Search

Aims We assessed the performance of modelsf (risk scores) for predicting recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients who have undergone catheter ablation. Methods and results Systematic searches of bibliographic databases were conducted (November 2018). Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model for predicting AF recurrence after ablation. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) measures were extracted. The Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not feasible due to clinical and methodological differences between studies, but c-statistics were presented in forest plots. Thirty-three studies developing or validating 13 models were included; eight studies compared two or more models. Common model variables were left atrial parameters, type of AF, and age. Model discriminatory ability was highly variable and no model had consistently poor or good performance. Most studies did not assess model calibration. The main risk of bias concern was the lack of internal validation which may have resulted in overly optimistic and/or biased model performance estimates. No model impact studies were identified. Conclusion Our systematic review suggests that clinical risk prediction of AF after ablation has potential, but there remains a need for robust evaluation of risk factors and development of risk scores.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the arrhythmia most commonly diagnosed in clinical practice. It is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Prevalence of AF and complications of AF, estimated by hospitalisations, have increased dramatically in the last decade. Being able to predict AF would allow tailoring of management strategies and a focus on primary or secondary prevention. Models predicting recurrent AF would have particular clinical use for the selection of rhythm control therapy. There are existing prognostic models which combine several predictors or risk factors to generate an individualised estimate of risk of AF. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise and compare model performance measures and predictive accuracy across different models and populations at risk of developing incident or recurrent AF. Methods Methods tailored to systematic reviews of prognostic models will be used for study identification, risk of bias assessment and synthesis. Studies will be eligible for inclusion where they report an internally or externally validated model. The quality of studies reporting a prognostic model will be assessed using the Prediction Study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Studies will be narratively described and included variables and predictive accuracy compared across different models and populations. Meta-analysis of model performance measures for models validated in similar populations will be considered where possible. Discussion To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first systematic review to collate evidence from all studies reporting on validated prognostic models, or on the impact of such models, in any population at risk of incident or recurrent AF. The review may identify models which are suitable for impact assessment in clinical practice. Should gaps in the evidence be identified, research recommendations relating to model development, validation or impact assessment will be made. Findings will be considered in the context of any models already used in clinical practice, and the extent to which these have been validated. Systematic review registration PROSPERO (CRD42018111649).

BackgroundThere is limited evidence that nutritional labelling on food/drinks is changing eating behaviours. Physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) food labelling aims to provide the public with information about the amount of physical activity required to expend the number of kilocalories in food/drinks (eg, calories in this pizza requires 45 min of running to burn), to encourage healthier food choices and reduce disease.ObjectiveWe aimed to systematically search for randomised controlled trials and experimental studies of the effects of PACE food labelling on the selection, purchase or consumption of food/drinks.MethodsPACE food labelling was compared with any other type of food labelling or no labelling (comparator). Reports were identified by searching electronic databases, websites and social media platforms. Inverse variance meta-analysis was used to summarise evidence. Weighted mean differences (WMD) and 95% CIs were used to describe between-group differences using a random effects model.Results15 studies were eligible for inclusion. When PACE labelling was displayed on food/drinks and menus, significantly fewer calories were selected, relative to comparator labelling (WMD=−64.9 kcal, 95% CI −103.2 to −26.6, p=0.009, n=4606). Presenting participants with PACE food labelling results in the consumption of significantly fewer calories (WMD=−80.4 kcal, 95% CI−136.7 to −24.2, p=0.005, n=486) relative to comparator food labelling.ConclusionBased on current evidence PACE food labelling may reduce the number of kilocalories selected from menus and decrease the number of kilocalories/grams of food consumed by the public, compared with other types of food labelling/no labelling.Trial registration numberCRD42018088567.

Background & Aims:\ud Biopsy-confirmed liver fibrosis is a prognostic factor for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We performed a systematic review to quantify the prognostic value of fibrosis stage in patients with NAFLD and the subgroup of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and to assess the evidence that change in fibrosis stage is a surrogate endpoint.\ud \ud Methods:\ud We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and trial registry databases through August 2018 for prospective or retrospective cohort studies of liver-related clinical events and outcomes in adults with NAFLD or NASH. We collected data on mortality (all cause and liver related) and morbidity (cirrhosis, liver cancer, and all liver-related events) by stage of fibrosis, determined by biopsy, for patients with NAFLD or NASH. Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, we calculated fibrosis stage-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) values for mortality and morbidities. We performed fixed-effect and random-effect model meta-analyses. Metaregression was used to examine associations among study design (prospective vs retrospective cohort), overall risk of bias (medium or high), and mean duration of follow-up (in years).\ud \ud Results:\ud Our meta-analysis included 13 studies, comprising 4428 patients with NAFLD; 2875 of these were reported to have NASH. Compared with no fibrosis (stage 0), unadjusted risk increased with increasing stage of fibrosis (stage 0 vs 4): all-cause mortality RR, 3.42 (95% CI, 2.63–4.46); liver-related mortality RR, 11.13 (95% CI, 4.15–29.84); liver transplant RR, 5.42 (95% CI, 1.05–27.89); and liver-related events RR, 12.78 (95% CI, 6.85–23.85). The magnitude of RR did not differ significantly after adjustment for confounders, including age or sex in the subgroup of NAFLD patients with NASH. Three studies examined the effects of increasing fibrosis on quality of life had inconsistent findings.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found biopsy-confirmed fibrosis to be associated with risk of mortality and liver-related morbidity in patients with NAFLD, with and without adjustment for confounding factors and in patients with reported NASH. Further studies are needed to assess the association between fibrosis stage and patient quality of life and establish that change in liver fibrosis stage is a valid endpoint for use in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a rare genetic condition predisposing individuals to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The treatment is generally extrapolated from COPD unrelated to AATD; however, most COPD trials exclude AATD patients; thus, this study sought to systematically review AATD-specific literature to assist evidence-based patient management. METHODS Standard review methodology was used with meta-analysis and narrative synthesis (PROSPERO-CRD42015019354). Eligible studies were those of any treatment used in severe AATD. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were the primary focus; however, case series and uncontrolled studies were eligible. All studies had ≥10 participants receiving treatment or usual care, with baseline and follow-up data (>3 months). Risk of bias was assessed appropriately according to study methodology. RESULTS In all, 7,296 studies were retrieved from searches; 52 trials with 5,632 participants met the inclusion criteria, of which 26 studies involved alpha-1 antitrypsin augmentation and 17 concerned surgical treatments (largely transplantation). Studies were grouped into four management themes: COPD medical, COPD surgical, AATD specific, and other treatments. Computed tomography (CT) density, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide, health status, and exacerbation rates were frequently used as outcomes. Meta-analyses were only possible for RCTs of intravenous augmentation, which slowed progression of emphysema measured by CT density change, 0.79 g/L/year versus placebo (P=0.002), and associated with a small increase in exacerbations 0.29/year (P=0.02). Mortality following lung transplant was comparable between AATD- and non-AATD-related COPD. Surgical reduction of lung volume demonstrated inferior outcomes compared with non-AATD-related emphysema. CONCLUSION Intravenous augmentation remains the only disease-specific therapy in AATD and there is evidence that this slows decline in emphysema determined by CT density. There is paucity of data around other treatments in AATD. Treatments for usual COPD may not be as efficacious in AATD, and further studies may be required for this disease group.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma is one of the most aggressive forms of skin cancer, with the potential to metastasise to other parts of the body via the lymphatic system and the bloodstream. Melanoma accounts for a small percentage of skin cancer cases but is responsible for the majority of skin cancer deaths. Various imaging tests can be used with the aim of detecting metastatic spread of disease following a primary diagnosis of melanoma (primary staging) or on clinical suspicion of disease recurrence (re-staging). Accurate staging is crucial to ensuring that patients are directed to the most appropriate and effective treatment at different points on the clinical pathway. Establishing the comparative accuracy of ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and positron emission tomography (PET)-CT imaging for detection of nodal or distant metastases, or both, is critical to understanding if, how, and where on the pathway these tests might be used.OBJECTIVES: Primary objectivesWe estimated accuracy separately according to the point in the clinical pathway at which imaging tests were used. Our objectives were:• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound or PET-CT for detection of nodal metastases before sentinel lymph node biopsy in adults with confirmed cutaneous invasive melanoma; and• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for whole body imaging in adults with cutaneous invasive melanoma:○ for detection of any metastasis in adults with a primary diagnosis of melanoma (i.e. primary staging at presentation); and○ for detection of any metastasis in adults undergoing staging of recurrence of melanoma (i.e. re-staging prompted by findings on routine follow-up).We undertook separate analyses according to whether accuracy data were reported per patient or per lesion.Secondary objectivesWe sought to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for whole body imaging (detection of any metastasis) in mixed or not clearly described populations of adults with cutaneous invasive melanoma.For study participants undergoing primary staging or re-staging (for possible recurrence), and for mixed or unclear populations, our objectives were:• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of nodal metastases;• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of distant metastases; and• to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound, CT, MRI, or PET-CT for detection of distant metastases according to metastatic site.SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists as well as published systematic review articles.SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies of any design that evaluated ultrasound (with or without the use of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC)), CT, MRI, or PET-CT for staging of cutaneous melanoma in adults, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or imaging with clinical follow-up of at least three months' duration. We excluded studies reporting multiple applications of the same test in more than 10% of study participants.DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2)). We estimated accuracy using the bivariate hierarchical method to produce summary sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence and prediction regions. We undertook analysis of studies allowing direct and indirect comparison between tests. We examined heterogeneity between studies by visually inspecting the forest plots of sensitivity and specificity and summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots. Numbers of identified studies were insufficient to allow formal investigation of potential sources of heterogeneity.MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 39 publications reporting on 5204 study participants; 34 studies reporting data per patient included 4980 study participants with 1265 cases of metastatic disease, and seven studies reporting data per lesion included 417 study participants with 1846 potentially metastatic lesions, 1061 of which were confirmed metastases. The risk of bias was low or unclear for all domains apart from participant flow. Concerns regarding applicability of the evidence were high or unclear for almost all domains. Participant selection from mixed or not clearly defined populations and poorly described application and interpretation of index tests were particularly problematic.The accuracy of imaging for detection of regional nodal metastases before sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) was evaluated in 18 studies. In 11 studies (2614 participants; 542 cases), the summary sensitivity of ultrasound alone was 35.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0% to 59.4%) and specificity was 93.9% (95% CI 86.1% to 97.5%). Combining pre-SLNB ultrasound with FNAC revealed summary sensitivity of 18.0% (95% CI 3.58% to 56.5%) and specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.1% to 99.9%) (1164 participants; 259 cases). Four studies demonstrated lower sensitivity (10.2%, 95% CI 4.31% to 22.3%) and specificity (96.5%,95% CI 87.1% to 99.1%) for PET-CT before SLNB (170 participants, 49 cases). When these data are translated to a hypothetical cohort of 1000 people eligible for SLNB, 237 of whom have nodal metastases (median prevalence), the combination of ultrasound with FNAC potentially allows 43 people with nodal metastases to be triaged directly to adjuvant therapy rather than having SLNB first, at a cost of two people with false positive results (who are incorrectly managed). Those with a false negative ultrasound will be identified on subsequent SLNB.Limited test accuracy data were available for whole body imaging via PET-CT for primary staging or re-staging for disease recurrence, and none evaluated MRI. Twenty-four studies evaluated whole body imaging. Six of these studies explored primary staging following a confirmed diagnosis of melanoma (492 participants), three evaluated re-staging of disease following some clinical indication of recurrence (589 participants), and 15 included mixed or not clearly described population groups comprising participants at a number of different points on the clinical pathway and at varying stages of disease (1265 participants). Results for whole body imaging could not be translated to a hypothetical cohort of people due to paucity of data.Most of the studies (6/9) of primary disease or re-staging of disease considered PET-CT, two in comparison to CT alone, and three studies examined the use of ultrasound. No eligible evaluations of MRI in these groups were identified. All studies used histological reference standards combined with follow-up, and two included FNAC for some participants. Observed accuracy for detection of any metastases for PET-CT was higher for re-staging of disease (summary sensitivity from two studies: 92.6%, 95% CI 85.3% to 96.4%; specificity: 89.7%, 95% CI 78.8% to 95.3%; 153 participants; 95 cases) compared to primary staging (sensitivities from individual studies ranged from 30% to 47% and specificities from 73% to 88%), and was more sensitive than CT alone in both population groups, but participant numbers were very small.No conclusions can be drawn regarding routine imaging of the brain via MRI or CT.AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Review authors found a disappointing lack of evidence on the accuracy of imaging in people with a diagnosis of melanoma at different points on the clinical pathway. Studies were small and often reported data according to the number of lesions rather than the number of study participants. Imaging with ultrasound combined with FNAC before SLNB may identify around one-fifth of those with nodal disease, but confidence intervals are wide and further work is needed to establish cost-effectiveness. Much of the evidence for whole body imaging for primary staging or re-staging of disease is focused on PET-CT, and comparative data with CT or MRI are lacking. Future studies should go beyond diagnostic accuracy and consider the effects of different imaging tests on disease management. The increasing availability of adjuvant therapies for people with melanoma at high risk of disease spread at presentation will have a considerable impact on imaging services, yet evidence for the relative diagnostic accuracy of available tests is limited.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirth affects 2.6 million pregnancies worldwide each year. Whilst the majority of cases occur in low‐ and middle‐income countries, stillbirth remains an important clinical issue for high‐income countries (HICs) ‐ with both the UK and the USA reporting rates above the mean for HICs. In HICs, the most frequently reported association with stillbirth is placental dysfunction. Placental dysfunction may be evident clinically as fetal growth restriction (FGR) and small‐for‐dates infants. It can be caused by placental abruption or hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and many other disorders and factors Placental abnormalities are noted in 11% to 65% of stillbirths. Identification of FGR is difficult in utero. Small‐for‐gestational age (SGA), as assessed after birth, is the most commonly used surrogate measure for this outcome. The degree of SGA is associated with the likelihood of FGR; 30% of infants with a birthweight < 10th centile are thought to be FGR, while 70% of infants with a birthweight < 3rd centile are thought to be FGR. Critically, SGA is the most significant antenatal risk factor for a stillborn infant. Correct identification of SGA infants is associated with a reduction in the perinatal mortality rate. However, currently used tests, such as measurement of symphysis‐fundal height, have a low reported sensitivity and specificity for the identification of SGA infants. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound assessment of fetal growth by estimated fetal weight (EFW) and placental biomarkers alone and in any combination used after 24 weeks of pregnancy in the identification of placental dysfunction as evidenced by either stillbirth, or birth of a SGA infant. Secondary objectives were to investigate the effect of clinical and methodological factors on test performance. SEARCH METHODS: We developed full search strategies with no language or date restrictions. The following sources were searched: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process and Embase via Ovid, Cochrane (Wiley) CENTRAL, Science Citation Index (Web of Science), CINAHL (EBSCO) with search strategies adapted for each database as required; ISRCTN Registry, UK Clinical Trials Gateway, WHO International Clinical Trials Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing studies; specialist abstract and conference proceeding resources (British Library’s ZETOC and Web of Science Conference Proceedings Citation Index). Search last conducted in Ocober 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies of pregnant women of any age with a gestation of at least 24 weeks if relevant outcomes of pregnancy (live birth/stillbirth; SGA infant) were assessed. Studies were included irrespective of whether pregnant women were deemed to be low or high risk for complications or were of mixed populations (low and high risk). Pregnancies complicated by fetal abnormalities and multi‐fetal pregnancies were excluded as they have a higher risk of stillbirth from non‐placental causes. With regard to biochemical tests, we included assays performed using any technique and at any threshold used to determine test positivity. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted the numbers of true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative test results from each study. We assessed risk of bias and applicability using the QUADAS‐2 tool. Meta‐analyses were performed using the hierarchical summary ROC model to estimate and compare test accuracy. MAIN RESULTS: We included 91 studies that evaluated seven tests — blood tests for human placental lactogen (hPL), oestriol, placental growth factor (PlGF) and uric acid, ultrasound EFW and placental grading and urinary oestriol — in a total of 175,426 pregnant women, in which 15,471 pregnancies ended in the birth of a small baby and 740 pregnancies which ended in stillbirth. The quality of included studies was variable with most domains at low risk of bias although 59% of studies were deemed to be of unclear risk of bias for the reference standard domain. Fifty‐three per cent of studies were of high concern for applicability due to inclusion of only high‐ or low‐risk women. Using all available data for SGA (86 studies; 159,490 pregnancies involving 15,471 SGA infants), there was evidence of a difference in accuracy (P < 0.0001) between the seven tests for detecting pregnancies that are SGA at birth. Ultrasound EFW was the most accurate test for detecting SGA at birth with a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 21.3 (95% CI 13.1 to 34.6); hPL was the most accurate biochemical test with a DOR of 4.78 (95% CI 3.21 to 7.13). In a hypothetical cohort of 1000 pregnant women, at the median specificity of 0.88 and median prevalence of 19%, EFW, hPL, oestriol, urinary oestriol, uric acid, PlGF and placental grading will miss 50 (95% CI 32 to 68), 116 (97 to 133), 124 (108 to 137), 127 (95 to 152), 139 (118 to 154), 144 (118 to 161), and 144 (122 to 161) SGA infants, respectively. For the detection of pregnancies ending in stillbirth (21 studies; 100,687 pregnancies involving 740 stillbirths), in an indirect comparison of the four biochemical tests, PlGF was the most accurate test with a DOR of 49.2 (95% CI 12.7 to 191). In a hypothetical cohort of 1000 pregnant women, at the median specificity of 0.78 and median prevalence of 1.7%, PlGF, hPL, urinary oestriol and uric acid will miss 2 (95% CI 0 to 4), 4 (2 to 8), 6 (6 to 7) and 8 (3 to 13) stillbirths, respectively. No studies assessed the accuracy of ultrasound EFW for detection of pregnancy ending in stillbirth. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Biochemical markers of placental dysfunction used alone have insufficient accuracy to identify pregnancies ending in SGA or stillbirth. Studies combining U and placental biomarkers are needed to determine whether this approach improves diagnostic accuracy over the use of ultrasound estimation of fetal size or biochemical markers of placental dysfunction used alone. Many of the studies included in this review were carried out between 1974 and 2016. Studies of placental substances were mostly carried out before 1991 and after 2013; earlier studies may not reflect developments in test technology.

