Search

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) was the flagship hurricane model at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction for 16 years and a state-of-the-art tool for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction at the National Weather Service and across the globe. HWRF was a joint development between NOAA research and operations, specifically the Environmental Modeling Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Significant support also came from the National Hurricane Center, Developmental Testbed Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, universities, cooperative institutes, and the TC community. In the North Atlantic basin, where most improvement efforts focused, HWRF intensity forecast errors decreased by 45%-50% at many lead times between 2007 and 2022. These large improvements resulted from increases in horizontal and vertical resolution, as well as advances in model physics and data assimilation. HWRF intensity forecasts performed particularly well over the Gulf of Mexico in recent years, providing useful guidance for a large number of impactful landfalling hurricanes. Such advances were made possible not only by significant gains in computing but also through substantial investment from the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: HWRF is considered one of the most important and successful ocean-coupled, regional numerical weather prediction models. This work documents HWRF forecast performance for TCs in the North Atlantic since its operational inception (2007-22). Track, intensity, and storm size (wind radii) forecasts all showed significant error reductions and skill improvements, including 45%-50% lower intensity errors. HWRF intensity forecasts showed marked improvement for rapid intensification events, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where numerous impactful TCs made landfall throughout HWRF's lifetime. HWRF's impressive performance led to its expanded use as guidance for official TC forecasts and as a research tool across the TC community. These successes paved the way for NOAA's next-generation hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. KEYWORDS: Extreme events; Hurricanes/ typhoons; Tropical cyclones; Short-range prediction; Model evaluation/ performance; Numerical weather prediction/ forecasting, 1. Introduction (the rise of dynamical hurricane models at NOAA) Tropical cyclone (TC) forecast errors have markedly decreased over the past two decades, largely due to improved numerical weather prediction [...]

This paper provides an introduction to a new tool that is designed to provide operationally useful vulnerability information to National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs). The Brief Vulnerability Overview Tool (BVOT) is a shapefile containing local known, spatially specific, and weather-hazard-related vulnerabilities in a format that is easily integrated into the existing forecasting, warning, and decision support responsibilities and tasks of NWS WFO meteorologists. The methods for gathering vulnerability data and then building a BVOT for a WFO leverage and strengthen the relationships that NWS WFOs already have with their local emergency managers (EMs) and core partners to work together to identify operationally useful, local vulnerability knowledge. The BVOT is populated with discrete, known vulnerabilities to provide NWS meteorologists spatial situational awareness of those people, places, and things of greatest concern to their core partners. Crucially, the BVOT is a subsample of all potential vulnerabilities; its primary purpose is to make meteorologists aware of those weather-hazard-specific vulnerabilities that, as we posed to them, "keep them awake at night." Here, we describe the development of the BVOT as a social science-informed operational tool; how the BVOT methods have evolved and how it can be integrated into the culture of the NWS as a tool for building and maintaining relationships with partners; and how the BVOT is designed to be used and its impact on operational decision-making as observed in NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Operational meteorologists in the National Weather Service often rely on everyday knowledge of vulnerabilities to shape their messaging to communities threatened by hazardous weather. This study seeks to test methods that will permit meteorologists to work with local communities and emergency managers to collect knowledge about local vulnerabilities so that they can be formally shared and integrated into everyday operations. The results of this research provide an illustrative pathway demonstrating how social science-informed research can be used to improve meteorological operations. Future work should investigate how other findings from social science can be translated into real, operational impacts. KEYWORDS: Social science; Operational forecasting; Communication/ decision-making; Decision support; Vulnerability, 1. BVOT: An inductive approach to actionable vulnerability decision support The mission of the U.S. NWS is to "provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts, warnings, and impact-based decision support [...]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) has been providing national, regional, and local climate services for more than 20 years. The NWS climate services building blocks consist of service provision infrastructure, partnership and outreach, discovery of user needs and requirements, and service delivery at national, regional, local, and tribal levels. To improve services, the NWS climate services program accelerated user engagement through customer surveys, workshops, and collaborations. Since 2002, the annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop has developed a community of climate information producers and users through sharing of climate science applications, decision support tools, and effective communication practices. Although NWS had been producing operational climate monitoring and prediction products for several decades, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (U.S. Public Law 115-25) specifically mandated that NWS deliver services at subseasonal to seasonal time scales, including periods from two weeks to two years. Looking ahead, both the Department of Commerce (DOC) and NOAA have included climate services in their new 2022-26 strategic plans, including DOC's goal to address the climate crisis through mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts and NOAA's initiatives to build a Climate Ready Nation (CRN). The NWS Climate Services Program supports these strategic goals and CRN initiatives through integrating climate information into Impact-based Decision Support Services, the most critical element for implementation of the NWS strategy for a Weather-Ready Nation. This includes application of state-of-the-art climate monitoring and prediction products to the most societally relevant impacts while empowering regional and local climate delivery of enhanced services. KEYWORDS: Climate; Climate records; Climate services; Decision making; History; Societal impacts, 1. History of the NWS regional and local climate services The year 2023 marked the twentieth anniversary of the regional and local climate services infrastructure established in the National Oceanic [...]

