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Entrepreneurial teams assign equity positions in their start-ups using a term sheet that details equity splits and the conditions for being granted those splits. The design of equity split agreements has attracted considerable attention in the entrepreneurial community, with no convergence on a single preferred contract form. This paper experimentally examines the effectiveness of different contractual arrangements, focusing in particular on the effects of contract form and contracting timing on founder effort and on the value of the venture. Our results suggest that performance improves with the incentive strength of the contract, but they question the conventional logic that this effect is causal. Instead, we suggest a novel causal sequence. Rather than the contract form being the primitive and the behavior the derived consequence, our results suggest the reverse. The differences in contract performance are driven primarily by the sorting of high contributors into nonequal contracts and of low contributors into equal contracts; that is, equal contracts are bad for team performance not because of their incentive strength but because of the founder types that adopt them. Taken together, these results suggest that both investors and founders should pay as much (or more) attention to personality type as they do to contract form. This paper was accepted by Serguei Netessine, operations management.

Bringing a new product to market involves both a creative ideation stage and an execution stage. When time-to-market constraints are binding, important questions are how to divide limited time between the two stages and who should make this decision. We introduce a laboratory experiment that closely resembles this setting: it features a product development task with an open design space, a downstream cost increase, and two development stages. We show that performance is significantly worse when designers choose for themselves when to transition from ideation to execution and that decision control explains a large share of performance variation even after controlling for individual differences. How the time is allocated between ideation and execution does not affect mean performance, but later transition increases risk. One driver of poor design outcomes in the designer-initiated transition regime are delays in physical construction and testing of designs. We show that such delays can be prevented by “nudging” designers toward early prototyping. However, the most important performance driver is the lack of task structure in endogenous regimes, which can be remedied by demanding a concrete, performance-oriented deliverable prior to a transition. Data and the electronic companion are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2709 . This paper was accepted by Serguei Netessine, operations management.

We study experimentally bargaining in a multiple-tier supply chain with horizontal competition and sequential bargaining between tiers. Our treatments vary the cost differences between firms in tiers 1 and 2. We measure how these underlying costs influence the efficiency, negotiated prices, and profit distribution across the supply chain, as well as the consistency of these outcomes with existing theory. We find that the structural issue of cost differentials dominates personal characteristics in explaining outcomes, with profits in a tier generally increasing with decreased competition in the tier and increasing with decreased competition in alternate tiers. The balanced principal model of supply chain bargaining does a good job explaining our data, and it outperforms the common assumption of leader–follower negotiations. We find a significant anchoring effect from a firm’s first bid but no effect of the sequence of those bids, no evidence of failure to close via escalation of commitment, and mixed results for a deadline effect. We also find an interesting asymmetry between the buy and sell sides in employed bidding strategy. All firms make predominantly concessionary offers after the initial anchor; however, sell-side firms that engage in aggressive anticoncessionary bidding successfully increase prices while not compromising closure rates. Buy-side firms achieve much smaller price changes from anticoncessionary tactics and risk reduced closure, yielding no net benefit. This paper was accepted by Yossi Aviv, operations management.

Entrepreneurial teams assign equity positions in their startups using a term sheet that details equity splits and conditions for being granted those splits. It is conventional wisdom in the entrepreneurial press that equal splits are poor choices. The conventional logic is that by not connecting rewards to contribution level equal split contracts can encourage free-riding behaviors. We experimentally test this conventional wisdom, among other entrepreneurial contracting hypotheses. Our results confirm the relationship between equal splits and depressed effort and contribution, but suggest a different causal sequence relative to conventional wisdom. Rather than the contract form being the primitive and the behavior the derived consequence, our results suggest the reverse. The differences in contract performance are driven primarily by the sorting of high contributors into non-equal contracts and of low contributors into equal contracts. However, delaying the contracting mitigates these sorting effects, reducing the effort gap between contracts. Taken together, our results suggest that both investors and founders should pay as much (or more) attention to personality type as they do to contract form, but if one is stuck with a given set of personalities delayed contracting (more so than contract form) can improve performance.