BACKGROUND: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are high‐risk skin cancers, which have the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death, whereas basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised, with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue. Anxiety around missing early cases needs to be balanced against inappropriate referral and unnecessary excision of benign lesions. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a microscopic imaging technique, which magnifies the surface of a skin lesion using near‐infrared light. Used in conjunction with clinical or dermoscopic examination of suspected skin cancer, or both, OCT may offer additional diagnostic information compared to other technologies. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of OCT for the detection of cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, basal cell carcinoma (BCC), or cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies of any design evaluating OCT in adults with lesions suspicious for invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, BCC or cSCC, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). Our unit of analysis was lesions. Where possible, we estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model. MAIN RESULTS: We included five studies with 529 cutaneous lesions (282 malignant lesions) providing nine datasets for OCT, two for visual inspection alone, and two for visual inspection plus dermoscopy. Studies were of moderate to unclear quality, using data‐driven thresholds for test positivity and giving poor accounts of reference standard interpretation and blinding. Studies may not have been representative of populations eligible for OCT in practice, for example due to high disease prevalence in study populations, and may not have reflected how OCT is used in practice, for example by using previously acquired OCT images. It was not possible to make summary statements regarding accuracy of detection of melanoma or of cSCC because of the paucity of studies, small sample sizes, and for melanoma differences in the OCT technologies used (high‐definition versus conventional resolution OCT), and differences in the degree of testing performed prior to OCT (i.e. visual inspection alone or visual inspection plus dermoscopy). Pooled data from two studies using conventional swept‐source OCT alongside visual inspection and dermoscopy for the detection of BCC estimated the sensitivity of OCT as 95% (95% confidence interval (CI) 91% to 97%) and specificity of 77% (95% CI 69% to 83%). When applied to a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions at the mean observed BCC prevalence of 60%, OCT would miss 31 BCCs (91 fewer than would be missed by visual inspection alone and 53 fewer than would be missed by visual inspection plus dermoscopy), and OCT would lead to 93 false‐positive results for BCC (a reduction in unnecessary excisions of 159 compared to using visual inspection alone and of 87 compared to visual inspection plus dermoscopy). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Insufficient data are available on the use of OCT for the detection of melanoma or cSCC. Initial data suggest conventional OCT may have a role for the diagnosis of BCC in clinically challenging lesions, with our meta‐analysis showing a higher sensitivity and higher specificity when compared to visual inspection plus dermoscopy. However, the small number of studies and varying methodological quality means implications to guide practice cannot currently be drawn. Appropriately designed prospective comparative studies are required, given the paucity of data comparing OCT with dermoscopy and other similar diagnostic aids such as reflectance confocal microscopy.

Background: Melanoma accounts for a small proportion of all skin cancer cases but is responsible for most skin cancer‐related deaths. Early detection and treatment can improve survival. Smartphone applications are readily accessible and potentially offer an instant risk assessment of the likelihood of malignancy so that the right people seek further medical attention from a clinician for more detailed assessment of the lesion. There is, however, a risk that melanomas will be missed and treatment delayed if the application reassures the user that their lesion is low risk.Objectives: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of smartphone applications to rule out cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants in adults with concerns about suspicious skin lesions.Search methods: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles.Selection criteria: Studies of any design evaluating smartphone applications intended for use by individuals in a community setting who have lesions that might be suspicious for melanoma or atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants versus a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up and expert opinion.Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). Due to scarcity of data and poor quality of studies, we did not perform a meta‐analysis for this review. For illustrative purposes, we plotted estimates of sensitivity and specificity on coupled forest plots for each application under consideration.Main results: This review reports on two cohorts of lesions published in two studies. Both studies were at high risk of bias from selective participant recruitment and high rates of non‐evaluable images. Concerns about applicability of findings were high due to inclusion only of lesions already selected for excision in a dermatology clinic setting, and image acquisition by clinicians rather than by smartphone app users.We report data for five mobile phone applications and 332 suspicious skin lesions with 86 melanomas across the two studies. Across the four artificial intelligence‐based applications that classified lesion images (photographs) as melanomas (one application) or as high risk or 'problematic' lesions (three applications) using a pre‐programmed algorithm, sensitivities ranged from 7% (95% CI 2% to 16%) to 73% (95% CI 52% to 88%) and specificities from 37% (95% CI 29% to 46%) to 94% (95% CI 87% to 97%). The single application using store‐and‐forward review of lesion images by a dermatologist had a sensitivity of 98% (95% CI 90% to 100%) and specificity of 30% (95% CI 22% to 40%).The number of test failures (lesion images analysed by the applications but classed as 'unevaluable' and excluded by the study authors) ranged from 3 to 31 (or 2% to 18% of lesions analysed). The store‐and‐forward application had one of the highest rates of test failure (15%). At least one melanoma was classed as unevaluable in three of the four application evaluations.Authors' conclusions: Smartphone applications using artificial intelligence‐based analysis have not yet demonstrated sufficient promise in terms of accuracy, and they are associated with a high likelihood of missing melanomas. Applications based on store‐and‐forward images could have a potential role in the timely presentation of people with potentially malignant lesions by facilitating active self‐management health practices and early engagement of those with suspicious skin lesions; however, they may incur a significant increase in resource and workload. Given the paucity of evidence and low methodological quality of existing studies, it is not possible to draw any implications for practice. Nevertheless, this is a rapidly advancing field, and new and better applications with robust reporting of studies could change these conclusions substantially.

