use of HTA are most feasible.

Background and Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken by governments to contain it have affected many aspects of the daily lives of citizens. This study aimed to describe changes in the productivity of paid work and time allocation to paid and unpaid work and leisure resulting from working at home during the pandemic. Methods: A sample of 851 people from the Netherlands who had paid work (≥ 24 h/week) and worked at least 4 hours per week extra at home because of lockdown measures completed a questionnaire during the first COVID-19 lockdown (April 2020). Respondents reported time spent on paid and unpaid work and leisure before and during the lockdown. Productivity was measured in terms of quantity and quality of paid work. Results: On average, respondents spent less time (14%) on paid work and productivity decreased 5.5%. Changes in productivity were associated with the age of children, net income and having a separate home office. Respondents spent more time on unpaid work (27%) and leisure (11%). Women spent more time on unpaid work in absolute but not in relative terms. People with a partner and with children spent more time on unpaid work and less time on leisure. Conclusions: Productivity of paid work decreased, and people reallocated time between paid and unpaid work and leisure during the first COVID-19 lockdown. Changes in time allocation and productivity differed across subgroups. If working at home becomes more common, future research should focus on the long-term impact on productivity and mental and physical health.

_Objectives:_ Decision-making frameworks that draw on economic evaluations increasingly use equity weights to facilitate a more equitable and fair allocation of healthcare resources. These weights can be attached to health gains or reflected in the monetary threshold against which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of (new) health technologies are evaluated. Currently applied weights are based on different definitions of disease severity and do not account for age-related preferences in society. However, age has been shown to be an important equity-relevant characteristic. This study examines the willingness to pay (WTP) for health-related quality of life (QOL) gains in relation to the disease severity and age of patients, and the outcome of the disease. _Methods:_ We obtained WTP estimates by applying contingent-valuation tasks in a representative sample of the public in The Netherlands (n = 2023). We applied random-effects generalized least squares regression models to estimate the effect of patients’ disease severity and age, size of QOL gains, disease outcome (full recovery/death 1 year after falling ill), and respondent characteristics on the WTP. _Results:_ Respondents’WTP was higher for more severely ill and younger patients and for larger-sized QOL gains, but lower for patients who died. However, the relations were nonlinear and context dependent. Respondents with a lower age, who were male, had a higher household income, and a higher QOL stated a higher WTP for QOL gains. _Conclusions:_ Our results suggest that—if the aim is to align resource-allocation decisions in healthcare with societal preferences—currently applied equity weights do not suffice.

Objectives Medical devices are potentially good candidates for coverage with evidence development (CED) schemes, as clinical data at market entry are often sparse and (cost-)effectiveness depends on real-world use. The objective of this research was to explore the diffusion of CED schemes for devices in Europe, and the factors that favour or hamper their utilization. Methods We conducted structured interviews with 25 decision-makers from 22 European countries to explore the characteristics of existing CED programmes for devices, and how decision makers perceived 13 pre-identified challenges associated with initiating and operating CED schemes for devices. We also collected data on individual schemes that were either initiated or still ongoing in the last 5 years. Results We identified seven countries with CED programmes for devices and 78 ongoing schemes. The characteristics of CED programmes varied across countries, including eligibility criteria, roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, funding arrangements, and type of decisions being contemplated at the outset of each scheme. We observed a high variability in how decision makers perceived CED-related challenges possibly reflecting country-specific arrangements and different experiences with CED. One general finding across all countries was that relatively little attention was paid to the evaluation of schemes, both during and at their completion. Conclusions CED programmes for devices with different characteristics exist in Europe. Decision-makers’ perceptions differ on the challenges associated with these schemes. More exchange of knowledge and experience will help decision makers anticipate the likely challenges in CED schemes for devices, and to learn from good practices existing elsewhere.

BACKGROUND: When vaccines increase longevity, vaccinated people may experience costs and benefits during added life-years. These future benefits and costs may include increased productivity as well as medical and non-medical costs. Such impacts should be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) of vaccines but are often omitted. Here, we illustrate the impact of including future costs on the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pneumococcus disease. We emphasize the relevance of differentiating cost estimates between risk groups.METHODS: We updated an existing Dutch CEA of vaccination against pneumococcus disease with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) to include all future medical and non-medical costs. We linked costs by age and risk with survival information and estimates of cases prevented per vaccination strategy based on the original study to calculate the impact of inclusion. Future medical costs were adjusted for relevant risk groups.RESULTS: For the base-case strategy, the original incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of PVC13 was €9,157 per quality adjusted life-year (QALY). Including all future medical costs increased the ICER to €28,540 per QALY. Also including future non-medical costs resulted in an ICER of €45,691 per QALY. The impact of future medical costs varied considerably per risk group and generally increased with age.DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This study showed a substantial effect of the inclusion of future costs on the ICER of vaccinating with PCV13. Especially when lives of people with underlying health conditions are extended, the impact of future medical costs is large. This inclusion may make vaccination a less attractive option, especially in relation to low thresholds as often applied for prevention. Although this raises important questions, ignoring these real future costs may lead to an inefficient use of healthcare resources. Our results may imply that prices for some vaccines need to be lowered to be cost-effective.

INTRODUCTION: Performance-based risk-sharing agreements (PBRSAs), between payers, health care providers, and technology manufacturers can be useful when there is uncertainty about the (cost-) effectiveness of a new technology or service. However, they can be challenging to design and implement. AREAS COVERED: A total of 18 performance-based agreements were identified through a literature review. All but two of the agreements identified were pay-for-performance schemes, agreed between providers and payers at the national level. No examples were found of agreements between health care providers and manufacturers at the local level. The potential for these local agreements was illustrated by hypothetical case studies of water quality management and an integrated chronic kidney disease program. EXPERT OPINION: Performance-based risk-sharing agreements can work to the advantage of patients, health care providers, payers, and technology manufacturers, particularly if they facilitate the introduction of technologies or systems of care that might not have been introduced otherwise. However, the design, conduct, and implementation of PBRSAs in renal care pose a number of challenges. Efforts should be made to overcome these challenges so that more renal care patients can benefit from technological advances and new models of care.