Expanding hospital capacity by developing an observation unit may be an important strategy in congested hospitals. Understanding the principles for evaluating the potential impact and appropriate sizing of an observation unit is important. The objective of this paper is to contrast two approaches to determining observation unit sizing and profitability, real options, and a flow analysis based on Little’s Law. Both methods have validity and use similar data sets. The Little’s Law approach has the advantage of providing an estimate of appropriate size for the unit and a natural internal consistency check on data. The benefits of an observation unit can depend critically on assumptions regarding backfill patients, and minor changes in data or assumptions can translate into significant changes in annual financial consequences. Using both the real options and the Little’s Law approaches provides some internal consistency checks on data and assumptions. Both are sufficiently simple to be easily mastered and conducted. Using these two simple and accessible methods in parallel for computing the size and financial consequences for an observation unit is recommended. ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE 2011; 18:183–189 a 2011 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine

We consider a firm that designs a new product and wishes to bring it to market but does not have ownership or control over all of the resources required to make that happen. The firm must select and contract with one of several possible tier 1 suppliers for necessary inputs, who do the same with their (tier 2) suppliers, etc. This general situation is common in industry. We assume tier-wise negotiations, sole sourcing within each tier, complete local information, and horizontal competition. We develop a bargaining-based solution to the negotiations between two adjacent multifirm tiers and show its consistency with familiar solution concepts from the theories of bargaining and cooperative games. We then link up multiple bargaining modules to generate chainwide predictions for efficiency and profitability in supply chains with an arbitrary number of tiers and an arbitrary number of firms per tier. We investigate the implications of the results for investments in process improvements or supplier development.

Bringing a new product to market involves both a creative ideation stage, and an execution stage. When time-to-market constraints are binding it is an important question how to divide limited time between the two stages and who should make this decision. We introduce a laboratory experiment that closely resembles this setting: it features a product development task with an open design space, a downstream cost increase and two development stages. We show that performance is significantly worse when designers choose for themselves when to transition from ideation to execution and that decision control explains a large share of performance variation even after controlling for individual differences. How the time is allocated between ideation and execution does not affect mean performance, but later transition increases risk. One driver of poor design outcomes in the designer-initiated transition regime are delays in physical construction and testing of designs. We show that such delays can be prevented by "nudging" designers towards early prototyping. However, the most important performance driver is the lack of task structure in endogenous regimes, which can be remedied by demanding a concrete, performance-oriented deliverable prior to a transition.

Operations and Supply Chains is the current title for a department that has evolved through several different titles in recent years, reflecting its evolving mission from a focus on classical operations research at the time of ORSA's founding 50 years ago toward an embrace of a broader body of theory. Throughout this evolution, the focus on applied problems and the goal of improving practice through the development of suitable theory has remained constant The Operations and Supply Chains Department promotes the theory underlying the practice of operations management, which encompasses the design and management of the transformation processes in manufacturing and service organizations that create value for society. Operations is the function that is uniquely associated with the design and management of these processes. The problem domains of concern to the department have been, and remain, the marshalling of inputs, the transformation itself, and the distribution of outputs in pursuit of this value-creating end. Over the past 50 years the department has had a variety of titles, reflecting an evolving understanding of the boundaries of the operations function. In this article we celebrate past accomplishments, identify current challenges, and anticipate a future that is as exciting and opportunity-rich as any our field has seen.

In recent years, the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has deviated from its normal policy of correcting frost heaving and thawing problems on state highways. WSDOT’s traditional approach for frost design rehabilitation has been to place a crushed stone base at least half the depth of the frost penetration. This approach has served WSDOT well on the majority of its highway system; however, other measures were sought to mitigate extensive frost-related problems in northeast Washington. To isolate the flow of water from the pavement structure, a capillary break using a free-draining aggregate or “rock cap: layer was used on projects during the last 5 years. The rock cap material was a maximum 75-mm (3-in.) material with 0% to 15% passing a 12.5-mm (1/2-in.) sieve. The open-graded nature of the rock cap provides a positive drainage blanket so that excess water can be eliminated from the roadway structure, and thus eliminates frost-heaving and thaw-weakening problems. However, constructing with a large stone material presents special construction considerations, particularly pertaining to the stability of the material. WSDOT’s construction experience is detailed, and rock cap performance in Washington State is summarized.