BACKGROUND: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) are high‐risk skin cancers which have the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death, whereas basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue. Anxiety around missing early curable cases needs to be balanced against inappropriate referral and unnecessary excision of benign lesions. Computer‐assisted diagnosis (CAD) systems use artificial intelligence to analyse lesion data and arrive at a diagnosis of skin cancer. When used in unreferred settings ('primary care'), CAD may assist general practitioners (GPs) or other clinicians to more appropriately triage high‐risk lesions to secondary care. Used alongside clinical and dermoscopic suspicion of malignancy, CAD may reduce unnecessary excisions without missing melanoma cases. OBJECTIVES: To determine the accuracy of CAD systems for diagnosing cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, BCC or cSCC in adults, and to compare its accuracy with that of dermoscopy. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies of any design that evaluated CAD alone, or in comparison with dermoscopy, in adults with lesions suspicious for melanoma or BCC or cSCC, and compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic threshold were missing. We estimated summary sensitivities and specificities separately by type of CAD system, using the bivariate hierarchical model. We compared CAD with dermoscopy using (a) all available CAD data (indirect comparisons), and (b) studies providing paired data for both tests (direct comparisons). We tested the contribution of human decision‐making to the accuracy of CAD diagnoses in a sensitivity analysis by removing studies that gave CAD results to clinicians to guide diagnostic decision‐making. MAIN RESULTS: We included 42 studies, 24 evaluating digital dermoscopy‐based CAD systems (Derm–CAD) in 23 study cohorts with 9602 lesions (1220 melanomas, at least 83 BCCs, 9 cSCCs), providing 32 datasets for Derm–CAD and seven for dermoscopy. Eighteen studies evaluated spectroscopy‐based CAD (Spectro–CAD) in 16 study cohorts with 6336 lesions (934 melanomas, 163 BCC, 49 cSCCs), providing 32 datasets for Spectro–CAD and six for dermoscopy. These consisted of 15 studies using multispectral imaging (MSI), two studies using electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and one study using diffuse‐reflectance spectroscopy. Studies were incompletely reported and at unclear to high risk of bias across all domains. Included studies inadequately address the review question, due to an abundance of low‐quality studies, poor reporting, and recruitment of highly selected groups of participants. Across all CAD systems, we found considerable variation in the hardware and software technologies used, the types of classification algorithm employed, methods used to train the algorithms, and which lesion morphological features were extracted and analysed across all CAD systems, and even between studies evaluating CAD systems. Meta–analysis found CAD systems had high sensitivity for correct identification of cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants in highly selected populations, but with low and very variable specificity, particularly for Spectro–CAD systems. Pooled data from 22 studies estimated the sensitivity of Derm–CAD for the detection of melanoma as 90.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 84.0% to 94.0%) and specificity as 74.3% (95% CI 63.6% to 82.7%). Pooled data from eight studies estimated the sensitivity of multispectral imaging CAD (MSI–CAD) as 92.9% (95% CI 83.7% to 97.1%) and specificity as 43.6% (95% CI 24.8% to 64.5%). When applied to a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions at the mean observed melanoma prevalence of 20%, Derm–CAD would miss 20 melanomas and would lead to 206 false‐positive results for melanoma. MSI–CAD would miss 14 melanomas and would lead to 451 false diagnoses for melanoma. Preliminary findings suggest CAD systems are at least as sensitive as assessment of dermoscopic images for the diagnosis of invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants. We are unable to make summary statements about the use of CAD in unreferred populations, or its accuracy in detecting keratinocyte cancers, or its use in any setting as a diagnostic aid, because of the paucity of studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In highly selected patient populations all CAD types demonstrate high sensitivity, and could prove useful as a back‐up for specialist diagnosis to assist in minimising the risk of missing melanomas. However, the evidence base is currently too poor to understand whether CAD system outputs translate to different clinical decision–making in practice. Insufficient data are available on the use of CAD in community settings, or for the detection of keratinocyte cancers. The evidence base for individual systems is too limited to draw conclusions on which might be preferred for practice. Prospective comparative studies are required that evaluate the use of already evaluated CAD systems as diagnostic aids, by comparison to face–to–face dermoscopy, and in participant populations that are representative of those in which the test would be used in practice.

BACKGROUND: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management, reduce morbidity and improve survival. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised to the skin but has potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue, while cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma have a much higher potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death. Exfoliative cytology is a non‐invasive test that uses the Tzanck smear technique to identify disease by examining the structure of cells obtained from scraped samples. This simple procedure is a less invasive diagnostic test than a skin biopsy, and for BCC it has the potential to provide an immediate diagnosis that avoids an additional clinic visit to receive skin biopsy results. This may benefit patients scheduled for either Mohs micrographic surgery or non‐surgical treatments such as radiotherapy. A cytology scrape can never give the same information as a skin biopsy, however, so it is important to better understand in which skin cancer situations it may be helpful. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of exfoliative cytology for detecting basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in adults, and to compare its accuracy with that of standard diagnostic practice (visual inspection with or without dermoscopy). Secondary objectives were: to determine the diagnostic accuracy of exfoliative cytology for detecting cSCC, invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, and any other skin cancer; and for each of these secondary conditions to compare the accuracy of exfoliative cytology with visual inspection with or without dermoscopy in direct test comparisons; and to determine the effect of observer experience. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We also studied the reference lists of published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies evaluating exfoliative cytology in adults with lesions suspicious for BCC, cSCC or melanoma, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). Where possible we estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model. MAIN RESULTS: We synthesised the results of nine studies contributing a total of 1655 lesions to our analysis, including 1120 BCCs (14 datasets), 41 cSCCs (amongst 401 lesions in 2 datasets), and 10 melanomas (amongst 200 lesions in 1 dataset). Three of these datasets (one each for BCC, melanoma and any malignant condition) were derived from one study that also performed a direct comparison with dermoscopy. Studies were of moderate to poor quality, providing inadequate descriptions of participant selection, thresholds used to make cytological and histological diagnoses, and blinding. Reporting of participants' prior referral pathways was particularly poor, as were descriptions of the cytodiagnostic criteria used to make diagnoses. No studies evaluated the use of exfoliative cytology as a primary diagnostic test for detecting BCC or other skin cancers in lesions suspicious for skin cancer. Pooled data from seven studies using standard cytomorphological criteria (but various stain methods) to detect BCC in participants with a high clinical suspicion of BCC estimated the sensitivity and specificity of exfoliative cytology as 97.5% (95% CI 94.5% to 98.9%) and 90.1% (95% CI 81.1% to 95.1%). respectively. When applied to a hypothetical population of 1000 clinically suspected BCC lesions with a median observed BCC prevalence of 86%, exfoliative cytology would miss 21 BCCs and would lead to 14 false positive diagnoses of BCC. No false positive cases were histologically confirmed to be melanoma. Insufficient data are available to make summary statements regarding the accuracy of exfoliative cytology to detect melanoma or cSCC, or its accuracy compared to dermoscopy. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The utility of exfoliative cytology for the primary diagnosis of skin cancer is unknown, as all included studies focused on the use of this technique for confirming strongly suspected clinical diagnoses. For the confirmation of BCC in lesions with a high clinical suspicion, there is evidence of high sensitivity and specificity. Since decisions to treat low‐risk BCCs are unlikely in practice to require diagnostic confirmation given that clinical suspicion is already high, exfoliative cytology might be most useful for cases of BCC where the treatments being contemplated require a tissue diagnosis (e.g. radiotherapy). The small number of included studies, poor reporting and varying methodological quality prevent us from drawing strong conclusions to guide clinical practice. Despite insufficient data on the use of cytology for cSCC or melanoma, it is unlikely that cytology would be useful in these scenarios since preservation of the architecture of the whole lesion that would be available from a biopsy provides crucial diagnostic information. Given the paucity of good quality data, appropriately designed prospective comparative studies may be required to evaluate both the diagnostic value of exfoliative cytology by comparison to dermoscopy, and its confirmatory value in adequately reported populations with a high probability of BCC scheduled for further treatment requiring a tissue diagnosis.

© 2018 The Cochrane Collaboration. Background: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is important to guide appropriate management, to reduce morbidity and to improve survival. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is almost always a localised skin cancer with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue, whereas a minority of cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (cSCCs) and invasive melanomas are higher-risk skin cancers with the potential to metastasise and cause death. Dermoscopy has become an important tool to assist specialist clinicians in the diagnosis of melanoma, and is increasingly used in primary-care settings. Dermoscopy is a precision-built handheld illuminated magnifier that allows more detailed examination of the skin down to the level of the superficial dermis. Establishing the value of dermoscopy over and above visual inspection for the diagnosis of BCC or cSCC in primary- and secondary-care settings is critical to understanding its potential contribution to appropriate skin cancer triage, including referral of higher-risk cancers to secondary care, the identification of low-risk skin cancers that might be treated in primary care and to provide reassurance to those with benign skin lesions who can be safely discharged. Objectives: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of visual inspection and dermoscopy, alone or in combination, for the detection of (a) BCC and (b) cSCC, in adults. We separated studies according to whether the diagnosis was recorded face-to-face (in person) or based on remote (image-based) assessment. Search methods: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. Selection criteria: Studies of any design that evaluated visual inspection or dermoscopy or both in adults with lesions suspicious for skin cancer, compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow-up. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS-2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic thresholds were missing. We estimated accuracy using hierarchical summary ROC methods. We undertook analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests. To facilitate interpretation of results, we computed values of sensitivity at the point on the SROC curve with 80% fixed specificity and values of specificity with 80% fixed sensitivity. We investigated the impact of in-person test interpretation; use of a purposely-developed algorithm to assist diagnosis; and observer expertise. Main results: We included 24 publications reporting on 24 study cohorts, providing 27 visual inspection datasets (8805 lesions; 2579 malignancies) and 33 dermoscopy datasets (6855 lesions; 1444 malignancies). The risk of bias was mainly low for the index test (for dermoscopy evaluations) and reference standard domains, particularly for in-person evaluations, and high or unclear for participant selection, application of the index test for visual inspection and for participant flow and timing. We scored concerns about the applicability of study findings as of 'high' or 'unclear' concern for almost all studies across all domains assessed. Selective participant recruitment, lack of reproducibility of diagnostic thresholds and lack of detail on observer expertise were particularly problematic. The detection of BCC was reported in 28 datasets; 15 on an in-person basis and 13 image-based. Analysis of studies by prior testing of participants and according to observer expertise was not possible due to lack of data. Studies were primarily conducted in participants referred for specialist assessment of lesions with available histological classification. We found no clear differences in accuracy between dermoscopy studies undertaken in person and those which evaluated images. The lack of effect observed may be due to other sources of heterogeneity, including variations in the types of skin lesion studied, in dermatoscopes used, or in the use of algorithms and varying thresholds for deciding on a positive test result. Meta-analysis found in-person evaluations of dermoscopy (7 evaluations; 4683 lesions and 363 BCCs) to be more accurate than visual inspection alone for the detection of BCC (8 evaluations; 7017 lesions and 1586 BCCs), with a relative diagnostic odds ratio (RDOR) of 8.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.5 to 19.3; P < 0.001). This corresponds to predicted differences in sensitivity of 14% (93% versus 79%) at a fixed specificity of 80% and predicted differences in specificity of 22% (99% versus 77%) at a fixed sensitivity of 80%. We observed very similar results for the image-based evaluations. When applied to a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions, of which 170 are BCC (based on median BCC prevalence across studies), an increased sensitivity of 14% from dermoscopy would lead to 24 fewer BCCs missed, assuming 166 false positive results from both tests. A 22% increase in specificity from dermoscopy with sensitivity fixed at 80% would result in 183 fewer unnecessary excisions, assuming 34 BCCs missed for both tests. There was not enough evidence to assess the use of algorithms or structured checklists for either visual inspection or dermoscopy. Insufficient data were available to draw conclusions on the accuracy of either test for the detection of cSCCs. Authors' conclusions: Dermoscopy may be a valuable tool for the diagnosis of BCC as an adjunct to visual inspection of a suspicious skin lesion following a thorough history-taking including assessment of risk factors for keratinocyte cancer. The evidence primarily comes from secondary-care (referred) populations and populations with pigmented lesions or mixed lesion types. There is no clear evidence supporting the use of currently-available formal algorithms to assist dermoscopy diagnosis.

Background Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is important to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually a localised skin cancer but with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue, whereas squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma are higher risk skin cancers with the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death. When used in conjunction with clinical or dermoscopic suspicion of malignancy, or both, reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) may help to identify those eligible for non-surgical treatment without the need for a diagnostic biopsy, particularly in people with suspected BCC. Any potential benefit must be balanced against the risk of any misdiagnoses. Objectives 1) To determine the diagnostic accuracy of RCM for the detection of BCC, cSCC, or any skin cancer in adults with a) suspicious lesion and b) lesions that are difficult to diagnose (equivocal); and 2) to compare its accuracy with that of usual practice (visual inspection or dermoscopy, or both). Search methods We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; EMBASE; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. Selection criteria Studies of any design that evaluated the accuracy of RCM alone, or RCM in comparison to visual inspection or dermoscopy, or both, in adults with lesions suspicious for skin cancer compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow-up, or both. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS-2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic threshold were missing. We estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model. For computation of likely numbers of true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative findings in the'Summary of findings' tables, summary sensitivity and specificity estimates were applied to lower quartile, median and upper quartiles of the prevalence observed in the study groups. We also investigated the impact of observer experience. Main results Ten studies reporting on a total of 11 study cohorts were included. All 11 cohorts reported data for the detection of BCC, including 2037 lesions (464 with BCC); and four cohorts reported data for the detection of cSCC, including 834 lesions (71 with cSCC). Only one study also reported data for the detection of BCC or cSCC using dermoscopy, limiting comparisons between RCM and dermoscopy. Studies were at high or unclear risk of bias across almost all methodological quality domains, and were of high or unclear concern regarding applicability of the evidence. Selective participant recruitment, unclear blinding of the reference test, and exclusions due to image quality or technical difficulties were observed. It is unclear whether studies are representative of populations eligible for testing with RCM, and test interpretation was often undertaken using images, remotely from the patient and the interpreter blinded to clinical information that would normally be available in practice. Meta-analysis found RCM to be more sensitive but less specific for the detection of BCC in studies of participants with equivocal lesions (sensitivity 94%, 95% CI 79% to 98%; specificity 85%, 95% CI 72% to 92%; n = 3 studies) compared to studies that included any suspicious lesion (sensitivity 76%, 95% CI 45% to 92%; specificity 95%, 95% CI 66% to 99%; n = 4 studies), although confidence intervals were wide. At the median prevalence of disease of 12.5% observed in studies including any suspicious lesion, applying these results to a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions results in 30 BCCs missed with 44 false positive results (lesions misdiagnosed as BCCs). At the median prevalence of disease of 15% observed in studies of equivocal lesions, 9 BCCs would be missed with 128 false positive results in a population of 1000 lesions. Across both sets of studies, up to 15% of these false positive lesions were observed to be melanomas mistaken for BCCs. There was some suggestion of higher sensitivities in studies with more experienced observers. Summary sensitivity and specificity could not be estimated for the detection of cSCC due to paucity of data. Authors' conclusions There is insufficient evidence for the use of RCM for the diagnosis of BCC or cSCC in either population group. A possible role for RCM in clinical practice is as a tool to avoid diagnostic biopsies in lesions with a relatively high clinical suspicion of BCC. The potential for, and consequences of, misclassification of other skin cancers such as melanoma as BCCs requires further research. Importantly, data are lacking that compare RCM to standard clinical practice (with or without dermoscopy).