Background There is debate around the composition of life years gained from smoking elimination. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to synthesize existing evidence on the effect of smoking status on health expectancy and to examine whether smoking elimination leads to compression of morbidity. Methods Five databases were systematically searched for peer-reviewed articles. Studies that presented quantitative estimates of health expectancy for smokers and non-/never-smokers were eligible for inclusion. Studies were searched, selected and reviewed by two reviewers who extracted the relevant data and assessed the risk of bias of the included articles independently. Results The search identified 2491 unique records, whereof 20 articles were eligible for inclusion (including 26 cohorts). The indicators used to measure health included disability/activity limitations (n=9), health-related quality of life (EQ-5D) (n=2), weighted disabilities (n=1), self-rated health (n=9), chronic diseases (n=6), cardiovascular diseases (n=4) and cognitive impairment (n=1). Available evidence showed consistently that non-/never-smokers experience more healthy life years throughout their lives than smokers. Findings were inconsistent on the effect of smoking on the absolute number of unhealthy life years. Findings concerning the time proportionally spent unhealthy were less heterogeneous: nearly all included articles reported that non-/never-smokers experience relatively less unhealthy life years (e.g. relative compression of morbidity). Conclusions Support for the relative compression of morbidity due to smoking elimination was evident. Further research is needed into the absolute compression of morbidity hypothesis since current evidence is mixed, and methodology of studies needs to be harmonized.

Objectives This study aimed (1) to perform a systematic literature review of instruments for measuring productivity loss of paid and unpaid work and (2) to assess the suitability (in terms of identification, measurement, and valuation) of these instruments for use in health economic evaluations from a societal perspective. Methods Articles published from 2018 were sourced from PubMed/Medline, PsycInfo, Embase, and Econlit. Using 2 separate search strategies, eligible economic evaluations and validation studies were selected and unique measurement instruments identified. A data-extraction form was developed by studying previous literature and consulting an international panel of experts in the field of productivity costs. This data-extraction form was applied to assess the suitability of instruments for use in economic evaluations. Results A total of 5982 articles were retrieved from the databases, of which 99 economic evaluations and 9 validation studies were included in the review. A total of 42 unique measurement instruments were identified. Nine instruments provided quantified measures of absenteeism, presenteeism, and unpaid work. Five instruments supplied the necessary information to enable the use of at least 1 common valuation method. The Health and Labour Questionnaire-Short Form, Health and Labour Questionnaire, and Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire met both criteria. Nevertheless, the developers replaced the Health and Labour Questionnaire-Short Form and Health and Labour Questionnaire by the more recently developed Institute for Medical Technology Assessment Productivity Cost Questionnaire. Conclusions Although many instruments for measuring productivity loss were identified, most were not suitable for capturing productivity changes for economic evaluations from a societal perspective. Future research can benefit from this study by making an informed instrument choice for the measurement of productivity loss of paid and unpaid work.

Objectives: Cost-effectiveness analyses typically require measurement of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to estimate quality-adjusted life-years. Challenges with measuring HRQoL arise in the context of episodic conditions if patients are less likely—or even unable—to complete surveys when having disease symptoms. This article explored whether HRQoL measured at regular time intervals adequately reflects the HRQoL of people with epilepsy (PWE). Methods: Follow-up data from the Epilepsy Support Dog Evaluation study on the (cost-)effectiveness of seizure dogs were used in which HRQoL is measured in 25 PWE with the EQ-5D at baseline and every 3 months thereafter. Seizure count is recorded daily using a seizure diary. Regression models were employed to explore whether PWE were more likely to complete the HRQoL survey on a good day (ie, when seizures are absent or low in frequency compared with other days) and to provide an estimate of the impact of reporting HRQoL on a good day on EQ-5D utility scores. Results: A total of 111 HRQoL measurements were included in the analyses. Regression analyses indicated that the day of reporting HRQoL was associated with a lower seizure count (P

Background Priority setting in healthcare can be guided by both efficiency and equity principles. The latter principle is often explicated in terms of disease severity and, for example, defined as absolute or proportional shortfall. These severity operationalizations do not explicitly consider patients' age, even though age may be inextricably related to severity and an equity-relevant characteristic. Objective This study examines the relative strength of societal preferences for severity and age for informing allocation decisions in healthcare. Methods We elicited preferences for severity and age in a representative sample of the public in The Netherlands (N = 1025) by applying choice tasks and person-trade-off tasks in a design in which severity levels and ages varied both separately and simultaneously between patient groups. We calculated person trade-off ratios and, in addition, applied ordinary least squares regression models to aid interpretation of the ratios when both severity and age varied. Results Respondents attached a higher weight (median of ratios: 2.46-3.50) to reimbursing treatment for relatively more severely ill and younger patients when preferences for both were elicited separately. When preferences were elicited simultaneously, respondents attached a higher weight (median of ratios: 1.98 and 2.42) to reimbursing treatment for relatively younger patients, irrespective of patients’ severity levels. Ratios varied depending on severity level and age and were generally higher when the difference in severity and age was larger between groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that severity operationalizations and equity weights based on severity alone may not align with societal preferences. Adjusting decision-making frameworks to reflect age-related societal preferences should be considered.

