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Greater efforts are needed to bridge the emission gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and the objective to limit climate change below 2°C. This paper focuses on four European-Union countries: Germany, France, Poland and UK that represent on aggregate 55% of current EU emissions. It analyses national mitigation strategies produced by national research teams in the framework of the COP21_RIPPLES project and compatible with a long-term objective leading to a well below 2°C target either as part of an ambition in 2030 limited to that of the NDCs, or as part of more ambitious early action. We use the decarbonization wedges methodology, an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. This makes it possible to assess the priorities for action to strengthen the NDCs. The article also highlights the impact sectoral growth dynamics have on the emission trajectories and the resulting necessary mitigation efforts.

International audience; Renewable energy (RE) technologies for electricity generation are a central pillar of energy sector decarbonisation strategies worldwide. Public policies to promote their diffusion have been in place in developed economies since 1980, and, since the 2000s, a growing number of emerging countries began implemented such policies. The Latin American countries have been proactive in RE promotion, but few attempts have been made to evaluate the results. This article proposes an econometric analysis of the effectiveness of RE policies, based on panel data for 20 Latin American and 30 European countries, over 20 years. The results converge for the influence of promotion policies in general: they have a positive and statistically significant effect on RE investment, being the principal determinant in both regions. Nevertheless, on their own, tax incentives are insufficient to assure the deployment of RE technologies. This article also highlights specificities in policy approaches and motivations across both regions and explains why auction became the main instrument in Latin American countries.

International audience; The new bottom-up approach of the Paris agreement calls for a better understanding of the domestic dimension of development pathways and of the implications for global emissions trajectory. To this end, it is of strategic importance to provide a common framework that makes it possible to identify the key decarbonization wedges at the national level and to highlight the potential benefits of international cooperation. The article proposes an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology based on sectoral energy service indicators and on a specific decomposition in the power sector for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. It is applied to national deep decarbonization pathways elaborated in the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) by the sixteen largest GHG emitting countries. In a global perspective, the results reveal the key role of energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy carriers in the industry sector, deployment of renewables in the power sector and, to a lesser extent, coal/gas substitution, and efficiency and energy decarbonization in the transport sector. The analysis also calls for a deeper understanding of the role a reduction in energy-service demand can play in mitigation scenarios and of the respective contribution for industry of energy efficiency and structural change.

http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TVUC3QCo9JMWa free till september 25th; International audience; Urban and energy transitions are increasingly seen as being deeply intertwined. The way this relation impacts our approach to energy transition is a current issue for research. Implementing renewable energy sources in built-up areas challenges incumbent supply chains and large technical systems, especially for electricity, gas and heat. Approaches to transition such as the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) highlight the transformation of socio-technical regimes but have been criticised for overstating stability of regime and for overlooking spatial (and consequently urban) processes. Other concepts are required in order to understand local and non-local relationships between niches and regimes. This paper suggests a constructivist and pragmatic concept for urban energy transition, the Socio-Energetic Node (SEN), thanks to which actors and artefacts can be traced within energy networks. The SEN is a group of elements, which collects, converts and/or supplies energy, built by a decision-maker interacting with stakeholders and regime rules. Having identified SENs in four French eco-districts, we observed how they took shape around continuous energy flows and across decision-making boundaries, highlighting how spatial-scale and place-specificity impact on energy transition.

This paper summarises the major recommendations and conclusions of the third Forum of the European Network on Energy Research (ENER) which took place in June 2002 in Budapest. The major perceptions of this meeting as well as the most important conclusions and recommendations for energy policy makers are compiled in this summary. The statements compiled in the following represent a consensus within the ENER Network while on some questions differences in perception and analysis persisted.