BACKGROUND: Melanoma has one of the fastest rising incidence rates of any cancer. It accounts for a small percentage of skin cancer cases but is responsible for the majority of skin cancer deaths. Although history‐taking and visual inspection of a suspicious lesion by a clinician are usually the first in a series of ‘tests’ to diagnose skin cancer, dermoscopy has become an important tool to assist diagnosis by specialist clinicians and is increasingly used in primary care settings. Dermoscopy is a magnification technique using visible light that allows more detailed examination of the skin compared to examination by the naked eye alone. Establishing the additive value of dermoscopy over and above visual inspection alone across a range of observers and settings is critical to understanding its contribution for the diagnosis of melanoma and to future understanding of the potential role of the growing number of other high‐resolution image analysis techniques. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of dermoscopy alone, or when added to visual inspection of a skin lesion, for the detection of cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants in adults. We separated studies according to whether the diagnosis was recorded face‐to‐face (in‐person), or based on remote (image‐based), assessment. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: CENTRAL; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies of any design that evaluated dermoscopy in adults with lesions suspicious for melanoma, compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. Data on the accuracy of visual inspection, to allow comparisons of tests, was included only if reported in the included studies of dermoscopy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic threshold were missing. We estimated accuracy using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC),methods. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. To facilitate interpretation of results, we computed values of sensitivity at the point on the SROC curve with 80% fixed specificity and values of specificity with 80% fixed sensitivity. We investigated the impact of in‐person test interpretation; use of a purposely developed algorithm to assist diagnosis; observer expertise; and dermoscopy training. MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 104 study publications reporting on 103 study cohorts with 42,788 lesions (including 5700 cases), providing 354 datasets for dermoscopy. The risk of bias was mainly low for the index test and reference standard domains and mainly high or unclear for participant selection and participant flow. Concerns regarding the applicability of study findings were largely scored as ‘high’ concern in three of four domains assessed. Selective participant recruitment, lack of reproducibility of diagnostic thresholds and lack of detail on observer expertise were particularly problematic. The accuracy of dermoscopy for the detection of invasive melanoma or atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants was reported in 86 datasets; 26 for evaluations conducted in person (dermoscopy added to visual inspection), and 60 for image‐based evaluations (diagnosis based on interpretation of dermoscopic images). Analyses of studies by prior testing revealed no obvious effect on accuracy; analyses were hampered by the lack of studies in primary care, lack of relevant information and the restricted inclusion of lesions selected for biopsy or excision. Accuracy was higher for in‐person diagnosis compared to image‐based evaluations (relative diagnostic odds ratio (RDOR) 4.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4 to 9.0; P < 0.001). We compared accuracy for (a), in‐person evaluations of dermoscopy (26 evaluations; 23,169 lesions and 1664 melanomas),versus visual inspection alone (13 evaluations; 6740 lesions and 459 melanomas), and for (b), image‐based evaluations of dermoscopy (60 evaluations; 13,475 lesions and 2851 melanomas),versus image‐based visual inspection (11 evaluations; 1740 lesions and 305 melanomas). For both comparisons, meta‐analysis found dermoscopy to be more accurate than visual inspection alone, with RDORs of (a), 4.7 (95% CI 3.0 to 7.5; P < 0.001), and (b), 5.6 (95% CI 3.7 to 8.5; P < 0.001). For a), the predicted difference in sensitivity at a fixed specificity of 80% was 16% (95% CI 8% to 23%; 92% for dermoscopy + visual inspection versus 76% for visual inspection), and predicted difference in specificity at a fixed sensitivity of 80% was 20% (95% CI 7% to 33%; 95% for dermoscopy + visual inspection versus 75% for visual inspection). For b) the predicted differences in sensitivity was 34% (95% CI 24% to 46%; 81% for dermoscopy versus 47% for visual inspection), at a fixed specificity of 80%, and predicted difference in specificity was 40% (95% CI 27% to 57%; 82% for dermoscopy versus 42% for visual inspection), at a fixed sensitivity of 80%. Using the median prevalence of disease in each set of studies ((a), 12% for in‐person and (b), 24% for image‐based), for a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions, an increase in sensitivity of (a), 16% (in‐person), and (b), 34% (image‐based), from using dermoscopy at a fixed specificity of 80% equates to a reduction in the number of melanomas missed of (a), 19 and (b), 81 with (a), 176 and (b), 152 false positive results. An increase in specificity of (a), 20% (in‐person), and (b), 40% (image‐based), at a fixed sensitivity of 80% equates to a reduction in the number of unnecessary excisions from using dermoscopy of (a), 176 and (b), 304 with (a), 24 and (b), 48 melanomas missed. The use of a named or published algorithm to assist dermoscopy interpretation (as opposed to no reported algorithm or reported use of pattern analysis), had no significant impact on accuracy either for in‐person (RDOR 1.4, 95% CI 0.34 to 5.6; P = 0.17), or image‐based (RDOR 1.4, 95% CI 0.60 to 3.3; P = 0.22), evaluations. This result was supported by subgroup analysis according to algorithm used. We observed higher accuracy for observers reported as having high experience and for those classed as ‘expert consultants’ in comparison to those considered to have less experience in dermoscopy, particularly for image‐based evaluations. Evidence for the effect of dermoscopy training on test accuracy was very limited but suggested associated improvements in sensitivity. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Despite the observed limitations in the evidence base, dermoscopy is a valuable tool to support the visual inspection of a suspicious skin lesion for the detection of melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, particularly in referred populations and in the hands of experienced users. Data to support its use in primary care are limited, however, it may assist in triaging suspicious lesions for urgent referral when employed by suitably trained clinicians. Formal algorithms may be of most use for dermoscopy training purposes and for less expert observers, however reliable data comparing approaches using dermoscopy in person are lacking.

BACKGROUND: Early, accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are high‐risk skin cancers with the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death, whereas basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised, with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue. Anxiety around missing early curable cases needs to be balanced against inappropriate referral and unnecessary excision of benign lesions. Ultrasound is a non‐invasive imaging technique that relies on the measurement of sound wave reflections from the tissues of the body. At lower frequencies, the deeper structures of the body such as the internal organs can be visualised, while high‐frequency ultrasound (HFUS) with transducer frequencies of 20 MHz or more has a much lower depth of tissue penetration but produces a higher resolution image of tissues and structures closer to the skin surface. Used in conjunction with clinical and/or dermoscopic examination of suspected skin cancer, HFUS may offer additional diagnostic information compared to other technologies. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of HFUS to assist in the diagnosis of a) cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, b) cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), and c) basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in adults. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists as well as published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies evaluating HFUS (20 MHz or more) in adults with lesions suspicious for melanoma, cSCC or BCC versus a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). Due to scarcity of data and the poor quality of studies, we did not undertake a meta‐analysis for this review. For illustrative purposes, we plot estimates of sensitivity and specificity on coupled forest plots. MAIN RESULTS: We included six studies, providing 29 datasets: 20 for diagnosis of melanoma (1125 lesions and 242 melanomas) and 9 for diagnosis of BCC (993 lesions and 119 BCCs). We did not identify any data relating to the diagnosis of cSCC. Studies were generally poorly reported, limiting judgements of methodological quality. Half the studies did not set out to establish test accuracy, and all should be considered preliminary evaluations of the potential usefulness of HFUS. There were particularly high concerns for applicability of findings due to selective study populations and data‐driven thresholds for test positivity. Studies reporting qualitative assessments of HFUS images excluded up to 22% of lesions (including some melanomas) due to lack of visualisation in the test. Derived sensitivities for qualitative HFUS characteristics were at least 83% (95% CI 75% to 90%) for the detection of melanoma; the combination of three features (lesions appearing hypoechoic, homogenous and well defined) demonstrating 100% sensitivity in two studies (lower limits of the 95% CIs were 94% and 82%), with variable corresponding specificities of 33% (95% CI 20% to 48%) and 73% (95% CI 57% to 85%), respectively. Quantitative measurement of HFUS outputs in two studies enabled decision thresholds to be set to achieve 100% sensitivity; specificities were 93% (95% CI 77% to 99%) and 65% (95% CI 51% to 76%). It was not possible to make summary statements regarding HFUS accuracy for the diagnosis of BCC due to highly variable sensitivities and specificities. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Insufficient data are available on the potential value of HFUS in the diagnosis of melanoma or BCC. Given the between‐study heterogeneity, unclear to low methodological quality and limited volume of evidence, we cannot draw any implications for practice. The main value of the preliminary studies included may be in providing guidance on the possible components of new diagnostic rules for diagnosis of melanoma or BCC using HFUS that will require future evaluation. A prospective evaluation of HFUS added to visual inspection and dermoscopy alone in a standard healthcare setting, with a clearly defined and representative population of participants, would be required for a full and proper evaluation of accuracy.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma has one of the fastest rising incidence rates of any cancer. It accounts for a small percentage of skin cancer cases but is responsible for the majority of skin cancer deaths. History‐taking and visual inspection of a suspicious lesion by a clinician is usually the first in a series of ‘tests’ to diagnose skin cancer. Establishing the accuracy of visual inspection alone is critical to understating the potential contribution of additional tests to assist in the diagnosis of melanoma. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of visual inspection for the detection of cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants in adults with limited prior testing and in those referred for further evaluation of a suspicious lesion. Studies were separated according to whether the diagnosis was recorded face‐to‐face (in‐person) or based on remote (image‐based) assessment. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: CENTRAL; CINAHL; CPCI; Zetoc; Science Citation Index; US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register; NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database; and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Test accuracy studies of any design that evaluated visual inspection in adults with lesions suspicious for melanoma, compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. We excluded studies reporting data for ‘clinical diagnosis’ where dermoscopy may or may not have been used. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic threshold were missing. We estimated summary sensitivities and specificities per algorithm and threshold using the bivariate hierarchical model. We investigated the impact of: in‐person test interpretation; use of a purposely developed algorithm to assist diagnosis; and observer expertise. MAIN RESULTS: We included 49 publications reporting on a total of 51 study cohorts with 34,351 lesions (including 2499 cases), providing 134 datasets for visual inspection. Across almost all study quality domains, the majority of study reports provided insufficient information to allow us to judge the risk of bias, while in three of four domains that we assessed we scored concerns regarding applicability of study findings as 'high'. Selective participant recruitment, lack of detail regarding the threshold for deciding on a positive test result, and lack of detail on observer expertise were particularly problematic. Attempts to analyse studies by degree of prior testing were hampered by a lack of relevant information and by the restricted inclusion of lesions selected for biopsy or excision. Accuracy was generally much higher for in‐person diagnosis compared to image‐based evaluations (relative diagnostic odds ratio of 8.54, 95% CI 2.89 to 25.3, P < 0.001). Meta‐analysis of in‐person evaluations that could be clearly placed on the clinical pathway showed a general trade‐off between sensitivity and specificity, with the highest sensitivity (92.4%, 95% CI 26.2% to 99.8%) and lowest specificity (79.7%, 95% CI 73.7% to 84.7%) observed in participants with limited prior testing (n = 3 datasets). Summary sensitivities were lower for those referred for specialist assessment but with much higher specificities (e.g. sensitivity 76.7%, 95% CI 61.7% to 87.1%) and specificity 95.7%, 95% CI 89.7% to 98.3%) for lesions selected for excision, n = 8 datasets). These differences may be related to differences in the spectrum of included lesions, differences in the definition of a positive test result, or to variations in observer expertise. We did not find clear evidence that accuracy is improved by the use of any algorithm to assist diagnosis in all settings. Attempts to examine the effect of observer expertise in melanoma diagnosis were hindered due to poor reporting. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Visual inspection is a fundamental component of the assessment of a suspicious skin lesion; however, the evidence suggests that melanomas will be missed if visual inspection is used on its own. The evidence to support its accuracy in the range of settings in which it is used is flawed and very poorly reported. Although published algorithms do not appear to improve accuracy, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that the ‘no algorithm’ approach should be preferred in all settings. Despite the volume of research evaluating visual inspection, further prospective evaluation of the potential added value of using established algorithms according to the prior testing or diagnostic difficulty of lesions may be warranted.