Healthcare expenditures will continue to increase in the coming years, raising questions regarding the sustainability of the Dutch healthcare system and solidarity, but also about the optimal use of available resources. Given the issues in the oral care sector, attention for economic insights is appropriate there as well. Relevant issues in this regard are the design of the basic and supplementary health insurance schemes for oral care, the market structure and financing of oral care, questions regarding task shifting in oral care, as well as socio-economic inequalities in oral health. A closer cooperative relationship between oral care and the health economy can help in achieving an optimal and sustainable organisation of the Dutch oral care sector. In other words, an organisation contributing in an efficient and fair way to good oral care for all Dutch citizens.De zorguitgaven zullen de komende jaren blijven stijgen en daarmee dringen zich vragen op over de houdbaarheid van het Nederlandse zorgstelsel en de solidariteit, maar ook over het optimale gebruik van de beschikbare middelen. Gezien de vraagstukken binnen de mondzorg is ook daarin aandacht voor economische inzichten op zijn plaats. Hierbij valt te denken aan de vormgeving van de basisverzekering en de aanvullende mondzorgverzekering, de marktstructuur, de wijze van financiering, vragen omtrent taakherschikking in de mondzorg, en ook de sociaal-economische ongelijkheid in de mondgezondheid. Een hechtere samenwerking tussen mondzorg en gezondheidseconomie kan helpen om te komen tot een optimale, duurzame inrichting van de Nederlandse mondzorg. Dat wil zeggen, een inrichting die op een doelmatige en eerlijke manier bijdraagt aan een goede mondzorg voor alle Nederlanders.

Healthcare interventions that improve the health of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have the potential to affect the health of caregivers. This study compares the three-level EuroQoL-5 Dimension (EQ-5D-3L) and the Short Form-6 Dimension (SF-6D) in their ability to value such spillover effects in caregivers. Clinical data collected from two Autism Treatment Network (ATN) sites was combined with survey data of caregivers of children diagnosed with ASD. Caregivers completed instruments by proxy describing child health and completed the EQ-5D-3L and SF-6D preference-weighted instruments to describe their own health. There was a strong correlation between the health utility scores of the two preference-weighted instruments (ρ = 0.6172, p

Background Interventions in health care often not only have an efect on patients, but also on their informal caregivers.Caregiving can have a profound impact on the health and wellbeing of carers. Ignoring these spillovers in economic evaluations risks labelling interventions mistakenly as cost-efective, at the expense of informal caregivers.Objective This paper investigates willingness-to-accept (WTA) values for an hour of informal care, corrected for positiveand negative impacts of informal care, to facilitate the inclusion of informal care hours on the cost side of economic evaluations without double-counting spillover efects.Methods A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among a representative sample of the adult population in theNetherlands (n=552) in September 2011. An experimental design minimizing the D-error was used to construct choicesets with two unlabelled alternatives with the attributes ‘hours caregiving’, ‘monetary compensation for caregiving’ andseven impacts of caregiving. To operationalize the random utility model, we used a panel mixed multinomial logit (MMNL)parameter model. For calculation of WTA, we used both population-level parameters and individual-level parameters.Results The mean WTA for an additional hour of informal care, corrected for positive and negative impacts of informal care,was €14.57. The signs of the coefcients were all in the expected directions.Conclusions This study reports a preference-based monetary value for informal care, corrected for other impacts. This valuation facilitates the inclusion of informal care hours on the cost side in economic evaluations without double-counting anyspillover efects included on the efects side.

Background We aimed to investigate the burden of informal care in Hungary (HU), Poland (PL) and Slovenia (SI). Methods A cross-sectional online survey was performed involving representative samples of 1000 respondents per country. Caregiving situations were explored; health status of informal caregivers/care recipients and care-related quality of life were assessed using the EQ-5D-5L and CarerQol-7D. Results The proportion of caregivers was (HU/PL/SI) 14.9, 15.0 and 9.6%, respectively. Their mean age was 56.1, 45.6 and 48.0, and the average time spent on informal care was 27.6, 35.5 and 28.8 h/week. Chronic care was dominant (> 1 year: 78.5%, 72.0%, 74.0%) and care recipients were mainly (own/in-law) parents. Average EQ-5D-5L scores of care recipients were 0.53, 0.49 and 0.52. For Poland and Slovenia, EQ-5D-5L scores of informal care providers were signifcantly lower than of other respondents. Average CarerQol-7D scores were (HU/PL/SI) 76.0, 69.6 and 70.9, and CarerQol-VAS was 6.8, 6.4 and 6.6, respectively. Overall, 89, 87, and 84% of caregivers felt some or a lot fulflment related to caring. Problems with combining tasks with daily activities were most important in Hungary and Slovenia. Women had a higher probability of being a caregiver in Hungary. CarerQol-7D scores were signifcantly associated with caregivers’ EQ-5D-5L scores. In Hungary and Poland, living in a larger household was positively, while caring for patients with mental health problems was negatively associated with CarerQol-7D scores. Conclusions These frst results from the Central and Eastern European region using preference-based measures for the evaluation of informal care can serve as a valuable input for health economic analyses.

Health gains are increasingly weighted in economic evaluations of new health technologies to guide resource-allocation decisions in healthcare. In Norway and the Netherlands weights are, for example, based on the disease severity of patients. In England and Wales, a higher weight is attached to quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from life-extending end-of-life (EOL) treatments. Societal preferences for QALY gains in EOL patients are increasingly examined. Although the available evidence suggests that gains in health-related quality of life (QOL) may be preferred to gains in life expectancy (LE), little is known about the influence of EOL patients’ age on these preferences. In this study, we examine the willingness to pay (WTP) for QOL and LE gains in EOL patients of different ages in a sample (n = 803) of the general public in the Netherlands. We found that WTP was relatively higher for QOL and LE gains in younger EOL patients. We further found indications suggesting that WTP may be relatively higher for QOL gains at the EOL, except for patients aged 20 for whom we observed a higher WTP for LE gains. Our results may inform discussions on attaching differential weights to QOL and LE gains in EOL patients of different ages with the objective to better align resource-allocation decisions with societal preferences.

