1. Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics
- Author
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Glennerster, Rachel, Snyder, Christopher M., and Tan, Brandon Joel
- Subjects
Vaccination -- Forecasts and trends -- Statistics -- Health aspects -- Economic aspects ,Vaccines -- Statistics ,Market trend/market analysis ,Banking, finance and accounting industries ,Business ,Business, international ,International Monetary Fund -- Statistics - Abstract
While Covid-19 vaccines were developed and deployed with unprecedented speed, their widespread introduction could have been accelerated--saving millions of lives and trillions of dollars--had more vaccine capacity been available prior to the pandemic. Combining estimates of the frequency and intensity of pandemics with estimates of mortality, economic-output, and human-capital losses from pandemics of varying severities, we calculate that the present value of global social losses from the stream of future pandemics can be expected to be nearly $18 trillion--over $700 billion each year going forward. According to our model, a program spending $60 billion up front to expand production capacity and supply-chain inputs for vaccines and $5 billion annually thereafter would be sufficient to ensure production capacity to vaccinate 70% of the global population against a new virus within six months. The program would generate an expected net present value (NPV) gain of more than $500 billion over the status quo of delaying investment until a pandemic arrives. A program undertaken by the USA alone would generate an expected NPV gain of over $60 billion. JEL Classification 115 * 118 ? L65 * H44, 1 Introduction By 2024, it is estimated that the Covid-19 pandemic will have reduced economic output by $13.8 trillion relative to pre-pandemic forecasts (International Monetary Fund 2022). The pandemic resulted [...]
- Published
- 2023
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