BACKGROUND: Early accurate detection of all skin cancer types is essential to guide appropriate management and to improve morbidity and survival. Melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are high‐risk skin cancers which have the potential to metastasise and ultimately lead to death, whereas basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is usually localised with potential to infiltrate and damage surrounding tissue. Anxiety around missing early curable cases needs to be balanced against inappropriate referral and unnecessary excision of benign lesions. Teledermatology provides a way for generalist clinicians to access the opinion of a specialist dermatologist for skin lesions that they consider to be suspicious without referring the patients through the normal referral pathway. Teledermatology consultations can be 'store‐and‐forward' with electronic digital images of a lesion sent to a dermatologist for review at a later time, or can be live and interactive consultations using videoconferencing to connect the patient, referrer and dermatologist in real time. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of teledermatology for the detection of any skin cancer (melanoma, BCC or cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC)) in adults, and to compare its accuracy with that of in‐person diagnosis. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, CPCI, Zetoc, Science Citation Index, US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register, NIHR Clinical Research Network Portfolio Database and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies evaluating skin cancer diagnosis for teledermatology alone, or in comparison with face‐to‐face diagnosis by a specialist clinician, compared with a reference standard of histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up and expert opinion. We also included studies evaluating the referral accuracy of teledermatology compared with a reference standard of face‐to‐face diagnosis by a specialist clinician. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). We contacted authors of included studies where there were information related to the target condition of any skin cancer missing. Data permitting, we estimated summary sensitivities and specificities using the bivariate hierarchical model. Due to the scarcity of data, we undertook no covariate investigations for this review. For illustrative purposes, we plotted estimates of sensitivity and specificity on coupled forest plots for diagnostic threshold and target condition under consideration. MAIN RESULTS: The review included 22 studies reporting diagnostic accuracy data for 4057 lesions and 879 malignant cases (16 studies) and referral accuracy data for reported data for 1449 lesions and 270 'positive' cases as determined by the reference standard face‐to‐face decision (six studies). Methodological quality was variable with poor reporting hindering assessment. The overall risk of bias was high or unclear for participant selection, reference standard, and participant flow and timing in at least half of all studies; the majority were at low risk of bias for the index test. The applicability of study findings were of high or unclear concern for most studies in all domains assessed due to the recruitment of participants from secondary care settings or specialist clinics rather than from primary or community‐based settings in which teledermatology is more likely to be used and due to the acquisition of lesion images by dermatologists or in specialist imaging units rather than by primary care clinicians. Seven studies provided data for the primary target condition of any skin cancer (1588 lesions and 638 malignancies). For the correct diagnosis of lesions as malignant using photographic images, summary sensitivity was 94.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 90.1% to 97.4%) and summary specificity was 84.3% (95% CI 48.5% to 96.8%) (from four studies). Individual study estimates using dermoscopic images or a combination of photographic and dermoscopic images generally suggested similarly high sensitivities with highly variable specificities. Limited comparative data suggested similar diagnostic accuracy between teledermatology assessment and in‐person diagnosis by a dermatologist; however, data were too scarce to draw firm conclusions. For the detection of invasive melanoma or atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants both sensitivities and specificities were more variable. Sensitivities ranged from 59% (95% CI 42% to 74%) to 100% (95% CI 48% to 100%) and specificities from 30% (95% CI 22% to 40%) to 100% (95% CI 93% to 100%), with reported diagnostic thresholds including the correct diagnosis of melanoma, classification of lesions as 'atypical' or 'typical, and the decision to refer or to excise a lesion. Referral accuracy data comparing teledermatology against a face‐to‐face reference standard suggested good agreement for lesions considered to require some positive action by face‐to‐face assessment (sensitivities of over 90%). For lesions considered of less concern when assessed face‐to‐face (e.g. for lesions not recommended for excision or referral), agreement was more variable with teledermatology specificities ranging from 57% (95% CI 39% to 73%) to 100% (95% CI 86% to 100%), suggesting that remote assessment is more likely recommend excision, referral or follow‐up compared to in‐person decisions. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Studies were generally small and heterogeneous and methodological quality was difficult to judge due to poor reporting. Bearing in mind concerns regarding the applicability of study participants and of lesion image acquisition in specialist settings, our results suggest that teledermatology can correctly identify the majority of malignant lesions. Using a more widely defined threshold to identify 'possibly' malignant cases or lesions that should be considered for excision is likely to appropriately triage those lesions requiring face‐to‐face assessment by a specialist. Despite the increasing use of teledermatology on an international level, the evidence base to support its ability to accurately diagnose lesions and to triage lesions from primary to secondary care is lacking and further prospective and pragmatic evaluation is needed.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma has one of the fastest rising incidence rates of any cancer. It accounts for a small percentage of skin cancer cases but is responsible for the majority of skin cancer deaths. Early detection and treatment is key to improving survival; however, anxiety around missing early cases needs to be balanced against appropriate levels of referral and excision of benign lesions. Used in conjunction with clinical or dermoscopic suspicion of malignancy, or both, reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) may reduce unnecessary excisions without missing melanoma cases. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of reflectance confocal microscopy for the detection of cutaneous invasive melanoma and atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants in adults with any lesion suspicious for melanoma and lesions that are difficult to diagnose, and to compare its accuracy with that of dermoscopy. SEARCH METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of the following databases from inception up to August 2016: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; and seven other databases. We studied reference lists and published systematic review articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies of any design that evaluated RCM alone, or RCM in comparison to dermoscopy, in adults with lesions suspicious for melanoma or atypical intraepidermal melanocytic variants, compared with a reference standard of either histological confirmation or clinical follow‐up. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted all data using a standardised data extraction and quality assessment form (based on QUADAS‐2). We contacted authors of included studies where information related to the target condition or diagnostic threshold were missing. We estimated summary sensitivities and specificities per algorithm and threshold using the bivariate hierarchical model. To compare RCM with dermoscopy, we grouped studies by population (defined by difficulty of lesion diagnosis) and combined data using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) methods. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. To facilitate interpretation of results, we computed values of specificity at the point on the SROC curve with 90% sensitivity as this value lies within the estimates for the majority of analyses. We investigated the impact of using a purposely developed RCM algorithm and in‐person test interpretation. MAIN RESULTS: The search identified 18 publications reporting on 19 study cohorts with 2838 lesions (including 658 with melanoma), which provided 67 datasets for RCM and seven for dermoscopy. Studies were generally at high or unclear risk of bias across almost all domains and of high or unclear concern regarding applicability of the evidence. Selective participant recruitment, lack of blinding of the reference test to the RCM result, and differential verification were particularly problematic. Studies may not be representative of populations eligible for RCM, and test interpretation was often undertaken remotely from the patient and blinded to clinical information. Meta‐analysis found RCM to be more accurate than dermoscopy in studies of participants with any lesion suspicious for melanoma and in participants with lesions that were more difficult to diagnose (equivocal lesion populations). Assuming a fixed sensitivity of 90% for both tests, specificities were 82% for RCM and 42% for dermoscopy for any lesion suspicious for melanoma (9 RCM datasets; 1452 lesions and 370 melanomas). For a hypothetical population of 1000 lesions at the median observed melanoma prevalence of 30%, this equated to a reduction in unnecessary excisions with RCM of 280 compared to dermoscopy, with 30 melanomas missed by both tests. For studies in equivocal lesions, specificities of 86% would be observed for RCM and 49% for dermoscopy (7 RCM datasets; 1177 lesions and 180 melanomas). At the median observed melanoma prevalence of 20%, this reduced unnecessary excisions by 296 with RCM compared with dermoscopy, with 20 melanomas missed by both tests. Across all populations, algorithms and thresholds assessed, the sensitivity and specificity of the Pellacani RCM score at a threshold of three or greater were estimated at 92% (95% confidence interval (CI) 87 to 95) for RCM and 72% (95% CI 62 to 81) for dermoscopy. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: RCM may have a potential role in clinical practice, particularly for the assessment of lesions that are difficult to diagnose using visual inspection and dermoscopy alone, where the evidence suggests that RCM may be both more sensitive and specific in comparison to dermoscopy. Given the paucity of data to allow comparison with dermoscopy, the results presented require further confirmation in prospective studies comparing RCM with dermoscopy in a real‐world setting in a representative population.

Enhancing the effectiveness of aspirin by tailoring administration regimens is an important question among health professionals. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the evidence on the effects of different aspirin regimens in terms of timing (chronotherapy) or frequency of dosing in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Only two out of the 28 included studies reported long-term cardiovascular outcomes, highlighting an evidence gap that future research should address. The remaining 26 studies used surrogate outcomes.

Janine Dretzke,1 David Moore,1 Chirag Dave,2 Rahul Mukherjee,2 Malcolm J Price,1 Sue Bayliss,1 Xiaoying Wu,1 Rachel E Jordan,1 Alice M Turner2,3 1Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, 2Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust, Heartlands Hospital, 3Queen Elizabeth Hospital Research Laboratories, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK Introduction: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) improves survival among patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure in hospital, but evidence for its use in domiciliary settings is limited. A patient’s underlying risk of having an exacerbation may affect any potential benefit that can be gained from domiciliary NIV. This is the first comprehensive systematic review to stratify patients based on a proxy for exacerbation risk: patients in a stable state and those immediately post-exacerbation hospitalization. Methods: A systematic review of nonrandomized and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was undertaken in order to compare the relative effectiveness of different types of domiciliary NIV and usual care on hospital admissions, mortality, and health-related quality of life. Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying studies (until September 2014), quality appraisal, and synthesis. Data were presented in forest plots and pooled where appropriate using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Thirty-one studies were included. For stable patients, there was no evidence of a survival benefit from NIV (relative risk [RR] 0.88 [0.55, 1.43], I2=60.4%, n=7 RCTs), but there was a possible trend toward fewer hospitalizations (weighted mean difference -0.46 [-1.02, 0.09], I2=59.2%, n=5 RCTs) and improved health-related quality of life. For posthospital patients, survival benefit could not be demonstrated within the three RCTs (RR 0.89 [0.53, 1.49], I2=25.1%), although there was evidence of benefit from four non-RCTs (RR 0.45 [0.32, 0.65], I2=0%). Effects on hospitalizations were inconsistent. Post hoc analyses suggested that NIV-related improvements in hypercapnia were associated with reduced hospital admissions across both populations. Little data were available comparing different types of NIV. Conclusion: The effectiveness of domiciliary NIV remains uncertain; however, some patients may benefit. Further research is required to identify these patients and to explore the relevance of improvements in hypercapnia in influencing clinical outcomes. Optimum time points for commencing domiciliary NIV and equipment settings need to be established. Keywords: noninvasive ventilation, domiciliary, COPD, hospitalization, systematic review, meta-analysis

COPD self-management reduces hospital admissions and improves health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, whilst most patients are managed in primary care, the majority of self-management trials have recruited participants with more severe disease from secondary care. We report the findings of a systematic review of the effectiveness of community-based self-management interventions in primary care patients with COPD. We systematically searched eleven electronic databases and identified 12 eligible randomised controlled trials with seven included in meta-analyses for HRQoL, anxiety and depression. We report no difference in HRQoL at final follow-up (St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire total score −0.29; 95%CI −2.09, 1.51; I2 0%), nor any difference in anxiety or depression. In conclusion, supported self-management interventions delivered in the community to patients from primary care do not appear to be effective. Further research is recommended to identify effective self-management interventions suitable for primary care populations, particularly those with milder disease., Chronic Lung Disease: Towards effective self-management in primary care Further work is needed to ensure that self-management of chronic lung disease in primary care settings actively improves patients’ quality of life. While self-management is beneficial to patients in secondary care with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), few studies have examined self-management effectiveness in primary care patients with milder COPD. Kate Jolly at the University of Birmingham, UK, and co-workers identified only 12 studies out of over 12,500 that specifically examined self-management in primary care. Of these, seven were suitable for metanalysis. The team found that community-based interventions to support self-management did not make a significant difference to patients’ perceived quality of life, or in reducing anxiety and depression. They call for further research to identify specific support that will help patients with mild to moderate COPD cope and adapt to the progressive condition.