Recycling PET bottles has set a standard for other industries, but PET thermoforms are still gaining momentum. This industry segment is paving the way for a new landscape in PET [...]

Abstract The Affordable Care Act (ACA) included financial and regulatory incentives and goals for states to bolster their health insurance rate review programs, increase their anticipated loss ratio requirements, expand [...]

Abstract States increasingly use managed care for Medicaid enrollees, yet evidence of its impact on health care outcomes is mixed. This research studies county-level Medicaid managed care (MMC) penetration and [...]

Abstract The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) implemented hierarchical condition category (HCC) models in 2004 to adjust payments to Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to reflect enrollees' expected health [...]

There is no doubt that the global image of the United States is not what it once was. Over the past eight years, the Bush Administration's foreign policies--Iraq, the war [...]

The Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act of 2003 (the FACT Act) directed several federal agencies to conduct studies related to the credit reporting industry. A primary concern was the [...]

The phenomenon of proliferation of preferential trade agreements, bilaterally and regionally, was particularly more pronounced both in the aftermath of the regional financial and economic crisis that affected East Asia in 1997-98 and in the inability of the WTO to yield any substantial outcome to improve growth prospects of the Asian economies. This paper analyses the implications of ASEAN's ongoing FTAs and examines its role in fostering deeper economic integration within ASEAN and in Asia. It analyses the evolution and characteristics of FTA proliferation in ASEAN, identifying major trends. The paper argues that in their present state, if not properly designed and managed, there are valid concerns that these FTAs could end up becoming a stumbling block towards integration efforts. Implementation integrity among FTA members therefore remains a key to its success, and empirical and policy research needs to be much more forthcoming in this area in order to fully understand the economic ramifications of these FTAs. Keywords: Free trade agreements, economic integration, ASEAN., I. Introduction While a contentious debate continues to stall the multilateral trade talks at the World Trade Organization (WTO), a plethora of bilateral and regional trading and economic cooperation agreements [...]

Nine hundred seventy-five million people are hungry in the world today, up from 852 million in 2003-2005, and 820 million in 1996. Previous policies have failed. The world food crisis, [...]

TANF Accomplishments In 1996, Congress and the White House agreed to 'end welfare as we know it' and passed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. This landmark legislation [...]

The role and powers of the president have come under increasing scrutiny since the tragic events of September 11. While the current political debate is focused on the unilateral actions [...]

I. Introduction and Summary In January 2007 at the Cebu Summit, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) committed to establish the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015, five years [...]

DEBORAH PLATT MAJORAS, the chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC, the leading U.S. consumer protection agency), from 2004 to 2008, stepped down from her job at the end of [...]

The economic upswing since the summer of 2003 has been stronger and lasted longer than projected by Norges Bank. Growth in the mainland economy in 2007 was the highest since [...]