A large midwestern hospital is expecting an increase in surgical caseload. New operating room (OR) capacity can be had by building new ORs or extending the working hours in the current ORs. The choice among these options is complicated by the fact that patients, surgeons and surgical staff, and hospital administrators are all important stakeholders in the health service operation, and each has different priorities. This paper investigates the trade-offs among three performance criteria (wait to get on schedule, scheduled procedure start-time reliability, and hospital profits), which are of particular importance to the different constituencies. The objective is to determine how the hospital can best expand its capacity, acknowledging the key role that each constituency plays in that objective. En route, the paper presents supporting analysis for process improvements and suggestions for optimal participation-inducing staff contracts for extending OR hours of operation.

The granular overlay system is an alternative type of overlay for rehabilitating mostly low-volume, rural pavements. The overlay consists of a layer of densely compacted, crushed stone overlaid by a generally thin surface layer (either a bituminous surface treatment or asphalt concrete). The Washington State Department of Transportation continues to be interested in these roadways because performance has been better than expected with rehabilitation survival lives doubling from 7 to 14 years with the addition of granular overlays. Previous attempts to backcalculate layer moduli and understand the structural characteristics of granular overlays were limited because of uncertainties associated with layer thicknesses. With known layer thicknesses obtained from four sites, backcalculation of granular overlay pavements was possible. These moduli along with straightforward performance information are used to characterize granular overlays.

The Quantity Flexibility (QF) contract is a method for coordinating materials and information flows in supply chains operating under rolling-horizon planning. It stipulates a maximum percentage revision each element of the period-by-period replenishment schedule is allowed per planning iteration. The supplier is obligated to cover any requests that remain within the upside limits. The bounds on reductions are a form of minimum purchase commitment which discourages the customer from overstating its needs. While QF contracts are being implemented in industrial practice, the academic literature has thus far had little guidance to offer a firm interested in structuring its supply relationships in this way. This paper seeks to address this need, by developing rigorous conclusions about the behavioral consequences of QF contracts, and hence about the implications for the performance and design of supply chains with linkages possessing this structure. Issues explored include the impact of system flexibility on inventory characteristics and the patterns by which forecast and order variability propagate along the supply chain. The ultimate goal is to provide insights as to where to position flexibility for the greatest benefit, and how much to pay for it.

In drug therapy, effective dosage strategies are needed to maintain target drug effects. The relationship between drug dose and drug effect is often described by pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models where typically the PK model has a multicompartment form and the PD model is the sigmoidal Emax model. The parameters in the PK/PD model are generally unknown in the individual patient, although prior knowledge may be available and can be updated after measurements of drug effect are taken during the therapy. This fact, together with the complexity of the PK/PD model, makes the control problem complex. This paper investigates several control strategies in the framework of a three-compartment PK model plus an effect site with a PD model. Using computer simulations under different assumptions, we show that a MAP (maximum a posteriori) Bayesian type of strategy is effective, nevertheless in high-risk situations a stochastic control strategy hedging against estimation errors provides better performance at computational cost.

In medical drug therapy, efficient dosage strategies are needed to maintain target drug concentrations. The relationship between the concentration of a drug and the dosages is often described by compartment models in which the parameters are unknown, although prior knowledge may be available and can be updated after blood samples are taken during the therapy. Currently MAP (maximum a posteriori) Bayesian is the most often used control strategy in this setting. We show by simulation in a one-compartment context that the performance of the MAP Bayesian strategy depends on the assumptions in prior distribution of the parameters as well as the cost function. We propose an alternative control strategy, VU, that outperforms and is more robust than the MAP Bayesian strategy in a variety of problem settings.

BACKGROUND: Academic medical centers (AMCs) have a constrained resident work force. Many AMCs have increased the use of nonresident service hospitalists to manage continued growth in clinical volume. To optimize their time in the hospital, it is important to understand hospitalists' work flow. DESIGN: We performed a time-motion study of hospitalists carrying the admission pager throughout the 3 types of shifts we have at our hospital (day shift, swing shift, and night shift). SETTING: Tertiary academic medical center in the Midwest. RESULTS: Hospitalists spend about 15% of their time on direct patient care, and two-thirds of their time on indirect patient care. Of the indirect activities, communication and documentation dominate. Travel demands make up over 7% of a hospitalists' time. There are spikes in indirect patient care, followed closely by spikes in direct patient care, at shift changes. CONCLUSIONS: At our AMC, indirect patient care activities accounted for the majority of the admitting hospitalists' time spent in the hospital, with documentation and communication dominating this time. Travel takes a significant fraction of hospitalists' time. There is also a cyclical nature to activities performed throughout the day, which can cause patient delays and impose variability on support services. There is a need for both service-specific and systemic improvements for AMCs to efficiently manage further growth in their inpatient volume. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2010;5:329–334. © 2010 Society of Hospital Medicine.