It was highlighted that in the original article [1] the graphs in Fig. 1 were duplicated. This Correction article shows the correct Fig. 1. The original article has been updated. Author details 1Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, P.O. Box 1738, 3000, DR, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 2Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Introduction: The new European Union (EU) Regulations on medical devices and on in vitro diagnostics provide manufacturers and Notified Bodies with new tools to improve pre-market and post-market clinical evidence generation especially for high-risk products but fail to indicate what type of clinical evidence is appropriate at each stage of the whole lifecycle of medical devices. In this paper we address: i) the appropriate level and timing of clinical evidence throughout the lifecycle of high-risk implantable medical devices; and ii) how the clinical evidence generation ecosystem could be adapted to optimize patient access. Areas covered: The European regulatory and health technology assessment (HTA) contexts are reviewed, in relation to the lifecycle of high-risk medical devices and clinical evidence generation recommended by international network or endorsed by regulatory and HTA agencies in different jurisdictions. Expert opinion: Four stages are relevant for clinical evidence generation: i) pre-clinical, pre-market; ii) clinical, pre-market; iii) diffusion, post-market; and iv) obsolescence & replacement, post-market. Each stage has its own evaluation needs and specific studies are recommended to generate the appropriate evidence. Effective lifecycle planning requires anticipation of what evidence will be needed at each stage

The Healthy Aging Index (HAI), an index of physiological aging, has been demonstrated to predicts mortality, morbidity and disability. We studied the longitudinal development of the HAI to identify aging trajectories and evaluated the role of baseline sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors of the trajectories. Four measurements with intervals of 5 years were included from the Doetinchem Cohort Study. The HAI reflects levels of systolic blood pressure, non-fasting plasma glucose levels, global cognitive functioning, plasma creatinine levels and lung functioning. The HAI score ranges from 0 to 10: higher scores indicate a better health profile. Latent class mixture modelling was used to model within-person change and to identify aging trajectories. Area under the curve was calculated per trajectory to estimate total healthy years. In total, 2324 women and 2013 men were included. One HAI trajectory was identified for women, and two trajectories for men, labelled 'gradual' aging (76%) and 'early' aging (24%). Men who were medium/high educated, below 36 years at baseline, complied with guidelines on physical activity and were not obese in any round were associated with increased odds to 'gradual' aging of 1.46 (CI: 1.18-1.81), 1.93 (CI: 1.42-2.62), 1.26 (1.02-1.57) and 1.76 (1.32-2.35), respectively. Between 30 and 70 years of age, men in the 'early' aging trajectory had the least healthy years (29.6 years), followed by women (30.1 years), and 'gradual' aging men (34.7 years). This study emphasizes that 'physiological aging' is not only an issue of older ages. Between 30 and 70 years of age, 'early' aging men and women had approximately five healthy years less compared to 'gradual' aging men. Lifestyle factors (e.g. nutrition and physical activity) seem to play an important role in optimal aging.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in many parts of the world has posed serious concerns to the public health. During this period of crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO) reminds all countries and communities that the spread of this virus can be significantly slowed or even reversed through the implementation of robust containment and control measures. The WHO has also asked the public to be careful while reading and spreading health recommendations from untrustworthy online sources of information. Myths and misbeliefs about the prevention and spread of COVID-19 not only create global panic but also pose risks to people's lives and public health in general. Rampant misinformation on the disease slows down the efforts of public health bodies to contain the outbreak. Therefore, the role of public health bodies in communicating the right message and in the right form to the public is crucial. In our study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of communication strategies used by international and national public health authorities to inform the public on COVID-19 risks and prevention. In particular, we conduct a survey experiment on a large sample (N = 4000) of adults from seven European countries to test the efficacy of public health messages in a form of prevention and corrective information provision. The study seeks to investigate how people's risk perceptions and behaviors change subject to the preventive information provision or treatment with the information countering widely spread misperceptions about the COVID-19 as compared to the control group. The findings of this research will be relevant for policymakers and public health professionals in the development of effective communication strategies during disease outbreaks. Key messages Risk perceptions towards COVID-19 and their determinants across European countries are unknown. Unclear effectiveness of public health messages in a form of prevention and corrective information provision.

To understand the public sentiment toward the measures used by policymakers for COVID-19 containment, a survey among representative samples of the population in seven European countries was carried out in the first two weeks of April 2020. The study addressed people's support for containment policies, worries about COVID-19 consequences, and trust in sources of information. Citizens were overall satisfied with their government's response to the pandemic; however, the extent of approval differed across countries and policy measures. A north-south divide in public opinion was noticeable across the European states. It was particularly pronounced for intrusive policy measures, such as mobile data use for movement tracking, economic concerns, and trust in the information from the national government. Considerable differences in people's attitudes were noticed within countries, especially across individual regions and age groups. The findings suggest that the epidemic acts as a stressor, causing health and economic anxieties even in households that were not directly affected by the virus. At the same time, the burden of stress was unequally distributed across regions and age groups. Based on the data collected, we draw lessons from the containment stage and identify several insights that can facilitate the design of lockdown exit strategies and future containment policies so that a high level of compliance can be expected. Key messages Citizens were overall satisfied with their government's response to the COVID-19 outbreak. A north-south pattern in public opinion was observed across the European states.

Early warning systems for infectious diseases and foodborne outbreaks are designed with the aim of increasing the health safety of citizens. As a first step to determine whether investing in such a system offers value for money, this study used contingent valuation to estimate people’s willingness to pay for such an early warning system in six European countries. The contingent valuation experiment was conducted through online questionnaires administered in February to March 2018 to cross-sectional, representative samples in the UK, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, and The Netherlands, yielding a total sample size of 3140. Mean willingness to pay for an early warning system was €21.80 (median €10.00) per household per month. Pooled regression results indicate that willingness to pay increased with household income and risk aversion, while they decreased with age. Overall, our results indicate that approximately 80–90% of people would be willing to pay for an increase in health safety in the form of an early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks. However, our results have to be interpreted in light of the usual drawbacks of willingness to pay experiments. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-020-01171-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background The 2014–2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was the largest EVD outbreak recorded, which has triggered calls for investments that would facilitate an even earlier response. This study aims to estimate the costs and health effects of earlier interventions in Sierra Leone. Methods A deterministic and a stochastic compartment model describing the EVD outbreak was estimated using a variety of data sources. Costs and Disability-Adjusted Life Years were used to estimate and compare scenarios of earlier interventions. Results Four weeks earlier interventions would have averted 10,257 (IQR 4353–18,813) cases and 8835 (IQR 3766–16,316) deaths. This implies 456 (IQR 194–841) thousand DALYs and 203 (IQR 87–374) million $US saved. The greatest losses occurred outside the healthcare sector. Conclusions Earlier response in an Ebola outbreak saves lives and costs. Investments in healthcare system facilitating such responses are needed and can offer good value for money.