Now that the risks of climate change have been confirmed and the European States have declared their willingness to pursue ambitious objectives for producing electricity from renewable energy sources, it becomes crucial to take a look at the relative efficiency of the different incentive schemes used. Such schemes may focus on quantities—defining national targets and setting up bidding systems, or quota systems providing for green certificate trading—, or they may focus on prices—feed-in tariffs. Clearly, these instruments are much the same as those used in environmental policies, with similar discussion involved in their choice. Whatever the system chosen, the role of the public authorities is quite specific: to stimulate technical progress and speed up the technological learning processes so that ultimately renewable energy technologies will be able to compete with conventional technologies, once the environmental costs have been internalised. A comparison of instruments must thus take into account the characteristics of the innovation process and adoption conditions—uncertainties regarding cost curves, learning effects—which means also looking at dynamic efficiency criteria. The authors examine the efficiency of the different incentive schemes for the development of renewable energy sources, both from a theoretical point of view by comparing price-based approaches with quantity-based approaches, and from a practical point of view by looking at concrete examples of how these different instruments have been implemented. The paper concludes that a system of feed-in tariffs is more efficient than a bidding system, but highlights the theoretical interest of green certificate trading which must be confirmed through practice, given the influence of market structures and rules on the performance of this type of approach.

International audience; This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

PV technology is of major interest for the energy sector because it offers the possibility of generating renewable electricity, using a resource that is widely available throughout the world, and without producing noticeable environmental externalities. The performance of the technology has progressed significantly over the last 20 years, thanks to learning effects, which have enabled PV diffusion to be extended beyond the initial niche markets. If this learning process can be maintained, PV may become an efficient technology for electricity generation and contribute to a sustainable world energy supply. Different technologies are competing in the production of PV cells. This paper analyses the mechanisms whereby one technology (crystalline silicon) has become established in a dominant position by using a knowledge base shared with the electronic components industry. The increasing diffusion of PV applications in new market segments as a result of public policies is then discussed, along with the resulting reinforcing mechanisms in favor of silicon technology. Given the limited progress margins remaining on this technological trajectory, a discussion is finally presented of new, more promising PV technologies and their possibilities for overcoming this lock-in situation and extending the current PV learning process.

In the household electrical appliances sector, the purchasing behaviour of the consumers is sensitive to different attributes (price, brand, aesthetics, appliance features, etc.), but rarely to the energy-efficiency criterion. This represents a strong constraint to the diffusion of efficient appliances. In this paper, the authors present the main types of instruments used to compensate for this apparent lack of concern, through actions stimulating demand or encouraging the supply of more efficient products. International experience in lighting or electrical appliances sectors is investigated as well as French programmes. The conclusion insists on the complementary nature between these different instruments and suggests to combine them according to the existing industrial, technological or competitive contexts.

International audience; The HyFrance Group was originally formed in France to support the European project HyWays, by providing (former projects HyFrance1 and HyFrance2) the French data and possible hydrogen pathways according to the national specificities. HyFrance3 is a new project that focuses on the economic competitiveness of differents teps of the hydrogen chain, from the production to the end use, at the time horizon of 2030 in France. HyFrance3 is a 10 partners' project coordinated by the CEA. The project addresses the present and future French hydrogen industrial markets for chemical and refinery uses, the analysis of the interplay between wind energy production and storage of hydrogen for different automotive requirements (refuelling stations, biofuel plants, Hydrogen/Natural Gas mix), the massive hydrogen storage to balance various supply and demand characteristics, and the supply network (pipeline option competitiveness vs. trucked in supply) to distribute hydrogen in a French region for automotive applications. Technical and economical issues are addressed. The future industrial hydrogen demand in France will be over 106 t/year ca. 2030, and could be doubled if there is a use for reduction in the steel industry. If hydrogen is produced by electrolysis from wind energy systems, the costs vary from ca. 4 to 20 €/kg, depending strongly on the type of demand and the connexion rate to the grid. At a French regional scale, hydrogen use for transports needs mass storage (at least 103 t) to balance a constant supply and a seasonal demand, the corresponding transport and distribution up to 2050 require pipelines and the costs could be limited to the reasonable values ca.0.4-0.6 €/kg.