We consider a firm that designs a new product and wishes to bring it to market, but does not have ownership or control over all of the resources required to make that happen. The firm must select and contract with one of several possible tier 1 suppliers for necessary inputs, who do the same with their (tier 2) suppliers, etc. This general situation is common in industry. We assume tier-wise negotiations, sole sourcing within each tier, complete local information, and horizontal competition. We develop a bargaining-based solution to the negotiations between two adjacent multi-firm tiers and show its consistency with familiar solution concepts from the theories of bargaining and cooperative games. We then link up multiple bargaining modules to generate chain-wide predictions for efficiency and profitability in supply chains with an arbitrary number of tiers and an arbitrary number of firms per tier. We investigate the implications of the results for investments in process improvements or supplier development.

Motivated by supply competitions in the service sector, we consider a version of the Bertrand-Edgeworth game where capacitated suppliers compete in prices to serve a deterministic demand and a price cap is imposed exogenously. We characterize the equilibrium structure for games with multiple suppliers that are asymmetric in cost and capacity. A pure-strategy equilibrium exists only in special cases, otherwise a mixed-strategy equilibrium prevails. For a mixed-strategy equilibrium, we show there exists an anchoring supplier whose pricing range covers those of the other suppliers, and we pin down the lower and upper bounds of that price range. We derive a canonical closed-form solution for a set of games, and for other more general cases, we demonstrate a numerical scheme for equilibrium calculation. In contrast to a well-known intuition established in the existing literature, we identify a new equilibrium pricing structure in games with N >= 3 suppliers who have similar costs but different capacities: A low-capacity supplier's price distribution is more concentrated than those of its high-capacity competitors, by spanning a smaller interval. We demonstrate an interesting strategy for a buyer with a competitive supply base: Subsidizing a cost-competitive incumbent may reduce the total procurement cost.

This paper documents the process of supply chain formation to bring a new product to market, based on phone and personal interviews with supply chain professionals and consultants from a range of industries including but not restricted to high tech, consumer products and services, entertainment, food, furniture, family and entertainment, consulting and other b-to-b services, automotive, and large complex engineered products. Most of these interviews were conducted between September 2009 and January 2010, but some earlier interactions have been incorporated as appropriate. Potentially identifying information has been removed to preserve anonymity, which was promised to the respondents.

What lines of communication among members of an organization are most effective in the early, ideation phase of innovation? We investigate this question with a recombination and selection model of knowledge transfer operating through a social network. We measure cost in human time, and seek efficient social network structures in the time - total cost plane (minimize ideation time subject to an upper bound on total cost, or vice versa) and in the time - cost per period plane, with a similar interpretation. Our results suggest that efficiently innovative organizations look nothing like what one intuitively associates with standard formal organizations with strict and unchanging lines of communication, nor do they conform with what one might expect from static social network representations of communication patterns. Rather, ideation is accelerated when people dynamically churn through a large (ideally the entire population) set of conversational partners over time, which naturally begets short path lengths and eliminates information bottlenecks. In organizations with these features group meetings do not help and can hurt the process, because many parallel conversations can achieve the same or better results as one-to-many communications. A family of networks called the complete wheel-stars emerges as an important family on the time-cost efficient frontier. Wheel-star graphs have a completely connected clique of agents at the center, with all other agents connected to the core but not to each other; the star and the complete graph are its extreme elements. We discuss the consequences of these results for organizations and sociometric analyses.