Objective The aim of this study is to identify items of economic evaluation guidelines that are frequently not complied within obstetric economic evaluations and to search for reasons for non‐adherence. Design Scoping review and qualitative study. Setting Literature on economic evaluations in obstetric care and interviews with experts. Population or sample The sample included 229 scientific articles and five experts. Methods A systematic literature search was performed. All types of literature about economic evaluations in obstetric care were included. The adherence to guidelines was assessed and articles were qualitatively analysed on additional information about reasons for non‐adherence. Issues that arose from the scoping review were discussed with experts. Main outcome measures Adherence to guideline items of the included economic evaluations studies. Analytical themes describing reasons for non‐adherence, resulting from qualitative analysis of articles and interviews with experts. Results A total of 184 economic evaluations and 45 other type of articles were included. Guideline items frequently not complied with were time horizon, type of economic evaluation and effect measure. Reasons for non‐adherence had to do with paucity of long‐term health data and assessing and combining outcomes for mother and child resulting from obstetric interventions. Conclusions This study identified items of guidelines that are frequently not complied with and the reasons behind this. The results are a starting point for a broad consensus building on how to deal with these challenges that can result in special guidance for the conduct of economic evaluations in obstetric care. Tweetable abstract Non‐adherence to guidelines in obstetric economic evaluation studies: the difficulties in detail., Tweetable abstract Non‐adherence to guidelines in obstetric economic evaluation studies: the difficulties in detail.

Purpose The pressure on healthcare budgets remains high, partially due to the ageing population. Economic evaluation can be a helpful tool to inform resource allocation in publicly financed systems. Such evaluations frequently use health-related outcome measures. However, in areas such as care of older people, improving health outcomes is not necessarily the main focus of care interventions and broader outcome measures, including outcomes for those providing informal care, may be preferred when evaluating such interventions. This paper validates a recently introduced well-being measure, the ICECAP-O, in a population of informal carers for people with dementia from eight European countries. Methods Convergent and discriminant validity tests were performed to validate the ICECAP-O using data obtained in a sample of 451 respondents from Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. These respondents completed a number of standardized questionnaires within the framework of the Actifcare project. Results The ICECAP-O performed well among informal carers, in terms of both convergent and discriminant validity. In the multivariate analysis, it was found to be significantly associated with the age of the person with dementia, EQ-5D-5L health problem index of the person with dementia, carer–patient relationship, care recipient CDR, carer LSNS Score, the PAI score, and Perseverance Time. Conclusion The ICECAP-O appears to be a valid measure of well-being in informal carers for people with dementia. The ICECAP-O may therefore be useful as an outcome measure in economic evaluations of interventions aimed at such informal carers, when these aim to improve well-being beyond health.

Appropriate discounting rules in economic evaluations have received considerable attention in the literature and in national guidelines for economic evaluations. Rightfully so, as discounting can be quite influential on the outcomes of economic evaluations. The most prominent controversies regarding discounting involve the basis for and height of the discount rate, whether costs and effects should be discounted at the same rate, and whether discount rates should decline or stay constant over time. Moreover, the choice for discount rules depends on the decision context one adopts as the most relevant. In this article, we review these issues and debates, and describe and discuss the current discounting recommendations of the countries publishing their national guidelines. We finish the article by proposing a research agenda.

The time trade-off (TTO) method is widely used to obtain quality of life scores for health states, but its validity is not uncontested, for instance because TTO values for similar health states can differ substantially between studies. This could be caused by differences between studies in how the procedure is applied, but could also relate to differences in study samples.

The increasing demand for healthcare and the resulting pressure on available budgets render priority setting inevitable. If societies aim to improve health and distribute health(care) fairly, equity-efficiency trade-offs are necessary. In the Netherlands, proportional shortfall (PS) was introduced to quantify necessity of care, allowing a direct equity-efficiency trade-off. This study describes the history and application of PS in the Netherlands and examines the theoretical and empirical support for PS as well as its current role in healthcare decision making. We reviewed the international literature on PS from 2001 onwards, along with publicly accessible meeting reports from the Dutch appraisal committee, Adviescommissie Pakket (ACP), from 2013 to 2016. Our results indicate that there is support for the decision model in which necessity is quantified and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are evaluated against associated monetary reference values. The model enables a uniform framework for priority setting across all healthcare sectors. Although consensus about the application of PS has not yet been reached and alternative ways to quantify necessity were found in ACP reports, PS has increasingly been applied in decision making since 2015. However, empirical support for PS is limited and it may insufficiently reflect societal preferences regarding age and reducing lifetime-health inequalities. Hence, further investigation into refining PS-or exploration of another approach-appears warranted for operationalising the equity-efficiency trade-off.

Health care systems are challenged in allocating scarce health care resources, which are typically insufficient to fulfil all health care wants and needs. One criterion for priority setting may be the 'acceptable health' approach, which suggests that society may want to assign higher priority to health benefits in people with "unacceptable" than in people with "acceptable" health. A level of acceptable health then serves as a reference point for priority setting. Empirical research has indicated that people may be able and willing to define health states as "unacceptable" or "acceptable", but little attention has been given to the normative implications of evaluating health benefits in relation to a reference level of acceptable health. The current paper aims to address this gap by relating insights from the distributive justice literature, i.e. the sufficientarian literature, to the acceptable health approach, as we argue that these approaches are related. We specifically focus on the implications of an 'acceptability' approach for priority weighting of health benefits, derived from sufficientarian reasoning and debates, and assess the moral implications of such weighting.

