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The aim of this study is to determine the effects of geopolitical risk, representing macropolitical factors that may affect number of inbound tourists, and economic policy uncertainty, representing macro-level events, and exchange rates, on inbound tourists to Mexico over the period January 1996 - December 2018 by using Fourier ARDL and Fourier Toda Yamamoto causality tests. The ARDL analysis showed that inbound tourists to Mexico decrease in the long-run as economic policy uncertainty increases and increase in the long-run as geopolitical risk and real exchange rates increase. Causality tests revealed unidirectional causality running from economic policy uncertainty to inbound tourists.

The "economic sentiment" indices, which reflect the short-term outlook of an economy, have been used in some developed countries for many years. The ZEW index created by the European Economic Research Center in Germany (Zentrum für Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung-ZEW) is one of these indices and is used as an indicator of the short-term prospects of the German economy. Economic Confidence Index (EGE) is a similar tool applied by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TüİK) in Turkey with the same purpose. This study aims to investigate whether economic expectations in Germany, Turkey's most important foreign trade partner, affect expectations in Turkey. For this purpose, causality test developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and causality test developed by Hatemi-J (2012) were applied to monthly ZEW and EGE index data for 2007: 01-2019: 05 period. The results suggest that in case of worsening of expectations for the German economy expectations about the Turkish economy also worsen; however, positive expectations about the German economy always do not always lead to optimism in the Turkish economy.

Çalışmada konaklama fiyatları ve döviz kurlarının Türkiye’yi ziyaret eden turist sayılarına etkisi 2005:1-2018:6 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak aylık konaklama fiyat endeksi ve Türk Lirası’nın Türkiye’nin önemli kaynak pazarlarının paralarına karşı aylık ortalama nominal kurları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak Hacker amp; Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi ve seriler arasında asimetrik nedensellik analizleri için Hatemi-J(2012) bootstrap asimetrik nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre konaklama fiyatları ve Türkiye’ye olan turist akışı arasında %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde simetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ziyaretçi sayılarından Euro ve Pound kurlarına doğru simetrik nedensellik bulunmuştur. Çalışmada sadece ziyaretçi sayısındaki negatif şoklar ve Pound kurundaki pozitif şoklar arasında asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Bu bulgulara göre Türkiye’ye olan turist akışının sürdürülebilir olması için konaklama fiyatlarına dikkat edilmesi ve özellikle Birleşik Krallık’tan gelecek potansiyel turistler için pazarlama stratejileri üretirken Pound/TL kurunun dikkate alınması gerekmektedir.

The relationship between defense spending and economic growth is an active topic of debate for a long time. Defense spending may have negative consequences on the growth performance of developing countries in such conflict-ridden areas as the Middle East. This study is conducted to investigate the effects of defense spending on economic growth in a panel of twelve Middle Eastern countries over the period 1998-2012. The approach suggested by Swamy and Arora (1972) was employed for the empirical study. Findings of the empirical study suggest that defense spending has a negative effect on economic growth, which aggravates during times of internal and external conflicts.

The relationship between defense spending and economic growth is an active topic of debate for a long time. Defense spending may have negative consequences on the growth performance of developing countries in such conflict-ridden areas as the Middle East. This study is conducted to investigate the effects of defense spending on economic growth in a panel of twelve Middle Eastern countries over the period 1998-2012. The approach suggested by Swamy and Arora (1972) was employed for the empirical study. Findings of the empirical study suggest that defense spending has a negative effect on economic growth, which aggravates during times of internal and external conflicts. Keywords: Defense spending; economic growth; conflict; Middle East. JEL Classifications: E60; F52; H56

The relationship between defense spending and economic growth is an active topic of debate for a long time. Defense spending may have negative consequences on the growth performance of developing countries in such conflict-ridden areas as the Middle East. This study is conducted to investigate the effects of defense spending on economic growth in a panel of twelve Middle Eastern countries over the period 1998-2012. The approach suggested by Swamy and Arora (1972) was employed for the empirical study. Findings of the empirical study suggest that defense spending has a negative effect on economic growth, which aggravates during times of internal and external conflicts. Keywords: Defense spending; economic growth; conflict; Middle East. JEL Classifications: E60; F52; H56

The relationship between defense spending and economic growth is an active topic of debate for a long time. Defense spending may have negative consequences on the growth performance of developing countries in such conflict-ridden areas as the Middle East. This study is conducted to investigate the effects of defense spending on economic growth in a panel of twelve Middle Eastern countries over the period 1998-2012. The approach suggested by Swamy and Arora (1972) was employed for the empirical study. Findings of the empirical study suggest that defense spending has a negative effect on economic growth, which aggravates during times of internal and external conflicts. Keywords: Defense spending; economic growth; conflict; Middle East. JEL Classifications: E60; F52; H56