International audience; In this third and final part of the series, we concentrate on the temporal behaviour of atmospheric passive scalars. We first recall that - although the full (x, y, z, t) turbulent processes respect an anisotropic scale invariance - that due to advection - the generator will generally not be a diagonal matrix. This implies that the scaling of (1-D) temporal series will generally involve three exponents in real space: 1/3, 1/2, 3/5, for spectra beta(tau) = 5/3, 2, 11/5, with the first and last corresponding to domination by advection (horizontal and vertical respectively), and the second to pure temporal development (no advection). We survey the literature and find that almost all the empirical beta(tau) values are indeed in the range 5/3 to 2. We then use meteorological analyses to argue that, although pure temporal development is unlikely to be dominant for time-scales less than the eddy turnover time of the largest structures (about 2 weeks), an intermittent vertical velocity could quite easily explain the occasionally observed beta(tau) approximate to 2 spectra. We then use state-of-the-art vertically pointing lidar data of backscatter ratios from both aerosols and cirrus clouds yielding several (z, t) vertical space - time cross-sections with resolution of 3.75 m in the vertical, 0.5 - 30 s in time and spanning 3 - 4 orders of magnitude in temporal scale. We first test the predictions of the anisotropic, multifractal extension of the Corrsin-Obukhov law in the vertical and in time, separately finding that the cirrus and aerosol backscatters both followed the theoretical (anisotropic) scalings accurately; three of the six cases show dominance by the horizontal wind, the others by the vertical wind. In order to test the theory in arbitrary directions in this (z, t) space, and in order to get more complete information about the underlying physical scale, we develop and apply a new Anisotropic Scaling Analysis Technique (ASAT) which is based on a nonlinear space - time coordinate transformation. This transforms the original differential scaling into standard self-similar scaling; there remains only a 'trivial' anisotropy. This method is used in real space on 2-D structure functions. It is applied to both the new (z, t) data as well as the (x, z) data discussed in part II. Using ASAT, we verify the theory to within about 10% over more than three orders of magnitude of space - time scales in arbitrary directions in (x, z) and (z, t) spaces. By considering the high- (and low-) order structure functions, we verify the theory for both weak and strong structures; as predicted, their average anisotropies are apparently the same. Putting together the results for (x, z) and (z, t), and assuming that there is no overall stratification in the horizontal ( x, y) plane, we find that the overall (x, y, z, t) space is found to have an effective 'elliptical dimension' characterizing the overall space - time stratification equal to D(eff,st) = 3.21 +/- 0.05. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.

The majority of papers on stochastic inventory theory make the assumption that the distribution of consumer demand in each time period is known with certainty. While this assumption is unsupported in many applied contexts, it is conventionally held that more realistic models are more difficult to solve and will not yield simple operational policies. This paper shows that a simple inventory policy based upon a critical fractile can be optimal or near-optimal in some inventory models with parameter adaptive demand processes. In these, some parameter of the demand distribution is not known with certainty, and estimates of the parameter are updated in a statistical fashion as demand is observed through time. Examples include exponentially smoothed forecasts and Bayesian updating of parameter estimates. Bounds on the value loss relative to optimal cost, when using the critical fractile policy, can be calculated directly from the problem data. Some numerical examples illustrate the technique.

This paper examines pre-auction investments made by asymmetric agents that compete for a supply contract from a monopolist principal. Agents are privately aware of their managerial efficiencies which determine how well they can leverage fixed investments to reduce their variable costs for servicing the contract, and they privately choose investment levels prior to the procurement mechanism being declared by the principal. Hence, the distribution of types that is standard in the principal-agent literature is, here, endogenously determined by the private actions of the agents. The principal declares a mechanism that is optimal for her, after agents have made their private investment decisions. We show that in equilibrium all optimal investment strategies by competing firms will have the form of investing as if there is no reservation price up to a critical level of managerial type, and investing minimally thereafter. This feature, however, implies that only trivial pure strategy equilibria can exist when the principal has any reasonably competitive alternative for servicing the contract. This is because in these cases an optimal mechanism induces agents to adopt a discontinuous investment strategy which provides the principal an incentive to deviate from the declared mechanism. An intuitive extrapolation of the extant literature to our context (in which agents adopt technologies featuring a fixed-variable cost trade-off) would suggest that we would see 'underinvestment', manifesting itself as lower fixed and higher variable cost technologies in the industry. However, this intuition is either sustained trivially or cannot be sustained in pure strategies when the principal has any reasonable outside options for supply. The question of what cost structure we will see in equilibrium in these contexts will require future effort, and a consideration of mixed strategies.