Background:\ud \ud Metastatic cancers occur when cancer cells break away from the primary tumour. One of the most common sites of metastasis is the bone. Several therapeutic options are currently available for managing bone metastases. In a resource constrained environment, policy makers and practitioners need to know which options are cost-effective.\ud \ud Objective:\ud \ud To review and appraise published economic evaluations on treatments for the management of bone metastases. \ud \ud Methods:\ud \ud We searched eight bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CSDR, DARE, HTA, EED and CPCI) for relevant economic evaluations published from each database’s inception date until March 2017. Study selection, quality assessment and data extraction were carried out according to published guidelines. \ud \ud Results:\ud \ud Twenty-four relevant economic analyses were identified. Seventeen of these studies focus on bone metastases resulting from a particular type of cancer (prostate (n=8), breast (n=7), lung (n=1) or renal (n=1)) while seven report results for various primary tumours. Across types of cancer, evidence suggests that bisphosphonates result in lower morbidity and improved quality of life, for an additional cost which is typically below conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. While denosumab leads to health gains compared to zoledronic acid, it also results in substantial additional costs and it is unlikely to represent value for money. The limited literature on the radiopharmaceutical strontium-89 (Sr89) and external beam radiotherapy (EBR) suggest that these treatments are cost-effective compared to no treatment. \ud \ud Conclusions:\ud \ud The reviewed evidence suggests that bisphosphonate treatments are cost-effective options for bone metastases, while denosumab is unlikely to represent value for money. Evidence on EBR and Sr89 is limited and less conclusive.

Background Integrated reminders within clinical systems have become more prevalent due to the use of electronic health records and evidence demonstrating an increase in compliance within practice. Clinical reminders are assessed for effectiveness on an individual basis, rather than in combination with existing prompts for other conditions. The growing number of prompts may be counter-productive as healthcare professionals are increasingly suffering from “reminder fatigue” meaning many reminders are ignored. This work will review the qualitative evidence to identify barriers and enablers of existing prompts found within computerised decision support systems. Our focus will be on primary care where clinicians have to negotiate a plethora of reminders as they deal with increasingly complex patients and sophisticated treatment regimes. The review will provide a greater understanding of existing systems and the way clinicians interact with them to inform the development of more effective and targeted clinical reminders. Methods A comprehensive search using piloted terms will be used to identify relevant literature from 1960 (or commencement of database) to 2017. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process, EMBASE, HMIC, PsycINFO, CDSR DARE, HTA, CINAHL and CPCI, will be searched, as well as grey literature and references and citations of included papers. Manuscripts will be assessed for eligibility, bias and quality using the CASP tool with narrative data being included and questionnaire based studies excluded. Inductive thematic analysis will be performed in order to produce a conceptual framework defining the key barriers around integrated clinical reminders. Discussion Indications of alert and reminder fatigue are found throughout the current literature. However, this has not been fully investigated using a robust qualitative approach, particularly in a rapidly growing body of evidence. This review will aid people forming new clinical systems so that alerts can be incorporated appropriately. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42016029418 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13643-017-0627-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Diagnostic test accuracy). The objectives are as follows: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of SLNB for the detection of nodal metastases (in the investigated nodal basin) for the staging of cutaneous invasive melanoma. To determine the diagnostic accuracy of imaging tests for the detection of any metastasis in the primary staging of cutaneous invasive melanoma (i.e. staging at presentation). To determine the diagnostic accuracy of imaging tests for the detection of any metastasis in the staging of recurrence in cutaneous invasive melanoma (i.e. re-staging prompted by findings on routine follow-up). To determine the diagnostic accuracy of imaging tests for the detection of nodal metastases in the staging of cutaneous invasive melanoma. To determine the diagnostic accuracy of imaging tests for the detection of distant metastases in the staging of cutaneous invasive melanoma. These will be estimated separately for those undergoing primary staging and those who have experienced a disease recurrence. Investigation of sources of heterogeneity: We will consider a range of potential sources of heterogeneity for investigation in each individual test review. These may vary between reviews but may include the following. i. Population characteristics: * AJCC stage of disease * Sentinel lymph node status (for imaging studies only) * Clinical nodal status (for imaging studies only) * Primary tumour site (head and neck, trunk, limb, and other) ii. Index test characteristics: * Differences in test positivity thresholds (e.g. for SLNB, the tracer threshold for a 'hot' versus 'cold' node) * Other relevant test characteristics as appropriate to the test under consideration iii. Reference standard characteristics: * Reference standard used (histology, clinical or imaging-based follow-up; concurrent imaging-based reference standard) iv. Study quality: * Consecutive or random sample of participants recruited * Index test interpreted, blinded to the reference standard result * Index test interpreted, blinded to the result of any other index test * Presence of partial or differential verification bias (whereby only a sample of those subject to the index test are verified by the reference test or by the same reference test, with selection dependent on the index test result) * Use of an adequate reference standard * Overall risk of bias We will examine the quality and quantity of research evidence available on the effectiveness of each index test for the primary target condition and make recommendations regarding where further research might be required.

Background: COPD self-management (SM) reduces hospital admissions and improves health related quality of life (HRQoL). However, most SM trials have identified participants from secondary care. This systematic review aimed to determine the effectiveness of SM interventions in primary care patients with COPD. Methods: A comprehensive search strategy from the inception of each electronic database until May 2012 for randomised controlled trials sought: population: people with a diagnosis of COPD recruited from primary care; intervention: support for COPD SM; comparator groups: any; outcomes: primary-HRQoL; secondary included anxiety, depression and health care utilisation. An updated search focussed on primary care was undertaken to July 2016. Study selection was undertaken independently in duplicate; data extraction and risk of bias assessment by one reviewer with a sample checked. Meta-analyses used a random effects model. PROSPERO registration CRD4206043958. Results: From 12,146 abstracts, we identified twelve eligible RCTs; 7 were included in the meta-analyses. Trials ranged from 52 to 8217 participants, last follow-up from 3 months to 4 years. The interventions were heterogeneous; duration ranged from 4 weeks to 2 years. There was no difference in HRQoL at last follow-up (SGRQ total score -0.19, (95%CI -1.28 to 0.89; I2 0%), nor any difference in the CRQ. HADS anxiety was significantly lower in the SM group: -0.85 (95%CI -1.22 to -0.48; I2 16.9%). Discussion Self-management interventions for COPD in primary care show promise in reducing patient anxiety, but no effect on HRQoL. The heterogeneity of outcome measures precluded synthesis of the full evidence.

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (Diagnostic test accuracy). The objectives are as follows: SOURCES OF HETEROGENEITY: We will consider a range of potential sources of heterogeneity for investigation in each individual test review. These may vary between reviews but may include the following. I. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS: Primary tumour site (head and neck, trunk, limb, and other). Primary staging versus mixed or unclear populations (i.e. including staging of recurrent disease); II. INDEX TEST CHARACTERISTICS: Differences in test positivity thresholds; III. REFERENCE STANDARD CHARACTERISTICS: Reference standard used (histology, clinical or imaging‐based follow‐up); IV. STUDY QUALITY: Consecutive or random sample of participants recruited. Index test interpreted blinded to the result of any other index test. Presence of partial or differential verification bias (whereby only a sample of those subject to the index test are verified by the reference test or by the same reference test with selection dependent on the index test result). Use of an adequate reference standard. Overall risk of bias. We anticipate that the volume of evidence retrieved will be small and will restrict our ability to formally investigate these sources of heterogeneity; however, data permitting, we will examine any impact on the effectiveness of each index test for the primary target condition and make recommendations for where further research might be required.

Background This case study documents the experience of searching for information on the effectiveness of population-level multi-factor interventions for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to inform guidance from NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence). Objectives To compare suitability of different databases for searches on a medical public health topic and performance of sensitive versus specific strategies. Methods A sensitive search strategy identified 34 CVD programmes (reference standard) and sensitivity, precision and number needed to read (NNTR) were compared across seven databases. Two alternative strategies were developed to improve precision while minimising the impact on sensitivity. Results MEDLINE alone retrieved 91% (31/34) relevant programme citations. Four databases (MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ASSIA and PsycINFO) were required to identify all 34 programmes. In the alternative strategies, greater use of MeSH rather than text and focus on terms directed at population-level interventions resulted in a more precise search on MEDLINE. Conclusions MEDLINE alone provided a better yield than anticipated. Additional databases improved sensitivity by 9% but to the detriment of precision. Retrospective searching would provide additional insight into the performance of both databases and strategies. How the medical nature of this public health topic affected yield across databases also requires further investigation.

This study is based on a systematic review of studies using a randomized controlled trial or quasi-experimental design in order to synthesize existing evidence evaluating the effectiveness of continuing professional development (CPD) interventions in dentistry on learning gains, behavior change, or patient outcomes. The authors searched a range of electronic databases from 1986 to the present and screened all potentially relevant studies for inclusion, using pre-established inclusion/exclusion criteria. Following data extraction and quality appraisal of all included studies, a narrative synthesis of the studies was undertaken. Ten studies (in fourteen articles) were included. All were evaluation studies of CPD interventions targeted exclusively at dentists. The ten included studies evaluated a range of interventions: courses/workshops, written information, CAL, audit/self-reflection, face-to-face support, and black box combinations of these interventions. Two high- and moderately high-quality studies evaluated CAL CPD for dentists and found equivocal impact of CAL for dentists. A black box combination of interventions was rigorously evaluated and showed moderate impact on patient care. This finding suggests that multimethod and multiphased CPD has potential for the greatest impact. There is a need for more high-quality randomized controlled trials evaluating CPD interventions in dentistry. It is important that future evaluations of CPD interventions clarify the nature of the interventions such that they are explicit and replicable and that appropriate outcomes are selected (health of patients and change in practice or behavior as well as knowledge and understanding) in order to move the evidence base of effective practice forward in this area of dental education.

Traditionally, the management of bleeding trauma patients has included early rapid fluid replacement on scene. However, evidence shows that a delay to definitive treatment (control of bleeding) may be harmful and UK policy advocates minimal delay on scene with intravenous fluids being administered in transit to hospitals. This paper systematically reviews the evidence for administering fluids in pre-hospital trauma patients with no head injury. Randomized controlled trials comparing immediate and delayed fluid replacement were sought using formal search strategies. Study selection, quality assessment and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers using pre-defined criteria. We found no evidence to suggest that pre-hospital fluid administration is beneficial. There is some evidence that it may be harmful and that patients do comparatively well when fluids are withheld. However, this evidence is not conclusive, particularly for blunt trauma, and is not sufficient to disprove current UK policy, which recommends hypotensive resuscitation. © 2006 Sage Publications.

BackgroundUnprovoked first venous thromboembolism (VTE) is defined as VTE in the absence of a temporary provoking factor such as surgery, immobility and other temporary factors. Recurrent VTE in unprovoked patients is highly prevalent, but easily preventable with oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy. The unprovoked population is highly heterogeneous in terms of risk of recurrent VTE.ObjectivesThe first aim of the project is to review existing prognostic models which stratify individuals by their recurrence risk, therefore potentially allowing tailored treatment strategies. The second aim is to enhance the existing research in this field, by developing and externally validating a new prognostic model for individual risk prediction, using a pooled database containing individual patient data (IPD) from several studies. The final aim is to assess the economic cost-effectiveness of the proposed prognostic model if it is used as a decision rule for resuming OAC therapy, compared with current standard treatment strategies.MethodsStandard systematic review methodology was used to identify relevant prognostic model development, validation and cost-effectiveness studies. Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. Reviewing was undertaken by two reviewers independently using pre-defined criteria. Included full-text articles were data extracted and quality assessed. Critical appraisal of included full texts was undertaken and comparisons made of model performance. A prognostic model was developed using IPD from the pooled database of seven trials. A novel internal–external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to develop and validate a prognostic model, with external validation undertaken in each of the trials iteratively. Given good performance in the IECV approach, a final model was developed using all trials data. A Markov patient-level simulation was used to consider the economic cost-effectiveness of using a decision rule (based on the prognostic model) to decide on resumption of OAC therapy (or not).ResultsThree full-text articles were identified by the systematic review. Critical appraisal identified methodological and applicability issues; in particular, all three existing models did not have external validation. To address this, new prognostic models were sought with external validation. Two potential models were considered: one for use at cessation of therapy (pre D-dimer), and one for use after cessation of therapy (post D-dimer). Model performance measured in the external validation trials showed strong calibration performance for both models. The post D-dimer model performed substantially better in terms of discrimination (c = 0.69), better separating high- and low-risk patients. The economic evaluation identified that a decision rule based on the final post D-dimer model may be cost-effective for patients with predicted risk of recurrence of over 8% annually; this suggests continued therapy for patients with predicted risks ≥ 8% and cessation of therapy otherwise.ConclusionsThe post D-dimer model performed strongly and could be useful to predict individuals’ risk of recurrence at any time up to 2–3 years, thereby aiding patient counselling and treatment decisions. A decision rule using this model may be cost-effective for informing clinical judgement and patient opinion in treatment decisions. Further research may investigate new predictors to enhance model performance and aim to further externally validate to confirm performance in new, non-trial populations. Finally, it is essential that further research is conducted to develop a model predicting bleeding risk on therapy, to manage the balance between the risks of recurrence and bleeding.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003494.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Introduction: Ambulatory oxygen therapy is indicated in patients that use long term oxygen therapy (LTOT) and current guidelines suggest its use in patients who exhibit exertional desaturation if there is a demonstrable improvement in exercise capacity. Evidence for this is largely derived from single assessment studies which have shown clear benefit in this setting when oxygen versus air is used. The long term effects, however, of ambulatory oxygen therapy in this particular group of patients is controversial. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of published literature from 1980 to June 2014 for trials in which ambulatory oxygen was compared to placebo in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients not on LTOT. We also reviewed the effectiveness of devices delivering ambulatory oxygen. Outcome measures were focused towards exercise capacity, Borg scores and the ability of the delivery devices to maintain oxygen saturations on exercise. Results: Twenty three studies (620 patients) were included in the review. Nine studies evaluated the clinical effectiveness of ambulatory oxygen and 14 studies evaluated the impact of the delivery devices. Ambulatory oxygen had no statistical effect on improving exercise capacity when assessed by the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) or the endurance shuttle walk test (ESWT);p=0.44 and p=0.29 respectively. End of test Borg scores showed no statistical improvement with ambulatory oxygen therapy during 6MWT (p=0.68). Oxygen conserving devices significantly improved oxygen saturations on exercise compared with continuous flow nasal cannulae (p=0.04). Conclusion: Ambulatory oxygen therapy has limited long term benefit in improving functional exercise capacity or Borg dyspnea scores.