Background Limited health care budgets and population aging result in a need to compare care services on their benefits and costs. Because services for older people often aim to improve multiple life aspects, valid measures are needed to examine their benefits on individuals' health and well-being simultaneously. Two measures may meet this end: the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit (ASCOT) and the ICEpop CAPability measure for Older people (ICECAP-O). Objectives To compare the validity of both measures, the ASCOT and the ICECAP-O. Methods A sampling agency gathered cross-sectional data in May 2015. Using exploratory factor analysis, the underlying factor structure of the ASCOT and the ICECAP-O was examined for the first time. Convergent and discriminant validity in relation to health measures (five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire, EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale, Barthel Index, and Geriatric Depression Scale-15) and well-being measures (Older People's Quality of Life Questionnaire-13, Satisfaction with Life Scale, and Cantril's Ladder) were tested using Spearman rank correlations and variance analysis. Results The ASCOT and the ICECAP-O tapped into a shared factor, whereas both measures also loaded on two separate factors. The ASCOT and the ICECAP-O correlated highly with the health and well-being measures, but the correlation with the physical health measure Barthel Index was moderate. Both measures discriminated between subgroups of respondents. Conclusions The ASCOT and the ICECAP-O seem promising measures to evaluate well-being among older people, whereby the ASCOT seems more specific to social care–related outcomes. The performance of both measures in other respondent groups and countries, and their relation to physical health, need to be further examined before their use in economic evaluations can be recommended.

Objectives Recent debates in the Netherlands on health care priority setting have focused on the relative value of gains generated by life-extending medicines for people with a terminal illness, mostly new cancer drugs. These treatments are generally expensive, provide relatively small health gains, and therefore usually do not meet common cost per QALY thresholds. Nevertheless, these drugs may be provided under the assumption that there is public support for making a special case for treatments for people with a terminal illness. This study investigated the views of the public in the Netherlands on a range of equity and efficiency considerations relevant to priority setting and examines whether there is public support for making such a special case. Methods Using Q methodology, three viewpoints on important principles for priority setting were identified. Data were collected through ranking exercises conducted by 46 members of the general public in the Netherlands, including 11 respondents with personal experience with cancer. Results Viewpoint 1 emphasized that people have equal rights to healthcare and opposed priority setting on any ground. Viewpoint 2 emphasized that the care for terminal patients should at all times respect the patients' quality of life, which sometimes means refraining from invasive treatments. Viewpoint 3 had a strong focus on effective and efficient care and had no moral objection against priority setting under certain circumstances. Conclusions Overall, we found little public support for the assumption that health gains in terminally ill patients are more valuable than those in other patients. This implies that the assumption that society is prepared to pay more for health gains in people who have only a short period of lifetime left does not correspond with societal preferences in the Netherlands.

Background Health behaviours like smoking, nutrition, alcohol consumption and physical activity (SNAP) are often studied separately, while combinations can be particularly harmful. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of lifestyle choices by studying the prevalence of (combinations of) unhealthy SNAP behaviours in relation to attitudinal factors (time orientation, risk attitude) and subjective health (self-rated health, life expectancy) among the adult Dutch population. Methods In total 1006 respondents, representative of the Dutch adult population (18–75 years) in terms of sex, age, and education, were drawn from a panel in 2016. They completed an online questionnaire. Groups comparisons and logistic regression analyses (crude and adjusted) were applied to analyse (combinations of) SNAP behaviours in relation to time orientation (using the Consideration of Future Consequences scale comprising Immediate (CFC-I) and Future (CFC-F) scales) and risk attitude (Health-Risk Attitude Scale; HRAS-6), as well as subjective health (visual analogue scale and subjective life expectancy). Results In the analyses, 989 respondents (51% men, average 52 years, 22% low, 48% middle, and 30% high educated) were included. About 8% of respondents engaged in four unhealthy SNAP behaviours and 18% in none. Self-rated health varied from 5.5 to 7.6 in these groups, whilst subjective life expectancy ranged between 73.7 and 85.5 years. Logistic regression analyses, adjusted for socio-demographic variables, showed that smoking, excessive drinking and combining two or more unhealthy SNAP behaviours were significantly associated with CFC-I scores, which increased the odds by 30%, 18% and 19%, respectively. Only physical inactivity was significantly associated with CFC-F scores, which increased the odds by 20%. Three out of the four SNAP behaviours were significantly associated with HRAS-6, which increased the odds between 6% and 12%. An unhealthy diet, excessive drinking, and physical inactivity were significantly associated with SRH, which decreased the odds by 11%. Only smoking was significantly associated with subjective life expectancy, which decreased the odds by 3%. Conclusion Our findings suggest that attitudinal factors and subjective health are relevant in the context of understanding unhealthy SNAP behaviours and their clustering. This emphasizes the relevance of a holistic approach to health prevention rather than focusing on a single unhealthy SNAP behaviour.

New medical technologies that prolong life result in additional health care use in life years gained. Some of these costs in life years gained are considered to be related to the intervention while other costs are considered unrelated. Here, we argue that ignoring these so-called future medical costs in cost effectiveness analysis is contrary to common sense, results in lost health and fails to inform decision makers for whom cost effectiveness is supposed to serve.