International audience; Wind-generated electricity is often considered a particularly promising option for producing hydrogen from renewable energy sources. However, the economic performances of such systems generally remain unclear because of unspecified or favorable assumptions and operating conditions. The aim of this paper is to clarify these conditions by examining how the hydrogen produced is used. The analysis that has been conducted in the framework of the HyFrance 3 project concerns hydrogen for transport applications. Different technical systems are considered such as motorway hydrogen filling stations, Hythane®-fueled buses or second-generation biofuels production, which present contrasted hydrogen use characteristics. This analysis reveals considerable variations in hydrogen production costs depending on the demand profiles concerned, with the most favorable configurations being those in which storage systems are kept to a minimum.

International audience

International audience; The aim of the present paper is to analyse the effect of electricity sector liberalisation on the development of distributed generation, and more specifically to examine the conditions in which these new electricity generating technologies can be diffused in a liberalised framework. The paper looks first at how competition has affected the electricity market. This analysis is followed by an examination of the problems of inte-grating distributed generation into electricity systems. In the third part of the paper, three brief case studies highlight the principal differences between Germany, the United Kingdom and France in the field of distrib-uted generation. This brief analysis reveals that the institutional framework in which distributed generation must operate and the price signals given to electricity sector actors play as big a part as traditional incentives, certificates, bidding systems or guaranteed feed-in tariffs in driving the deployment process.

Without reinforced energy saving policies, residential consumption of electricity will increase sharply over the next 20 years, in particular, as a result of expected growth in the specific uses of electricity. The main problem is not a lack of energy-efficient technologies, which do indeed exist for electrical appliances, but one of slow diffusion of existing technologies due to the weakness of the price signal and the purchasing behaviour of consumers. In association with energy labelling, minimum energy performance standards have proved to be very effective in stimulating technological progress and organising market transformation. But standards also suffer from long and often difficult implementation periods because of the resistance of the industrial sector. For manufacturers, similar results could be obtained more easily and more rapidly with voluntary agreements because they introduce flexibility margins in the achievement of commitments. This paper analyses the specific advantages of voluntary agreements for improving energy efficiency in the domestic appliances sector. We conclude that voluntary agreements may be an effective instrument for market transformation in certain conditions, but the alternative of regulatory measures must remain a credible, realistic threat if voluntary agreements are to have a really significant impact on performance improvement.

The emergence of a new lighting technology in the residential sector at the beginning of the 1980s has created a situation of technological competition with an existing and mature technology. Despite specific advantages in terms of durability and energy efficiency, the new compact fluorescent lamp faced numerous adoption barriers when introduced on the market. Further improvement of performance and characteristics has been necessary to reduce these barriers and establish a solid driving force for dissemination. The authors point out the importance of public programmes in this respect, which created initial niche markets and allowed a technological learning process to become established.

There has been a sharp downturn in the building of electricity production and distribution facilities in sub-Saharan Africa due to economic and financial constraints. In part this was due to the steady decline in GDP in sub-Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s. The slackening growth of demand and the continuing decline in existing generating capacity have led to a shift in emphasis towards the restructuring of electricity companies, management improvements and the rehabilitation of existing plants rather than new investment in production and distribution facilities. Nevertheless, valid doubts remain as to the ability of the African electricity sector to mobilize sufficient resources in the medium term to ensure its development.

Selected papers from 4th ULCOS SEMINAR, October 2008; Modeling activities and scenario building are at the heart of the economic analysis delivered by the ULCOS program. Two main objectives were followed in the framework of SP9. First the modeling team had to provide a set of coherent energy economic scenarios using POLES model. Second, the economic conditions for the emergence of the ULCOS technologies were analyzed. ULCOS contributes to the elaboration of contrasted scenarios that the steel industry could face in the long term. To aim at these objectives specific tools have been used: POLES model for the global energy system modeling and ISIM model for the steel sector based prospective ([1] Hidalgo, 2003). The most promising steel production technologies identified in ULCOS Phase 1 have been introduced into ISIM as generic technologies. ISIM was then integrated as a module into POLES modeling system. The main model outputs are the energy prices and mixes and the steel sector balances with a focus on the technology mix. Actually the climate policy scenarios developped in project allow making recommendations to the steel industry in terms of sustainable development but also in terms of business strategy.