1. Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA
- Author
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jimi adams, Jude Bayham, Olivia Zarella, Meghan N. Buran, Rachel Herlihy, Andrea G. Buchwald, Elizabeth J. Carlton, David M. Bortz, Jonathan M. Samet, Kathryn L. Colborn, and Debashis Ghosh
- Subjects
Microbiology (medical) ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Colorado ,Epidemiology ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,coronaviruses ,Disease ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 ,medicine.disease_cause ,law.invention ,respiratory infections ,law ,Pandemic ,medicine ,Humans ,viruses ,Baseline (configuration management) ,Pandemics ,Coronavirus ,real time ,business.industry ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Public health ,Social distance ,Research ,social distancing ,COVID-19 ,infectious disease transmission ,mobility ,United States ,zoonoses ,Infectious Diseases ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Policy ,coronavirus disease ,Medicine ,business ,Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA ,mathematical models ,Demography ,severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 - Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USAâspecific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus diseaseârelated policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During MarchâJune 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs. Early coronavirus disease policy measures, including a stay-at-home order, were accompanied by substantial decreases in mobility and reduced the effective reproductive number well below 1. When some restrictions were eased in late April, mobility increased to near baseline levels, but transmission remained low (effective reproductive number
- Published
- 2021