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To establish the accuracy of symptoms, ultrasound and biomarkers alone or in combination for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in pre- and postmenopausal women. To compare the accuracy of different tests or test combinations. We will investigate the following sources of heterogeneity: Population Clinical setting (generalist/primary care/community/family practice) versus specialist setting (cancer unit/cancer centre/gynaecological oncology) Menopausal status Index tests Test positivity threshold Experience of the ultrasound test operator (general sonographers versus specialist interest) Target condition Histological subtype Study quality Case-control versus other study designs Study quality: for study participants not receiving surgery initially following a negative index test result: 12 months follow-up versus less than 12 months follow-up

In this systematic review, the authors aimed to assess the effectiveness of community programs for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). They searched numerous electronic databases (CDSR, DARE, HTA, EED, and CENTRAL via the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, HMIC, and ASSIA) and relevant Web sites from January 1970 to mid-July 2008. Controlled studies of community programs for the primary prevention of CVD were included. Net changes in CVD risk factors were used to generate an overall index for net change in 10-year CVD risk. The authors identified 36 relevant community programs that took place between 1970 and 2008. These programs were multifaceted interventions employing combinations of media, screening, and counseling activities and environmental changes and were primarily evaluated using controlled before-after studies. In 7 studies, investigators reported changes in CVD/total mortality rates, and in 5 they reported net changes. In all cases, these net changes were positive but were largely nonsignificant. In 22 studies, investigators reported changes in physiologic CVD risk factors, and there was a positive trend in the calculated CVD risk score. The average net reduction in 10-year CVD risk was 0.65%. Community programs for CVD prevention appear to have generally achieved favorable changes in overall CVD risk and, with adaptation to current circumstances, deserve continued consideration as possible approaches to preventing CVD.

Objectives:The aim of this study was to examine location of systematic reviews of test accuracy in five specialist review databases: York CRD's DARE and HTA databases, Medion (University of Maastricht), C-EBLM (International Federation of Clinical Chemistry), and the ARIF in-house database (University of Birmingham).Methods:Searches were limited to the period 1996–2006. Test accuracy reviews were located using in-house diagnostic search filters and with help from database producers where databases were not confined to test accuracy reviews. References were coded according to disease area, review purpose, and test application. Ease of use, volume, overlap, and content of databases was noted.Results:A large degree of overlap existed between databases. Medion contained the largest number (n= 672) and the largest number of unique (n= 328) test accuracy references. A combination of three databases identified only 76% of test reviews. All databases were rated as easy to search but varied with respect to timeliness and compatibility with reference management software. Most reviews evaluated test accuracy (85%) but the HTA database had a larger proportion of cost-effectiveness and screening reviews and C-EBLM more reviews addressing early test development. Most reviews were conducted in secondary care settings.Conclusions:Specialist review databases offer an essential addition to general bibliographic databases where application of diagnostic method filters can compromise search sensitivity. Important differences exist between databases in terms of ease of use and content. Our findings raise the question whether the current balance of research setting, in particular the predominance of research on tests used in secondary care, matches the needs of decision makers.

BackgroundSelf-management (SM) support for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is variable in its coverage, content, method and timing of delivery. There is insufficient evidence for which SM interventions are the most effective and cost-effective.ObjectivesTo undertake (1) a systematic review of the evidence for the effectiveness of SM interventions commencing within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation for COPD (review 1); (2) a systematic review of the qualitative evidence about patient satisfaction, acceptance and barriers to SM interventions (review 2); (3) a systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of SM support interventions within 6 weeks of hospital discharge for an exacerbation of COPD (review 3); (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis and economic model of post-exacerbation SM support compared with usual care (UC) (economic model); and (5) a wider systematic review of the evidence of the effectiveness of SM support, including interventions (such as pulmonary rehabilitation) in which there are significant components of SM, to identify which components are the most important in reducing exacerbations, hospital admissions/readmissions and improving quality of life (review 4).MethodsThe following electronic databases were searched from inception to May 2012: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Science Citation Index [Institute of Scientific Information (ISI)]. Subject-specific databases were also searched: PEDro physiotherapy evidence database, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Airways Group Register of Trials. Ongoing studies were sourced through themetaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number database, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. Specialist abstract and conference proceedings were sourced through ISI’s Conference Proceedings Citation Index and British Library’s Electronic Table of Contents (Zetoc). Hand-searching through European Respiratory Society, the American Thoracic Society and British Thoracic Society conference proceedings from 2010 to 2012 was also undertaken, and selected websites were also examined. Title, abstracts and full texts of potentially relevant studies were scanned by two independent reviewers. Primary studies were included if ≈90% of the population had COPD, the majority were of at least moderate severity and reported on any intervention that included a SM component or package. Accepted study designs and outcomes differed between the reviews. Risk of bias for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was assessed using the Cochrane tool. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to combine studies where appropriate. A Markov model, taking a 30-year time horizon, compared a SM intervention immediately following a hospital admission for an acute exacerbation with UC. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years were calculated, with sensitivity analyses.ResultsFrom 13,355 abstracts, 10 RCTs were included for review 1, one study each for reviews 2 and 3, and 174 RCTs for review 4. Available studies were heterogeneous and many were of poor quality. Meta-analysis identified no evidence of benefit of post-discharge SM support on admissions [hazard ratio (HR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52 to 1.17], mortality (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.54) and most other health outcomes. A modest improvement in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was identified but this was possibly biased due to high loss to follow-up. The economic model was speculative due to uncertainty in impact on readmissions. Compared with UC, post-discharge SM support (delivered within 6 weeks of discharge) was more costly and resulted in better outcomes (£683 cost difference and 0.0831 QALY gain). Studies assessing the effect of individual components were few but only exercise significantly improved HRQoL (3-month St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire 4.87, 95% CI 3.96 to 5.79). Multicomponent interventions produced an improved HRQoL compared with UC (mean difference 6.50, 95% CI 3.62 to 9.39, at 3 months). Results were consistent with a potential reduction in admissions. Interventions with more enhanced care from health-care professionals improved HRQoL and reduced admissions at 1-year follow-up. Interventions that included supervised or unsupervised structured exercise resulted in significant and clinically important improvements in HRQoL up to 6 months.LimitationsThis review was based on a comprehensive search strategy that should have identified most of the relevant studies. The main limitations result from the heterogeneity of studies available and widespread problems with their design and reporting.ConclusionsThere was little evidence of benefit of providing SM support to patients shortly after discharge from hospital, although effects observed were consistent with possible improvement in HRQoL and reduction in hospital admissions. It was not easy to tease out the most effective components of SM support packages, although interventions containing exercise seemed the most effective. Future work should include qualitative studies to explore barriers and facilitators to SM post exacerbation and novel approaches to affect behaviour change, tailored to the individual and their circumstances. Any new trials should be properly designed and conducted, with special attention to reducing loss to follow-up. Individual participant data meta-analysis may help to identify the most effective components of SM interventions.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001588.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

BackgroundThe use of aspirin is well established for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. However, a proportion of patients suffer repeat cardiovascular events despite being prescribed aspirin treatment. It is uncertain whether or not this is due to an inherent inability of aspirin to sufficiently modify platelet activity. This report aims to investigate whether or not insufficient platelet function inhibition by aspirin (‘aspirin resistance‘), as defined using platelet function tests (PFTs), is linked to the occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes, and further, whether or not patients at risk of future adverse clinical events can be identified through PFTs.ObjectivesTo review systematically the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness evidence regarding the association between PFT designation of ‘aspirin resistance’ and the risk of adverse clinical outcome(s) in patients prescribed aspirin therapy. To undertake exploratory model-based cost-effectiveness analysis on the use of PFTs.Data sourcesBibliographic databases (e.g. MEDLINE from inception and EMBASE from 1980), conference proceedings and ongoing trial registries up to April 2012.MethodsStandard systematic review methods were used for identifying clinical and cost studies. A risk-of-bias assessment tool was adapted from checklists for prognostic and diagnostic studies. (Un)adjusted odds and hazard ratios for the association between ‘aspirin resistance’, for different PFTs, and clinical outcomes are presented; however, heterogeneity between studies precluded pooling of results. A speculative economic model of a PFT and change of therapy strategy was developed.ResultsOne hundred and eight relevant studies using a variety of PFTs, 58 in patients on aspirin monotherapy, were analysed in detail. Results indicated that some PFTs may have some prognostic utility, i.e. a trend for more clinical events to be associated with groups classified as ‘aspirin resistant’. Methodological and clinical heterogeneity prevented a quantitative summary of prognostic effect. Study-level effect sizes were generally small and absolute outcome risk was not substantially different between ‘aspirin resistant’ and ‘aspirin sensitive’ designations.No studies on the cost-effectiveness of PFTs for ‘aspirin resistance’ were identified. Based on assumptions of PFTs being able to accurately identify patients at high risk of clinical events and such patients benefiting from treatment modification, the economic model found that a test–treat strategy was likely to be cost-effective. However, neither assumption is currently evidence based.LimitationsPoor or incomplete reporting of studies suggests a potentially large volume of inaccessible data. Analyses were confined to studies on patients prescribed aspirin as sole antiplatelet therapy at the time of PFT. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies precluded meta-analysis. Given the lack of robust data the economic modelling was speculative.ConclusionsAlthough evidence indicates that some PFTs may have some prognostic value, methodological and clinical heterogeneity between studies and different approaches to analyses create confusion and inconsistency in prognostic results, and prevented a quantitative summary of their prognostic effect. Protocol-driven and adequately powered primary studies are needed, using standardised methods of measurements to evaluate the prognostic ability of each test in the same population(s), and ideally presenting individual patient data. For any PFT to inform individual risk prediction, it will likely need to be considered in combination with other prognostic factors, within a prognostic model.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO 2012:CRD42012002151.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Surgery for craniosynostosis is associated with the potential for significant blood loss. Multiple technologies have been introduced to reduce the volume of blood transfused. These are preoperative autologous donation; preoperative erythropoietin; intraoperative cell salvage (CS); acute normovolemic hemodilution; antifibrinolytic drugs such as tranexamic acid, ε-aminocaproic acid, and aprotinin; fibrin sealants or fibrin glue; and postoperative drain reinfusion.All comparative studies with a treatment group and a control group were considered. There was a range of different study types from randomized controlled trials to case series with historic controls. These were intervention versus no intervention or a comparison of 2 interventions. Studies were identified by searching Cochrane CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE; manufacturer's Web sites; and bibliographies of relevant published articles. The primary outcome measures were the number of allogeneic blood donor exposures, the volume of allogeneic blood transfused, and the postoperative hemoglobin or hematocrit levels.A total of 696 studies were identified. After removal of duplicates and after exclusion criteria were applied, there were 18 studies to be included. Fourteen were case series with controls and 4 were randomized controlled trials.The production of high-quality evidence on the interventions to minimize blood loss and transfusion in children undergoing surgery for craniosynostosis is difficult. Most of the literature is nonrandomized and noncomparative. Several areas remain unaddressed. Erythropoietin and tranexamic acid are comparatively well studied; CS, acute normovolemic hemodilution, and aprotinin are less so. There is only 1 comparative study on the use of fibrin glue and drain reinfusion, with no studies on preoperative autologous donation and [Latin Small Letter Open E]-aminocaproic acid. Tranexamic acid is clinically effective in reducing allogeneic blood transfusion. There is some evidence that CS and erythropoietin may be clinically effective. None of the interventions studied are shown to be cost-effective because of lack of evidence.