READERS OF THIS JOURNAL are probably aware that in a judgement issued in June 2007, Health Services and Support--Facilities Subsector Bargaining Association v. British Columbia, (1) the Supreme Court of [...]

Financial institutions are now crossing national borders within the EU. In balancing member states' desires for sovereignty against the effectiveness of the financial safety net, banks are currently all chartered [...]

Growth in the mainland economy in 2006 was appreciably higher than projected by Norges Bank and it is likely that the output gap was also more positive than projected. At [...]

We estimate racial differences in the Social Security Administration's (SSA) decision to award federal disability benefits using newly available data, multivariate econometric models, and Oaxaca decomposition methods. We focus on the appellate level of SSA's disability decision-making process. We find that for claimants represented by attorneys there is no statistically significant difference in benefit award rates between whites and African-Americans. However, for claimants without attorney representation, we find sizable and significant differences between whites and African-Americans. (JEL J15, H53), I. INTRODUCTION The Social Security Administration (SSA) administers the two largest federal programs providing cash assistance to people with disabilities, the Disability Insurance (DI) program, and the Supplemental Security Income [...]

IN JANUARY 2007, as the world's media focused on the latest dire warnings about climate change coming from leading scientists meeting in Paris, another conference passed relatively unnoticed. Called the [...]

Policymaking at the Fed and Fed watching by the markets have changed dramatically over the past 30 years. In the 1970s, targets and instruments shifted constantly, and the prevalent belief [...]

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals [...]

Uncertainty, complexity, and rapid change will increasingly characterize humanitarian threats in the foreseeable future. These threats may range from the prospect of the 320-meter asteroid 99942 Apophis crashing into the [...]

When the French and Dutch referenda on the European Constitution failed in late spring 2005, Luxembourg held the rotating presidency of the European Union. A few days later, while chairing [...]

PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON CREATED THE Environmental Protection Agency and Congress passed the Clean Air Act in 1970 because the public demanded protection. The pollution that worried voters most was lead [...]

Introduction Trend GDP growth has assumed an importance in the public debate not least because the decomposition of GDP into trend and cyclical components lies at the heart of the [...]

Abstract This paper examines the revenue-smoothing hypothesis, which posits that an optimizing government will adjust both taxes and inflation to meet shocks to government spending. Our contribution is to examine [...]

This article argues that an independent central bank is not in itself sufficient to ensure the long-term success and stability of the economy. While there are strong academic arguments for [...]

Readers' advisory services have seen a renaissance over the past two decades. Librarians across the country have been examining new ways to connect readers with books and to build a [...]

What roles, if any, do academic librarians assume within engaged colleges and universities? In 1999, Sarah Ann Long, then president of the American Library Association (ALA), chose 'Libraries Build Community' [...]

THE SARBANES-OXLEY ACT OF 2002 (SOX), in which Congress introduced a series of corporate governance initiatives into the federal securities laws, is not just a considerable change in law, but [...]

This paper analyzes U.S. airline price and passenger data disaggregated at the fare class level for the year 2000. We find that although average prices to and from most airlines' hubs tend to be higher than those throughout the remainder of their systems, much of the difference can be explained by passenger mix (i.e., the proportion of leisure versus business passengers). Our results suggest, therefore, that many of the reported 'hub premiums' in the previous literature may be overstated. JEL Classification: L11, L93, 1. Introduction One of the most actively debated issues in the U.S. airline industry since its deregulation in 1978 has centered around the prices charged by network airlines for service [...]

When the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1972 that the First Amendment doesnt protect reporters from testifying before criminal grand juries, Justice Byron White wrote that recognizing such a privilege [...]

DURING THE FORMATIVE YEARS OF THE Internet, thousands of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) offered dial-up service to dispersed telephone subscribers over traditional telephone lines. Over time, the service became concentrated [...]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of Commerce produces national, regional, industry, and international economic accounts that present essential information on such key issues as economic growth, [...]