In this editorial, we consider the vexing issue of 'unrelated future costs' (for example, the costs of caring for people with dementia or kidney failure after preventing their deaths from a heart attack). The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance is not to take such costs into account in technology appraisals. However, standard appraisal practice involves modelling the benefits of those unrelated technologies. We argue that there is a sound principled reason for including both the costs and benefits of unrelated care. Changing this practice would have material consequences for decisions about reimbursing particular technologies, and we urge future research to understand this better. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Productivity costs can strongly impact cost-effectiveness outcomes. This study investigated the impact in the context of expensive hospital drugs. This study aimed to: (1) investigate the effect of productivity costs on cost-effectiveness outcomes, (2) determine whether economic evaluations of expensive drugs commonly include productivity costs related to paid and unpaid work, and (3) explore potential reasons for excluding productivity costs from the economic evaluation. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify economic evaluations of 33 expensive drugs. We analysed whether evaluations included productivity costs and whether inclusion or exclusion was related to the study population’s age, health and national health economic guidelines. The impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes was assessed in studies that included productivity costs. Of 249 identified economic evaluations of expensive drugs, 22 (9 %) included productivity costs related to paid work. One study included unpaid productivity. Mostly, productivity cost exclusion could not be explained by the study population’s age and health status, but national guidelines appeared influential. Productivity costs proved often highly influential. This study indicates that productivity costs in economic evaluations of expensive hospital drugs are commonly and inconsistently ignored in economic evaluations. This warrants caution in interpreting and comparing the results of these evaluations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10198-015-0685-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Many countries have national guidelines for performing economic evaluations in healthcare.1 These guidelines should ensure the comparability and quality of such evaluations, which should facilitate making well informed policy decisions regarding reimbursement of interventions. Given the developments in both the methodology and policy context of economic evaluation of healthcare interventions, these guidelines require periodical revision. Recently, the Dutch National Health Care Institute issued new guidance for economic evaluations in healthcare [1]. The new guidelines update and replace three separately published previous guidelines: those for pharmacoeconomic evaluation (latest version 2006), outcomes research (latest version 2008) as well as the Dutch costing manual (latest version 2010). In this editorial, we highlight the distinguishing features of the new Dutch guidelines. Moreover, we highlight which developments, in our opinion, are desirable in coming updates, but are still in development or controversial.

Including societal preferences in allocation decisions is an important challenge for the health care sector. Here, we present results of a phased discrete choice experiment investigating the impact of various attributes on respondents’ preferences for distribution of health and health care. In addition to the renowned equity principles severity of illness (operationalized as initial health) and fair innings (operationalized as age), some characteristics of beneficiaries (culpability and having dependents) and the disease (rarity) were included in the choice experiment. We used a nested logit model to analyse the data. We found that all selected attributes significantly influenced respondents’ choices. The phased inclusion showed that additional attributes affected respondents’ preferences for previously-included attributes and reduced unobserved variance. Although not all these attributes may be considered relevant for decision making from a normative perspective, including them in choice experiments contributes to our understanding of societal preferences for each single attribute. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

There has been considerable debate on the extent to which future costs should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses of health technologies. In this article, we summarize the theoretical debates and empirical research in this area and highlight the conclusions that can be drawn for current practice. For future related and future unrelated medical costs, the literature suggests that inclusion is required to obtain optimal outcomes from available resources. This conclusion does not depend on the perspective adopted by the decision maker. Future non-medical costs are only relevant when adopting a societal perspective; these should be included if the benefits of non-medical consumption and production are also included in the evaluation. Whether this is the case currently remains unclear, given that benefits are typically quantified in quality-adjusted life-years and only limited research has been performed on the extent to which these (implicitly) capture benefits beyond health. Empirical research has shown that the impact of including future costs can be large, and that estimation of such costs is feasible. In practice, however, future unrelated medical costs and future unrelated non-medical consumption costs are typically excluded from economic evaluations. This is explicitly prescribed in some pharmacoeconomic guidelines. Further research is warranted on the development and improvement of methods for the estimation of future costs. Standardization of methods is needed to enhance the practical applicability of inclusion for the analyst and the comparability of the outcomes of different studies. For future non-medical costs, further research is also needed on the extent to which benefits related to this spending are captured in the measurement and valuation of health benefits, and how to broaden the scope of the evaluation if they are not sufficiently captured.

Traditionally, threshold levels of cost‐effectiveness have been derived from willingness‐to‐pay studies, indicating the consumption value of health (v‐thresholds). However, it has been argued that v‐thresholds need to be supplemented by so‐called k‐thresholds, which are based on the marginal returns to health care. The objective of this research is to estimate a k‐threshold based on the marginal returns to cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospital care in the Netherlands. To estimate a k‐threshold for hospital care on CVD, we proceed in two steps: First, we estimate the impact of hospital spending on mortality using a Bayesian regression modelling framework, using data on CVD mortality and CVD hospital spending by age and gender for the period 1994–2010. Second, we use life tables in combination with quality of life data to convert these estimates into a k‐threshold expressed in euros per quality‐adjusted life year gained. Our base case estimate resulted in an estimate of 41,000 per quality‐adjusted life year gained. In our sensitivity analyses, we illustrated how the incorporation of prior evidence into the estimation pushes estimates downwards. We conclude that our base case estimate of the k‐threshold may serve as a benchmark value for decision making in the Netherlands as well as for future research regarding k‐thresholds.

__Introduction__ Policy makers increasingly need to prioritise between competing health technologies or patient populations. When aiming to align allocation decisions with societal preferences, knowledge and operationalisation of such preferences is indispensable. This study examines the distribution of three views on healthcare priority setting in the Netherlands, labelled "Equal right to healthcare", "Limits to healthcare", and "Effective and efficient healthcare", and their relationship with preferences in willingness to trade-off (WTT) exercises. __Methods__ A survey including four reimbursement scenarios was conducted in a representative sample of the adult population in the Netherlands (n = 261). Respondents were matched to one of the three views based on their agreement with 14 statements on principles for resource allocation. We tested for WTT differences between respondents with different views and applied logit regression models for examining the relationship between preferences and background characteristics, including views. __Results__ Nearly 65% of respondents held the view "Equal right to healthcare", followed by "Limits to healthcare" (22.5%), and "Effective and efficient healthcare" (7.1%). Most respondents (75.9%) expressed WTT in at least one scenario and preferred gains in quality of life over life expectancy, maximising gains over limiting inequality, treating children over elderly, and those with adversity over those with an unhealthy lifestyle. Various background characteristics, including the views, were associated with respondents' preferences. __Conclusions__ Most respondents held an egalitarian view on priority setting, yet the majority was willing to prioritise regardless of their view. Societal views and preferences concerning healthcare priority setting are related. However, respondents' views influence preferences differently in different reimbursement scenarios. As societal views and preferences are heterogeneous and may conflict, aligning allocation decisions with societal preferences remains challenging and any decision may be expected to receive opposition from some group in society.