Regional anesthesia techniques are invaluable tools in the armamentarium of anesthesia practitioners. Utilization of visual and palpable anatomical landmarks in localizing deep-seated peripheral nerves has long been the mainstay of regional anesthesia. Accurate placement of local anesthetics is imperative to obtaining successful neural blockade. Disagreement exists concerning the utility of a peripheral nerve stimulator in nerve sheath location. Regardless of the technique used, anatomical landmarks and underlying structures need to be fully understood. Very little research exists addressing how best to instruct anesthesia students in regional nerve blockade. In this study, McAuliffe s (1993) model for advanced nursing practice education was used as a theoretical framework which describes the fact that multiple representations, or multiple attempts are required to obtain a level of proficiency. In this study, a student registered nurse anesthetist (SRNA) attempted to locate the sciatic nerve using anatomical landmarks on a rat model. The data revealed that 15 attempts were required before an appropriate level of proficiency was obtained.

Our group has been very active over the last year, analyzing a number of data sets to characterize multifractal cloud properties and assess the effects of clouds on surface radiation properties (spectral and broadband). The data sets analyzed include: AVHRR observations of clouds over the ocean, SPOT observations of clouds over the ocean, SSM/I observations of clouds over the ocean, pyranometer data with all-sky photographs, pyrgeometer data all-sky photographs, and spectral surface irradiance all-sky photographs. A number of radiative transfer computations have been performed to help in the interpretation of these observations or provide theoretical guidance for their analysis. Finally 4 number of radiative transfer models have been acquired and tested to prepare for the interpretation of ARM/CART data.

With the passage of the Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976, marine fisheries management in the United States was apportioned to one of eight quasi-public regional management councils, consisting of representatives from industry, consumers, and the state and federal governments. The management process is itself a bargaining game among council members and interested parties, with the goal of determining what regulations, if any, are appropriate to balance the various social, biological, economic, bureaucratic, and political agendas that impact, and are impacted by, the council decisions.

The increased complexity of pharmacotherapeutics and the expanded role of pharmacists in the drug-use process may bring about an increased liability exposure for failure to conform to a professional standard of care. Therefore, a survey of 51 state pharmacy practice acts was conducted: (1) to establish a nationwide statutory definition of pharmacy practice, and (2) to outline possible use of the statutes in civil and administrative law. Twenty percent of state statutes contain no definition of pharmacy practice. Of the remaining 41 states, dispensing (97.5 percent), compounding (92.5 percent), interpretation and evaluation of prescriptions (68.2 percent), and consultation (73 percent) are legally defined. Pharmacokinetic consultation, drug administration, pharmacist prescribing, and pharmaceutical research are defined in one, seven, four, and one state(s), respectively. Pharmacists may face legal responsibilities from both the courts and state boards of medical and pharmacy practice. Aggressively updating the statutes and regulations to reflect contemporary pharmacy practice may provide a mechanism for a defense in court litigation and regulatory action.

Fishery management problems are closely related to conventional types of production problems familiar to the OR analyst. In truth, the results of mathematical management models are seldom used directly to formulate policy, but the policy regimes suggested by such models have been adopted by policymakers. An example of this dynamic is the evolution of harvesting policy decisions. Approximating a problem to provide a bound on the optimal policy can suggest the appropriate policy regimes without incurring the calculational burden of an exact solution. A fleet allocation problem demonstrates this technique.

Since the initial report of treatment of tuberculous meningitis with streptomycin by Cooke, Dunphy and Blake, 1 the efficacy of this therapy has been confirmed by numerous authors, particularly Hinshaw, Feldman and Pfuetze 2 and Bunn. 3 However, it appears that the longer such patients are followed, the less impressive are the results. Probably the ultimate survival rate following streptomycin therapy is 5 to 10 per cent, and many of these patients have incapacitating neurologic residua. 4 We have had the opportunity of following a patient with tuberculous meningitis treated with streptomycin over a twenty-seven month period. He ultimately died of complications and reactivation of his infection. The case is of interest in that this patient was among the first to receive streptomycin therapy for tuberculous meningitis. Furthermore, the patient's prolonged survival and temporary clinical recovery illustrate the fallacy of attributing cures of this condition to streptomycin therapy when follow-up

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