IN ITS WANING DAYS AFTER THE 2000 ELECTION, the Clinton administration decided to initiate an expensive plan to regulate mercury emissions from power plants. The decision culminated a lengthy process [...]

The Commission of the European Communities et al. (1993), on behalf of the United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund (1993) developed international guidelines for macroeconomic accounts. They recommended the [...]

Within the context of a practical framework for safeguarding financial stability--entailing both prevention and resolution--this paper discusses the practical boundaries and challenges of assessing financial stability. The paper characterises the [...]

This articles tests the implications the Grossman and Helpman 'protection for sale' model. The goal is to address some of the problems associated with previous empirical studies. These problems are addressed using a data set derived from decisions reached by the president in cases involving product or beneficiary eligibility under the Generalized System of Preferences. The results provide some support for the Grossman and Helpman model, but they also indicate that factors not accounted for in this model play an important role in GSP eligibility decisions. (JEL F13, F14), I. INTRODUCTION During the past decade, several new models of the political economy of trade policy emerged. Most notable among these is the Grossman and Helpman (1994) 'protection for sale' [...]

A contingent valuation mail survey was administered in late 2001 to better understand current public opinion about controversial endangered species preservation in Orange County, California. Questionnaire design focused on additional taxes residents would be willing to pay to support recovery plans. Habitat and recovery of a single species, the Riverside fairy shrimp, is valued at around $25 per household, and the valuation is significantly changed by the higher scope of the public good provided, with an annual willingness-to-pay of around $50-60 per household for all local endangered species. Across the whole county, the public valuation of biodiversity is substantial yet probably could not fund necessary land acquisition for critical habitat, so continued national support for species preservation remains logical. (JEL Q51, Q57, Q58), I. INTRODUCTION Biological diversity has become a controversial issue in Orange County, California. Recent Endangered Species Act (ESA) critical habitat designations covering some 85,000 acres in the county have been [...]

This article uses daily data on stock returns of five U.S. publicly traded cigarette producers to document the wealth effects of antismoking policies initiated in the period 1964 to 1971. The authors find significant abnormal returns across 23 dates corresponding to important regulatory events. The second-stage estimation shows that wealth effects are also influenced by firm characteristics, such as market share, advertising intensity, percentage of sales of filter-tip cigarettes, percentage of advertising expenditures devoted to TV and radio, and tobacco leaf inventories. Overall, the article estimates that industry losses from antismoking policies amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. (JEL L66, G14, I18), I. INTRODUCTION Although tobacco smoking was touted in earlier years as an aid for a variety of ailments, in light of the medical evidence on the detrimental health effects of [...]

FIRST AMENDMENT ANALYSES OF MEDIA regulation have long focused on government efforts to influence media content directly, either by imposing restrictions on disfavored speech (such as indecency,) or by mandating [...]

Governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets to guarantee loans made by financial institutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The most active loan guarantee program in [...]

The European single currency, the euro, has become a visible and successful token of Europeans' drive towards unification. It was born in an era in which high-speed structural change tests [...]

I. Introduction My prior article in this symposium (Kaufman, 2004a) evaluated trade unionism through the lens of modern economic theory; this paper pursues the same tact but through the lens [...]

As part of the movement to create greater spending equity among school districts, states have centralized funding for public education and instituted funding formulas where high-spending districts are often constrained in their operational expenditures. However, these school districts often maintain local discretion over capital expenditures financed by the sale of bonds. In this study, we find that Michigan's high-spending school districts have a greater probability of issuing bonds after centralizing public school funding, indicating that debt financing of capital expenditures may have become a mechanism to allow these school districts to circumvent the policy's intent for greater spending equity. JEL Classification: 122, 128, 1. Introduction In an effort to create greater equity among school districts, a number of states have shifted the responsibility for school funding from local school districts to the state. [...]

As is the case for many different goods and services, it is common practice in many real estate markets for sellers to offer properties for sale at listing prices just [...]