© 2014 © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Journal of Hypertension. BACKGROUND An exaggerated morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) may be associated with stroke and other cardiovascular events, but the threshold at which an MBPS becomes pathological is unclear. This study aimed to systematically review the existing literature and establish the most appropriate definition of pathological MBPS. METHODS A MEDLINE search strategy was adapted for a range of literature databases to identify all prospective studies relating an exaggerated MBPS to cardiovascular endpoints. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted and synthesized using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS The search strategy identified 2,964 unique articles, of which 17 were eligible for the study. Seven different definitions of MBPS were identified; the most common was a prewaking surge (mean blood pressure for 2 hours after wake-up minus mean blood pressure for 2 hours before wake-up; n = 6 studies). Summary meta-analysis gave no clear evidence that prewaking MBPS (defined by a predetermined threshold: >25-55mm Hg) was associated with all cardiovascular events (n = 2 studies; HR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39-2.28) or stroke (n = 2 studies; HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.92-1.71). However, using a continuous scale, which has more power to detect an association, there was evidence that a 10 mm Hg increase in MBPS was related to an increased risk of stroke (n = 3 studies; HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03-1.20). CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that when measured and analyzed as a continuous variable, increasing levels of MBPS may be associated with increased risk of stroke. Large, protocol-driven individual patient data analyses are needed to accurately define this relationship further.

This is an updated systematic review of 57 trials and 9353 cancer patients from articles, abstracts, and reports published between January 1, 1985, and April 30, 2005, on the effects of epoetin alfa and beta (i.e., epoetin) and darbepoetin alfa (i.e., darbepoetin). We included randomized controlled trials comparing epoetin or darbepoetin plus red blood cell transfusion with red blood cell transfusion alone for prophylaxis or treatment of anemia in cancer patients with or without concurrent antineoplastic therapy. The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and conference proceedings were searched. Effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with fixed-effects models. Treatment with epoetin or darbepoetin statistically significantly reduced the risk for red blood cell transfusions (relative risk [RR] = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.68; 42 trials and 6510 patients) and improved hematologic response (RR = 3.43, 95% CI = 3.07 to 3.84; 22 trials and 4307 patients). Treatment with epoetin or darbepoetin increased the risk of thrombo-embolic events (RR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.35 to 2.06; 35 trials and 6769 patients). Uncertainties remain as to whether and how epoetin or darbepoetin affects overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.18; 42 trials and 8167 patients). Caution is advised when using epoetin or darbepoetin in combination with thrombogenic chemotherapeutic agents or for cancer patients who are at high risk for thrombo-embolic events.

Objectives:The aim of this study was to evaluate the success of search strategies in retrieving key documents for a technology assessment report (TAR) on a social care topic.Methods:This study measured the differential yield of relevant studies from various information sources and evaluated strategies in different databases, with particular reference to capturing randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as a study design.Results:A combination of four major databases would have found all thirty-two key references. One database alone would have found 78 percent, with another two each locating 59 percent. Sixteen percent of the trials were unique references. In non–health care databases, more sensitive search strategies would have resulted in a higher yield of relevant studies, in part due to inconsistent indexing and in part to attempts to restrict searches to RCTs. Although additional terms could be used to increase the sensitivity of the original strategies, this raises the question of trading off time against exhaustiveness, given the greater number of irrelevant references likely to be retrieved.Conclusions:A successful search for evidence on this social care topic would be possible using a combination of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and PsycINFO, supplemented by only limited use of supplementary databases. In areas such as social care where evidence-based research is not yet well established, attempts to replicate searches based on study design do not seem to be advisable, although this may be an area for future research.

In this systematic review, we identified and evaluated studies of the cost effectiveness of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) for the treatment of chronic pain. Published reports were identified from a systematic search of a number of general medical electronic databases (Medline, CINAHL, and EMBASE), and specialist economic databases (NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination Economic Evaluation Database, and Health Economics Evaluation Database). Reference lists of retrieved reports were also searched, and contact was made with experts in the field. Of the 99 abstracts identified, 14 studies were considered to meet the inclusion criteria of the review. We found that across a range of medical indications, the initial healthcare acquisition costs of SCS implantation are consistently offset by a reduction in post-implant healthcare resource demand and costs. Further research is required to formally examine the cost effectiveness of SCS.

Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited. This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. A routine part of the process for developing National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) medical technologies guidance is a submission of clinical and economic evidence by the technology manufacturer. The Birmingham and Brunel Consortium External Assessment Centre (EAC; a consortium of the University of Birmingham and Brunel University) independently appraised the submission on the EXOGEN bone healing system for long bone fractures with non-union or delayed healing. This article is an overview of the original evidence submitted, the EAC’s findings, and the final NICE guidance issued. The Birmingham and Brunel Consortium is funded by NICE to act as an External Assessment Centre for the Medical Technologies Evaluation Programme.

Introduction Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (AATD) is a rare genetic condition predisposing individuals to COPD. The majority of treatment for AATD is similar to non-AATD related COPD; intravenous augmentation of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin is a specific treatment but is inequitably used across Europe and not used in the UK. There is a pressing need to systematically investigate efficacy since the publication of a new placebo controlled RCT and to identify patient centred, clinically meaningful outcomes. 1 Methods A systematic review was conducted using standard review methodology with meta-analysis and narrative synthesis (registered with PROSPERO-CRD42015019354). Eligible studies were those of any treatment used in severe AATD. RCT’s were the primary focus however case series and uncontrolled studies (n > 10 patients receiving treatment or usual care, with baseline and follow-up data >3 months), were eligible for inclusion to ensure natural history of disease outside RCT’s could be determined. Results 7296 unique records were reviewed with 51 trials analysed on 5632 participants: 26 AAT-augmentation (3 for meta-analysis); 17 surgical intervention (5 Lung volume reduction (LVR) surgery, 1 Bronchoscopic valve LVR and 11 Lung transplantation); 3 medical interventions and 3 trials completed but not published. Meta-analysis of AAT-Augmentation demonstrated slower lung CT density decline, difference 0.79 g/l/year (95% CI: 0.29–1.29; p = 0.002), and a small increase in annual exacerbations 0.29/year (95% CI: 0.04–0.54; p = 0.02) compared to placebo (Figure 1). Survival benefit of transplant was observed in one study (p = 0.006) but not in a second with more stringent matching for groups; however significant improvements in health status, total SGRQ and all domain scores, at one year (p Conclusion CT density, FEV1, DLCO, health status and exacerbation rates were frequently used as outcomes in AATD related treatment trials. AAT-Augmentation is able to slow the progression of severity of emphysema when measured by CT density change compared to placebo. This systematic review will help assist in the improved monitoring and management of patients with AATD. Reference 1 Chapman KR, et al . Intravenous augmentation treatment and lung density in severe α1 antitrypsin deficiency (RAPID): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. The Lancet 2015; 386 (9991):360–368.

Background Oxygen (O-2) is widely used in people with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Previous systematic reviews concluded that there was insufficient evidence to know whether oxygen reduced, increased or had no effect on heart ischaemia or infarct size. Our first Cochrane review in 2010 also concluded there was insufficient evidence to know whether oxygen should be used. Since 2010, the lack of evidence to support this widely used intervention has attracted considerable attention, prompting further trials of oxygen therapy in myocardial infarction patients. It is thus important to update this Cochrane review. Objectives To assess the effects of routine use of inhaled oxygen for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Search methods We searched the following bibliographic databases on 6 June 2015: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (OVID), Embase (OVID), CINAHL (EBSCO) and Web of Science (Thomson Reuters). LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature) was last searched in September 2016. We also contacted experts to identify eligible studies. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials in people with suspected or proven AMI (ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-STEMI) within 24 hours after onset, in which the intervention was inhaled oxygen (at normal pressure) compared to air, regardless of co-therapies provided to participants in both arms of the trial. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently reviewed the titles and abstracts of identified studies to see if they met the inclusion criteria and independently undertook the data extraction. We assessed the quality of studies and the risk of bias according to guidance in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. The primary outcome was death. The measure of effect used was the risk ratio (RR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We used the GRADE approach to evaluate the quality of the evidence and the GRADE profiler (GRADEpro) to import data from Review Manager 5 and create 'Summary of findings' tables. Main results The updated search yielded one new trial, for a total of five included studies involving 1173 participants, 32 of whom died. The pooled risk ratio (RR) of all-cause mortality in the intention-to-treat analysis was 0.99 (95% CI 0.50 to 1.95; 4 studies, N = 1123; I-2 = 46%; quality of evidence: very low) and 1.02 (95% CI 0.52 to 1.98; 4 studies, N = 871; I-2 = 49%; quality of evidence: very low) when only analysing participants with confirmed AMI. One trial measured pain directly, and two others measured it by opiate usage. The trial showed no effect, with a pooled RR of 0.97 for the use of opiates (95% CI 0.78 to 1.20; 2 studies, N = 250). The result on mortality and pain are inconclusive. There is no clear effect for oxygen on infarct size (the evidence is inconsistent and low quality). Authors' conclusions There is no evidence from randomised controlled trials to support the routine use of inhaled oxygen in people with AMI, and we cannot rule out a harmful effect. Given the uncertainty surrounding the effect of oxygen therapy on all-cause mortality and on other outcomes critical for clinical decision, well-conducted, high quality randomised controlled trials are urgently required to inform guidelines in order to give definitive recommendations about the routine use of oxygen in AMI.

Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a chronic disease, with fatal recurrences occurring in 5% to 9% of patients, yet it is also one of the best examples of preventable disease. Prognostic models that utilise multiple prognostic factors (demographic, clinical and laboratory patient characteristics) in combination to predict individual outcome risk may allow the identification of patients who would benefit from long-term anticoagulation therapy, and conversely those that would benefit from stopping such therapy due to a low risk of recurrence. The study will systematically review the evidence on potential prognostic models for the recurrence of VTE or adverse outcomes following the cessation of therapy, and synthesise and summarise each model’s prognostic value. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42013003494). Methods/design Articles will be sought from the Cochrane library (CENTRAL, CDSR, DARE, HTA databases), MEDLINE and EMBASE. Trial registers will be searched for ongoing studies, and conference abstracts will be sought. Reference lists and subject experts will be utilised. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Studies of any design will be included if they examine, in patients ceasing therapy after at least three months’ treatment with an oral anticoagulant therapy, whether more than one factor in combination is associated with the risk of VTE recurrence or another adverse outcome. Study quality will be assessed using appropriate guidelines for prognostic models. Prognostic models will be summarised qualitatively and, if tested in multiple validation studies, their predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity. Discussion The results of the review will identify prognostic models for the risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. These will be informative for clinicians currently treating patients for a first unprovoked VTE and considering whether to stop treatment or not for particular individuals. The conclusions of the review will also inform the potential development of new prognostic models and clinical prediction rules to identify those at high or low risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following a first unprovoked VTE.

Background NIV is very effective when used acutely in hospital during acute exacerbations of COPD, however, evidence supporting its use in a home setting for more stable COPD patients is limited. In the UK domiciliary NIV is considered by many clinicians on health economic grounds in patients after three hospital admissions for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Previous systematic reviews of domiciliary NIV have been limited in scope and required updating. Methods Standard systematic review methods were used for identifying relevant clinical and cost-effectiveness studies of any appropriate design assessing NIV compared to usual care, or comparing different types of NIV. Risk of bias was assessed and checked. Primary effectiveness outcomes (mortality, hospitalisations, exacerbations and quality-of-life) were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Results were grouped into patients given NIV within 6 weeks of a hospital admission requiring inpatient NIV and those given NIV when stable. Results Thirty controlled effectiveness studies were identified reporting a variety of outcomes, together with 65 uncontrolled studies. Benefit from NIV in terms of survival and hospital admissions in controlled studies was variable, and where present appeared most marked in post-hospital patients (based on limited evidence). For more stable patients, a modest volume of evidence found no benefit from NIV for survival and some non-significant beneficial trends for hospitalisations and quality-of life. No conclusions could be drawn regarding potential benefit from different types of NIV due to limited study sizes and heterogeneity. Conclusions Domiciliary NIV has greatest effect when used after a hypercapnic exacerbation and might improve hospitalisation rates and mortality in this group of patients. There is no benefit if used in stable, normocapnic patients. This abstract summarises independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its HTA Programme (Ref 11/27/01). The views expressed are those of the author (s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.