Health problems may cause decreased productivity among working people. It is unclear if this also applies for people living with HIV (PLWH). This cross-sectional study compares data of PLWH of one of the main HIV treatment centres in the Netherlands (n = 298) to data of the general working population from a previously conducted study (n = 986). We investigate whether productivity at work differs between these groups. The questionnaires used in these studies contained a core of identical questions regarding productivity losses, in the form of absenteeism and presenteeism, over a four-week period and a variety of baseline characteristics, including health status measured with EQ-5D. For PLWH additional clinical data were collected from patient records. From the data, descriptive statistics were computed to characterize the samples. Pearson correlations were used to explore significant associations of productivity with baseline characteristics. A two-part model was used to evaluate both the occurrence and of size of productivity losses in working PLWH and an aggregated sample of PLWH and the general population. It was observed that, on average, total productivity losses do not differ significantly between working PWLH and the general working population, but that the occurrence and size of absenteeism and presenteeism were different. Furthermore, more health problems were associated with higher productivity losses. HIV status was not significantly associated with productivity losses. We conclude that among working people, health status was related to productivity losses but HIV status was not. However, further research is needed into the relation between HIV status and unemployment.

__Introduction__ Increasingly, welfare economic evaluations are used in the context of the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. Many jurisdictions prescribe their use in the context of reimbursement, funding, and/or pricing of new health technologies, especially pharmaceuticals. The fact that the outcomes of such evaluations can infuence actual allocation decisions in healthcare underlines the importance of a sound methodology and an appropriate decision-making process. Fortunately, in both areas progress has been made over the past decades. However, there remains room for further improvement, for instance in fnding appropriate estimates of monetary values of health, developing broader outcome measures than quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), fnding appropriate equity (principles to estimate) weights for health outcomes, and estimating health opportunity costs.

The idea of competition in health care can provoke strong reactions from commentators, with some for and others against. Proponents of competition generally fall into one of two camps: those who believe in the innate value of market-based resource allocation (i.e., a decentralised approach to production and consumption decisions, with prices providing the main signals for such decisions) and those who favour the market more for its potential to correct the failures of government regulation. Both camps typically expect competition to do the following things: strengthen patient choice, stimulate innovation, improve quality, enhance efficiency and control costs — in short, to give people what they want in the least costly way possible. Opponents of competition, in contrast, typically fear it will lead to undesirable outcomes such as a reduction in quality, access to health care based on ability to pay rather than medical need and, as a result, inequity and inefficiency in the distribution of health services. Given these differing views, the European Commission asked its Expert Panel on Effective Ways of Investing in Health to consider if and how competition among health care providers might benefit health systems in the European Union. This article summarises the main findings and conclusions of the panel’s final report [8].1

Background Productivity losses often contribute significantly to the total costs in economic evaluations adopting a societal perspective. Currently, no consensus exists on the measurement and valuation of productivity losses. Objective We aimed to develop a standardized instrument for measuring and valuing productivity losses. Methods A group of researchers with extensive experience in measuring and valuing productivity losses designed an instrument suitable for self-completion, building on preknowledge and evidence on validity. The instrument was designed to cover all domains of productivity losses, thus allowing quantification and valuation of all productivity losses. A feasibility study was performed to check the questionnaire's consistency and intelligibility. Results The iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire ( i PCQ) includes three modules measuring productivity losses of paid work due to 1) absenteeism and 2) presenteeism and productivity losses related to 3) unpaid work. Questions for measuring absenteeism and presenteeism were derived from existing validated questionnaires. Because validated measures of losses of unpaid work are scarce, the questions of this module were newly developed. To enhance the instrument's feasibility, simple language was used. The feasibility study included 195 respondents (response rate 80%) older than 18 years. Seven percent (n = 13) identified problems while filling in the i PCQ, including problems with the questionnaire's instructions and routing (n = 6) and wording (n = 2). Five respondents experienced difficulties in estimating the time that would be needed for other people to make up for lost unpaid work. Conclusions Most modules of the i PCQ are based on validated questions derived from previously available instruments. The instrument is understandable for most of the general public.

In this study, aggregate-level panel data from 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over three decades (1980-2009) were used to investigate the impact of hospital payment reforms on healthcare output and mortality. Hospital payment schemes were classified as fixed-budget (i.e. not directly based on activities), fee-for-service (FFS) or patient-based payment (PBP) schemes. The data were analysed using a difference-in-difference model that allows for a structural change in outcomes due to payment reform. The results suggest that FFS schemes increase the growth rate of healthcare output, whereas PBP schemes positively affect life expectancy at age 65 years. However, these results should be interpreted with caution, as results are sensitive to model specification. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Background Subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) are considered relevant in relation to lifestyle as lifestyle improvements may improve health and lower mortality risk. Objective To study individuals' SSP in a population of elderly (i.e. 60 years and older) from 15 European countries. Methods Data from the second wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) were used. Individuals were asked about their chances to live up to age [T] or more. These SSPs were related to general characteristics, health and lifestyle. In addition, cross-country comparisons were made. The validity of the probabilistic elicitation format used for collecting SSPs was also addressed. Results The average subjective probability of surviving the next 9–15 years was around 57%. Mean SSPs varied significantly across age, with lower means at higher ages. Cross-country comparisons showed lowest mean in the Czech Republic (42%) and the highest in Denmark (64%). SSPs correlated with socio-demographic, socio-economic and also strongly with (objective) health characteristics except for obesity. Smokers reported significantly lower SSPs compared to non-smokers, but no difference was found between non-smokers and quitters. Excessive alcohol consumers reported significantly higher SSPs than moderate consumers and abstainers, but this only held for female excessive drinkers. Physical inactivity was negatively associated with SSPs, but this relation was attenuated at higher ages. In this context, important cross-country differences were found. Conclusions Subjective survival probabilities are informative and relevant in relation to lifestyle decisions and can be validly obtained in elder people. The results from this study provide interesting implications for health policy, health communication strategies and future research.